Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects


BornFromTheVoid

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

3rd warmest April on record according to the JMA

 

apr_wld.png

 

1st. 2014, 1998 (+0.31°C)

3rd. 2015 (+0.30°C)

4th. 2010 (+0.27°C)

5th. 2005 (+0.20°C)

 

gridtemp201504e.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

  How to average temperature over space and time

 

This post is about the basics of TempLS. But I want to present it in terms of first principles of averaging, with reference to other methods that people try that just don't work. I'll present the least squares approach described here.

I once described a very simple version of TempLS. In a way, what I am talking about here is even simpler. It incorporates an iterative approach which not only gives context to the more naiver approaches, which are in fact the first steps, but is a highly efficient solution process.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Comparing the United States COOP stations with the US Climate Reference Network

 

 

Last week the mitigation sceptics apparently expected climate data to be highly reliable and were complaining that an update led to small changes. Other weeks they expect climate data to be largely wrong, for example due to non-ideal micro-siting or urbanization. These concerns can be ruled out for the climate-quality US Climate Reference Network (USCRN). This is a guest post by Jared Rennie* introducing a recent study comparing USCRN stations with nearby stations of the historical network, to study the differences in the temperature and precipitation measurements.

 

http://variable-variability.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/COOP-United-States-Climate-Reference-Network-USCRN-stations.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

  TempLS May down slightly from April

 

 

GHCN Data was delayed slightly for May by the release of Version 3.3. When data became available, it was fairly complete. It showed a slight drop of 0.01°C from April (0.628 to 0.618). Satellite measures rose considerably.

This is at variance with the reanalysis data, which suggested a much warmer month. I wondered if V3.3 had an effect, but previous months were much as before. I'll watch the next few days for any changes, but as I said, most of the data is in. So May is looking more like April (cool for 2015) than February.

Details are in the report here. N Russia and Alaska had very warm spots; the poles were cool. The Arctic coolness was reflected in the reanalysis results. Generally the coolness was due to land; SST rose, as reflected by HADSST3.

There is an interesting Tech Note from NOAA on ver 3 here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Warmest May on record, by 0.06C, according to the JMA.

 

may_wld.png

 

1st. 2015 (+0.37°C)
2nd. 2014 (+0.31°C)
3rd. 1998 (+0.27°C)
4th. 2010 (+0.23°C)
5th. 2012 (+0.22°C)
 
 
We have also set the warmest Spring on record too.
 
spr_wld.png
 
1st. 2015 (+0.33°C)
2nd. 2014 (+0.28°C)
3rd. 2010 (+0.26°C)
4th. 1998 (+0.25°C)
5th. 2002 (+0.18°C)
 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Joint 2nd warmest May and 2nd warmest Spring on record, according to GISS

 

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

 

 

nmaps.gif

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Much as Nick Stokes forecast

 

NOAA has released the data for average global surface temperature for the month of May. The number is 0.87 degrees C (1.57 degrees F) above the 20th century average for their data set. This is the highest value seen for the month of May since 1880, which is the earliest year in the database. The previous record value for may was last year. This year’s May value is 0.08 degrees C (0.14 degrees F) higher than that.

 

Via the link

 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/18/may-2015-global-surface-temperatures-break-record/

Edited by knocker
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
4th warmest June according to the ncep reanalysis data. The top 8 are within 0.1C of each other though.

 

Top 10

 

2013:  15.93

2005:  15.907

1998:  15.906

2015:  15.886

2012:  15.875

2010:  15.851

2007:  15.836

2011:  15.835

2006:  15.828

2014:  15.811

 

51QRyff.png

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

  Maintained WebGL map of past GHCN/SST station anomaliess

 

I have a maintained page here which shows anomalies for individual land stations and SST cells, averaged over each month. Land data comes from GHCN V3 unadjusted, and SST from ERSST, formerly ver 3b. It is a shaded color map, with true color for each station, and linear interpolated color in between. I think it's the best way of seeing the raw data.

Now that I am doing daily runs of TempLS mesh, and this produces much of the necessary data, I have decided to make production of these maps a subsidiary process. This saves duplication, and keeps up to date with versions (using now ERSST 4). But what may be more useful is the daily updating. That means that the latest month can be tracked progressively as data comes in. So today, I am waiting on data from Canada and some Latin American countries before posting the TempLS result for June. But you can see it here, and it shows how TempLS calculates its interim result with interpolation. Of course, you could wait till tomorrow when Canada will probably be in.

I have also extended the range back to 1900. You can examine any month in detail. I haven't yet done the annual and decade averages back beyond 1990, but soon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

It might interesting to look at some of the Met Office forecasts and how they compared to reality so far.

 

Their forecast global temp for this year http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2014/2015-global-temp-forecast

 

For 2015-2019 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc

For 2014-2018 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc/2013

For 2013-2017 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc/decadal-fc-2012

 

While we can't say too much about the 2015 to 2019 one, the rest are looking pretty good so far.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Warmest June on record according to the JMA

 

jun_wld.png

 

1st. 2015 (+0.41°C)

2nd. 2014 (+0.33°C)

3rd. 2010, 1998 (+0.26°C)

5th. 2012 (+0.22°C)

 

gridtemp201506e.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Joint warmest June on record with 1998 at +0.76C according to the GISS.

 


 

nmaps.gif

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Nick Stokes GISS (new version) up by 0.03°C in June

 

 

The anomaly for GISS in June was 0.76°C (h/t JCH). This was just as I had expected, since TempLS mesh rose from 0.618°C to (now) 0.673°C. However, meanwhile the GISS May number increased from 0.71°C to 0.73°C, so the rise was not quite as great.

Behind that lies a story. As Olof noted, GISS this month switched from using ERSST V3b to ERSST v4 (I switched last month). They show some plots of the differences here. Here is the difference plot

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80838-sceptical-about-climate-change-reasons-and-opinion/?p=3234020

 

Effectively, a 'pause' a 'hiatus' is unprovable - even if it does happen - in any respect because of the analysis methods. This is pseudo-political point scoring (from Tamino, not you) at it's very best. Make an assertion, then search the data for anything, yes, anything, that supports that conclusion. Are we really arguing that June is the warmest ever? Climate, by convention is the average over 30 years (even the mean needs looking at, perhaps the median is better?) Whatever one gets their rocks of, I guess, but one month's data is more weather than climate (have you posted this on the wrong thread?)

 

Needless to say, Tamino has a number of papers out that rely strongly on fairly advanced linear regression techniques, so vested interests etc etc. I'd be delighted to use Tamino's methods to manage your pension, if you'd like (and I'd do it provably, too) Would you like me to do it?

Edited by VillagePlank
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

There was an error in the GISS data released a few days ago, that has since been fixed. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

 

June 2015 is now the warmest on record.

 

Top 5
 
1st: 2015: +0.80C 
2nd: 1998: +0.77C
3rd: 2009: +0.67C
4th: 2005, 2014:+0.66C
 
And the year to date
 
1st: 2015: +0.82C
2nd: 2010: +0.78C
3rd: 2007: +0.73C
4th: 2014: +0.72C
5th: 1998: +0.71C
 
 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

At 0.88C above the 20th century average, June 2015 is the warmest on record by 0.12C according to the NCDC. It's also the warmest year to date, and the warmest 12 months on record.

 

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2015 was the highest for June in the 136-year period of record, at 0.88°C (1.58°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F), surpassing the previous record set just one year ago by 0.12°C (0.22°F). This was also the fourth highest monthly departure from average for any month on record. The two highest monthly departures from average occurred earlier this year in February and March, both at 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20th century average for their respective months, while January 2007 had the third highest, at 0.89°C (1.60°F) above its monthly average.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201506

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

  NOAA up 0.03°C in June; GISS now up 0.04°C

 

 

I don't normally post separately for the NOAA NCEI global temperature anomaly index, but this month is the first where everyone is using the new V4 ERSST. There is also a revision of GISS post-V4 (thanks to GISS for the acknowledgement). So it is an opportunity too to review how well TempLS matches in the new environment.

The NOAA report has June at 0.88°C relative to 20Cen; up from 0.86°C in May. GISS is now 0.8°C, up from 0.76°C. Both these are the hottest June in the respective records, and would be close to the hottest month ever, if it were not for Feb-Mar of this year. I have described in my GISS post where it was hot and cold, with more quantitative information here; the NOAA report presents a similar account in more detail.

I have noted earlier how, as expected, TempLS mesh and GISS tend to go together, being interpolated, and NOAA and TempLS grid also have an affinity. Indeed, at times, TempLS and NOAA have been eerily close. With V4 that has been somewhat interrupted, although the general pattern still holds, and the correspondence is currently close. I'll show plots below the fold.

Incidentally, the revised GISS now shows nothing unexpected in the plot of recent monthly differences (earlier version here). Here how it looks now:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

  Record warm periods

 

 

In the previous post, I cited the NOAA June temperatures report. This noted various periods of time with average temperatures that exceeded anything comparable in the record, particularly recent twelve month periods.

Sou has been tracking the average so far in this calendar year. Steve Bloom doesn't like non-physical calendar periods, and prefers the running average. I think Sou's analysis makes sense. It is the best guide to the 2015 year average, since it uses data from that year only. One could say people shouldn't focus on arbitrary year divisions, but they do.

However, if you want running twelve month averages, they are available at the maintained active plot. Just click the buttons on the side table headed Sm. twelve month running is the default (and only) smooth. Here is an example:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
According to the ncep reanalysis data, July 2015 was the 5th warmest on record.
 
2011: 16.198
2009: 16.192
1998: 16.151
2005: 16.148
2015: 16.124
 
Wd9uzj9.png
 
The year to date is the 2nd warmest on record.
 
2010: 14.407
2015: 14.372
2007: 14.371
2005: 14.361
2014: 14.32
 

CAMqXGd.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

According to the ncep reanalysis data, July 2015 was the 5th warmest on record.

 

2011: 16.198

2009: 16.192

1998: 16.151

2005: 16.148

2015: 16.124

 

Wd9uzj9.png

 

The year to date is the 2nd warmest on record.

 

2010: 14.407

2015: 14.372

2007: 14.371

2005: 14.361

2014: 14.32

 

CAMqXGd.png

 

 

BFTV

 

I am a bit surprised by this.....

It seems to be only the 5th warmest year to date, when last month NCDC was showing the warmest year to date ever and it was rising quickly.

Aslo the fact that July was not the warmest when El Nino is now having its wicked way and according to many the graph should be rocketing by now.

I do find it very strange.

Perhaps the colder NAO is upstaging the PDO effects?

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...