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Are these tempreatures an actual realistic estimate of 2050?


qwertyK

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

I'm sure I read all the theory's online what the weather willl do in the future that somebody will be right. 

When we had those poor run of summers between 2007 and 2009, people stated this was the norm because more warmer air was heading to the higher latidues causing northern blocking which in turns means the slow jet stream was further south hence low pressure after low pressure. Then we get some decent summers and now this is apparently could be the norm in the years to come. 

I do believe a hot southerly does have the potential to be hotter in the future but these will be rare events as they are. 

The warmer winters is sadly probably be more true, the Arctic takes longer to cool down, sea ice will be slower to form(especially if we do head into ice free conditions) but the PV across Greenland will still form which causes that temperature contrast. We are not there yet though so cold and snowy weather can still happen, we just never properly broken up the strong PV this year but more ice loss in the Arctic will definately have a negative impacts on our winters. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
6 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

The warmer winters is sadly probably be more true, the Arctic takes longer to cool down, sea ice will be slower to form(especially if we do head into ice free conditions) but the PV across Greenland will still form which causes that temperature contrast. We are not there yet though so cold and snowy weather can still happen, we just never properly broken up the strong PV this year but more ice loss in the Arctic will definately have a negative impacts on our winters. 

Up until recently, it was thought a lack of sea Ice could promote more northern blocking in winter, therefore leading to an increased chance of colder winters at mid latitudes.  However, I suppose there is a lot more to it than that?

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Indeed, it's rather more complex - there has been quite a bit of research into the link between reduced Arctic sea ice coverage and atmospheric circulation and the results have been mixed so far, so "the jury is out" as they say.

On 03/02/2020 at 09:54, Roger J Smith said:

You could speculate about what the 2021-2050 averages might be, then realize that in 2050, those might seem to be under attack in the same way that emerging 1991-2020 averages may seem a bit lower than what can really be expected now. 

But having said that, I would give these as the 2021-2050 CET values:

5.2 _ 5.5 _ 7.5 _10.2 _12.5 _15.0 _17.5 _17.0 _14.7 _11.8 _8.0 _6.3 __ (10.9)

It's quite scary to contemplate what the 2021-2050 averages could look like.  My punt is as follows:

5.5 _ 5.7 _ 7.6 _ 9.8 _ 12.9 _ 15.6 _ 17.8 _ 17.4 _ 15.2 _ 12.0 _ 8.3 _ 6.3 __ (11.2)

This is based on my prediction that the warming of 0.25 to 0.3C per decade will probably continue for the next three decades as well. 

I don't think a continuation of "business as usual" would be likely to be quite as bad for the planet as a whole as Devonian suggested, but on the other hand it could well be every bit as bad as that for a wide range of species, including us humans.  The planet has previously been 5-10C warmer than today so it will be able to cope, but whether we'll be able to cope with the impacts of rapid transition to a world that is even just 3C above pre-industrial levels, notably rising sea levels and loss of towns and cities to the sea, is another matter. 

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
3 hours ago, Don said:

Up until recently, it was thought a lack of sea Ice could promote more northern blocking in winter, therefore leading to an increased chance of colder winters at mid latitudes.  However, I suppose there is a lot more to it than that?

From what I can see, I notice the warmer air during the Autumn months at higher latitudes takes longer to retreat, the PV is slower to build up and sea ice is trending to take longer to form and that should be more of the case if Arctic sea ice continues to melt away. 

This imo will result in warmer Autumn's and winters in the northern hemisphere. Yes there will still be cold air around but not to the scale we see even now and definately not like it was in the 60s and 70s where uppers of - 40s were more widespread across the Arctic and parts of the NH. 

That said, that winter temperature graphic on GMB is quite misleading though, temps of mid teens wont be the norm, our warm air in winter comes from the Azores and I would imagine air from that region is unlikely to change too much with climate change. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Yes, even in relatively mild locations such as here in Exeter we'd probably need to be at least 5C above pre-industrial levels for temperatures in the mid-teens to be the norm in winter, and more than that in the north-east, and I am hopeful that humans will act urgently enough to stop us from getting that high (although I can foresee us getting to 3C unfortunately).

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