Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[BornFromTheVoid]

Hi BFTV. Hope you are well.

Interesting to see the NCEP CFSR data you have provided. I've spent some time looking at similar data provided by Dr Ryan Maue through Weatherbell' open site and 'climate reanalyzer';

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Reanalysis_monthly/tseries.php

If you select CFSR it shows NCEP CFSR

Temp at 2m

1000mb

September

World

This shows five Septembers from 2002 to 2007 above 15.8degC!

I am a little disappointed at the level of disagreement between the two data sets and yours given their common data source.

For instance you have Sept 2015 as the warmest on record at 15.554degC but Weatherbell show September to average 15.56degC over the chosen baseline. Their 2015 value is around 0.3degC above 15.56 or around 15.86 which is up around 2002, 2003 levels, but not a record. Shame 'reanalyser' doesn't have 2015 yet for direct comparison

Also you have shown Sept 2014 to have been 15.42degC (third highest on record) whereas Dr Maue has Sept 2014 at 15.76degC (same as 'climate reanalyzer'), well below 2002 to 2007. Again when both are from the same data set and in real temperatures not anomalies, the discrepancy is alarming.

Where is your data from BFTV?

 

That's quite a difference. However, the NCEP reanalysis seems to broadly agree with the main global temperature data sets (GISS, HadCRUT, JMA) so I assume it's somewhat reliable.

Anyway, the graphs and data I posted are from here http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

I usually remember to add the link in, not sure why I forgot that time.

[Geoffwood]

That's quite a difference. However, the NCEP reanalysis seems to broadly agree with the main global temperature data sets (GISS, HadCRUT, JMA) so I assume it's somewhat reliable.

Anyway, the graphs and data I posted are from here http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

I usually remember to add the link in, not sure why I forgot that time.

Hi BFTV. Thanks for the link.

From the above, I am surprised at the temperature difference shown for 'surface' as opposed to 1000mb as a default. 1000mb is significantly warmer than the surface!!!!

Anyway, I am pleased that you are happy with NCEP CFSR as it is described as a 'state of the art','high resolution', 'third generation model'.

I still remain uncomfortable with the lack of correlation between NCEP data as processed by NOAA and that same data shown as a time series by Maine University and Weatherbell's Dr Maue. As far as I am aware what is taken is the input data from the start of each 6hourly model run. No further processing required other than averaging over weighted areas. They should trend the same.

But they don't!

All below are NCEP CFSR.

From NOAA;

From Maine University;

From Weatherbell, last 10years;

Edited October 6, 2015 by Geoffwood

[Geoffwood]

I've just overlaid ClimateReanalyzer for this year to end of August with Dr Ryan Maue's data offering to view the correlation. It's obvious that the two are 'singing from the same hymn book'.

There is a slight vertical offset due to differing climatological baselines. CR uses 1979-2000, where Dr Maue uses 1981-2010, giving different anomalies.

CR is not at daily resolution, I only had time to plot at 5day intervals approximately.

Edited October 6, 2015 by Geoffwood

[Interitus]

Geoff you might find this of interest - http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere

[knocker]

  Rapid rise in NCEP/NCAR index

 

 

The local NCEP/NCAR index has risen rapidly in recent days. Not too much can be made of this, because it is a volatile index. But on 5 October, it reached 0.792°C. That is on an anomaly base of 2014-5. It's about 0.2°C higher than anything in 2014. I've put a CSV file of daily values from start 2014 here.

I see the associated WebGL map noticed the heat in Southern Australia. In Melbourne, we had two days at 35°C, which is very high for just two weeks after the equinox. And bad bushfires, also very unusual for early October.

Early results from TempLS mesh for Sept show a fall relative to August; TempLS grid is little changed. I'll post on that when more data is in.

[Geoffwood]

Geoff you might find this of interest - http://climexp.knmi.nl/selectfield_obs.cgi?someone@somewhere

Hi Interitus. Thanks for the link. I've spent some time on KNMI trying to view NCEP CFSR, but there appears to be a problem locating the 'land/sea mask'. I've mailed the siteminder to see if it can be resolved.

I am intrigued by this data set as it doesn't follow the 'normal flow' as viewed through certain sites. I intend to contact Maine University to ask them why, from all the models, they choose CFSRv2. Hopefully they will be aware of the differences and be able to enlighten me.

BTW. Do you have any particular faith in any of the models and if so, then why? Not a loaded question. Just interested in your opinion.

Regards.

[knocker]

Why does the choice of reference period matter when comparing models & observations? http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00154.1 â€¦

Edited October 9, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

  TempLS Mesh down 0.05°C in September

 

 

The Moyhu TempLS mesh index was down, at 0.657°C, compared with 0.707°C in August. This was at variance with the reanalysis index, which was up by 0.06, and with TempLS grid, which was steady at a rather higher value of 0.749°C. This is all based on 4168 stations reporting; we can expect 2-300 more reports to come.

The warm areas were Russia W of urals, E Canada and US mid-west, and Brazil. Also E Pacific (but not SE). This is the same pattern as with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The very cold place was Antarctica.

I was curious about the reason for discrepancy, especially with the TempLS versions, which just integrate the same data with different weights. Each month, I publish in the Mesh report a plot of attributions, described here. This shows the breakdown of the contributions to the weighted average. You can see, for example, that the contribution from Antarctica was large negative, nearly 0.1. That means that the global average would have been 0.1°C higher if Antarctica had been average instead of cold.

So I made a similar plot comparing the contributions for both grid and mesh, just in September.

[knocker]

  TempLS September and Antarctica

 

 

I wrote last about possible reasons for the drop in temperature in September shown by TempLS mesh, contreasted with the stasis shown by the grid weighting, and the rise shown by the NCEP/NCAR index. I thought that it was due to the large negative contribution assigned by mesh to Antarctica, wish has low weighting in grid.

I should have remembered that a while ago I reported that the WebGL shaded map of station temperatures is now updated daily, and is actually a better guide to what is reporting than the map of dots that I show in the daily TempLS report. I upgraded the WebGL to now show, on request, the mesh as well as the stations. That makes clearer what is happening in Antarctica, and what is reporting.

[BornFromTheVoid]

At +0.81C above the 51-80 average, GISS have September 2015 as the second warmest on record, behind last year (+0.90C).

 

 

Top 5 Septembers

 

1st - 2014:              +0.90C

2nd - 2015:            +0.81C

3rd - 2005, 2013:   +0.77C

5th - 2012:             +0.75C

 

Doesn't look like much can stop 2015 from being warmest on record.

 

 

 

 

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Edited October 11, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[knocker]

 

Analysis of the October spike in NCEP/NCAR

[BornFromTheVoid]

At +0.50C, September 2015 is the warmest on record by a large margin, according to the JMA.

 

 

It also looks like the first month in the JMA records to be at least 0.5C above the 81-10 average.

 

Top 5 Septembers

1st. 2015 (+0.50°C)

2nd. 2014 (+0.35°C)

3rd. 2013 (+0.26°C)

4th. 2012 (+0.25°C)

5th. 2009, 2005 (+0.22°C)

[knocker]

Full September 2015 U.S. Climate Report now available http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201509 â€¦

[knocker]

Nick Stokes

 

New integration methods for global temperature

Edited October 17, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

  How well do temperature indices agree?

 

In comparing TempLS integration methods, I was impressed by how RMS differences gave a fairly stable measure of agreement, which was quite informative about the processes. So I wanted to apply the same measure to a wider group of published temperature indices, which would also put the differences between TempLS variants in that context.

There are too many pairings to show time series plots, but I can show a tableau of differences over a fixed period. I chose the last 35 years, to include the satellite measures.

It is shown below the fold as a table of colored squares. It tells many things. The main surface measures agree well, HADCRUT and NOAA particularly. As expected, TempLS grid (and infilled) agree well with HAD and NOAA, while TempLS mesh agrees fairly well with GISS. Between classes (land/ocean, land, SST and satellite) there is less agreement. Within other classes, SST measures agree well, satellite only moderately, and land poorly. This probably partly reflects the underlying variability of those classes.

[solarcycle]

According to the meteo-trolls over at the express we're heading for an ice age. 

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/612369/SHOCK-CLAIM-World-is-on-brink-of-50-year-ICE-AGE-and-BRITAIN-will-bear-the-brunt

[Gael_Force]

When I saw the name Alex Sosnowski, thought this was a piddle take but seems he exists.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/personalities/alex-sosnowski

Edited October 19, 2015 by Gael_Force

[knocker]

NOAA reports today the globally-averaged temperature for September 2015 was the warmest of all previous Septembers on record, dating back to 1880, and by an unprecedented margin of 0.19 degrees.

 

“September’s high temperature was …. the greatest rise above average for any month in the 136-year historical record [comprised of 1,629 months],†NOAA said.

[knocker]

  NOAA Global anomaly up 0.01°C in September

 

In other news, the NCEP/NCAR index continues very hot for October. I commented here on a remarkable peak early in the month. It eased off from that, but only down to the level of earlier peaks, and is now rising again. With 19 days now gone, and the temperature last above the month-to-date average of 0.609°C, it will be by far the hottest month anomaly in the record. That index has anomaly base 1994-2013; on the 1951-80 base of GISS, the level would be 1.217°C.

[knocker]

 

Looking at GHCN V4 beta

[knocker]

  Hansen's 1988 predictions revisited.

 

Hansen's famous 1988 paper used runs of an early GISS GCM to forecast temperatures for the next thirty years. These forecasts are now often checked against observations. I wrote about them here. That post had an active plotter which allowed you to superimpose various observation data on Hansen's original model results.

We now have nearly four more years of results, so I thought it would be worth catching up. I've updated to Sept 2015, or latest available. Hansen's original plot matched to GISS Ts (met stations only), and used a baseline of 1951-80. I have used that base where possible, but for the satellite measures UAH and RSS I have matched to GISS Ts (Hansen's original index) in the 1981-2010 mean. That is different to the earlier post, where I matched all the data to GISS Ts. But there is also a text window where you can enter your own offset if you have some other idea.

Edited October 27, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

Berkeley Earth Temperature Update

 

Over the past few days we have been publishing the first major update of our data since early 2015. The data can be found here on our data page. Given the time of year and the wide ranging discussion about whether or not 2014 was a record year, it seemed a good time to asses the probability of 2015 being a record year. In addition, there is an interesting point to be made about how the selection of data and selection of methods can lead to different estimates of the global temperature index. That particular issue was addressed in the draft version of the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report:

 

http://berkeleyearth.org/berkeley-earth-temperature-update/

[knocker]

October 2015 global temperature anomaly (1981-2010 climo) +0.494°C

Chart weatherbell

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

According to the NCEP reanalysis data, October 2015 was the warmest on record by +0.24C. This is 0.77C above the 71-10 average, and 1.07C above the 61-90 average.

 

 

Top 5

 

2015: 14.82C

2012: 14.58C

2014: 14.54C

2005: 14.53C

2006: 14.49C

[knocker]

An assessment of the why's and how's of homogenization of station temperature data:

 

http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/homogenization2015/ â€¦