February 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Thundery wintry showers]

Sorry late entry,

CET 6.8C, EWP 58.7mm.

[feb1991blizzard]

On 01/02/2020 at 14:27, prolongedSnowLover said:

The sun’s coming down strong already in the lounge where the rugby is on. Never seen a six nations rugby game cancelled because of snow   

Mind you i think perhaps i may have  gone a bit high now - latest EPS mean now suggesting a short period of 5c max's in about 9 days time, CET will still be well above average even if it comes off but not as extreme.

EDIT : although with NW's long range forecaster going even higher, perhaps not!

Edited February 3, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[Summer Sun]

No update from Hadley to the 1st

[Roger J Smith]

Probably running 7.5 to 8.0 after two days. 

[Summer Sun]

8.58c to the 2nd

4.32c above average

 

Still awaiting the main Hadley site to return with normal updates

Edited February 3, 2020 by Summer Sun

[feb1991blizzard]

Am i allowed to change my EWP right up until 12 o'clock tonight - want to do so but as long as my CET order of entry still stands - dont want to change that?

[Summer Sun]

46 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Am i allowed to change my EWP right up until 12 o'clock tonight - want to do so but as long as my CET order of entry still stands - dont want to change that?

I think if you changed it now you'd get a time penalty though I'm sure @Roger J Smith can confirm.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

I think if you changed it now you'd get a time penalty though I'm sure @Roger J Smith can confirm.

Yes - don't mind the time penalty for the EWP as long as my CET is still OK -dont want to change that, although i might be a little high with it, i did that in December and ended up 1.2 out where as i would have only been 0.2 out if i had stuck with it.

[Summer Sun]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - don't mind the time penalty for the EWP as long as my CET is still OK -dont want to change that, although i might be a little high with it, i did that in December and ended up 1.2 out where as i would have only been 0.2 out if i had stuck with it.

Maybe post your revised CET and your original one before the cut off point then Roger can confirm either way when he's next on.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Maybe post your revised CET and your original one before the cut off point then Roger can confirm either way when he's next on.

No just EWP, i will wait and see what he says first anyway - thanks.

[DR(S)NO]

Aghh. Only managed to forget again!!!

if it’s not too late Roger can I have 6.0c and 120mm

thank you

[feb1991blizzard]

Not going to change now after all, just seen the EC46 and it looks dryer towards the End of the month, most of the next 2 weeks should just be showers so although localised heavy downfalls, i still think i can do well with my below average PPN.

[Roger J Smith]

Sorry for late response, was out for the day here. Sure you could always submit a revised CET or EWP before end of the 3rd, subject to the applicable late penalty in each contest (if you change only one of the two, the late penalty applies only to the one you change). I took note of the Dr(S)No forecasts and will get them into the table of entries.

So I take it you're happy now with the original EWP forecast (Feb91)? 

It's three mins to midnight I guess so moot point. 

[feb1991blizzard]

6 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Sorry for late response, was out for the day here. Sure you could always submit a revised CET or EWP before end of the 3rd, subject to the applicable late penalty in each contest (if you change only one of the two, the late penalty applies only to the one you change). I took note of the Dr(S)No forecasts and will get them into the table of entries.

So I take it you're happy now with the original EWP forecast (Feb91)? 

It's three mins to midnight I guess so moot point. 

Yes, decided against changing in the end, just have to hope all these storms dont go past 50mm by the 15th, in with a chance if so as i think end month will be dryer.

Thanks.

Edited February 4, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[Summer Sun]

8.24c to the 3rd

3.91c above average

______________________

Normal updates will resume once Hadley returns in full

[Summer Sun]

7.73c to the 4th

3.44c above average

______________________

Normal updates will resume once Hadley returns in full

[Summer Sun]

7.73c to the 5th

3.44c above average

______________________

Normal updates will resume once Hadley returns in full

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.7C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall 17.6mm 29.3% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

7.73c to the 6th

3.44c above average

______________________

Normal updates will resume once Hadley returns in full

[DAVID SNOW]

Its got itself stuck, 7.73 is clearly wrong.

[mb018538]

17 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Its got itself stuck, 7.73 is clearly wrong.

Looks that way....also looks that although I've gone mild for my CET prediction again this month, it might not be mild enough going by the latest output!!

[Timmytour]

Was thinking this morning that February has been colder than January in my mind so was wondering where a figure of +7C came from!

That said, there seems to be every possibility of the month ending up at 6C or more given what some models are showing. Am I right in thinking if it did, we'd have had three winter months on or above 6C for the first time since 1685?

[qwertyK]

Just now, Timmytour said:

Was thinking this morning that February has been colder than January in my mind so was wondering where a figure of +7C came from!

That said, there seems to be every possibility of the month ending up at 6C or more given what some models are showing. Am I right in thinking if it did, we'd have had three winter months on or above 6C for the first time since 1685?

By this time in January we had not had any frosts, we had three frosts in my area in Essex in January and we've already had two here. 

What models are you looking at? It's supposed to be colder next week especially in the area where CET is taken. I can't say for three winter months having 6C or above, but I do recall that in 2008 February and January both had 6C+ figures, with January having a 6.6CET, can't remember December 2007 but probably something similar.

[summer blizzard]

1 minute ago, qwertyK said:

By this time in January we had not had any frosts, we had three frosts in my area in Essex in January and we've already had two here. 

What models are you looking at? It's supposed to be colder next week especially in the area where CET is taken. I can't say for three winter months having 6C or above, but I do recall that in 2008 February and January both had 6C+ figures, with January having a 6.6CET, can't remember December 2007 but probably something similar.

Dec 07 was only 4.9C, it had high pressure spell for about two weeks that averaged about 2C. Feb 08 was only 5.4C, again largely due to cooler minima caused by a high pressure spell. The winter was pretty poor but only mid Jan-Mid-Feb was really a horror show (early Jan actually produced some cool zonality). I rate the winter of 07 as far worse.

Our only real solar match for a top 20 spotless year remains the winter of 1877 which had 6.0, 5.5, 6.2.  

 

[qwertyK]

Just now, summer blizzard said:

Dec 07 was only 4.9C, it had high pressure spell for about two weeks that averaged about 2C. Feb 08 was only 5.4C, again largely due to cooler minima caused by a high pressure spell. The winter was pretty poor but only mid Jan-Mid-Feb was really a horror show (early Jan actually produced some cool zonality). I rate the winter of 07 as far worse.

Our only real solar match for a top 20 spotless year remains the winter of 1877 which had 6.0, 5.5, 6.2.  

 

How accurate are the GFS models? It was at one stage predicting 17C-19C on the 20th/21st, and now it is the complete opposite, cold and snowy in some places. 

I reckon we could  end below 6C or just at it, we're at 6.28C right now, that will increase or stay around the same this weekend, before falling again next week.