February 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Weather-history]

Already the wettest February since 2014, which is no surprise and there have been only 4 wetter Februarys since and including 2000.

 

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 17th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

So the EWP has rapidly increased to 97 mm by 16th (adding a record 28 mm on the 15th) and the outlook suggests at least 25 mm more to end of the month, so new expected finish is around 125 mm. Only two guesses were higher than that, one of which needs an outcome of 320 mm to win the month. A real contender for the rare double win is Robbie Garrett at 6.4 and 122 mm.

Watch for the March thread to open by tomorrow morning, as I will work on it this evening my time. 

Edited February 18, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.8C +1.5C above normal. Rainfall at 116.5mm 193.8% of the monthly average.

[The PIT]

11 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Already the wettest February since 2014, which is no surprise and there have been only 4 wetter Februarys since and including 2000.

 

6th wettest for our records and can only go up in the rankings although the wettest ever I think is fairly safe.

[Snowyowl9]

January 2014 was the wettest I would imagine,and february looks one of the wettest also I`ve measured having a quick glance.

 

Edited February 18, 2020 by Snowyowl9

[feb1991blizzard]

still 6.5 - looking very good for us @Don

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 18th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

6 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

still 6.5 - looking very good for us @Don

Indeed.  Rather we were 4C too high but there you are!

[The PIT]

Still on 5.8C +1.5C above normal. Rainfall 121.4mm 202% of the monthly average. Some wet days to come so could end up our 2nd wettest Feb on record.

[cheeky_monkey]

Here is sunny Edmonton we are at -10.3c which is 2.7c below normal..forgot to put in January which ended up 4.9c below normal..we are now looking at 13 months in a row of below normal temps for my location.

[Weather-history]

Wettest Februaries for England and Wales on record (mm)

158.6 1833 
152.7 1923
143.6 1950
143.2 1990
143.2 1977
142.1 1937
136.7 2014
132.0 1916
131.7 1900
130.0 1848
129.6 1966
129.1 1768 
124.2 1925
123.5 1915
116.0 1958
115.3 1812
115.3 1767
115.1 2002
114.9 1995
114.1 1951
114.0 1823
113.5 1776
112.1 1904
111.6 2007
109.9 1881 
107.7 1883
107.4 1866
105.8 1974
105.4 1879
105.3 2001
104.9 1826
103.7 1813
103.5 1893 
103.4 1910
102.6 1774
102.5 1935
~102  2020 (up to 18th)

 

Edited February 20, 2020 by Weather-history

[kev238]

Nottingham ( Watnall) by the end of the 18th had had a staggering 101mm of rainfall against an end of month average in Feb of 47mm

That means the rainfall % if it stayed dry is already over 200% for the whole month (and we all know stay dry it isn’t !)

There must be a good chance of a top 5 wettest Feb across the country

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 19th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 5.8C +1.5C above normal. Rainfall 124.9mm 207.8% of the monthly total.

The month the 5th wettest on record for us.

[Roger J Smith]

I could pretty much score the EWP today although there is some uncertainty about which forecasts will be first and second with the current estimate around 130 mm at end of month ... these are the only forecasts we had over 100 mm (and under 500 mm) ...

135 mm ProlongedSnowLover

122 mm Robbie Garrett

120 mm Godber1^,Dr(S)No^^^

112.8 mm Kirkcaldy Weather

101 mm MrTOAD

100 mm Igloo, Mulzy

_____________________________________

^ day(s) late

The scoring order will be somewhat different due to those late penalties, in particular the three day late assessment will probably drop Dr(S)No down to a similar score to the 100 mm forecasts. 

Will post the updated annual scoring table for top twenty or so in a few days. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On 18/02/2020 at 17:37, Roger J Smith said:

So the EWP has rapidly increased to 97 mm by 16th (adding a record 28 mm on the 15th) and the outlook suggests at least 25 mm more to end of the month, so new expected finish is around 125 mm. Only two guesses were higher than that, one of which needs an outcome of 320 mm to win the month. A real contender for the rare double win is Robbie Garrett at 6.4 and 122 mm.

Watch for the March thread to open by tomorrow morning, as I will work on it this evening my time. 

Change coming...cold March and v cold April relatively speaking coming

 

BFTP

[qwertyK]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Change coming...cold March and v cold April relatively speaking coming

 

BFTP

I've heard the complete opposite and that spring in Europe will be warmer than average. Though I have checked my forecast for where I am in the southeast and it does seem to be getting colder and some snow is forecast  for the first time this year .

[Weather-history]

Wettest Februaries for England and Wales on record (mm)

158.6 1833 
152.7 1923
143.6 1950
143.2 1990
143.2 1977
142.1 1937
136.7 2014
132.0 1916
131.7 1900
130.0 1848
129.6 1966
129.1 1768 
124.2 1925
123.5 1915
116.0 1958
115.3 1812
115.3 1767
115.1 2002
114.9 1995
114.1 1951
114.0 1823
113.5 1776
112.1 1904
111.6 2007
109.9 1881 
107.7 1883
107.4 1866
~106 2020

[Sunny76]

On 19/02/2020 at 20:01, cheeky_monkey said:

Here is sunny Edmonton we are at -10.3c which is 2.7c below normal..forgot to put in January which ended up 4.9c below normal..we are now looking at 13 months in a row of below normal temps for my location.

A warming trend is not happening everywhere then. This needs to taken into account.

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 20th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[DAVID SNOW]

Likely finish after corrections 6.3.

[DAVID SNOW]

December 5.8.

January 6.4.

February 6.3(?)

would this winter get into the top 20 mildest?

Mr Data?

[Relativistic]

35 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

December 5.8.

January 6.4.

February 6.3(?)

would this winter get into the top 20 mildest?

Mr Data?

Would rank 10th.

CET: 6.17C.

Sandwiched between 1795/96 (6.20C) and 1934/35 (6.13C).

Winter 1795/96 is an interesting one because 1794/95 ranks fifth-coldest and contained the coldest month on the record. Some swing from one year to the next.

Edited February 21, 2020 by Relativistic

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

A warming trend is not happening everywhere then. This needs to taken into account.

It is taken into account....the problem is people take stats like this as proof that the planet isn't warming. Even in a warming climate, some areas will be cold - that's just how our planet works.

As Simon Lee stated, most of the pronounced warming is occurring in places like the Arctic - away from major population centres, so is perhaps missed to a degree. If it ain't in my back yard it ain't true sort of thing.