Are these tempreatures an actual realistic estimate of 2050?

[qwertyK]

 skip to about 9:42.

 

Estimating temps up to 40+ in summer and 18c in winter?

Seems like this is a gross overestimation. Can't remember who said but some Swiss climate think tank said London would have climate of Barcelona in 2050. That means on average summer would be about 27 (so nowhere near 40) and winters around 12-14c. 

[Gray-Wolf]

I think there are too many variables with the UK to be able to use some straight line projection of how temp/precipitation will change?

If we do see AMOC issues then we could well be seeing a very different outcome over the period of disruption?

I still think we will see atmospheric reorganisation and this too could bring rapid changes to an altered UK climate?

As it is we know the Polar Jet has tracked north over this last 20 years so surely this will see us with the polar jet to our north more often? Should we see the waviness of the Jet (polar plunges/WAA) lessen then we might find ourselves to the south of the jet most of the year?

I think we can be certain that the weathers we knew in our childhood (well those of us over 50!) are not going to return!

[qwertyK]

6 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I think there are too many variables with the UK to be able to use some straight line projection of how temp/precipitation will change?

If we do see AMOC issues then we could well be seeing a very different outcome over the period of disruption?

I still think we will see atmospheric reorganisation and this too could bring rapid changes to an altered UK climate?

As it is we know the Polar Jet has tracked north over this last 20 years so surely this will see us with the polar jet to our north more often? Should we see the waviness of the Jet (polar plunges/WAA) lessen then we might find ourselves to the south of the jet most of the year?

I think we can be certain that the weathers we knew in our childhood (well those of us over 50!) are not going to return!

There's a lot I've been reading about the jet stream slowing down. Is it too simplistic to say that if it slows down we will get colder weather ?

[Gray-Wolf]

If it slows down it becomes more wavy so we can see direct polar plunges but what happens if it continues to slow to the point that it no long isolates the sub tropical air masses from polar?

Over the PETM we had an 'equitable' climate which saw Lions and Hippos in Trafalgar Sq and Palms/Crocodiles on Ellesmere Island inside the Arctic!

The last time we saw temps/CO2 this high we lost 2/3rds of Greenland's ice sheet and West Antarctica was ice Free....just imagine the albedo flip that would drive! (never mind the reanimation of the 'hibernating' carbon cycle buried beneath the ice from the last time they were 'ice free'?

 

[Methuselah]

I tend to agree with both arguments, to some degree: I doubt very much that (as Bill Giles insists) weather-prediction will become much simpler; but, on the other hand, he's right enough, in that, aye, as there's still 30-years' warming already in the system, we may as well 'make hay while the sun shines'...That must be better than wearing hair-shirts and self-flagellating?

And, maxes of 42C in Southern England? Why not...36C is already a near-annual event...

[BornFromTheVoid]

14 hours ago, qwertyK said:

 

Estimating temps up to 40+ in summer and 18c in winter?

Seems like this is a gross overestimation. Can't remember who said but some Swiss climate think tank said London would have climate of Barcelona in 2050. That means on average summer would be about 27 (so nowhere near 40) and winters around 12-14c. 

First thing, careful about average and maximum temperatures. The 40C is max, which would have a min of around 20C, so an average near 30C.
However, London being like southern France or Barcelona in 2050? That's just wrong. Current June, July and August average for London is 17.9C (based on Heathrow). For Marseille, it's 23.6C. Even under the worst warming scenario the London summer average is unlikely to even reach 20C by 2050. That's ignoring the fact that southern France is much drier too. There may be heatwaves or unusual summers where London is like southern France of today, but the average summers in 2050 won't be.

As for the maps... 40C over Ireland is a bit silly considering the maximum ever recorded is 33C.

That's the issue when you have bunch of non-experts, albeit well meaning it seems, discussing a complex topic on a talk show.

[Daniel*]

It is ridiculous scaremongering suggesting that would be seen every summer, or even be possible for much of U.K. the Ireland 40C really got me, that would require continental drift and maybe vaporisation of oceans, see you in a few million years? 

Edited January 30, 2020 by Daniel*

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

I tend to agree with both arguments, to some degree: I doubt very much that (as Bill Giles insists) weather-prediction will become much simpler; but, on the other hand, he's right enough, in that, aye, as there's still 30-years' warming already in the system, we may as well 'make hay while the sun shines'...That must be better than wearing hair-shirts and self-flagellating?

And, maxes of 42C in Southern England? Why not...36C is already a near-annual event...

The hottest temp on record seen last summer is 38.7 it is clear the ceiling for U.K. is 39-40C we are not continental and such extreme heat is very unstable, Heathrow on that very hot day was cheated.

[Methuselah]

39 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The hottest temp on record seen last summer is 38.7 it is clear the ceiling for U.K. is 39-40C we are not continental and such extreme heat is very unstable, Heathrow on that very hot day was cheated.

To assume that there is anything like a 'clear ceiling for the UK...39-40 C' is merely a logical fallacy. No such ceiling exists. Or, if it does, neither you nor I can possibly know what it is --- it's one of Donald Rumsfeld's 'unknown unknowns'! 

[qwertyK]

2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

I tend to agree with both arguments, to some degree: I doubt very much that (as Bill Giles insists) weather-prediction will become much simpler; but, on the other hand, he's right enough, in that, aye, as there's still 30-years' warming already in the system, we may as well 'make hay while the sun shines'...That must be better than wearing hair-shirts and self-flagellating?

And, maxes of 42C in Southern England? Why not...36C is already a near-annual event...

She isi mplying that will somehow be average, when in reality these temps will only be likely in heatwave conditions.

 

Even so, we only just beat the 2003 record by 0.2 of a degree. 

[qwertyK]

The thing I don't get, and I'm not an expert, is that when you look at the CET index and compare it say from the 71-00 to 81-10, there hasn't actually been much of a difference, maybe about 0.2C in most cases. We would have to do some serious warming in the next 30 years to have anything like a climate like Barcelona, right? 

 

 

[Wimbledon88]

25 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

The thing I don't get, and I'm not an expert, is that when you look at the CET index and compare it say from the 71-00 to 81-10, there hasn't actually been much of a difference, maybe about 0.2C in most cases. We would have to do some serious warming in the next 30 years to have anything like a climate like Barcelona, right? 

 

 

Totally agree. The CET has increased by 0.2c in the last 50 years. Nobody ever mentions that. Goes against the narrative I suppose. And as someone said earlier 40c in Ireland, what utter utter nonsense. 

Interesting to see they still use Heathrow as the temperature record data for London. Wonder why... 

[cheeky_monkey]

its strange because where i live has a very continental weather type..so you would expect summer temperatures and heat waves to be on the rise..however there has been no change in summer average temps in the last 75 years and no change in rainfall either..only winter and spring have warmed..where as autumns have cooled slightly

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

its strange because where i live has a very continental weather type..so you would expect summer temperatures and heat waves to be on the rise..however there has been no change in summer average temps in the last 75 years and no change in rainfall either..only winter and spring have warmed..where as autumns have cooled slightly

Aye, CM. But we're talking about the UK, you are on about Alberta! Rather like comparing apples with...brontosauruses?

[cheeky_monkey]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Aye, CM. But we're talking about the UK, you are on about Alberta! Rather like comparing apples with...brontosauruses?

not really..you would think that if anywhere summer temps would be on the rise it would be here..due to its continental climate..less so for the UK because of its maritime climate..there are zero chances of the UK having a climate akin to Barcelona by 2050..im sure if you searched hard enough you could find plenty of articles from the 1990s saying the UK would have a Mediterranean climate by 2020

[qwertyK]

Just now, cheeky_monkey said:

not really..you would think that if anywhere summer temps would be on the rise it would be here..due to its continental climate..less so for the UK because of its maritime climate..there are zero chances of the UK having a climate akin to Barcelona by 2050..im sure if you searched hard enough you could find plenty of articles from the 1990s saying the UK would have a Mediterranean climate by 2020

Also one in 2012 by the BBC that the UK would have a Madeira climate, which is also false. 

 

So is the study by Crowther Lab's inaccurate? 

Global heating: London to have climate similar... - Crowtherlab

WWW.CROWTHERLAB.COM

---

80% of cities to undergo dramatic changes

 

 

Average London temp in hottest month (July) is 23c. Barcelona's is around 27C.

[qwertyK]

1 hour ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Totally agree. The CET has increased by 0.2c in the last 50 years. Nobody ever mentions that. Goes against the narrative I suppose. And as someone said earlier 40c in Ireland, what utter utter nonsense. 

Interesting to see they still use Heathrow as the temperature record data for London. Wonder why... 

Granted, the winters of say 1963 and 1947 and even the 2010 winter have yet to make any kind of re-appearance.

You do accept climate change though? 

I know some sources like the Met Office have said 2018-2022 will be an unusually warm period, so potentially we could see less freak weather events after this.

But even so, last year was actually an El Nino year. Granted it was much smaller than say 2016, but most places don't even acknowledge this. The 21c weatehr in February wasn't entirely un-normal. First time we've had over 20c in winter, yes, but February 1998 came close, in 2012 we also saw 18c in February, in 2003 17c in January.....

So unless there is some massive change in carbon emissions (which seems if anything they will fall rather than rise massively) between now and 2050, I'd say we will continue the warming trend, but it will be by small amounts like 0.2c. 0.2c change in 50 years, so maybe we will be another 0.2 warmer by 2050. 

The whole idea of London having a climate akin to Barcelona is odd anyway given the fact that they haven't actually defined London; UHI effect etc, there are places in London in summer where it can be up to 10C cooler or warmer. 

 

[Devonian]

1 hour ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Totally agree. The CET has increased by 0.2c in the last 50 years. Nobody ever mentions that. Goes against the narrative I suppose. And as someone said earlier 40c in Ireland, what utter utter nonsense. 

Interesting to see they still use Heathrow as the temperature record data for London. Wonder why... 

It looks to be a lot more than .2C to me.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

[qwertyK]

3 minutes ago, Devonian said:

It looks to be a lot more than .2C to me.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

Climate of London - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

[qwertyK]

4 minutes ago, Devonian said:

It looks to be a lot more than .2C to me.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

[BornFromTheVoid]

1 hour ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Totally agree. The CET has increased by 0.2c in the last 50 years. Nobody ever mentions that. Goes against the narrative I suppose. And as someone said earlier 40c in Ireland, what utter utter nonsense. 

Interesting to see they still use Heathrow as the temperature record data for London. Wonder why... 

Except it's increased by 1.0C in that time, 0.2C per decade. 


Certainly does go against the narrative some people tell themselves.

[qwertyK]

1 minute ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Except it's increased by 1.0C in that time, 0.2C per decade. 


Certainly does go against the narrative some people tell themselves.

But can the current levels of warming be maintained? Consensus is that they will increase.

[qwertyK]

2 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Except it's increased by 1.0C in that time, 0.2C per decade. 


Certainly does go against the narrative some people tell themselves.

If this level of warming is maintained, even so, the UK will only be 0.6C warmer by 2050, which obviously does not mean somewhere like London will have the climate of Barcelona. 

[Gray-Wolf]

El nino last year? methinks not! La nada last year with some warm bits in the ENSO regions but not enough to trigger a Nino being called!

As for folk sticking to the 0.2c per decade increase? Really?

Have we not yet gotten it into our heads that climate 'steps' from state to state it does not glide via teensy weensy increments!

We are told that the paleo record from Siberian cave stalactites show us that 1.5c above preindustrial temps sees the resumption of growth in the stalactites i.e. the ice melts and running water takes over

So another 0.3c and we lose the permafrost which in turn suggests we had already lost the sea ice that helps keep the region cool/cold (ice loss impacts temps up to 1,500km away)

Do we not think that 'albedo flip' from sea ice loss, plus the loss of the drain on incoming solar that 'melting ice' provides all summer long, will not see instant impacts on our hemisphere?

Let me put it this way, it takes 70 Cals of energy to melt a 1 cm cube of ice. put 70 Cals of energy into a 1cm cube of water and its temp goes up to 70C (1 Calorie raises the temp of 1cm cube of water 1 degree C)

So I think all we can say is "We don't know" just how bad things will be in 2050.....in fact it depends how we all behave in the meantime really?

Edited January 30, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[qwertyK]

Just now, Gray-Wolf said:

El nino last year? methinks not! La nada last year with some warm bit but not enough to trigger a Nino being called!

As for folk sticking to the 0.2c per decade increase? Really?

Have we not yet gotten it into our heads that climate 'steps' from state to state it does not glide via teensy weensy increments!

We are told that the paleo record from Siberian cave stalactites show us that 1.5c above preindustrial temps sees the resumption of growth in the stalactites i.e. the ice melts and running water takes over

So another 0.3c and we lose the permafrost which in turn suggests we had already lost the sea ice that helps keep the region cool/cold (ice loss impacts temps up to 1,500km away)

Do we not think that 'albedo flip' from sea ice loss, plus the loss of the drain on incoming solar that 'melting ice' provides all summer long, will not see instant impacts on our hemisphere?

Let me put it this way, it takes 70 Cals of energy to melt a 1 cm cube of ice. put 70 Cals of energy into a 1cm cube of water and its temp goes up to 70C (1 Calorie raises the temp of 1cm cube of water 1 degree C)

So I think all we can say is "We don't know" just how bad things will be in 2050.....in fact it depends how we all behave in the meantime really?

El Niño has arrived. What does that mean for weather in 2019?

MASHABLE.COM

---

This natural event can have big implications for the weather.

It was weak, but it could still be a factor.

And whilst heatwaves were bad in Europe last year, in the UK summer was actually only the 11th warmest. 

Action now probably won't have a massive mpact on 2050. It will impact later. There are billions of tonnes of carbon stored in the atmosphere, it takes hundreds of years for it to be lost.