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February 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Sunny Sheffield down to 5.6C +1.3C above normal. Rainfall unchanged with only trace conditions yesterday.

Unlikely to break our record for Feb so it looks to be the 2nd wettest on record.

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Here is sunny Edmonton we are at -10.3c which is 2.7c below normal..forgot to put in January which ended up 4.9c below normal..we are now looking at 13 months in a row of below normal temps for my loc

Wettest Februaries for England and Wales on record (mm) 158.6 1833  152.7 1923 143.6 1950 143.2 1990 143.2 1977 142.1 1937 ~137. 2020 (up to 24th)

Wettest Februaries on record for England and Wales (mm) ~169 2020   158.6 1833  152.7 1923 143.6 1950 143.2 1990 143.2 1977 142.1 1937   

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It's going to be a close call for the wettest February, there has been a lot of rain around in the last two days so I will not be surprises if we break the record. Definitely into second place now.

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13 minutes ago, snowray said:

It's going to be a close call for the wettest February, there has been a lot of rain around in the last two days so I will not be surprises if we break the record. Definitely into second place now.

What about wind? Got to be one of the windiest Febs. 

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

6.5c to the 28th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

6.3C final figure?

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40 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Looks like February 2020 is the wettest month for England and Wales since January 2014

 

I should think so too!

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2 hours ago, snowray said:

It's going to be a close call for the wettest February, there has been a lot of rain around in the last two days so I will not be surprises if we break the record. Definitely into second place now.

24hr totals from 06z on the 28th to 06z today are pretty extensively above 10mm, only really the most eastern counties of the country are below that, and I'd guess the 30hr total from 06z yesterday to 12z today would likely have most of those running above 10mm as well.

I suppose what I'm trying to say is it is IMO 100% certain the record is gone (partly thanks to the extra day, had it ended yesterday it may have been close) and now it is only a matter of how far do we extend the record and how far up the all time wettest months list we climb.

Should end up over 160mms. Does anyone have a list of wettest ever months, as I do wonder where this run ranks in that pantheon. I'm guessing with a push we may end up close to top 30?

Edited by kold weather
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1 hour ago, Don said:

6.3C final figure?

No because don't forget it will take another dive today again - unfortunately we are out the equation for winning now, its just a case of how high in the top 10 we will finish, i was hoping it would have hit 6.6 on todays update then only take a 0.1 hit today and have a miracle of no downward correction and was hoping for outright win at 6.5 but looks like i will be about 0.4 out in reality.

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12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No because don't forget it will take another dive today again - unfortunately we are out the equation for winning now, its just a case of how high in the top 10 we will finish, i was hoping it would have hit 6.6 on todays update then only take a 0.1 hit today and have a miracle of no downward correction and was hoping for outright win at 6.5 but looks like i will be about 0.4 out in reality.

I don't think it will drop any more than 0.1C today, though?  Anything from 6.0 to 6.3C final?  Won't be long until we find out (unless there are similar issues to January!)  Yes, we are out of the equation to win now!

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2 minutes ago, Don said:

I don't think it will drop any more than 0.1C today, though?  Anything from 6.0 to 6.3C final?  Won't be long until we find out (unless there are similar issues to January!)  Yes, we are out of the equation to win now!

Don't know whether to change March's prediction now and go really high, wouldn't take many days like the GFS is showing with 17c Max's all over the country to make it a record breaker.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Don't know whether to change March's prediction now and go really high, wouldn't take many days like the GFS is showing with 17c Max's all over the country to make it a record breaker.

Yes, I'm thinking of perhaps going higher than I was originally thinking.  Will leave it until after the 12z runs.

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1 hour ago, kold weather said:

 

Should end up over 160mms. Does anyone have a list of wettest ever months, as I do wonder where this run ranks in that pantheon. I'm guessing with a push we may end up close to top 30?

For argument sake, lets say it ends at 160.0mm exactly, it wouldn't even be in the top 50 

174 or 175mm just about in top 30. 

Edited by Weather-history
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2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Don't know whether to change March's prediction now and go really high, wouldn't take many days like the GFS is showing with 17c Max's all over the country to make it a record breaker.

I wouldn't trust it. GFS predicted the same for mid to late February with up to 19C. Believe it would take more than a few 17C days to make it a "record breaker", look at March 2017, I believe that was the warmest, with a few 20C days. TWO is very bullish with its claim for records being broken, just a few days into january it claimed we would have broken the 1916 CET record. I believe this March will be about average give or take a little milder or cooler. Chance of it being colder than February I believe actually. This Feb I don't think we've had a full week (at least not here in the south) of sub 10c temps, checked this weeks weather forecast and its around-below average with around 7-8C highs and lows of 3-0C 

Edited by qwertyK
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23 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

I wouldn't trust it. GFS predicted the same for mid to late February with up to 19C. Believe it would take more than a few 17C days to make it a "record breaker", look at March 2017, I believe that was the warmest, with a few 20C days. TWO is very bullish with its claim for records being broken, just a few days into january it claimed we would have broken the 1916 CET record. I believe this March will be about average give or take a little milder or cooler. Chance of it being colder than February I believe actually. This Feb I don't think we've had a full week (at least not here in the south) of sub 10c temps, checked this weeks weather forecast and its around-below average with around 7-8C highs and lows of 3-0C 

Think i am going to stay with my 7.3 for march - a tad above average - was thinking of upping it to over 8 - reason being the end you can never rule out the last week being in the genuinely warm category - and that isn't a rarity either.

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2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

For argument sake, lets say it ends at 160.0mm exactly, it wouldn't even be in the top 50 

174 or 175mm just about in top 30. 

Ok, shouldn't make it to top 30 then which does rather show just exceptionally wet some of the other months were.

Top 50 however does seem likely given we are likely to sail past 160mm (if I were to guess 165-170 is the range, probably at the lower end)

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There are two sets of numbers being discussed, the EWP (Hadley) run in a lower range than the UKMO reported "average for England" as I can see from comparing 1990, the month being passed. The EWP value for 1990 was 143.2 mm. So that is 50 mm less than the value tracked by the UKMO in their tweet. Touch or go whether we edge past 1833 in the longer EWP records. Probably will given that we were at 149 mm after 27th and the map of 24h rainfalls for 28th looks to be at least 12-15 mm more. Today might have added a few more. Let's say 165 mm is the most likely landing spot (1833 was 158.6 mm, and hey 1833? as in May 1833?) ...

In terms of overall ranking, I suppose February is playing with ten men so to speak given its shorter length (even this year) although it seems to go on forever. If we ranked months by totals, 165 mm would rank 43rd behind this number of other months  (3 Jan, 1 Mar, 0 Apr-Jun, 1 Jul, 3 Aug, 4 Sep, 7 Oct, 11 Nov, 12 Dec). From 160.0 to 165.0 mm the month passes another 14 months so that 160 mm would be 57th place.

If we go on a per-diem basis that means the 30-day months need 170.7 mm and the 31-day months 176.4 mm to beat a 165 mm leap year February (which itself needs 164.3 mm to beat 28-day 1833). That eliminates 13 of the 42 months finishing ahead of Feb 2020. So on a per diem basis Feb 2020 could finish about 30th. Feb 2020 would only need about 167 mm to match the per diem of March 1947, at 177.5 mm the only March ahead of the likely finish for Feb 2020 (Mar 1981 was 160.3 mm). If Feb managed to get to 170 mm it would eliminate another five ahead to get 2020 to top 25 status. I don't see it going beyond 170 mm.

The leap year factor had little impact on the February rankings. The only leap years in the current top 20 are 1768 (12th), 1812 (16th), 1848 (10th) and 1916 (8th). It should be noted that 1900 which appears at 9th place was not a leap year. 

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3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Wettest Februaries on record for England and Wales (mm)

~166 2020  (up to 28th)

158.6 1833 
152.7 1923
143.6 1950
143.2 1990
143.2 1977
142.1 1937 

Decent rise there, looks like we will go above 170, could end up being close to a top 30 finish after all, despite being a shorter month than a normal calander month by 1-2 days. Impressive!

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