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February 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

6.8c to the 24th

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

Impressive that there was another rise despite some northern areas having snow yesterday- unfortunately for the coldies, most of the CET zone was in the milder air

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Here is sunny Edmonton we are at -10.3c which is 2.7c below normal..forgot to put in January which ended up 4.9c below normal..we are now looking at 13 months in a row of below normal temps for my loc

Wettest Februaries for England and Wales on record (mm) 158.6 1833  152.7 1923 143.6 1950 143.2 1990 143.2 1977 142.1 1937 ~137. 2020 (up to 24th)

Wettest Februaries on record for England and Wales (mm) ~169 2020   158.6 1833  152.7 1923 143.6 1950 143.2 1990 143.2 1977 142.1 1937   

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First snow of the year for us in southern Essex tonight in the form of sleet, some snow accumulations possible on thursday morning according to weather.com. The first three nights of March where I am will also see sleet or snow. What's the odds on March being colder than January or Feb? 

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5 hours ago, qwertyK said:

First snow of the year for us in southern Essex tonight in the form of sleet, some snow accumulations possible on thursday morning according to weather.com. The first three nights of March where I am will also see sleet or snow. What's the odds on March being colder than January or Feb? 

I wouldn't bet the farm, but could be worth a tenner !

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12 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Wettest Februaries for England and Wales on record (mm)

158.6 1833 
152.7 1923
143.6 1950
143.2 1990
143.2 1977
142.1 1937
~137. 2020 (up to 24th)

Could be a somewhat close run thing, the frontal system tomorrow morning (which obviously won't add huge totals due to heaviest stuff limited to the south, but it all adds up) and then another system on Friday and again on Saturday. Add a small amount for the last 2 days thanks to the showers and we aren't going to be far away from the record. Top 3 is a certainty, top 2 highly likely as well IMO. Record is up for grabs...

Edited by kold weather
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Sunny Sheffield back to 5.8C +1.5C above normal. Rainfall 181mm 301.2% of the monthly average

Just 21.6mm needed to break the record for us in Sheffield. Going to be close. .

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Since the EWP has passed the last realistic forecast (135 mm) scoring is now more or less guaranteed for the month.

Top scoring forecasters in monthly and annual points. The average error portion has been updated but is rather skewed if we compare 2/3 with 3/3 and the 2/3 didn't try their luck with February. So I will pass on that portion until we get further into the contest. Thinking that next month 3/4 will be the minimum requirement for ranking of average error.

____ FEB 2020 EWP contest _____________________ Annual contest (after 3 months)

Rank __ Forecaster _________ Fcst __ Pts __________ Forecaster __________ Total points

_ 01 ___ Prolonged SnowLover _ 135 __ 10.0 ________ Robbie Garrett _______ 26.75

_ 02 ___ Robbie Garrett _______ 122 ___ 9.84 _______ Emmett Garland ______ 25.46

_ 03 ___ Godber1 ____________ 120 ___ 9.48^ ______ Reef _______________ 24.18

_ 04 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather ____ 112.8 __ 9.36 _______ Godber1 ____________ 22.22

_ 05 ___ Mr TOAD ___________ 101 ___ 9.20 ________DR(S)NO ___________ 21.81

_ 06 ___ Igloo _______________100 ___ 9.04 ________Stationary Front ______21.62

_ 07 ___ DR(S)NO ___________ 120 ___ 9.00^^^______mb018538 __________21.20 

_ 08 ___ Mulzy ______________ 100 ___ 8.96 ________Don _______________20.63

_ 09 ___ Mr Maunder __________ 95 ___ 8.71 ________J10 _______________ 20.41

_ 10 ___ Mapantz _____________ 95 ___ 8.63 ________Radiating Dendrite ___19.83

_ 11 ___ Let It Snow! __________ 94.4 __ 8.39 ________Timmytour _________ 19.66

_ 12 ___ syed2878 ____________94 ___ 8.23 ________ Mr TOAD __________ 18.99

_ 13 ___ Timmytour ___________ 93 ___ 8.07 ________Jonboy ____________ 18.94

_ 14 ___ Weather26 ___________92 ___ 7.91 ________ Twilight ____________18.93

_ 15 ___ Emmett Garland ______ 88 ___ 7.75 ________Kentspur ___________ 18.93

_ 16 ___ DAVID SNOW ________88 ___ 7.67 ________ Midlands Ice Age ____ 18.26

_ 17 ___ brmbrmcar __________ 86 ___ 7.42 ________ Relativistic _________ 18.23

_ 18 ___ snowray ____________ 86 ___ 7.34 ________ brmbrmcar _________ 18.23

_ 19 ___ beet _______________ 86 ___ 7.26 ________ Dog Toffee _________ 17.54

_ 20 ___ Pegg24 ____________ 80 ___ 6.94 ________ Bobd29 ____________ 17.43

______________________________________________________________

In the scoring for Feb, ^ symbol(s) indicate days late, 0.2 deductions per day.

Later duplicate entries are reduced by 0.08 (the full interval between scores is 0.16).

These are the reasons why some scoring may not appear to descend in the same order

as the forecast errors. 

In the annual contest, Radiating Dendrite has only entered two contests, the others in the

top twenty have entered all three. 

... Will post a summary of annual scoring from 21st to end of the pack of regular entrants before 

the thread closes in March. If you're wondering how you did in February, and you're below 80 mm

then check the order of forecasts (table on page four) and count down from Pegg24 at 80 mm to your

forecast. Deduct 0.16 points per rank below that forecast (and adjust by duplicate entry or late penalty).

In general terms the annual scoring has tightened up since almost all the front runners added small scores

and many of the chase pack to trailing third added larger scores. So in other words, keep trying, nobody

is that far behind at this stage. 

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I must be a country mile behind in EWP - if i remember right i have gone really low the last 2 months.

EDIT : If i could somehow get over the line in CET though i would be back in that race.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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More rain/snow to come in the next couple of days after the rain, sleet and snow earlier today, should hit the 3rd wettest February spot quite easily I would think.

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First snowfall of the year (and probably last for feb anyway) in western essex and the easternmost areas of london, was quite heavy at times but didn't settle, albeit it did settle in much of east anglia and northern essex. Heavier than I expected, shows how useless weather apps are given it was heavily snowing yet all my apps claimed it was raining, and it said snow would start at 10am when it started around 8am. 

To think this day last year it was 17-19C lol .

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Sunny Sheffield 5.7C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall 182.8mm 304.2% of the monthly average.

Funny old month. Very mild with a few periods on the cool side. Despite being mild snow has fallen on 5 days and sleet on 5 others. No lying Snow at the station some on the moors but only visible on 4 days. Very lucky to have seen a flake considering how mild the month is.

With rain being downgraded for Saturday very much against a new record for us. Feb 1977 maybe safe after all.

Edited by The PIT
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Looks like we could finish as high as 165 mm for EWP. LG picked the wrong month to jump from his customary 200 mm to 500 mm (that might actually verify in some parts of Wales). At 200 he could have been fighting for the win (see table of scoring above based on any outcome from current 145 to 270 mm, that's where LG moves out of last spot. Perhaps my method needs to be refined to a skew-T curve because 500 mm is probably a better forecast than many.

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Based on an estimated final CET of 6.4C, this winter looks set to join only five others since 1659 that have seen the aggregate of the  absolute difference of each month with November  (ie (ABS(Sum(Dec CET - Nov CET, JAn CET - Nov CET, Feb CET-Nov CET)) register as less than 1.  The last year to do so was 2016/7 but you have to go back to 1936/7 for the year previous to that. 

Two of our winter months would have been warmer than November. This has happened in 16 winters since 1659.  Not surprisingly the two we have had this century are as above 2016/7 and 2019/20.  ( three warmer winter months have occured on 11 occasions, the last being in 1988).

Having at least two winter months warmer than November is something that happens on average just under once every 12 years., though in reality these do tend to occur in batches rather than strung out.  We've had 5 such winters in the last 40 years, but  in the  80 winters between 1850 and 1930 there were 10, and the period still included the second longest period ever between such winters (39 years 1871/2 to 1910/2).

In the last 50 years, on the four occasions there have been at least two winter months colder than November, the ensuing March has been warm, averaging over 8C

 



 

 

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1 minute ago, Timmytour said:

Based on an estimated final CET of 6.4C, this winter looks set to join only five others since 1659 that have seen the aggregate of the  absolute difference of each month with November  (ie (ABS(Sum(Dec CET - Nov CET, JAn CET - Nov CET, Feb CET-Nov CET)) register as less than 1.  The last year to do so was 2016/7 but you have to go back to 1936/7 for the year previous to that. 

Two of our winter months would have been warmer than November. This has happened in 16 winters since 1659.  Not surprisingly the two we have had this century are as above 2016/7 and 2019/20.  ( three warmer winter months have occured on 11 occasions, the last being in 1988).

Having at least two winter months warmer than November is something that happens on average just under once every 12 years., though in reality these do tend to occur in batches rather than strung out.  We've had 5 such winters in the last 40 years, but  in the  80 winters between 1850 and 1930 there were 10, and the period still included the second longest period ever between such winters (39 years 1871/2 to 1910/2).

In the last 50 years, on the four occasions there have been at least two winter months colder than November, the ensuing March has been warm, averaging over 8C

 

What has the summer been like those years?

 

I think march may actually be colder than feb or Jan, or about the same, bar a few mild days 

1 minute ago, Timmytour said:



 

 

 

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10 hours ago, Weather-history said:


Wettest Februaries for England and Wales on record (mm)

158.6 1833 
152.7 1923
~146  2020 (up to 26th Feb)
143.6 1950
143.2 1990
143.2 1977
142.1 1937

So could the record just about go depending on what we get today and tomorrow (and bearing in mind some places will also have snow melt from this morning's snow to take into account as well!) 

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1 hour ago, Weather26 said:

So could the record just about go depending on what we get today and tomorrow (and bearing in mind some places will also have snow melt from this morning's snow to take into account as well!) 

Given we are at 146mm upto 26th so that is not including yesterday rain nor any of todays, the record is almost certain to fall now, indeed we may be over the record at this point already, and tomorrows rain will just give us daylight from 2nd place.

Impressive to see such a wet February, we desperately need a dry month or two.

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Just now, kold weather said:

Given we are at 146mm upto 26th so that is not including yesterday rain nor any of todays, the record is almost certain to fall now, indeed we may be over the record at this point already, and tomorrows rain will just give us daylight from 2nd place.

Impressive to see such a wet February, we desperately need a dry month or two.

Probably not much consellation now but at least it means if we have a hot or drier than average summer, there is no chance of drought.

Ironic, I read last year that the EA were warning that England could face water shortages by 2035, yet at the same time winters are supposed to be getting wetter like our one now. 

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