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Novel Coronavirus – China


Snipper

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
25 minutes ago, Paul said:

Some perspective needed for those talking about inevitably getting the virus, as, particularly with taking basic precautions (washing hands etc) the risk can be limited anyway. Looking at the numbers, they're still relatively low. Northern Italy has a population of something like 27,000,000. Of that, 1694 people have been reported as having the virus. That's 0.006% of the population in what is the worst affected part of Europe right now. 

This isn't me brushing off the potential impacts of coronavirus, or suggesting it won't spread further in a potentially short space of time, but at this point in time it's really nowhere near inevitable that most people will end up with it in my opinion. 

 

Importantly Paul, it is a novel virus. So? Assuming the reported basic reproduction number of around 4 is near the mark and that there is definitely* no acquired immunity within the population because it is novel, then infection of 50% of a population is a perfectly viable figure if no containment measures are in place.  Once 50% is reached, it will start to face an ever increasing uphill battle to spread as suitable hosts become thinner on the ground.  The important figure is basic reproduction number.  Something incredibly infectious, like measles, will still spread through a population even when over 80% are immune, hence why there is a need to have 95% MMR vaccine coverage for it to prevent epidemics. Values for COVID-19 seem to be between 1-4, the lower the better, and will hopefully fall further if it is something that is seasonal, i.e is spread more readily during winter.  

*The assumption is there is no acquired immunity, it is possible that other corona viruses could have left populations with some immunity.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Oh  i agree we are many miles away from being in that situation.  but it could happen.  My main concern isnt really about he virus in its current state   its what it could possibly morph into.  I believe Spanish Flu  started off very similar to this virus  then it changed into a much more deadly strain.  Hopefully that will not happen  

The nature of Influenza's RNA means it can undergo dramatic changes in it's pathology as it is capable of swapping segments between different strains. I'm not sure if this is what happened with Spanish Flu and the 2nd deadly pandemic, but it is the reason why new flu strains emerge each year.

Covid-19, unlike influenza, is a single stranded RNA virus so it would hopefully not undergo such dramatic shifts in it's nature. It will evolve however -genetic drift.  The downside of that is there will be antigenic drift, meaning someone who has had Covid-19 will eventually become susceptible to re-infection.  The upside is that it will most likely evolve into something more benign, as high morbidity/fatality is not remotely helpful in a virus spreading.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Public Health England via the PA: Widespread transmission of coronavirus in the UK is "highly likely"

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
2 hours ago, Snipper said:

BBC 1 tonight at 7.30pm special on Coronavirus 

Personally, I'm wondering how long it's going to take before they storyline it into the soaps

They'd probably get more accurate info across to more of the older generation that way too.  If the majority are anything like my mother they're more likely to believe what's shown on them than the dodgy stuff floating around on facebook/stalkermedia.

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
11 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Personally, I'm wondering how long it's going to take before they storyline it into the soaps

They'd probably get more accurate info across to more of the older generation that way too.  If the majority are anything like my mother they're more likely to believe what's shown on them than the dodgy stuff floating around on facebook/stalkermedia.

Although I’m well and truly in the category “older generation” I believe continued good drip feeding of information is the way to go. Getting the information across to all generations is also very important as so many seemed engrossed in their own little worlds. Possibly something in East Enders and the like would help. Perhaps someone can stab someone who has the virus and get infected. Can’t imagine the plot line would allow a couple weeks or so for it to become apparent. 

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Posted
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
23 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Personally, I'm wondering how long it's going to take before they storyline it into the soaps

They'd probably get more accurate info across to more of the older generation that way too.  If the majority are anything like my mother they're more likely to believe what's shown on them than the dodgy stuff floating around on facebook/stalkermedia.

That's a rather sweeping statement. From what I read on here, I see no evidence that older persons are more likely to believe misinformation than younger ones, perhaps the reverse.

Edited by ciel
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Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex

Anyone found very recent numbers for Defence Medical Services. 

opengraph-image-a1f7d89ffd0782738b1aeb0d
WWW.GOV.UK

Defence Medical Services (DMS) is made up of the Navy Medical Service, Army Medical Service, the Royal Air Force Medical Service and the Joint Medical Group (JMG).

 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

 

0F5A7064-7A57-4D16-8A26-AC21531D3EF1_w12
WWW.RFERL.ORG

Officials in the United States have said that thousands of Russia-linked social media accounts have launched a coordinated effort to spread alarm and misinformation about the COVID-19 crisis.

 

The modus operandi of Vladislav Surkov.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
9 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Although I’m well and truly in the category “older generation” I believe continued good drip feeding of information is the way to go. Getting the information across to all generations is also very important as so many seemed engrossed in their own little worlds. Possibly something in East Enders and the like would help. Perhaps someone can stab someone who has the virus and get infected. Can’t imagine the plot line would allow a couple weeks or so for it to become apparent. 

May be someone who's recently been abroad could start having symptoms, like Phil Mitchell, and then someone from the community who has interacted with him, that'll be how it is, although perhaps a few of the cast from different situations. 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
25 minutes ago, ciel said:

That's a rather sweeping statement. From what I read on here, I see no evidence that older persons are more likely to believe misinformation than younger ones, perhaps the reverse, in fact.

You'd be surprised at how gullible some of the older generation are where stalkermedia is concerned.  I got shot down the other day by my mother and 3 of her friends for saying that a blatantly sfx'd/photoshoped video of a girl taking off like a helicopter from having her hair blow around during a storm was fake, another example is the shopped vid of an orca coming out of the water and 'eating' a person walking along a beach, and another of the moon 'turning green' a couple years back.

And the reason why I get shot down is because their friends wouldn't post the video if it wasn't true....

This is why fake news/info is so prevalent, and why I think that the Gov' should start essentially 'shoehorning' factual information about this virus into things like soaps (whilst they have the chance) as they tend to spend more time discussing what's going on in EastEnders/Emmerdale etc (both in person and on stalkermedia) than anything else and would help the spread of accurate information.  Even if it's just the basic hygiene stuff about washing hands/cleaning etc.

Edited by Ryukai
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Posted
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
5 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

You'd be surprised at how gullible some of the older generation are where stalkermedia is concerned.  I got shot down the other day by my mother and 3 of her friends for saying that a blatantly sfx'd/photoshoped video of a girl taking off like a helicopter from having her hair blow around during a storm, another example is the shopped vid of an orca coming out of the water and 'eating' a person walking along a beach, and another of the moon 'turning green' a couple years back.

And the reason why I get shot down is because their friends wouldn't post the video if it wasn't true....

This is why fake news/info is so prevalent, and why I think that the Gov' should start essentially 'shoehorning' factual information into things like soaps (whilst they have the chance) as they tend to spend more time discussing what's going on in EastEnders/Emmerdale etc than anything else and would help the spread of accurate information.  Even if it's just the basic hygiene stuff about washing hands/cleaning etc.

Yes, social media is a hot-bed of fake news. But my experience is that the majority of older people are more wised up than to believe any old nonsense.

However, I would find it very concerning if a government set a precedent in directing the content of storylines in soaps.(not that I watch them, anyway)

I'm fairly sure that there will be multiple official information campaigns put out there regarding 'basic hygeine' etc. available to all.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Officials have confirmed that the 2020 Olympics in Japan will go ahead as planned

I'd be amazed if it stays that way. Visitors arriving from every nation on Earth, intermingling in large numbers, then returning home after a couple of weeks seems like a really good way to cause an epidemiological explosion.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Officials have confirmed that the 2020 Olympics in Japan will go ahead as planned

Hopefully things will be under control by then . It’s still over 4 months away.

I absolutely love both the Summer and Winter Olympics . 

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
3 minutes ago, ciel said:

Yes, social media is a hot-bed of fake news. But my experience is that the majority of older people are more wised up than to believe any old nonsense.

However, I would find it very concerning if a government set a precedent in directing the content of storylines in soaps.(not that I watch them, anyway)

I'm fairly sure that there will be multiple official information campaigns put out there regarding 'basic hygeine' etc. available to all.

An official information campaign must surely be in the pipeline? Better to act now, rather than play catch up in two weeks time.  It is the lead in every UK news outlet so a campaign will reassure rather than alarm.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The real test for China is coming up as a lot of people are now going back to work.

The next few weeks there will be crucial .

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Was reading an interesting article about the situation in the USA.

The problem there is the lack of statutory sick pay, also nearly 11 million people have no health insurance .

There will be much more pressure there to go to work even if you’re sick.  

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
9 minutes ago, swebby said:

An official information campaign must surely be in the pipeline? Better to act now, rather than play catch up in two weeks time.  It is the lead in every UK news outlet so a campaign will reassure rather than alarm.

Must admit you have to be pretty dense and or disinterested not to see what the BBC and other channels plus papers are dishing out. Some of the rags getting, as usual, over the top. 

I’ve had a text message from NHS. 
 

Notices up at GP’s and on their home page of their website.
 

Suspect a lot of people will not bother until they they are stopped from doing something or their family or circle of friends catch it. 
 

BBC special on 1 at 7.30 tonight. 

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