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Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects


BornFromTheVoid

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

 

Neither of the satellites show statistically significant cooling, especially not over any time scale relevant to the climate, as was suggested in that website.

So while there is no "correct" global temperatures measure (they are all different), I can tell you that 2 out of 3 of the claims made in that link are incorrect.

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

Neither of the satellites show statistically significant cooling, especially not over any time scale relevant to the climate, as was suggested in that website.

So while there is no "correct" global temperatures measure (they are all different), I can tell you that 2 out of 3 of the claims made in that link are incorrect.

Yes your data is robust remember this from March

 

“Global Temperatures Highest in 4,000 Years,†blared the New York Times on March 7. The Times was reporting on what it called “the most meticulous reconstruction yet of global temperatures,†contained in a study published March 8 in the journal Science by Shaun Marcott, Jeremy Shakun, Peter Clark and Alan Mix.

However, once other scientists began looking into the data in the study, called “A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years,†the reconstruction began to look far less than meticulous.

The authors of the study quietly admitted last weekend that their claim of surging temperatures can’t be supported by their data.

The establishment media outlets that reported the study with such fanfare have been largely silent on the stunning admission, although the Washington Post did report today that there is now a “controversy†over the data.

And, the New York Times has a climate blog posting that wonders “how the authors square the caveats they express here with some of the more definitive statements they made about their findings in news accounts.â€

The data in the paper came from Marcott’s Ph.D. thesis at Oregon State University in 2011, which is online. But the chart in the dissertation does not show the same warming uptick seen in the paper published in Science. And the abstract to his thesis does not mention an uptick.

Stephen McIntyre of Climate Audit looked into the research and found the study’s authors had re-dated some of the samples used to determine the findings. Without the re-dating, the research would have shown no upswing in temperatures in the 20th century.

McIntyre emailed Marcott to ask how he got the conclusions in the Science article from the data in his dissertation. Marcott replied that his reconstruction of 20th-century temperatures was probably “not robust.†In other words, probably not accurate.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Yes your data is robust remember this from March

 

“Global Temperatures Highest in 4,000 Years,†blared the New York Times on March 7. The Times was reporting on what it called “the most meticulous reconstruction yet of global temperatures,†contained in a study published March 8 in the journal Science by Shaun Marcott, Jeremy Shakun, Peter Clark and Alan Mix.

However, once other scientists began looking into the data in the study, called “A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years,†the reconstruction began to look far less than meticulous.

 

What scientists? And as for Mcintyre he's attacked a number if peer reviewed papers and when looked at in detail his arguments have been kicked into touch.

 

Response by Marcott et al.

Readers will be aware of the paper by Shaun Marcott and colleagues, that they published a couple weeks ago in the journal Science. That paper sought to extend the global temperature record back over the entire Holocene period, i.e. just over 11 kyr back time, something that had not really been attempted before. The paper got a fair amount of media coverage (see e.g. this article by Justin Gillis in the New York Times). Since then, a number of accusations from the usual suspects have been leveled against the authors and their study, and most of it is characteristically misleading. We are pleased to provide the authors’ response, below. Our view is that the results of the paper will stand the test of time, particularly regarding the small global temperature variations in the Holocene. If anything, early Holocene warmth might be overestimated in this study.

 

Update: Tamino has three excellent posts in which he shows why the Holocene reconstruction is very unlikely to be affected by possible discrepancies in the most recent (20th century) part of the record. The figure showing Holocene changes by latitude is particularly informative.

 

 

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/03/response-by-marcott-et-al/

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

So what exactly is your understanding of 20th century temps KL? Do you have another view of how global temps were through this century that is at odds with the data most of us are accustomed to?

 

If it was colder than we thought then where does that place all of the 'hottest ever' records??? Should we have many more as their 20th century competitors had their temps hiked? And what of the UHI's? were they cooler than we adjusted for and so need moving up?

 

I'm obviously a tad confuzzled so if you could link up to the data that is at odds with what we were brought up with ( and used through our lives) then we could clear up the mess.

 

Ta in advance!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

On a similar theme.

 

DC Court affirms Michael Mann's right to proceed in defamation lawsuit against National Review and CEI

Two decisions handed down July 19 in DC Superior Court affirmed climate scientist Michael Mann’s right to proceed in his defamation lawsuit against the Competitive Enterprise Institute and the National Review Online for their statements accusing him of data manipulation and fraud. The Court is not buying the Defendants arguments in their Motion to Dismiss that their statements are protected speech under the First Amendment, mere “opinion,†“rhetorical hyperbole,†or “fair comment.â€

 

 

http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/2013/07/19/dc-court-affirms-michael-manns-right-to-proceed-in-defamation-lawsuit/

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  • 2 months later...
Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Latest UAH data is out, and September was the joint 3rd warmest on record (+0.37C) with 2012, behind just 2009 (+0.41) and 2010 (+0.45C).

 

post-6901-0-26966700-1381059485_thumb.jp

 

The year to date (January to September) is the joint 5th warmest on record

 

Below are Jan to Sep temperatures (red) with the 9 month ENSO 3.4 anomaly (with a 3 month lag) in green.

 

post-6901-0-91040600-1381061024_thumb.jp

 

Data here, here and here

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

With all the Australian records for heat falling or being challenged over their winter I'm wondering if this years 'flip flop' is going to make for an interesting N.Hemisphere winter this time? 

 

Thank goodness temps are not being spiked by a Nino? I do not know what the folks looking for 'stall/drop ' in global temps will resort to once we see the next Nino spiking global temps?

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The Global State of the Climate Report is out, and ranks September as the joint 4th warmest on record, with the year to date as the joint 6th warmest on record. It was the warmest September on record for land areas in the southern hemisphere.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/9

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  • 1 month later...
Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

UAH data is out for November, and it was +0.19C above average, the joint 9th warmest since 1979. This makes January to November 2013 the joint 4th warmest on record so far.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

GISS LOTI data is out, and November was the warmest on record with an anomaly of 0.77C, ahead of 2010 (0.75) and 2005 (0.71).

 

The year to date (January to November) is the 6th warmest on record.

 

Year.....J-N

2010...0.68C

2005...0.66C

2007...0.63C

2002...0.63C

1998...0.62C

2013...0.61C

 

A December anomaly of 0.48C or above will give us 6th warmest for the year, 0.66C will give us 5th, 0.68C 4th, 0.73C will give us 3rd, but 1st and 2nd are well out of reach.

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Posted
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...
  • Weather Preferences: jack frost
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...

GISS LOTI data is out, and November was the warmest on record with an anomaly of 0.77C, ahead of 2010 (0.75) and 2005 (0.71).

 

The year to date (January to November) is the 6th warmest on record.

 

Year.....J-N

2010...0.68C

2005...0.66C

2007...0.63C

2002...0.63C

1998...0.62C

2013...0.61C

 

A December anomaly of 0.48C or above will give us 6th warmest for the year, 0.66C will give us 5th, 0.68C 4th, 0.73C will give us 3rd, but 1st and 2nd are well out of reach.

Well if !st and 2nd places are well out of reach we are obviously in a state of uncontrollable global   cooling ... Agh help !.. Keithlucky has taken over my mind ..

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Posted Image

 

This shows KL's little ice age type conditions quite well B.?

 

EDIT: From;

 

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2013&month_last=11&sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2013&year2=2013&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Japanese Meteorological Agency reporting that November, anomaly of +0.31C, was the warmest on record.

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/nov_wld.html

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

That's odd I was just going to post this.

 

Last month saw the hottest global November surface temperature on record, according to the latest data from NASA

 

Posted Image

Earth’s surface temperature in °C for each November since 1880 (compared to base period, 1951-1980). Red line is smoothing with a 15-year filter.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

That's odd I was just going to post this.

 

Last month saw the hottest global November surface temperature on record, according to the latest data from NASA

 

Posted Image

Earth’s surface temperature in °C for each November since 1880 (compared to base period, 1951-1980). Red line is smoothing with a 15-year filter.

 

Post 35 above! Just waiting of the NCDC data now.

 

To add to the JMA data, 2013 is had the warmest Autumn on record too.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Sorry BFTV I know you had already posted the data.

 

Tis grand! The graphs are a useful addition anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

NCDC data just released and it agrees with NASA and JMA, with November 2013 being the warmest November on record, with an anomaly of +0.78C above the 20th century mean.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

 

It was the 6th most anomalously warm month on record.

Jan to November is the joint 4th warmest on record.

Ocean surface temperatures were the 3rd highest on record, despite ENSO neutral conditions.

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Posted
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee

NCDC data just released and it agrees with NASA and JMA, with November 2013 being the warmest November on record, with an anomaly of +0.78C above the 20th century mean.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

 

It was the 6th most anomalously warm month on record.

Jan to November is the joint 4th warmest on record.

Ocean surface temperatures were the 3rd highest on record, despite ENSO neutral conditions.

And probably the warmest ENSO-neutral month in the record?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

And probably the warmest ENSO-neutral month in the record?

 

The correlation between ENSO and global temperatures seems strongest with a 4 month lag (using 3.4 area anomaly and UAH temperature), so those kind of comparisons are a bit more tricky. Still, you might well be right.

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Posted
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee
  • Location: Beijing and (sometimes) Dundee

Thanks for that BFTV - I hadn't realised about the time lag.

 

Certainly a big jump in the temperature anomaly from previous months ... is it just a blip?

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Latest UAH data is out, and December had an anomaly +0.265C, making it the 2nd warmest December on record after 2003 (+0.37).

 

That puts 2013 at +0.24C the 4th warmest year on record, behind 2005 (+0.26), 2010 (+0.40) and 1998 (+0.42).

It also appears to be the warmest ENSO neutral year on record.

 

EDIT: PDF report of the above http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2013/december/dec2013GTR.pdf

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

So could this years differing arrangement in climate extremes around the globe be hinting at a return of the I.P.O. ( interdecadal Pacific Oscillation)  war ocean surface phase ( and a return to rapid global warming?) or are we just shaping up for the ENSO phase to turn Nino? Could we be seeing the PDO-ve phase be struggling to maintain or could we be seeing the results of the record warming over the Arctic this past summer? Could the record ocean temps that drove Australia to it's record year be behind the years global warmth?

 

Or could it be a combination of all of the above?

 

One thing seems clear , we have another strange weather year in the offing!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Latest UAH data is out, and December had an anomaly +0.265C, making it the 2nd warmest December on record after 2003 (+0.37).

 

That puts 2013 at +0.24C the 4th warmest year on record, behind 2005 (+0.26), 2010 (+0.40) and 1998 (+0.42).

It also appears to be the warmest ENSO neutral year on record.

 

EDIT: PDF report of the above http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2013/december/dec2013GTR.pdf

 

Some of comments from the illiterati are mind boggling.

 

2013 the fourth hottest year in the UAH record

Posted Image

 

Despite this, the denial continues - from the WUWT comments

 
Lots of comments of the type "I don't believe it" and "it's about to cool down" and even "warmer = cooling". You've got to admit that WUWT houses a lot of utter nutters.
Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...
  • Weather Preferences: jack frost
  • Location: inter drumlin South Tyrone Blackwater river valley surrounded by the last last ice age...

BBBut Knocker if you hold that graph in front of any mirror it becomes obvious that temperatures are falling .....

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