Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[knocker]

Prescient or what?

 

[stewfox]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Prescient or what?

 

Maybe it buys us another 100yrs ?

Plants absorb around a quarter of the carbon dioxide that people release into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. With a greening globe, more plants may mean more absorption of carbon dioxide. If so, this will slow but not stop climate change.

http://theconversation.com/despite-decades-of-deforestation-the-earth-is-getting-greener-38226

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

Prescient or what?

 

Certainly is including this years El Nino.  So yes very prescient and its not even the cherry picking season yet!.

Will it look anywhere near as good if the next 2 years drop to about 0.65C as the La Nina bites?  (equivalent to what happened in 1990-2000).

The average for this decade might well then come in at about 0.75 - 0.85C. It will look a lot different then.

MIA.

Edited April 25, 2016 by Midlands Ice Age

[knocker]

On 25/04/2016 at 9:28 PM, stewfox said:

Maybe it buys us another 100yrs ?

Plants absorb around a quarter of the carbon dioxide that people release into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. With a greening globe, more plants may mean more absorption of carbon dioxide. If so, this will slow but not stop climate change.

http://theconversation.com/despite-decades-of-deforestation-the-earth-is-getting-greener-38226

On this subject

 

[knocker]

 

[knocker]

Surface TempLS global temperature down 0.104°C in April

Quote

TempLS mesh, reported here (as of 8 May, 4263 stations, China still to arrive), was down from 1.032°C in March to 0.928 in April (base 1961-90). This is slightly smaller drop than the NCEP/NCAR index (0.15), but larger than the satellite reductions(UAH 0.02; RSS 0.09). TempLS grid dropped by more (0.136°C), which is similar to NCEP/NCAR.

In other news, JAXA Arctic Sea Ice shows continued melting and record low levels; since mid April the margin between it and previous years has become quite marked.

http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/surface-templs-global-temperature-down.html

[knocker]

 

[knocker]

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

At +1.11C above the 51-80 average, it is the warmest on record, beating the 2010 value of +0.87C.

 

Meanwhile, the 12 month rolling average is now up to +0.994C, so just shy of the 1C mark.

Anything over +0.85C for May should send the 12 month average above 1C.

[Terminal Moraine]

We appear to be entering  uncharted territory here with not a single month showing a positive anomaly of 1.0c until last October and then 7 such months in succession.

[BornFromTheVoid]

2 hours ago, Terminal Moraine said:

We appear to be entering  uncharted territory here with not a single month showing a positive anomaly of 1.0c until last October and then 7 such months in succession.

Agreed. However, we should see things drop back below 1C during Autumn as La Nina begins to kick in. We're still, essentially, guaranteed the 3^rd consecutive warmest year though.

[knocker]

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

We will be hosting an AMA today on reddit.com/r/science with folks from Climate Central and the Weather Channel. When the AMA is live, I'll add a link in here.

Here's the intro:

"Hi, we're Bernadette Woods Placky and Brian Kahn from Climate Central and Carl Parker, a hurricane specialist from the Weather Channel. The last 11 months in a row have been some of the most abnormally warm months the planet has ever experienced and are toeing close to the 1.5°C warming threshold laid out by the United Nations as an important climate milestone.

We've been keeping an eye on the record-setting temperatures as well as some of the impacts from record-low sea ice to a sudden April meltdown in Greenland to coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef. We're here to answer your questions about the global warming hot streak the planet is currently on, where we're headed in the future and our new Twitter hashtag for why these temperatures are #2hot2handle.

We will be back at 3 pm ET to answer your questions, Ask us anything!"

[BornFromTheVoid]

The AMA is now live https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/4jwao6/science_ama_series_were_weather_and_climate/

[knocker]

Review of recent global temp with ENSO cpmparison

Quote

I have been maintaining a plot I did in February, comparing the temperatures month by month of various indices with those of 1997/98. I thought I should post the plot again here for easier access. There is some sign of recession from the peak in April, and this will probably be reinforced in May, although global SST still seems warm. In fact, I had to modify the plot somewhat, as in April for the first time, some indices (RSS and UAH, troposphere) dropped below their 1998 levels. This was because of an unusual TLT spike in 1998, where April stood out as hottest month. I have made the bars somewhat transparent.

So here is the plot. You can use the arrows at the top to cycle through the various datasets:

http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/review-of-recent-global-temp-with-enso.html

[knocker]

The NCEP/NCAR index dropped again in June, from 0.471°C in May to 0.369°C in May (anomaly base 1994-2013). The drop is smaller than previous months, and may be a sign of levelling. We are now back in average to about Sept 2015, the first small rise of the El Nino.

 Cold in E Europe to W Siberia, most of US except E Coast, and a band of cold from Labrador/Greenland into the N Atlantic. Warm in Arctic and Canada, and the reanalysis still has the ENSO region fairly warm. Globally, the temperature rose somewhat at end of month.

In other news, UAH V6 also dropped considerably, from 0.55°C to 0.34°C. Arctic Sea Ice recovered somewhat (relatively), and 2016 is now not quite in the lead. Big drops in the last few days, but looking back through the record, this seems to be a feature of the end of our financial year.

https://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/ncepncar-down-01-in-june.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

GISS data is out, and at +0.79C June 2016 was the warmest on record, beating the previous record set last year by 0.01C.

The 12 month rolling average is now up to +1.02C, up from 1.01C last month.

 

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

[BornFromTheVoid]

A record warm June according to the NCDC too https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201606

[BornFromTheVoid]

At +0.44C above the 81-10 average, July 2016 is the warmest on record according to the JMA, beating the previous record set last year by +0.06C.

 

Top 5
1st. 2016 (+0.44°C)
2nd. 2015 (+0.38°C)
3rd. 1998 (+0.30°C)
4th. 2014 (+0.28°C)
5th. 2010, 2005 (+0.24°C)

[BornFromTheVoid]

GISS have updated, and at 0.84C, July 2016 is the warmest on record, beating the 2011 value of +0.74C.

 

The 12 month rolling average is at a new high of +1.018C

Year to date average is +1.06C. For a new record, the remaining months only need to average +0.62C, the coldest Aug-Dec since 2008.
To finish at least 0.1C above last years record,  the remaining months need to average +0.86C
To finish the year above +1.0C, the remaining months need to average +0.91C

[knocker]

July 2016 was Earth's warmest July since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Wednesday. In the NOAA database, July 2016 came in 0.87°C (1.15°F) warmer than the 20th-century average for July, beating the previous record for July, set in 2015, by 0.06°C. NASA also reported the warmest July in its database.

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/warmest-julyand-warmest-monthon-record-for-the-globe

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest SOTC report is out. As expected, July has become the 15th consecutive record warm month, beating last years record by 0.06C.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201607

[knocker]

Big rise (0.21°C) in surface temperature in August

Quote

Surprising, but TempLS mesh is so far an outlier here. The TempLS mesh global anomaly rose from 0.65°C in July to 0.86°C in August (base 1961-90). This is a change after a period of slow decline, and is almost back to the level of last January. TempLS grid showed a much smaller rise of 0.043°C. These results are consistent with the NCEP/NCAR index (up 0.02°C). The satellite measures varied; UAH6 LT was up 0.05°C, but RSS down just 0.01°C. The reason for the discrepancy seems to be the big variation in Antarctica, which is variably seen and weighted.
 

https://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/big-rise-021c-in-surface-temperature-in.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

At +0.98C above the 51-80 average, August 2016 is the warmest on record beating the previous record of +0.82C set in 2014. Summer 2016 was also warmest on record +0.88C, beating the record set last year by +0.12C.

The rolling 12 month average is now up to +1.03C

In order for the year to average 1.0C or greater, the average anomaly for the rest of the year needs to be at least +0.89C

[knocker]