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February 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Here is sunny Edmonton we are at -10.3c which is 2.7c below normal..forgot to put in January which ended up 4.9c below normal..we are now looking at 13 months in a row of below normal temps for my loc

Wettest Februaries for England and Wales on record (mm) 158.6 1833  152.7 1923 143.6 1950 143.2 1990 143.2 1977 142.1 1937 ~137. 2020 (up to 24th)

Wettest Februaries on record for England and Wales (mm) ~169 2020   158.6 1833  152.7 1923 143.6 1950 143.2 1990 143.2 1977 142.1 1937   

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17 hours ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield at 5.9C +1.7C above normal. Rainfall 61.7mm 102.7% of the monthly average.

Frosty ground you're probably surprised as you've got used to the spring like temperatures. Even with this Snow it's only been slightly below average here at best and only for one day as well. Today may make it two cool days. 

Yeah the warmth of the last two months must be playing tricks on me. 

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Sunny Sheffield at 5.7C +1.5C, Rainfall at 74.3mm 123.6% of the monthly average.

I wonder if we will be up to 100mm mark by the end of Sunday?

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7 hours ago, frosty ground said:

Yeah the warmth of the last two months must be playing tricks on me. 

Yup - I’ve felt really cold the past 3 days even though it’s only been slightly cooler than normal. A maximum temperature of 6C now feels like 2C or something to my body.

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12 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yup - I’ve felt really cold the past 3 days even though it’s only been slightly cooler than normal. A maximum temperature of 6C now feels like 2C or something to my body.

It’s the dampness and wind that’s makes it feel colder than it is

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Sunny Sheffield down to 5.6C +1.4C above average. Rainfall at 74.6mm 124.1% of the monthly average.

A rise this weekend before daytime temperatures return to more normal values although nights look to slightly above average. So a possible slow decline by next Wednesday.

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Sunny Sheffield up to 5.6C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall 109.3mm 181.9% of the monthly average.

Interestingly if you take a year from last feb til now we've had 7 months 100mm plus.

Edited by The PIT
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oh dear going to be miles out this month.I thought we would get one really cold spell,but the PV is proving too strong again.

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19 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

oh dear going to be miles out this month.I thought we would get one really cold spell,but the PV is proving too strong again.

Same here, I thought at least one cold spell by the end of the month, so no cold spell whatsoever this winter just a PV on steroids.

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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Since we are now past the half way point do we have any estimates for the month end CET based on current output.

 

I suppose it depends on whether we are treated to a cheeky northerly blast at the end of the month?!

Edited by Don
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Would say 6.5 end of month looking at current guidance. Not much change in the pattern, any cold air highly modified.

EWP meanwhile was on 61 mm to the 14th, added about 20 mm yesterday (81 mm) and GFS says about 20 mm more coming in the next ten days (average for grid, some parts of Wales and nw England much greater amounts), fairly dry pattern near end of month so estimate for now is around 100 mm. 

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1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

Would say 6.5 end of month looking at current guidance. Not much change in the pattern, any cold air highly modified.

EWP meanwhile was on 61 mm to the 14th, added about 20 mm yesterday (81 mm) and GFS says about 20 mm more coming in the next ten days (average for grid, some parts of Wales and nw England much greater amounts), fairly dry pattern near end of month so estimate for now is around 100 mm. 

Good news for my CET guess (6.6C) but not for anything else!

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20 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Would say 6.5 end of month looking at current guidance. Not much change in the pattern, any cold air highly modified.

EWP meanwhile was on 61 mm to the 14th, added about 20 mm yesterday (81 mm) and GFS says about 20 mm more coming in the next ten days (average for grid, some parts of Wales and nw England much greater amounts), fairly dry pattern near end of month so estimate for now is around 100 mm. 

I am already bust well and truly for EWP but i will gladly take 6.5 CET - that would put me tucked in nicely just behind the front runners in the annual after a poor start.

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Sunny Sheffield back up to 5.7C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall 116mm 193% of the monthly average.

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On 16/02/2020 at 18:55, summer blizzard said:

Since we are now past the half way point do we have any estimates for the month end CET based on current output.

 

Agree with posts above - we already need quite a big turnaround in the models to get below 6C before corrections 

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4 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I am already bust well and truly for EWP but i will gladly take 6.5 CET - that would put me tucked in nicely just behind the front runners in the annual after a poor start.

My EWP is also a bust for this month but CET looking good.

Edited by Don
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Went high because a SW zephy or whatever they are called would really pack a punch late in Feb and quite likely going on last 10 or 20 years, and equally likely as a N'ly, reason i didn't go stupidly high is because you rule yourself out so early in the month with an early PM flow and with my current guess, even if record breaking warm CET did occur, i would still be top 10 anyway as there is only 10 guesses warmer than mine.

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