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Mild Januaries followed by cold Februaries - examples??


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Well it looks most likely yet again we will see a mild January followed in the main by a mild February, unless we see some major change come middle of month, which doesn't look very likely - not to say we won't see a colder period before month is out..

Any one have any stats last time we had a notably mild Jan, say 5 degrees or more, followed by a colder than average February?

I can't think of many examples, 1983 one case, 2018 though possibly.. we know that was only thanks to a SSW. Indeed would be good to know whether the Feb followed a SSW in January.

Mild Jan's and mild Feb's tend to go hand in hand..

Indeed the strongest couplings tend to be Jan and Feb, as well as July and August it seems.

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12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Well it looks most likely yet again we will see a mild January followed in the main by a mild February, unless we see some major change come middle of month, which doesn't look very likely - not to say we won't see a colder period before month is out..

Any one have any stats last time we had a notably mild Jan, say 5 degrees or more, followed by a colder than average February?

I can't think of many examples, 1983 one case, 2018 though possibly.. we know that was only thanks to a SSW. Indeed would be good to know whether the Feb followed a SSW in January.

Mild Jan's and mild Feb's tend to go hand in hand..

Indeed the strongest couplings tend to be Jan and Feb, as well as July and August it seems.

I remember Jan 1994 being very zonal and Feb 1994 being a very Easterly month with a lot of snow events but not sure the stats will show this as new years day and early Jan was cold and snowy and there was a toppler in the middle and also the beginning of Feb was very mild and the switch to very cold weather didn't happen until about a third of the way through the month.

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I remember Jan 1994 being very zonal and Feb 1994 being a very Easterly month with a lot of snow events but not sure the stats will show this as new years day and early Jan was cold and snowy and there was a toppler in the middle and also the beginning of Feb was very mild and the switch to very cold weather didn't happen until about a third of the way through the month.

Yes Jan 94 was relatively mild, but possibly not in the 5 above category. Feb 94 did bring some cold weather, but not until mid-month, it did hold for quite a while, becoming milder tail end - but not on the severe side.

Feb 05 had the easterly arrived a couple of weeks earlier would have seen a major flip from a very mild Jan, to cold Feb, alas the cold arrived rather late and was quite tame, though it was sustained through first part of March.

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2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes Jan 94 was relatively mild, but possibly not in the 5 above category. Feb 94 did bring some cold weather, but not until mid-month, it did hold for quite a while, becoming milder tail end - but not on the severe side.

Feb 05 had the easterly arrived a couple of weeks earlier would have seen a major flip from a very mild Jan, to cold Feb, alas the cold arrived rather late and was quite tame, though it was sustained through first part of March.

Feb 1994 did have a severe spell but very short, an Ice day on a monday followed by a dumping across a huge swathe of the country overnight into Tuesday - the -14c isotherm did pay kent a visit.

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Having a quick look at the top 10 warmest mean temp Januaries for here -  East Scotland and the ones that were followed by cooler / colder Februaries 

Jan 1916 4.8 C tied 2nd warmest followed by February 1.3 C 

Jan 1898 4.8 C tied with 1916 followed by February 2.0 C 

Jan 1983 3.9 C (6th warmest) followed by February 0.1 C 

Jan 1890 3.6 C (tied 8th warmest) followed by February 1.7 C

Jan 1944 3.5 C (tied 9th warmest) followed by February 2.0 C 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Having a quick look at the top 10 warmest mean temp Januaries for here -  East Scotland and the ones that were followed by cooler / colder Februaries 

Jan 1916 4.8 C tied 2nd warmest followed by February 1.3 C 

Jan 1898 4.8 C tied with 1916 followed by February 2.0 C 

Jan 1983 3.9 C (6th warmest) followed by February 0.1 C 

Jan 1890 3.6 C (tied 8th warmest) followed by February 1.7 C

Jan 1944 3.5 C (tied 9th warmest) followed by February 2.0 C 

 

 

 

Thanks for these, marked difference CET value for 1916 then which was 7.5 degrees! Interesting to note there have been a few, but not for quite some time, as expected 1983 in the list.

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Just now, damianslaw said:

Thanks for these, marked difference CET value for 1916 then which was 7.5 degrees! Interesting to note there have been a few, but not for quite some time, as expected 1983 in the list.

If I get more time at some point I will try and find some others (if there are any). ?

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Haven't got the stats to hand but January 1969 was a very mild month but February 1969 was very cold with severe frost and multiple snow events.

Anyone got the stats?

Either way this year ain't going to follow suite as all the background signals are against a switch, we should maybe be looking for very mild winters followed by a cold snowy March like 1975 which has a lower CET than all 3 winter months. I remember the Great Birmingham Snowstorm of Maundy Thursday that year (27th March) , absolute classic.

Andy

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Two examples that I can think of where a mild January has been followed by a really cold February; 1969 Jan 5.5, Feb 1.0; 1983 Jan 6.7, Feb 1.7. Both of those Januarys are well into the mild category; 1983 notably so.  Although less significant 1994 had a fairly mild January (5.3) and was followed by a colder February (3.2).  2018 also had a fairly mild January (5.3) and was also followed by a colder February (2.9).  Another similar example to this could be 1932 (Jan 6.3, Feb 2.9).  The warmest January on record in 1916 (7.5) was followed by a much closer to average February (3.8) which although not that cold, was certainly a much colder month in comparison to the January it followed.  Although 1969 and 1983 are very rare examples of getting a really cold February after a very mild     January.  Generally a very mild January like we are just finishing now tend to be followed by a February being average to mild.

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12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Thanks for these, marked difference CET value for 1916 then which was 7.5 degrees! Interesting to note there have been a few, but not for quite some time, as expected 1983 in the list.

London figures supplied by J H Brazell for the period from 1900 to 1964 include Jan / Feb differences from average:

1902  + 2.2 / - 4.0

1916 + 6.3 / + 0.3 (note the + figure for London for Feb)

1932 + 4.1 / - 2.0

1944 + 4.4 / - 0.8

1956 + 0.6 / - 8.0

 

 

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