February 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[summer blizzard]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

where do we compare at this stage to 2012 - wonder if we can break the Annual rainfall record?

Q1 2012 was probably drier than average given Feb and March. It was April-December that the rain came.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Q1 2012 was probably drier than average given Feb and March. It was April-December that the rain came.

Was 2012 the wettest overall for EWP? - presume it was given England was 1st and Wales 3rd wettest, NI was dryer though.

[summer blizzard]

6 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Was 2012 the wettest overall for EWP? - presume it was given England was 1st and Wales 3rd wettest, NI was dryer though.

Third behind 1872 and 1768. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/monthly/HadEWP_monthly_qc.txt 

[Roger J Smith]

Combined CET - EWP rankings for winter (and annual contest to date) 2019-20

After successfully opening the CET file, here are the combined rankings of all participants so far. The CET contest allows a full ranking for everybody who entered any of the three contests. (you drop out of the main scoring table there if you miss more than two in the contest year). The EWP ranks are simply the sum of scores to date. I will mark one-month CET entrants with an asterisk if they did not enter March, because that would mean they are not going to appear in future CET scoring ranks. The ranks show all CET participants, as there are no cases of EWP forecasters who did not enter the CET contest, so then the only-CET forecasters appear where their CET rank places them. The number in brackets after the average rank is the overall rank of forecasters in the combined ranking contest (skipping each CET-only rank). 

There were 154 CET rankings and 132 of them had EWP rankings. At this early stage I don't mark those few cases where the number of CET and EWP entries is different. Nor do I show how many contests have been entered almost all of the one-contest entrants can be seen from the asterisks. 

Rank_FORECASTER ______ CET __ EWP ___ average _[]__ Rank_FORECASTER _____ CET __ EWP __ average

01 _ mb018538 ____________ 1 ___ 7 ______ 4.0 (T1) __[]__ 78 _ appleUK123*__________ 92 ___48 ____ 70.0* (64)

02 _ Stationary Front ________ 2 ___ 6 ______ 4.0 (T1)__[]___79 _ ARW Weatherman*_____ 78 ___63 ____ 70.5* (65)

03 _ Reef _________________ 6 ___ 3 ______ 4.5 (3) ___[]__ 80 _ sawan*_______________ 25 __ 118____ 71.5* (66)  

04 _ dancerwithwings _______ 4 ___ ---  _____ 4.0 ______[]__ 81 _ daniel _______________ 110 ___34 ____ 72.0 (67) 

05 _ Froze were the Days ____7 ___ ---  ______7.0 ______[]__82 _ ghoneym* _____________ 57 ___89 ____ 73.0* (68)

06 _ Don _________________ 9 ___ 8 _______8.5 (4) ___[]__ 83 _ mizzle*_______________ 79 ___ 68 ____ 73.5* (69)

07 _ timmytour ____________ 8 ___11 ______ 9.5 (5) ____[]__84 _ jonboy ______________ 135 ___13 ____ 74.0 (70)

08 _ Quicksilver1989 _______10 ___ ---  _____10.0 ______[]__T85 _ChrisBell-not-the-wxman* 21 __128 ____ 74.5* (T71) 

09 _ DR(S)NO ____________ 18 ___ 5 ______11.5 (6) ___[]__ T85 _ Jeff C ______________116 ___33 ____ 74.5 (T71)

10 _ Kentspur _____________11 __T14 _____ 12.5 (7) ___[]__ T85 _ SLEETY ____________107 ___42 ____ 74.5 (T71)

11 _ Man with Beard ________13 ___ ---  ____ 13.0 ______[]__ 88 _ cymro _______________ 97 ___53 ____ 75.0 (74)

12 _ Weather26 ____________5 ___26 ______15.5 (8) ___[]__ 89 _ Winter Hill* ___________ 53 ___99 ____ 76.0* (75)

13 _ syed2878 ____________ 16 ___21 _____ 18.5 (9) ___[]__ 90 _ Summer Blizzard_______77 ___---_____ 77.0 

T14_ pinball wizard _________15 ___23 _____ 19.0 (T10)_[]__ 91 _ 'cold is best'*_________109 __ T45 ____ 77.0*(76)

T14_ Dog Toffee ___________19 ___19 _____ 19.0 (T10) _[]__ 92 _ stewfox _____________ 75 ___81 ____ 78.0 (77)

16 _ Thundery Wintry Showers _ 14 ___ 27 _____ 20.5 (12)__[]__T93_ AWD*______________ 83 ___75 ____ 79.0* (T78)

T17 _ Mulzy ______________ 24 ___ 30 _____ 27.0 (13)__[]__ T94_ Storming15* _________52 __106 ____ 79.0* (T78)

T17 _ Duncan McAlister _____26 ___ --- _____ 27.0 _____[]__ T94_ Neil N ______________120 __ 38 ____ 79.0 (T78)

19 _ Mr Maunder __________ 28 ___31 _____ 29.5 (14) __[]__T96_ Matt Tarrant* _________ 72 ___88 ____ 80.0* (T81) 

20 _ Anthony Burden _______ 31 ___---_____ 31.0_______[]_ T96 _ Summer of 95* _______ 43 __117 ____ 80.0* (T81)

21 _ General Cluster _______ 41 ___22 _____ 31.5 (15)___[]_ 98_  B87 _________________ 34 __130 ____82.0 (83)

T22 _SteveB______________33 ___37 _____ 35.0 (T16)__[]_ T99_ shuggee* ____________ 71 ___94 ____82.5* (T84) 

T22 _Roger J Smith________ 35 ___35 _____ 35.0 (T16) __[]_T99_ Let It Snow! __________108 ___57 ____ 82.5* (T84)

24 _ snowray _____________ 47 ___24 _____ 35.5 (18) ___[]_T99_That ECM* ___________124 ___61 ____ 82.5* (T84)

25 _ Summer Sun _________ 36 ___---______ 36.0_______[]_ 102 _ Carl46Wrexham _______73 ___95 ____ 84.0 (87)

T26_ The PIT _____________ 3 ___70 ______36.5 (T19) __[]_103 _ red1cell*______________93 ___77 ____ 85.0* (88)

T26 _Relativistic ___________56 __T17 _____36.5 (T19) __[]_104 _ freeze ______________ 122 ___49 ____ 85.5 (89)

T26 _Born from the Void_____44 ___29 _____ 36.5 (T19)__ []_105 _ Tom W* ______________89 __ T86 ____ 87.5*(90)

29 _ Feb1991Blizzard _______12 ___64 _____ 38.0 (22)___[]_106 _ Rollo* _______________ 76 __ 102 ____ 89.0* (91)

30 _ Blast from the Past _____30 ___47 _____ 38.5 (23)___[]_107 _ Booferking ____________ 99 ___80 ____ 89.5 (92)

31 _ Robbie Garrett ________ 81 ___ 1 _____ 41.0 (24)___[]_108 _ Odd Spot*_____________ 82 ___98 ____ 90.0* (93)

T32 _ Igloo _______________ 27 ___56 _____ 41.5 (T25)__[]_109 _ V for Very Cold*________104 ___84 ____ 94.0* (94)

T32 _ coldest winter________ 17 ___66 _____ 41.5 (T25)__[]_110 _ Dean E* ______________134 ___55 ____ 94.5* (95)

34 _ brmbrmcar ___________ 70 __T17 _____ 43.5 (27) __[]_111 _ dickie1965*____________ 96 ___ ---  ____ 96.0*

35 _bobd29 ______________ 68 ___20 _____ 44.0 (28) __[]_112 _ bullseye* _____________ 113 ___79 ____ 96.0* (96)

T36 _stargazer ____________50 ___40 _____ 45.0 (T29)__[]_113 _ moorlander* ___________ 98 ___97 ____ 97.5* (97)

T36 _Andrew R ___________ 45 ___--- _____ 45.0 ______[]_114 _ icykev* _______________132 ___62 ____ 99.0* (98)

T36 _February 1978 ________38 ___52 _____ 45.0 (T29)__[]_115 _ lewis028* ____________ 149 ___50 ____ 99.5* (99)

T36 _Mapantz _____________49 ___41 _____ 45.0 (T29)__[]_116 _ Walsall Wood Snow ____ 100 ___ --- ___ 100.0

T36 _Kirkcaldy Weather _____ 65 ___25 _____ 45.0 (T29)__[]_117 _ Jonathan F.* __________111 ___91 ___ 101.0* (100)

41 _davehsug _____________63 ___28 _____ 45.5 (33) ___[]_118 _ Ricky cor* ____________125 ___82 ___ 103.5* (101)

42 _ Selliso* ______________ 23 ___69 _____ 46.0* (34) __[]_ 119 _ joggs* _______________ 94 __ 115 ___ 104.5* (102)

43 _ Sky Full* _____________ 29 ___ 67 _____48.0* (35)__[]_120 _ stratty* ______________ 102 __ 111 ___ 106.5* (103)

44 _ Weather-history ________46 ___51 _____ 48.5 (36) __[]_121 _ CheesepuffScott _______ 126 __ 90 ___ 108.0 (104)

45 _ Joneseye _____________54 ___44 _____ 49.0 (T37) _[]_122_ ribster*________________143 ___76 ___109.5* (105)

46 _ Radiating Dendrite _____ 88 ___10 _____ 49.0 (T37)__[]_T123_ bazza118* ____________95 __129 ___ 112.0* (T106)

T47_ Virtualsphere __________68 ___32 _____ 50.0 (T39) _[]_T123 _  john888* ___________ 151 ___73 ___ 112.0* (T106)

T47 _J10 _________________ 91 ___ 9 ______50.0 (T39) _[]_125 _ snowsummer* _________139 __T86 ___ 112.5* (108)

49 _ Twilight _______________87 __ T14 ____ 50.5 (41) __[]_126 _ mark wells*____________103 __ 123 ___ 113.0* (109)

50 _ Fozfoster _____________ 51 ___--- _____ 51.0______[]_127 _ Tony Beets* ___________ 121 __ 108 ___ 114.5* (110)

51 _ Norrance _____________ 40 ___65 _____ 52.5 (42) __[]_ 128 _ Kentish Man __________ 115 ___ --- ___115.0 

T52_ Emmett Garland ______ 106 ___ 2 ______54.0 (43)__[]_ 129 _ Leon1* _______________ 146 ___85 ___ 115.5* (111)

T52_ Cyclonic Happiness ____ 54 ___--- _____ 54.0______[]_130 _ shunter*_______________ 112 __ 120 ___ 116.0* (112)

54 _ Godber.1 ____________105 ___ 4 ______54.5 (44) __[]_131 _ Earthshine*_____________ 118 __ 116 ___ 117.0* (113)

T55_ Mr TOAD ___________101 ___12 _____ 56.5 (T45)__[]_132 _ Ice Day* _______________123 __ 112 ___ 117.5* (114)

T55_ coopsy*______________42 ___71 _____ 56.5*(T45)__[]_133 _ cal* __________________ 128 __ 109 ___ 118.5* (115) 

57 _ swfc* ________________ 22 ___92 _____ 57.0* (47)__[]_134 _ backtrack ______________127 __ 110 ___ 118.5* (116)

58 _ DAVID SNOW _________80 ___ 36 _____ 58.0 (48) __[]_135 _ Connor Bailey Degnan* ___119 ___---  ___ 119.0*

59 _ Shillitocet (+two) _______61^ ___58 _____59.5 (49) __[]_136 _ loubie_4*_______________136 __ 103 ___ 119.5* (117)

T60 _Jack Wales* __________48 ___ 72 _____ 60.0*(50) __[]_137 _ Ali 1977* ______________ 140 __ 100 ___ 120.0* (118)

T60 _BARRY*_____________ 60 ___--- _____ 60.0*______[]_138 _ mother nature rocks* _____137 __ 104 ___ 121.5* (119)

62 _ Cheeky Monkey* ______ 20 ___101_____ 60.5* (51)__[]_139 _ Katharine Basso* ________141 __ 105 ___ 123.0* (120)

63 _ Polar Gael ____________39 ___83 _____ 61.0 (52) __[]_140 _ Day 10* ________________152 ___96 ___ 124.0* (121)

T64 _Mark Bayley __________62 ___--- _____ 62.0______[]_ 141 _ Barry Reynolds* _________117 __ 132 ___ 124.5* (122)

T64 _seaside60 ___________ 85 ___39 _____ 62.0 (53)___[]_142 _ nicknacknoo* ___________ 138 __ 114 ___ 126.0* (123)

65 _ pegg24 ______________ 67 ___60 _____ 63.5 (54) __[]_143 _ badgers01* _____________129 __ 124 ___ 126.5* (124)

66 _ sundog ______________ 64 ___--- _____ 64.0______ []_144 _ raul sbd* _______________ 142 __ 113 ___ 127.5* (125)

67 _ damianslaw ___________66 ___--- _____ 66.0 ______[]_145 _ blizzard91*______________131 __ 125 ___ 128.0* (126)

68 _ lottiekent _____________86 ___43 _____ 64.5 (55) __[]_146 _ Leo97t* ________________ 130 __ 127 ___ 128.5* (127)

T69_ Diagonal Red Line ____ 37 ___ 93 _____65.0 (T56) __[]_147 _ Lettucing Gutted _________ 133 __ 131 ___ 132.0 (128)

T69 _Midlands Ice Age _____114 ___16 _____ 65.0 (T56) __[]_ T148_ jeremy shockey* ________148 __ 122 ___ 135.0* (T129)

T72_ Beet _______________ 59 ___74 ______66.5 (T58)__[]_ T148 _ Northern Lights* ________144 __ 126 ___ 135.0* (T129)

T72 _I Remember Atlantic 252__74 ___59 _____ 66.5 (T58)__[]_ 150 _ Big Dave* ______________150  __ 121 ___ 135.5* (131)

74 _ prolongedSnowLover ___90 __ T45 _____ 67.5 (60) __[]_ 151 _ Steve Murr* _____________153  __ 119 ____ 136.0* (132)

T75_ Ultima Thule*_________ 58 ___78 _____ 68.0* (61) _ []_ 152 _ Jules.P*________________ 145 ___ ---  ___ 145.0*

T75_ legritter* _____________84 ___54 _____ 69.0* (62) _ []_153 _ Blue_Skies_Do_I_See* ____ 147 ___ ---  ___ 147.0* 

77 _ Senior Ridge __________32 __ 107______69.5 (63) __[]_154 _ Timbo*_________________ 154 ___ ---  ___ 154.0*

___________________________________________________________________________

^ Shillitocet CET ranking changed from 72nd to 61st by merger of two previous entrants (S and S-two). I had already ignored S-two in determining ranks so the only changes come to those who were between 61st and 71st, they all drop one spot. A few other ranks had variations. Changes have been made to the table. 

 

 

Edited March 4, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[J10]

As per above, I have merged the scores for Shillitocet and Shillitocettwo.

It has no real impact in the rankings and the top 30 are uneffected, but here are the slightly revised figures for completeness.

Feb 2020 CET.xlsx

Edited March 4, 2020 by J10

[Weather-history]

Hadley UKP has February 2020 at  a whopping 169.9mm

 

 

 

[Roger J Smith]

Good to have that final value. The scoring was going to be the same for any outcome between 128.6 and 267.4 mm.