Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[drgl]

Lol. But you still replied? Not a whole 0.70 above the ,51 - 80 average? Wow. Just just wow. Why are we back to '51 until '80? Its 2014.

Edited February 14, 2014 by drgl

[drgl]

That globe map doesn't half look toasty. Get the bbq out.

[knocker]

It's Valentines day, some people have lives outside of netweather...

 

 

After reading some of the posts on here I reckon it's a fair bet that some send valentine cards to themselves.

[drgl]

 

Not a whole 0.70 above the ,51 - 80 average? Wow. Just just wow. Why are we back to '51 until '80? Its 2014. 

 

Rather than try & have a dig at people (btw, personally speaking got a great life thanks, married two great kids ) can we get an answer to the question?

[Gray-Wolf]

I think we all asked these questions when we first started looking at such things drgl? In my case I read the output that each authority had about it's data set and then 'googled' about it. Not being a statistical genius ( ask sparks , he'll confer) I trust there reasoning to be sound and above board? Some agencies use 'x-y' as a base period, others use 'b-c' or 's-t' but they are all trying to accomplish the same thing by doing so?

 

As for pooh poohing the rises you need remember this is an average 'global' temp. Take a look at the anoms over the Arctic this winter, or even just DMI80N, you'll see that some areas experience very high anoms whilst others negatives.

 

You then need to muse about where 'most damage' can be done by elevated temps.

[knocker]

Sorry, didn't realise you had asked me a question. If it's the question I think it is Giss use a of base period 1951-80. Thirty years being the min. for climate purposes.

 

 

Our traditional analysis using only meteorological station data is a line plot of global annual-mean surface air temperature change, with the base period 1951-1980, derived from the meteorological station network [This is an update of Figure 6( in Hansen et al. (2001).] Uncertainty bars (95% confidence limits) are shown for both the annual and five-year means, account only for incomplete spatial sampling of data.

 

I've absolutely no idea what you mean by it's 2014 unless you have a magic ball that can deduce trends without going back.

Edited February 15, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Just a suggestion regarding trends. You can fiddle around and do your own and see, whichever side of the divide you are on, by cherry picking certain short term trends you can falsely emphasise your point.

 

http://www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html

[Gray-Wolf]

Just thinking. With the strengthening of the trade winds in force could it be that we will only see 'short' nino events? If the forcings remain will they wait until the initial 'flood back' of pent up waters spread back east and then slam the gate shut? Is this what we saw in 2010?

 

I am following the forecasting for the summer (Nino Regions) because the the 'new' untried 'long range' models predicting the onset of Nino conditions over late spring/early summer and the shorter range models are also now pointing to the event initiating. One of the 'new' techniques is predicting a 'large' Nino, large in the terms of duration which could stretch out to 18 months ( basically impacting 2 calender years) but now wonder whether their 'indicators' take into account the new , strengthened nature, of the Trades ( over recent years)?

 

We are warned that this new phenomena will reverse and so this is another variable. Just how long have we been noting these strengthened winds? Was there a lead in period where the 'forcings' were present but the results were 'getting their act together'? The other thread insist the hiatus has lasted nearly 16 years so how long were these winds strengthening before we began to feel their impacts? 3 or 4 years ( I do not believe it could be an 'instant' effect?) might be reasonable? So how long until we see the 'flip'?

 

One thing I do know is the next few years are going to be interesting. We have seen the other thread ignore the yearly global temps ( and their 'top ten' positions) even when they take the 'warmest year on record' title ( 2010) so how would a 'normal nino' , giving back to back record temps, be met by them?

 

 

I try and remind them that the drivers slowing the rate of temp increase are merely 'cyclical', and their opposite flavours will also have their period of influence ( as we saw through the 80's/90's) and that maybe the upcoming warming event signals a move toward this...... time alone will tell ( but the indicators are growing that 'the time' is now!)

 

EDIT: When I was learning how not to kill house plants I often noted that the 'bloomed' just before they died, as if nature was giving them one last chance to pass on their genes before they went. As I have aged I've also seen friends and family, when gravely ill, 'bloom' prior to their passing. If this 'Hiatus' Natures last ,best, effort to staunch the warming? When we next enter a warming augmented period will it unleash other factors ( ice free Arctic) that will so impact warming as to negate future 'cool drivers'?

 

Is this mother N's 'Swan Song' ?

Edited February 18, 2014 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

GISS temperatures for February are in, and at 0.45C above the 51-80 average, it's just the 17th warmest February on record. This ties in with the ENSO 3.4 index being at it's most negative in February since January 2012 (which had an anomaly of just +0.36C).

 

 

Meanwhile, the UAH value for February was +0.18C above the 81-10 average, and the joint 9th warmest on record (January 2012 was -0.14C).

 

 

 

It will be interesting to see how those anomalies change during the year as we move towards a more +ve ENSO state.

Edited March 13, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[BornFromTheVoid]

The JMA have February as equal to the 81-10 average, so around the 18th warmest on record.

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/feb_wld.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

As the -ve ENSO period peaked in the last 2 months, I'd expect slightly subdued global temperatures in March and April, as the ENSO and global temperature correlation is strongest with a 4 month lag. After this, I'd expect to be challenging for record high temps during the summer.

The ENSO region of the tropical Pacific is warming up, and the PDO changing to an increasingly +ve state.

 

Here are the SST changes in the Pacific over the last month.

 

Combined with a very strong easterly Kelvin wave which is likely to break into the surface water this month, a rapidly warming tropical Pacific is to be expected quite soon.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The warm global temperatures are arriving earlier than anticipated.

 

GISS has updated, and March was the 4th warmest on record at +0.7C above the 51-80 average.

 

 

That makes 2014 the 7th warmest year to date, and the 12 months from April to March the 4th warmest on record.

[knocker]

I suspect Nick Stokes is going to arrive at somewhere near that figure as well once he has sorted the duff readings.

[VillagePlank]

The warm global temperatures are arriving earlier than anticipated.

 

GISS has updated, and March was the 4th warmest on record at +0.7C above the 51-80 average.

 

 

That makes 2014 the 7th warmest year to date, and the 12 months from April to March the 4th warmest on record.

 

Why isn't the scale on that chart uniform and homogenous? Particularly, why is the banding some 4 degrees difference at the higher warming end, so, essentially, +4.000000001C is seen the same as +8C

Edited April 12, 2014 by Sparkicle

[BornFromTheVoid]

Why isn't the scale on that chart uniform and homogenous? Particularly, why is the banding some 4 degrees difference at the higher warming end, so, essentially, +4.000000001C is seen the same as +8C

 

From the GISS page here http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/

 

The end points of the color bar are either -4.1 or +4.1 or the minimum or maximum value of the data if it is outside that range

[Gray-Wolf]

I wonder how the Jet will behave this summer? We have the Arctic forcing trying to make it wiggly and a growing Nino trying to make it straight? Who will win??? I vote for a ridge over the UK and the rest can sort itself out!!!

[knocker]

Posted this in wrong thread earlier.

 

Nick Stokes

 

 

 

GISS has posted its March estimate for global temperature anomaly, and it has risen from 0.45°C in February to 0,70°C in March. That balances the drop from January to February.The TempLS comparison is murky this month, because of GHCN errors that I described here, here and here. My original estimate was a rise of 0.27°C, but after correcting a sign reversal at Sarh in Chad, that rose to 0.31°C. Then I found that NORD ADB in Greenland had September data instead of march; removing that brought the estimate back to 0.23°C. Then I found that other Greenland stations were also affected, and removing them all made the final estimate also a rise of 0.25°C. But I had little faith in it.

 

http://moyhu.blogspo...-up-by-025.html

Edited April 14, 2014 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

At 0.21C above the 81-10 average, March 2014 is the 4th warmest on record according to the JMA.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/mar_wld.html

[Gray-Wolf]

As you've said BFTV this is without any ENSO forcing so what will the rest of the year bring should May find us in Nino conditions?

[thetonynator]

I'd imagine we will see some record breaking months possibly from August/September onwards, maybe a little later, the way tings are looking at the moment!

[knocker]

The NOAA March figures for the USA are out so Global should be soon.

 

Ranked 43 coldest since 1895

[Don]

When did we last have a month with a global temperature colder than average?  Am I correct in thinking it was way back in 1985?!

Edited April 16, 2014 by Don

[BornFromTheVoid]

When did we last have a month with a global temperature colder than average?  Am I correct in thinking it was way back in 1985?!

 

Depends on the data set used and what their baseline average is. With the GISS data, which uses the 51-80 average, it looks like Feb 1994 was the last below average at -0.02C. With the NCDC data, I think it was Feb 1985 (I presume they use 51-80 too).

While with something like UAH, which uses 81-10 average, you only have to go back to Feb 2012 (lots of Februaries!)

[Don]

Depends on the data set used and what their baseline average is. With the GISS data, which uses the 51-80 average, it looks like Feb 1994 was the last below average at -0.02C. With the NCDC data, I think it was Feb 1985 (I presume they use 51-80 too).

While with something like UAH, which uses 81-10 average, you only have to go back to Feb 2012 (lots of Februaries!)

 

Thanks for the info BFTV.

[VillagePlank]

I'd imagine we will see some record breaking months possibly from August/September onwards, maybe a little later, the way tings are looking at the moment!

 

Yes, of course, we'll have record breaking months.

 

The global temperature is currently high - natural variation *ensures* - even assuming the nominal high modern base line, that some months will be high record breakers. It also *guarantees* in the absence of some global volcanic catastrophe, or such like, that we won't be seeing any record breaking low temps for quite some time since climate doesn't appear to step change over monthly, annual, or decadel time-scales. The point is how we got to this high modern base line.

Edited April 17, 2014 by Sparkicle