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February 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Just now, qwertyK said:

How accurate are the GFS models? It was at one stage predicting 17C-19C on the 20th/21st, and now it is the complete opposite, cold and snowy in some places. 

I reckon we could  end below 6C or just at it, we're at 6.28C right now, that will increase or stay around the same this weekend, before falling again next week.

Beyond a week out most models should not be trusted however the models are diverging significantly at the moment because the Euro (statistically superior) kills tropical convection while the GFS has a high amplitude MJO wave and wave activity on the vortex. 

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Here is sunny Edmonton we are at -10.3c which is 2.7c below normal..forgot to put in January which ended up 4.9c below normal..we are now looking at 13 months in a row of below normal temps for my loc

Wettest Februaries for England and Wales on record (mm) 158.6 1833  152.7 1923 143.6 1950 143.2 1990 143.2 1977 142.1 1937 ~137. 2020 (up to 24th)

Wettest Februaries on record for England and Wales (mm) ~169 2020   158.6 1833  152.7 1923 143.6 1950 143.2 1990 143.2 1977 142.1 1937   

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6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Beyond a week out most models should not be trusted however the models are diverging significantly at the moment because the Euro (statistically superior) kills tropical convection while the GFS has a high amplitude MJO wave and wave activity on the vortex. 

It's been a rubbish winter. And things were looking so good up until December. Ironically, November was probably colder than January overall and maybe it will be for Ferbuary too. Certainly we had more frosty days in November, and for most days the tempreature didn't even reach 10C. Then the NAO positive anomalies began in December....and even before then in september there was those "studies" that showed we would have one of the coldest winters in 30 years. Starting to think it's just paid for by utility companies as an excuse for people to buy them. 

 

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10 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

It's been a rubbish winter. And things were looking so good up until December. Ironically, November was probably colder than January overall and maybe it will be for Ferbuary too. Certainly we had more frosty days in November, and for most days the tempreature didn't even reach 10C. Then the NAO positive anomalies began in December....and even before then in september there was those "studies" that showed we would have one of the coldest winters in 30 years. Starting to think it's just paid for by utility companies as an excuse for people to buy them. 

 

You said that we are at 6.28c in an earlier post, sounds about right, is that for the CET zone?

Should drop again today, widespread frosts last night down to -2/-3c in places.

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

You said that we are at 6.28c in an earlier post, sounds about right, is that for the CET zone?

Should drop again today, widespread frosts last night down to -2/-3c in places.

Yep, that's according to metchrck which is updated every day. It will be about 13/14c in the south but colder in the cet area on Sunday. 

 

Considering we never even got this low in January...and we started off on 10C

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2 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

Yep, that's according to metchrck which is updated every day. It will be about 13/14c in the south but colder in the cet area on Sunday. 

 

Considering we never even got this low in January...and we started off on 10C

Yes milder air moving in by this evening for the weekend then a fair bit colder early next week but the strong winds will prevent any widespread frosts.

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Sunny Sheffield down to 6.4C +2.2C above normal. Rainfall at 17.6mm 29.3% of the monthly avergae.

Big jump over the weekend likely then a drop back before another short warm blast.

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January 2020 marginally wamer than January 2016, by 0.03, so January 2020 is now the warmest on record. 

Me thinks 2020 will overtake 2016 as the warmest year, but who knows. 

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Can recommend metcheck in place of Hadley. Obviously won't give final data for the month but it is updated daily. 

Not entirely related - where does The Weather Channel get is data from? For the last week or so of February in my area, it is saying the average is around 10-11C. Google (using NOAA data) says the average is 7,whlst for half of the month Accuweather says 6C. Which is right/most accurate/up to date?

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Sunny Sheffield at 6C +1.8C above normal. Rainfall 26.5mm 44.1% of the monthly average.

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EWP tracker had reached only 10 mm after 7th, estimate 10 mm more to 12z today, then 40-50 mm indicated on ten-day GFS projection. That all adds up to 60-70 mm with about ten days left in the month. Pattern continues rather unsettled beyond then, we could easily reach 100 mm this month (which is rather wet for February as compared to normal for December). 

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Sunny Sheffield at 6.3C +2.1C above normal . Rainfall 56mm 93.2% of the monthly average. Looks like a wet month coming up .....

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Although it does depend on the orientation of the high exactly (todays GFS would produce a Fohn effect for example) its notable that the GFS and Euro operationals are both now suggesting a pressure build around day 8 (at least initially cool) which would stand a good chance of lasting most of the remainder of the month. That may suggest that a CET in the 5-6C range is the most likely outcome (it also means we will look more like winter 08 than 07 or 14). 

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6 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Although it does depend on the orientation of the high exactly (todays GFS would produce a Fohn effect for example) its notable that the GFS and Euro operationals are both now suggesting a pressure build around day 8 (at least initially cool) which would stand a good chance of lasting most of the remainder of the month. That may suggest that a CET in the 5-6C range is the most likely outcome (it also means we will look more like winter 08 than 07 or 14). 

The February CET has in fact not finished in the 5s since 2008, which is a notable statistic given we have had four very mild Februarys since then (CET 6*C and above), and also three fairly cold Februarys in 2010, 2013 and 2018. 

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3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Surprised how mild it has been, not really felt it with the exception of a few days.

I'm not really surprissd, January was mild too.  Granted there has been significantly more snow than January and where I live we've already had three days of frost , we had none by this time last month 

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Sunny Sheffield at 5.9C +1.7C above normal. Rainfall 61.7mm 102.7% of the monthly average.

Frosty ground you're probably surprised as you've got used to the spring like temperatures. Even with this Snow it's only been slightly below average here at best and only for one day as well. Today may make it two cool days. 

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