Novel Coronavirus – China

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Add on that most have mild symptoms the true number of infections is probably much higher which again reduces the fatality rate.

WHO's latest report from China seems to suggest this is not the case. They said there are few cases of asymptomatic versions, most do become ill a few days after a positive test even if they were showing no signs of symptoms before and they have no reason to suspect the figure is much higher than the one being suggested by the officials at the moment.

Also, worth noting that the current fatlity rate for the CLOSED cases is 7% have died, 93% recovered, so the current outcome from China from WHOs report from there may even be an underestimate still based on that information.

[Summer Sun]

 

 

[alexisj9]

34 minutes ago, The PIT said:

It's a very small amount and nothing to panic about and you shouldn't be trying to panic people. If one my relatives get it it would be just bad luck. The chances of getting it are very remote. 646000 people die of flu a year are you panicking over that. No.

Most people at risk from the flu, get a jab to boost immunity, doesn't always work when a new strain develops half way through the season though, point is, no one is immune or has any type of protection from this virus. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Out of all this, I think it's time we looked at movement to and from countries who won't adhere to certain standards of hygiene. How many more modern day plagues do we need to see coming from China before something is said?

I think for a lot of people, the severity of this won't hit home until people they know start succumbing to the virus; when they have 2 or 3 funerals to attend at any one time.

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Most people at risk from the flu, get a jab to boost immunity, doesn't always work when a new strain develops half way through the season though, point is, no one is immune or has any type of protection from this virus. 

Yes that’s the biggest issue . Over time people gain some immunity from flu strains .

 

[Captain Shortwave]

The virus is still quite an unknown in terms of figuring out how to deal with it. It also seems to have a high level of variance in how badly it affect people (the flu normally hits most hard even with a low mortality rate), this seems to vary from nothing more than a mild cold to killing you.

Given the above, taking a very cautious approach is the best course of action. There are a lot of unknowns in terms of how this outbreak will develop so containing and fading out these mainly localised outbreaks is surely better than letting nature takes its course.

Just worth mentioning that some of the other potential deadly outbreaks were prevented due to the hard worth of national and international healthcare workers. In the end given how mass illness can cripple economies, governments will pull out their wallets to try to stop incidents like this from getting out of hand.

Edited March 1, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[emax]

15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Out of all this, I think it's time we looked at movement to and from countries who won't adhere to certain standards of hygiene. How many more modern day plagues do we need to see coming from China before something is said?

I think for a lot of people, the severity of this won't hit home until people they know start succumbing to the virus; when they have 2 or 3 funerals to attend at any one time.

So you'd stop all travel to China?

As for 2 or 3 funerals at any one time, now thats certainly alarmist lol

[Snipper]

Flu reports 27th February

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/868935/Weekly_national_influenza_report_week_9_2020.pdf

[emax]

29 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I think his job is reassurence for now, so people do not panic about sounds like it from how he spoke anyway, however I do hope this doesn't mean they are putting the economy above people's lives. 

I'd say they're duty bound to think about the economy, especially as the death rate is still relatively low. Obviously its difficult to know where the line is drawn before acting further, and things are changing day by day, but no responsible government would ever say stuff the economy......not when worldwide cases are still at this stage anyway. 

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, emax said:

So you'd stop all travel to China?

As for 2 or 3 funerals at any one time, now thats certainly alarmist lol

What I'd call 'alarmist' is the following: There's a novel virus (against which we humans have zero herd-immunity) spreading around the globe like wildfire; a virus that so-far has killed more than 4% of those who've contracted it...

But it's true, isn't it?

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, emax said:

So you'd stop all travel to China?

As for 2 or 3 funerals at any one time, now thats certainly alarmist lol

There is enough wealth in China now to eradicate the issues they have with regards to such practices. With a greater world standing and wealth comes social responsibilities...do you not agree? 

[Summer Sun]

 

[emax]

15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There is enough wealth in China now to eradicate the issues they have with regards to such practices. With a greater world standing and wealth comes social responsibilities...do you not agree? 

But I thought the regular group who are in this thread insisted that no country is to blame? I'm just surprised by their reactions thats all. According to some in here, our practices are just as bad lol!

You couldnt stop travel to and from China, but some sort of world sanctions might help stop the scummy practices they employ over there. Thing is, it isnt just China that do such things, but they have such a high population density, it makes it much worse!

[Bristawl Si]

47 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Out of all this, I think it's time we looked at movement to and from countries who won't adhere to certain standards of hygiene. How many more modern day plagues do we need to see coming from China before something is said?

I think for a lot of people, the severity of this won't hit home until people they know start succumbing to the virus; when they have 2 or 3 funerals to attend at any one time.

Almost impossible to 'police'. Say, we banned all flights to and from N Italy, people living there or holidaymakers could just pop across to a neighbouring country and board a flight. You mention China; do you go around all the unis and colleges in the UK, round up the Chinese and send them back home?

If one wants to 'participate' in everything global, unfortunately this CV strain and its spread worldwide is just an unfortunate by-product of globalisation. 

[Guest Delete Me]

Problem is those in power and with the wealth are also participating in the barbaric, strange and downright awful practices with animals.

I'm not being racist nor am I in the slightest bashing China but in the early days of the virus some of the videos and content coming out of Wuhan were really bad, from a total lack of basic hygiene to eating anything that looks tasty or moved. Its completely messed up, markets are still trading in exotic and wild animals, this is still going on regardless of the attempts by the government to eradicate - are they even trying to eradicate what is normal to them, no its just a front once again by CCP.

[Bristawl Si]

Update from Sky News on the new UK cases:

Twelve new cases of coronavirus have been confirmed in England - and some of them are part of a "family cluster".

It is the biggest jump in COVID-19 cases the UK has seen in one day.

Three of the new patients caught coronavirus in the UK from a man in Surrey who tested positive on Friday.

They are members of his family and are all adults. 

One is also from Surrey and two are from West Sussex. None of them are health workers.

Edited March 1, 2020 by Bristle boy

[emax]

25 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

What I'd call 'alarmist' is the following: There's a novel virus (against which we humans have zero herd-immunity) spreading around the globe like wildfire; a virus that so-far has killed more than 4% of those who've contracted it...

But it's true, isn't it?

No its not true lol, I think you mean more than 3% lol

Still wouldnt call your statement alarmist at all, but it is down to perspective and peoples attitude to life.

[Blessed Weather]

In an article titled How deadly is coronavirus and can it be stopped? in today's Telegraph, their Health Editor wrote:

"It remains unclear how deadly the new strain of coronavirus (Covid-19) is, or if it can be stopped from spreading around the world as a pandemic. We do know it is nothing like as dangerous as diseases such as Ebola, which kills up to two thirds of those who catch it, but doctors remain unsure of its medical severity.

How dangerous is coronavirus? This remains the million dollar question. In Wuhan - the epicentre of the Covid-19 outbreak - the current death rate is between 2 and 4 per cent but is around 0.7 per cent outside the city, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

If it falls as low as the 0.026 per cent death rate for swine flu in 2009, it should be manageable even if it spreads throughout Britain. The “reasonable worst case scenario” the British government plans for with respiratory disease outbreaks is a death rate of 2.5 per cent - the same as for the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918 and the worst in modern history."

The 1918 Spanish Flu outbreak killed 50 million people worldwide.

The Telegraph also published further analysis of the cases and fatalities by age in China. This suggests people aged from 20 to 39 will incur the same number (percentage rates) of deaths as caused by normal seasonal flu. This percentage ramps up after 50 years of age.

Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/how-deadly-coronavirus-covid-19/

[Summer Sun]

First case in Scotland confirmed. The patient returned from Italy.

 

[kold weather]

11 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

 

The Telegraph also published further analysis of the cases and fatalities by age in China. This suggests people aged from 20 to 39 will incur the same number (percentage rates) of deaths as caused by normal seasonal flu. This percentage ramps up after 50 years of age.

Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/how-deadly-coronavirus-covid-19/

I've read the latest report from WHO, the risk of death without any previous health risks based from 55,000 cases from China is about 1.4%, it obviously rises with other health factors at play.

For those above the age of 80, the risk is now estimated to be 21%, which is obviously a fairly decent percentage.

Current mortality rate is estimated in China at 3.8%, though those diagnosed later have a better chance, a death rate of 0.7% as noted (though obviously those are active cases that may yet still die in the end).

Also this is in China, a country that basically shut itself down in every way and built special hospitals in days for this. I'm not sure many countries will do as good a job at containing it unless they do likewise, and that will clearly have huge knockon for the economy and social aspects of our lives.

 

[emax]

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I've read the latest report from WHO, the risk of death without any previous health risks based from 55,000 cases from China is about 1.4%, it obviously rises with other health factors at play.

For those above the age of 80, the risk is now estimated to be 21%, which is obviously a fairly decent percentage.

Current mortality rate is estimated in China at 3.8%, though those diagnosed later have a better chance, a death rate of 0.7% as noted (though obviously those are active cases that may yet still die in the end).

Also this is in China, a country that basically shut itself down in every way and built special hospitals in days for this. I'm not sure many countries will do as good a job at containing it unless they do likewise, and that will clearly have huge knockon for the economy and social aspects of our lives.

 

The quarantining and lock downs wont have any affect on the death rate, so that point is immaterial.  

As for the hospitals, last I read they werent ICU or anything, just hospitals to give basic, non life threatening care (basically just beds to keep people in). If so, then that wouldn't affect the death rate either. I might be wrong on that, as I cant remember where I read it, so if you have any info on what the new hospitals are actually doing, it would be useful.

[emax]

35 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

In an article titled How deadly is coronavirus and can it be stopped? in today's Telegraph, their Health Editor wrote:

"It remains unclear how deadly the new strain of coronavirus (Covid-19) is, or if it can be stopped from spreading around the world as a pandemic. We do know it is nothing like as dangerous as diseases such as Ebola, which kills up to two thirds of those who catch it, but doctors remain unsure of its medical severity.

How dangerous is coronavirus? This remains the million dollar question. In Wuhan - the epicentre of the Covid-19 outbreak - the current death rate is between 2 and 4 per cent but is around 0.7 per cent outside the city, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

If it falls as low as the 0.026 per cent death rate for swine flu in 2009, it should be manageable even if it spreads throughout Britain. The “reasonable worst case scenario” the British government plans for with respiratory disease outbreaks is a death rate of 2.5 per cent - the same as for the Spanish Flu outbreak of 1918 and the worst in modern history."

The 1918 Spanish Flu outbreak killed 50 million people worldwide.

The Telegraph also published further analysis of the cases and fatalities by age in China. This suggests people aged from 20 to 39 will incur the same number (percentage rates) of deaths as caused by normal seasonal flu. This percentage ramps up after 50 years of age.

Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/how-deadly-coronavirus-covid-19/

Is there an age demographic for all confirmed cases? I might of missed it somewhere in this thread, but would be interesting to see the age spread of the total cases, not just by deaths etc.

[swebby]

2 hours ago, kold weather said:

Not just that but the latest who assessment from China actually puts the fatality rate at just a little under 4% from China cases. Odds are lesser developed countries may see higher than that.

So this was a per the latest estimate on the order of 30-40 times more deadly than the flu.

Comparing them is actually spreading bad misinformation, they may be from similar backgrounds, but this one is at the moment clearly more dangerous, by order of magnitude so infact.

Pit  - it appears it's the other way round, it's more deadly than first estimated, at least on those cases thus reported.

Just catching up with stuff and saw that CFR of 4% which is is very concerning.

The report is here, with relevant info on CFR on pg12.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

 

There are thankfully some mitigating circumstances.

1 - WHO acknowledge that calculating CFR mid epidemic is difficult and may lead to biases.

2 - CFR appears to be area specific, with Wuhan at 5.8% and other areas around 0.7%.

3- CFR was at it's highest at the start of the outbreak.

WHO do not speculate on the discrepancies, but the an obvious assumption is that quality of critical health care is all important.  Wuhan was swamped and as the epicentre of cases, it would also have not been apprised of what it was actually dealing with. Take home from this is that emergent case rate must be kept below a level where local health services are not overwhelmed.  For the UK - could we be looking at closures of educational institutions and maybe public transport? Significant travel restrictions? Requests to stagger work patterns?

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, emax said:

But I thought the regular group who are in this thread insisted that no country is to blame? I'm just surprised by their reactions thats all. According to some in here, our practices are just as bad lol!

You couldnt stop travel to and from China, but some sort of world sanctions might help stop the scummy practices they employ over there. Thing is, it isnt just China that do such things, but they have such a high population density, it makes it much worse!

Personally I thought it was about the bad air that's now improved. 

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

Almost impossible to 'police'. Say, we banned all flights to and from N Italy, people living there or holidaymakers could just pop across to a neighbouring country and board a flight. You mention China; do you go around all the unis and colleges in the UK, round up the Chinese and send them back home?

If one wants to 'participate' in everything global, unfortunately this CV strain and its spread worldwide is just an unfortunate by-product of globalisation. 

Can you explain how the Spanish flu spread globally, as I'm not sure globalisation was as wide spread as it is now?