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Are these tempreatures an actual realistic estimate of 2050?


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46 minutes ago, qwertyK said:
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This natural event can have big implications for the weather.

It was weak, but it could still be a factor.

And whilst heatwaves were bad in Europe last year, in the UK summer was actually only the 11th warmest. 

Action now probably won't have a massive mpact on 2050. It will impact later. There are billions of tonnes of carbon stored in the atmosphere, it takes hundreds of years for it to be lost. 

Sorry I always use the Australian measures which are more rigorous than NOAA are with theirs (I had all of this in the run up to the last Nino up on the old ENSO Watch thread?) and so never went above advisory before it fell back into Nada  

WWW.BOM.GOV.AU

The current state of the Pacific and Indian Ocean, and influences on Australian climate.

 

I do think we need to get carbon out of the atmosphere and levels down below 350ppm so not only do we need to crack in with becoming Carbon neutral we need to crack on with Carbon capture!

There is just no way that a Capitalist world governed by Billionaires will see such take place....... they have their bunkers/provisions so will just bug out when things get proper bad (they will do the same if 2019nCoV turns bad?)

As for our current loading? Well remember there is an amount of 'instant warming' waiting to be revealed once we cut our dirty emissions ( particulate and sulphate) so if we do rapidly decarbonise the world we will see temps 'normalise' to where they would be without 'Global Dimming'?

And so around we go again with us triggering the loss of sea ice/melting the permafrost so warming us and flooding us with CO2/CH4 from the rotting permafrost reserves......

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Except it's increased by 1.0C in that time, 0.2C per decade.  Certainly does go against the narrative some people tell themselves.

You could speculate about what the 2021-2050 averages might be, then realize that in 2050, those might seem to be under attack in the same way that emerging 1991-2020 averages may seem a bit lower tha

First thing, careful about average and maximum temperatures. The 40C is max, which would have a min of around 20C, so an average near 30C. However, London being like southern France or Barcelona in

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I'm curious why when people think of a warming climate they immediately talk about a summer climate similar to (insert place) when all evidence so far points to the colder months showing bigger increases in the UK as the climate warms. When you think about it logically, as a temperate maritime climate it makes sense that if there is more heat in the system, months with a weak sun angle and therefore more reliant on latent heat will see a larger increase than the summer months which are at least partially dependent on the higher sun angle to generate higher temperatures. Similarly, maxima could be moderated so the average increase in the summer months is less by increased cloud amounts.

Certainly, looking at the CET series, there's a distinct lack of 'cold' summers such as those seen in the mid-1980s. Instead what we get are equally poor summers weather-wise, but temperatures on average are warmer by 0.6C or so.

I imagine the future for the UK is rather different than anything like Barcelona, but rather a more uniform (albeit warmer) climate with smaller differences between winter and summer and even maxima and minima. In a 3C warming scenario, I can quite imagine means some 4-5C above now in winter, but maybe only 1-2C more than now in summer.

All speculation of course as no-one knows for sure.

Edited by reef
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I'd be interested to know how warm it is now compared to the Medieval warm period or the Roman period. There are records of Vineyards in Britain grown as far north as hadrians's wall. 

Re winter v summer, yes you could possibly be right.

Does anyone here consider that global warming could deccelerate the speed of the jet stream, slow it down completely and then we could face a period of cooling? Like not ice age cold but much colder. It was explored in a BBC documentary after the 2003 summer heatwave, with what must have been dubious predictions that this new "ice age" would have started by 2020. 

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1 hour ago, mrmhf said:

Would anyone agree that Earth is approaching a state shift? 

That's exactly what I think mrnhf. And state-/phase-shifts being what they are, it'll be impossible to predict just how the new one will self-organise...??

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4 hours ago, General Cluster said:

That's exactly what I think mrnhf. And state-/phase-shifts being what they are, it'll be impossible to predict just how the new one will self-organise...??

I'm in Pete!

I'm a great believer in 'Mother N.' trying to keep things 'as they were' until the forcing becomes too great then 'She' state shifts to the next stable setting?

 

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On 30/01/2020 at 12:48, Daniel* said:

The hottest temp on record seen last summer is 38.7 it is clear the ceiling for U.K. is 39-40C we are not continental and such extreme heat is very unstable, Heathrow on that very hot day was cheated.

Just to note we were VERY close to seeing 42-43c in late June 2019. The airmass aloft was insane and normal lapse rates would have yielded 40c+ comfortably. Alas by pure luck the lowest 300m or so pulled in a cool ENE from the north sea rather than the super hot SE flow above. It meant in some places temperatures were cooler at the surface than at 850mbs.

So at the moment, I'd say a theoretical max would be 42c.

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Agreed K.W.

There are pathways for African plumes (or heated air from the continent) that will allow the upper temps to have full integration with the surface temps

It will come to pass over the coming years..... but then so will many other extremes that others have already seen but few here in the UK have yet experienced?

The first major rainfall event (similar to the storm we saw here in the upper Calder Valley in the summer of 2012?)...... London Underground would be fun under such rainfall totals!

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Until about ten years ago most of the projections that I saw had Britain's winters warming faster than summers, but many of the latest projections are the other way around, suggesting that summers are expected to warm more quickly.  And yes, the UK's current "ceiling" for summer heat is probably around 42C.  It might well have hit 40C at one or two spots on 25 July 2019 had cloud not encroached into the usual hotspots that afternoon, and Kold Weather is also right about the lapse rates in late June.  

The UK is currently warming at a rate of 0.25 to 0.3C per decade so it looks like we'll be no more than another degree warmer by the 2050s, and probably a bit less.  This would take the ceiling to 43C, maybe 44C at a push, but as many, many variables have to fall into place to get those temperatures, I think there's a good chance that we won't see 42C by 2050, but at the same time I'll be surprised if we don't exceed 40C at some point by then. 

No amount of warming will change the fact that we're at the downwind end of the North Atlantic and can therefore expect to keep seeing predominantly westerly winds and lows coming in off the Atlantic, as per Reef's comments that we've had a lot of cloudy wet summers recently but they have been rather warmer than the summers that we got from similar synoptic setups in the 1980s.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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You could speculate about what the 2021-2050 averages might be, then realize that in 2050, those might seem to be under attack in the same way that emerging 1991-2020 averages may seem a bit lower than what can really be expected now. 

But having said that, I would give these as the 2021-2050 CET values:

5.2 _ 5.5 _ 7.5 _10.2 _12.5 _15.0 _17.5 _17.0 _14.7 _11.8 _8.0 _6.3 __ (10.9)

Generally speaking that equates to about warmest 20% of current data base, or an increase of about 0.5 over what the 1991-2020 averages are most likely to be. 

Since there will probably still be the same range within the data for the thirty years, most current monthly maximum values (averages for entire months) will quite likely be broken except perhaps Dec 2015 which had the look of a long-return-period singularity (it broke the existing mark by 1.6, previous new high values usually broke the existing value by a few tenths as with July and Sept 2006). Also May 1833 may take some doing. 

There is always the possibility that a long solar downturn has begun and will dig deeper into the solar "constant" than some projections, leading to a stabilizing as human warming signals balance out with the colder climatic signal of the quiet sun. I am not personally convinced this is locked in as this episode so far is more of a Dalton 2.0 than a new Maunder. 

Also, there could be imponderables like what happens to climate patterns if faster melt does begin in the arctic, a lot of low-salinity cold water is going to be flowing out of subarctic oceanic regions, so with what exact impacts on the Gulf stream, NAO and other factors? What if North America became a more reliable source region for continental arctic air than Siberia? Or the other way round, what if stronger warming over North America reduced the frequency of the east coast storm track intensification as Pacific zonal flow took over. In winters like that in the past, the storm track tended to be chopped up into somewhat random segments but moved further north into eastern Canada. 

I don't think we can model future climates just on some simplistic basis of saying all air masses warm up (although they likely would on a statistical basis). It's going to be complex and involve new wrinkles. Perhaps a much warmer Mediterranean would energize winter storms at that latitude with unknown effects on western Europe's climate but you might see storms following tracks that don't happen very often now (such as southern France to Belgium and Holland). Some of those might be capable of producing snow in Britain given the right synoptics. 

People tend to think that winter will disappear in a warming climate but bear in mind that the Great Lakes region continues to see quite an active winter and their latitudes are low to mid 40s. It's going to take a massive warming to eliminate winter from that regional climate. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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It's questions like these that always push me into following the 'wisdom of the crowd', in that expert opinions, though individually varied, tend to produce median values that are usually within a percent or so of reality...?

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By the way, I'm sure that person meant to say that London's climate would have a temperature range similar to present-day Barcelona, not the climate of Barcelona. I don't think you'll have to worry about meso-scale thunderstorm clusters along the sea breeze boundary, or strong downsloping winds from the Cotswolds. 

Given that, the 42 C summer and 18 C winter temps quoted are probably meant to give an idea of extremes that could be reached, and I would imagine the person would be quoting mean daily maxima more representative of their current climate, something like 29 C in summer and 10 C in winter perhaps. That's not to say I would agree with those values which seem a bit high for a warming of only 0.5 to 1.0 in general (which is my admittedly imprecise guess).

Maybe a contest to be settled in 2051? Deadline end of 2023. (I will send my grandchildren to collect any prize)

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6 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

By the way, I'm sure that person meant to say that London's climate would have a temperature range similar to present-day Barcelona, not the climate of Barcelona. I don't think you'll have to worry about meso-scale thunderstorm clusters along the sea breeze boundary, or strong downsloping winds from the Cotswolds. 

Given that, the 42 C summer and 18 C winter temps quoted are probably meant to give an idea of extremes that could be reached, and I would imagine the person would be quoting mean daily maxima more representative of their current climate, something like 29 C in summer and 10 C in winter perhaps. That's not to say I would agree with those values which seem a bit high for a warming of only 0.5 to 1.0 in general (which is my admittedly imprecise guess).

Maybe a contest to be settled in 2051? Deadline end of 2023. (I will send my grandchildren to collect any prize)

I expect they meant that before, but its very misleading. 18C ha sbeen reached in winter before - actually 21c - but obviously these are fairly unusual - the latter has only been reached once.

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On 02/02/2020 at 07:47, kold weather said:

Just to note we were VERY close to seeing 42-43c in late June 2019. The airmass aloft was insane and normal lapse rates would have yielded 40c+ comfortably. Alas by pure luck the lowest 300m or so pulled in a cool ENE from the north sea rather than the super hot SE flow above. It meant in some places temperatures were cooler at the surface than at 850mbs.

So at the moment, I'd say a theoretical max would be 42c.

Hyperbole if you ask me the 850hPa temps were not unheard of across much of England a slither of extreme hot airmass reached far southwest, Camborne sounding had 24C uppers unprecedented.

I don’t think 42c is achievable at least not ‘now’, 40c could be just done only in London. Take 25th July extraordinary hot air mass over France & Low Countries but top temp was 41-42C, this was with perfect conditions. I think that reveals just how slim that is we aren’t continental us in southeast are closer but not 100% it relies on London UHI working overdrive artificial heat. Still don’t think 42c possible.

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Edited by Daniel*
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35 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Hyperbole if you ask me the 850hPa temps were not unheard of across much of England a slither of extreme hot airmass reached far southwest, Camborne sounding had 24C uppers unprecedented.

I don’t think 42c is achievable at least not ‘now’, 40c could be just done only in London. Take 25th July extraordinary hot air mass over France & Low Countries but top temp was 41-42C, this was with perfect conditions. I think that reveals just how slim that is we aren’t continental us in southeast are closer but not 100% it relies on London UHI working overdrive artificial heat. Still don’t think 42c possible.

8E3846E4-4415-4CD8-893E-04B9F00F7FB1.thumb.png.17ba57e0fbf16447a9239ca806ac1bf6.png71F1620B-58AE-49F4-8977-5AFFF41604D8.thumb.png.bca836d665a22fca4bbc27f680b48725.png

40C could well be done in London especially in somewhere like Heathrow and due to UHI, we were only 1.2C off from the weather record, but that record was ever so slight, 0.2c from the last one, I was skeptical (still am) about it given they were initally saying it would not be broken. 

 

Edited by qwertyK
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In these warming times (for whatever reason) new warm records can sometimes astound.

Toronto is obviously a more continental climate than London although the differences are not extreme.

In Dec 1982, when the month started, the all-time December record was 16 C. At end of the month that had been broken three times, once by 4 C deg (new record of 20). And in March 1990 Rochester NY broke a mid-March record by almost 20 F deg when it hit the mid-80s. I'm sure not too many people were prepared for 110-120 deg readings in the summer of 1936 either. 

I don't claim to know if it will reach 42 C in London (area) under ideal heating, but it certainly could, temperatures of 45 have been recorded at similar latitudes in western Canada. 

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14 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Hyperbole if you ask me the 850hPa temps were not unheard of across much of England a slither of extreme hot airmass reached far southwest, Camborne sounding had 24C uppers unprecedented.

I don’t think 42c is achievable at least not ‘now’, 40c could be just done only in London. Take 25th July extraordinary hot air mass over France & Low Countries but top temp was 41-42C, this was with perfect conditions. I think that reveals just how slim that is we aren’t continental us in southeast are closer but not 100% it relies on London UHI working overdrive artificial heat. Still don’t think 42c possible.

8E3846E4-4415-4CD8-893E-04B9F00F7FB1.thumb.png.17ba57e0fbf16447a9239ca806ac1bf6.png71F1620B-58AE-49F4-8977-5AFFF41604D8.thumb.png.bca836d665a22fca4bbc27f680b48725.png

All I have done is take the temperatures aloft and then assume normal lapse rates for the middle of summer and gets to 42c. Likewise I have seen others use the skew-t from the day and have come to a pretty similar figure, therefore the theortical max for that was 42...

However that is of course theortical, in practice your highly unlikely to get as high as local factors such as cloud cover comes into play.

40c I'm almost certain will happen in the next 20 years, probably sooner.

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Reading the above (all of it!) with interest as the 'science' tends to get referred to in the media (how accurately?) but not published at length.

Reference is made in posts above to the valuable stabilising effect of ice melt upon temperatures, and the impact of losing the latent heat element of ice. To what extent will this be offset by that heat behind adsorbed by latent heat element of water being turned to vapour?

Trees are a major device for doing this as they can tap water stored below soil level. For me levels of afforestation remain a primary concern but I wouldn't love to see the calculations. 

Once ice retreats we must surely expect increase in afforestation especially in Northern Hemisphere and presumably greater rainfall globally?

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2 hours ago, egret said:

Reading the above (all of it!) with interest as the 'science' tends to get referred to in the media (how accurately?) but not published at length.

Reference is made in posts above to the valuable stabilising effect of ice melt upon temperatures, and the impact of losing the latent heat element of ice. To what extent will this be offset by that heat behind adsorbed by latent heat element of water being turned to vapour?

Trees are a major device for doing this as they can tap water stored below soil level. For me levels of afforestation remain a primary concern but I wouldn't love to see the calculations. 

Once ice retreats we must surely expect increase in afforestation especially in Northern Hemisphere and presumably greater rainfall globally?

 

If we, as a species, are to ignorant, to glib, to careless, to do so little that CO2 continues to rise and land ice melts then ocean circulation will stop, the seas will stratify and stagnate and god only knows what will happen to atmospheric circulation, rainfall and trees.

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Hi Dev!

It may well be a desperate plea that this can't be happening (for all it will mean if the forecasts are well in the ballpark?)?

We seem to have a good example on the changes deniers undergo over on the Covid-19 thread as the virus takes hold across the planet and similar is now happening in here with the changes too great (and oftimes well ahead of schedule?) to deny without looking a right old plonker?

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