Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[Nouska]

So would you say in 15 years time in Cornwall, during the summer of 2030 I will be enjoying days of 35 degrees + or will I still be complaining that we didn't even reach 20 degrees?.snowness winters and hot summers were predicted back then, they didn't happen.my next question is when will I be feeling the effects of global warming that I'm reminded about everyday?

 

In fifteen years summers in Cornwall might be even cooler if ice melt and/or solar activity is altering circulation patterns. The more recent thinking is that warming will not be uniform - big regional differences, particularly in the Atlantic sector, could be seen - a lot will depend on the Atlantic circulation, if it continue to cool.

 

Altered atmospheric patterns, with a highly meridional component, could see the UK either below or above the jet stream - first will be hot, latter will be cool - time will tell which, if any, is favoured.

[reef]

Changes over time are subtle and not even remotely noticeable compared to fluctuations in the actual weather. We haven't hit 30°C here for 14 years now and we've had a mix of cool and warm years recently, but looking at my own data for annual mean temps shows a definite upward trend even in such a short time period as 1979-2014:

 

 

You'll always get freak cold years, seasons and months even in an upward trend, but the data over time tells the story. Its near enough a 1°C rise over 35 years here.

 

 

[knocker]

August 2015 global temperature anomaly +0.270°C vs. 1981-2010 mean

Chart weatherbell

 

[knocker]

  Global surface August - NCEP/NCAR index up 0.14°C

 

Here are the results for the Moyhu NCEP/NCAR reanalysis index for August. It looked for a while to be a record breaking month, with steady warmth. But then there was a sudden late cool spell, apparently mostly Antarctica, and then an equally sudden recovery to warmth. The end result was 0.306°C, a big rise from July's 0.164. That is just slightly cooler (in this record) than May 2014 at 0.315°C. But it is the warmest for 2015 so far.

It makes a slight difference month-month what anomaly base period is used, and so the Moyhu table gives results also on the 1951-80 base (gor GISS) and 1961-90 (NOAA Mlost). So the comparable GISS-base number would be 0.87°C. But as mentioned in earlier posts, the NCEP index, being air temperature, has been running rather cool relative to the land/ocean indices which using the warm current SST. So I would not be surprised if GISS were even higher - maybe even 0.9°C. The record GISS anomaly is Jan 2007 at 0.96°C.

ps This post is a little later than usual. The volatility meant that I wanted to go right to the end of month, and the last day of NCEP/NCAR was posted a little late at NOAA.

[knocker]

 

TempLS up 0.07°C in August

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks like a very warm start of August too. http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#webgl

 

I wonder if this months could be the first to finish more than 1C above the 51-10 average on GISS?

[knocker]

 

GISS up by 0.06°C in August

[BornFromTheVoid]

According to the GISS, August 2015 was the 2nd warmest on record after 2014.

 

Top 5

 

2014: 0.82C

2015: 0.81C

2011: 0.74C

2006: 0.71C

1998: 0.69C

 

Warmest summer on record

 

Top 5

 

2015: 0.78C

1998: 0.72C

2009: 0.69C

2011: 0.69C

2014: 0.69C

 

The last 4 months of this year would need to be quite a bit cooler than the average of the last 10 years to avoid the warmest year on record.

Edited September 14, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[BornFromTheVoid]

JMA reporting in now. They have August 2015 as the warmest on record by a huge margin (as far as records go), at +0.45C above the 81-10 average, and +0.12C higher than the previous record set last year.

 

 

Five Warmest Years (Anomalies)

 

1st. 2015 (+0.45°C),

2nd. 2014 (+0.33°C),

3rd. 1998 (+0.28°C),

4th. 2013, 2012, 2009 (+0.23°C)

 

 

At +0.42C, this summer is also the warmest on record, +0.1C above the previous record set last year.

 

 

 

1st. 2015 (+0.42°C),

2nd. 2014 (+0.32°C),

3rd. 1998 (+0.28°C),

4th. 2012, 2010 (+0.23°C)

[Singularity]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-34226178

 

This seems a bold statement given that a sharp transition to La Nina was reflected in a similar sharp drop in global temps after the 1998 event.

 

Could there be indications that La Nina will fail to manifest next year? That would be one for the books!

Edited September 14, 2015 by Singularity

[Polar Maritime]

But it also reveals that summers in Europe might get cooler for a while as the rest of the globe warms.

 

That bits interesting, Certainly if this Summer is anything to go by.

Edited September 14, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[BornFromTheVoid]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-34226178

 

This seems a bold statement given that a sharp transition to La Nina was reflected in a similar sharp drop in global temps after the 1998 event.

 

Could there be indications that La Nina will fail to manifest next year? That would be one for the books!

 

There is a lag of around 6 months between ENSO values and global temps, so even if we still have strong +ve values by March 2016, near record high temps could persist as far as September.

Both 1998 and 2010 set records for the warmest years despite both having -ve ENSO values by June, and moderate to strong La Ninas by September.

[Nouska]

There is a lag of around 6 months between ENSO values and global temps, so even if we still have strong +ve values by March 2016, near record high temps could persist as far as September.

Both 1998 and 2010 set records for the warmest years despite both having -ve ENSO values by June, and moderate to strong La Ninas by September.

 

Yes, the North American global models still show a very toasty (our resident cold pool being an exception) oceanic picture through to April next year - it will take time to have that influence modified.

 

[Interitus]

That bits interesting, Certainly if this Summer is anything to go by.

 

In what way regarding this summer? Away from far northern Europe, Scandinavia and the British Isles it has been a warm summer, particularly early on in the west and later further east.

Edited September 14, 2015 by Interitus

[Polar Maritime]

Oh yes i agree, But the cooling has to start somewhere. Northern Europe has always been seen to cool due to climate change. So could factors regarding La Nina enhance this maybe?

[BornFromTheVoid]

The SOTC report has August 2015 as the warmest on recording, beating the previous record set last year by 0.09C. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201508

 

• Land surface temperature was the warmest for any August on record
• Oceans were the warmest for any month on record, beating the high set last month.
• The summer was the warmest on record, beating the record set last year by +0.11C
• Year to date is the warmest on record, 0.10C above the previous record set in 2010

 

How 2015 looks so far...

[knocker]

Ryan Maue â€@RyanMaue 18h18 hours ago

UAH MSU v5.6 lower tropospheric temperature anomaly map for August 2015. +0.31°C

[Blessed Weather]

With apologies if the paper Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum has already been mentioned on here. This article in the latest Weather Club newsletter mentioned it and I thought it of interest. Some extracts:

 

What impact would a ‘grand solar minimum’ have on our future climate?

A paper, led by Met Office scientists in collaboration with the universities of Cambridge, Oxford, Reading and Colorado and published in Nature Communications, has found that the return of a ‘grand solar minimum’ not seen in centuries could increase the chances of cold winters in Europe and eastern US, whilst failing to halt global warming.

Some solar physicists believe there is an increased risk that we are heading towards the minimum stage of this solar cycle – last seen during the so-called ‘Maunder Minimum’ which ended 300 years ago and coincided with colder winters in UK and Europe.

Regionally, a larger cooling effect was found for northern Europe, the UK and eastern parts of North America, especially in winter, with northern Europe experiencing a mean drop in temperature in the range -0.4C to -0.8C.

The impact of a grand solar minimum would only temporarily moderate future warming from climate change.

 

Weather Club Newsletter: http://www.theweatherclub.org.uk/twc_news112015.pdf?dm_i=2PRB,233K,135O6Y,6G32,1

 

Full paper in Nature Communications: http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150623/ncomms8535/full/ncomms8535.html

[Polar Maritime]

Cheers Blessed, I will also link this paper to the Solar thread 

[knocker]

 

Better gridding for global temperature

[knocker]

Nick Stokes

 

  GWPF wimps out

[knocker]

NS is a beaut.

 

  Optimised gridding for temperature

[knocker]

  NCEP/NCAR index up 0.06°C in September

 

 

The Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index from the reanalysis data was up from 0.306°C to 0.368°C in September. That makes September warmer by a large margin (0.05°C) than anything in that index in recent years. It looked likely to be even warmer, but cooled off a bit at the end.

A similar rise in GISS would bring it to 0.87°C. Putting the NCEP index on the 1951-1980 base (using GISS) would make it 0.95°C. I'd expect something in between. GISS' hottest month anomaly was Jan 2007 at 0.97°C. Hottest September (GISS) was in 2014, at 0.90°C. It was the hottest month of 2014.

The global map shows something unusual - warmth in the US and Eastern Canada. And a huge warm patch in the E Pacific. Mostly cold in Antarctica and Australia, but very warm in E Europe up to the Urals, and in Middle East.

[BornFromTheVoid]

At 15.554C September 2015 is the warmest on record by over 0.1C, beating the record set in 2013, according to the NCEP reanlaysis data.

 

 

Top 5 Septembers

 

2015: 15.55C

2013: 15.43C

2014: 15.42C

2012: 15.41C

2005: 15.38C

 

Of note, this September is 0.49C warmer than 1997, the last time El Nino was at a similar level.

Edited October 3, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[Geoffwood]

At 15.554C September 2015 is the warmest on record by over 0.1C, beating the record set in 2013, according to the NCEP reanlaysis data.

 

 

Top 5 Septembers

 

2015: 15.55C

2013: 15.43C

2014: 15.42C

2012: 15.41C

2005: 15.38C

 

Of note, this September is 0.49C warmer than 1997, the last time El Nino was at a similar level.

Hi BFTV. Hope you are well.

Interesting to see the NCEP CFSR data you have provided. I've spent some time looking at similar data provided by Dr Ryan Maue through Weatherbell' open site and 'climate reanalyzer';

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Reanalysis_monthly/tseries.php

If you select CFSR it shows NCEP CFSR

Temp at 2m

1000mb

September

World

This shows five Septembers from 2002 to 2007 above 15.8degC!

I am a little disappointed at the level of disagreement between the two data sets and yours given their common data source.

For instance you have Sept 2015 as the warmest on record at 15.554degC but Weatherbell show September to average 15.56degC over the chosen baseline. Their 2015 value is around 0.3degC above 15.56 or around 15.86 which is up around 2002, 2003 levels, but not a record. Shame 'reanalyser' doesn't have 2015 yet for direct comparison

Also you have shown Sept 2014 to have been 15.42degC (third highest on record) whereas Dr Maue has Sept 2014 at 15.76degC (same as 'climate reanalyzer'), well below 2002 to 2007. Again when both are from the same data set and in real temperatures not anomalies, the discrepancy is alarming.

Where is your data from BFTV?