Novel Coronavirus – China

[Snipper]

On 07/02/2020 at 16:04, Snipper said:

As far as the cruise ship cases are concerned I wonder how good or otherwise the ships air conditioning is at spreading the virus about? Thinking of the spread of Legionnaires disease. I realise that is spread by a mist but the basic premise of a spread by air conditioning must be a possibility. 

How Coronavirus Raced Through Quarantined Cruise Ship

APPLE.NEWS

---

The crisis aboard the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan shows how germs can spread rapidly through air conditioning systems that can't filter out particles as small as the new...

 

[swebby]

32 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

If it turns out, say, 3 or 4 months down the line from now, that it really was like a flu outbreak, with same kind of numbers of people affected as in a Winter flu season, plus

Fatalities are amongst those who are elderly, infirm, and/or they had underlying medical issues then the wider population will just view it as another illness.

I know this reads a bit casual (understatement), but unless it turns out like a 1918 Spanish flu outbreak people will just get on with things. 

I know individual people WILL be affected, seeing loved ones suffer, but did the last severe flu outbreak in the UK REALLY see people change their behaviour around travel, going outside, going to work, socialising, catching public transport, etc? 

This CV strain has same mortality rate as influenza i've read in last day or so. I stand to be corrected if i'm wrong.

I hope you are right BB. I really do.

I think you may be correct in that it will actually end up being a case of keep calm and carry on, but at the same time, if it does transpire that the mortality rate is 1-2%, then people will look back on this as something much worse than a bad flu season. It will have long lasting impacts on the social psyche.

1% mortality based on a 50% infection rate in the UK, means that everyone will either be personally impacted or will know someone that has been. 2% would mean that we are getting close to everyone having been directly impacted. By impacted, i mean personally knows someone that dies - i.e family member, work colleague, old school friend, that person you say hello to in the pub/gym/shop every Saturday, etc. When it is that prevalent, people will ask questions, they will want answers, and they may want someone to blame or carry the can.

Edit - Just re-read this and it's a little alarmist, apologies. I will  add that my personal belief is that mortality rate will be below, possibly well below, 1% but still higher than seasonal influenza of 0.1-0.2% and more impact-full.  The reason we are not likely to know someone that dies of influenza is because the infection ratio of the population in any given year is no where near 50% i am suggesting for a novel virus

Edited February 25, 2020 by swebby

[Gael_Force]

1 hour ago, Snipper said:

Just answered my own question. Check out Pintrest. More than enough patterns. Whether the material you use would be of much use is another matter. 

I can remember, many moons ago, being made to wear a thick, woolly scarf over my face when colds and flu were about. I hated it, horrible scratchy thing made from rough wool from our own flock. Always envied my mum's soft, tightly woven silk scarf. Wonder if one of those would act in event of no masks. I don't see mention of gloves but imagine they might help but important thing is to stop touching face and remember, even with mask, don't rub your eyes.

[Bristawl Si]

12 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Healthcare providers, the elderly, at risk population, are invited to avail themselves of seasonal influenza vaccine: that protects both the people and the facilities providing medical services. We see in China, many infected doctors and nurses with sad fatalities among the young in the front line. If it gets going here, it will certainly not be like a normal 'bad flu' season. The only advantage I can see is that we are forewarned and thus better able to protect medical staff with protective gear.

Good point. I used to get free flu jab at work. Since i left work i've paid every Oct at Superdrug for jab. You mention "healthcare providers"; do you mean nurses, etc? Last i read the take-up in NHS of having flu jab was quite low as % of nhs workforce, so they dont exactly set a good example to Joe and Joanne Public.

"If it gets going here, it will certainly not be like a normal 'bad flu' season" - how do you know? Can you qualify that statement?

[Methuselah]

When I look at the mortality rates in affected countries, I can only assume (unless being a Brit, like magic, confers a extra degree of immunity?) that we in the UK are just as susceptible as the human species in general: COVID-19 is not ordinary 'flu'!

[swebby]

3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Good point. I used to get free flu jab at work. Since i left work i've paid every Oct at Superdrug for jab. You mention "healthcare providers"; do you mean nurses, etc? Last i read the take-up in NHS of having flu jab was quite low as % of nhs workforce, so they dont exactly set a good example to Joe and Joanne Public.

"If it gets going here, it will certainly not be like a normal 'bad flu' season" - how do you know? Can you qualify that statement?

This is entirely anecdotal but i recall a chat many moons ago with a junior doctor saying that hospital staff were not mad keen on the jab. Firstly i was told it could make you feel like crap for a week, secondly, their exposure to so many patients meant that the jabs efficacy for them was a lot lower than an average person on the street.  No idea how correct this is?

[DAVID SNOW]

China and Iran those two great bastions of truth.

Think I will stick with European figures.

[Bristawl Si]

Just now, swebby said:

This is entirely anecdotal but i recall a chat many moons ago with a junior doctor saying that hospital staff were not mad keen on the jab. Firstly i was told it could make you feel like crap for a week, secondly, their exposure to so many patients meant that the jabs efficacy for them was a lot lower than an average person on the street.  No idea how correct this is?

"Feel like crap for a week" is actually complete, erm, crap. The only side effect post-jab is a sore spot on arm, unless an individual is allergic to a flu jab ingredient.

Jab only becomes 'fully' effective by around day 10, post jab giving. Even then, it isnt 100% protective, and some years it hasnt been great (effectiveness) for some. I class it as extra insurance against flu, compared to someone who doesnt bother with the jab.

[swebby]

Just now, Bristle boy said:

"Feel like crap for a week" is actually complete, erm, crap. The only side effect post-jab is a sore spot on arm, unless an individual is allergic to a flu jab ingredient.

Jab only becomes 'fully' effective by around day 10, post jab giving. Even then, it isnt 100% protective, and some years it hasnt been great (effectiveness) for some. I class it as extra insurance against flu, compared to someone who doesnt bother with the jab.

Fair enough, never had the jab thus far, but getting long enough in tooth that it will be something i experience. The chat was a good while back (mid 90's i think) so the jab may be much improved now?

I will add - I personally think the flu jab is a very sensible precaution for anyone at risk, and would advise anyone thinking about it to get one.

[Gael_Force]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

"If it gets going here, it will certainly not be like a normal 'bad flu' season" - how do you know? Can you qualify that statement?

I'm basing it on the assumption that no vaccine protection will increase the numbers in hospital. Covid-19 patients who are seriously ill are in ICU for minimum of 2 to 3 weeks. The NHS does not have the capacity to cope with any large increase in ICU requirement ... all across the spectrum, hospital departments will be put under huge pressure and patient prognosis compromised. Remember the January when all elective surgeries were cancelled: took a year to get that back on track.

Adding some stats and facts from Italy...

Quote

114 patients are hospitalized with symptoms, 35 are in intensive care, while 162 are in home isolation.

Higher percentage in ICU than we have seen in Chinese numbers.

Quote

"In Italy there is an elderly population and this explains the mortality rates of 2-3%. The elderly are more fragile, we see it with the flu. From the latter we can protect them with the vaccine; since there is no vaccine for Coronavirus there is mortality. The only way to protect them is to limit outbreaks as it is being done. " This was stated by Giovanni Rezza, director of the infectious diseases department of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità in a press conference on Civil Protection. 

Reiterates the point about lack of vaccine increasing mortality in the elderly.
 

Edited February 25, 2020 by Gael_Force

[cheeky_monkey]

25 minutes ago, swebby said:

 

Edit - Just re-read this and it's a little alarmist, apologies. I will  add that my personal belief is that mortality rate will be below, possibly well below, 1% but still higher than seasonal influenza of 0.1-0.2% and more impact-full.  The reason we are not likely to know someone that dies of influenza is because the infection ratio of the population in any given year is no where near 50% i am suggesting for a novel virus

i agree i'm going to stick my neck out and say mortality rates will be probably be no more than 0.5% which would equate to the bad flu season of 1999-2000..when an extra 50k people died as result between Dec-Mar in the UK alone...dont remember there being a panic on the streets back then

[Bristawl Si]

9 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I'm basing it on the assumption that no vaccine protection will increase the numbers in hospital. Covid-19 patients who are seriously ill are in ICU for minimum of 2 to 3 weeks. The NHS does not have the capacity to cope with any large increase in ICU requirement ... all across the spectrum, hospital departments will be put under huge pressure and patient prognosis compromised. Remember the January when all elective surgeries were cancelled: took a year to get that back on track.

Maybe 2018? Winter 17/18 was quite a bad 'season' for flu, looking at records. My father died from flu+ pneumonia back end of that season (April 18).

Re any poss future cancellations i snapped up the offer of bringing my Back mri scan forward to tom afternoon, when contacted by our local hosp trust earlier today. Scheduled for 2 weeks from now, but now tomorrow - could be a shrewd move if things do escalate.

[Gael_Force]

21 minutes ago, swebby said:

This is entirely anecdotal but i recall a chat many moons ago with a junior doctor saying that hospital staff were not mad keen on the jab. Firstly i was told it could make you feel like crap for a week, secondly, their exposure to so many patients meant that the jabs efficacy for them was a lot lower than an average person on the street.  No idea how correct this is?

Maybe the 'cocktail' in use makes a difference .... some years I've had very mild symptoms* after vaccine other years nothing apart from the 'heavy' arm sensation just post jab.

* It is not live vaccine but is acknowledged that some people can experience mild flu-like discomforts for a few days. 

[Ryukai]

I have a strange feeling that the Italy cases have their origin in Iran. 

I was looking at population stats and 60% of the Muslim community there live in Northern Italy (mighty strong coincidence???), So there's probably a good chance that it was brought into Italy via people returning from visiting extended family/pilgrimage's  

Iran's health minister was also showing symptoms (sweating/coughing) at a press conference a few days ago, which means he himself could have been exposed to it at most 2 weeks ago, and whoever he got it from would be again at most 2 weeks, so it'll have been in their country for at least a month, that's a lot of time for it to spread through extremely crowded (to the point where you can't even see the floor) cities/streets/holy-sites/homes, and a lot of time for those who unwittingly have it to visit family all round the globe  

Edited February 25, 2020 by Ryukai

[Bristawl Si]

Re flu death stats, and i'm as 'guilty' as any, on here. Deaths directly attributed to influenza, i.e. flu is the actual cause of death, can sometimes appear small in number or translated into mortality rate %. But,.........

Official stats can show number of deaths where flu is a factor but not the overriding one. Flu can be the virus that induces the main cause of death; most common being pneumonia. So, you will often see stats referring to "flu-induced deaths".

[Dreckly]

2 hours ago, Snipper said:

What is the latest info on the the benefits of face masks?

It would seem they have doubtful benefits.  The chap on BBC news this morning said if nothing else it reminds you not to touch your face with potentially infectious hands.

What is a mask’s life expectancy (obviously depending on type).  Can they be sterilised for extended use bearing in mind they are going to be in very short supply now? Fortunately I have already got some for use in my  building works.

Any one got a nice sewing pattern to knock some up?

You would need a particulate filter mask as surgical mask fibres are to open and will allow microbes through more easily.

3M™ Particulate Respirator 8835+ | 3M United Kingdom

WWW.3M.CO.UK

 

[Summer Sun]

 Carmel College in Darlington have sent students home today who returned from a skiing trip in Italy to self-quarantine for two weeks.

[DAVID SNOW]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 Carmel College in Darlington have sent students home today who returned from a skiing trip in Italy to self-quarantine for two weeks.

This is getting daft now!  If not then all their parents/siblings/friends/teachers, etc etc must 'self quarantine' too,

This virus isn't the problem, social media and its associated hysteria is.

[Spikecollie]

19 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

This is getting daft now!  If not then all their parents/siblings/friends/teachers, etc etc must 'self quarantine' too,

This virus isn't the problem, social media and its associated hysteria is.

I was just about to say the same thing. Also, how can they be absolutely sure that 14 days will do the job? Will kids really stay indoors if their parents are out working? There is a real danger of mass hysteria leading to uncontrolled behaviours, social unrest and more danger than the virus itself presents.

Yes, it's worrying but Gray Wolf was right earlier today. We're all going to do damage to our immune systems from stress and anxiety about this. I'm just going to keep running, walking and playing with my dog to keep healthy, in between work and if things do evolve to a stage where there is something to really worry about, I've already decided that we'll just hide away.

The government speculation about shutting down parts of the transport system is the most scary for me. My OH is due back from the UK at the end of March but with members of his family ill, I may have the need to travel at any time. It constitutes a crazy response or suggestion.

What did touch a bit today was thinking about how vulnerable and often alone, some of the people I work with are. One old man who lives alone, tubed to his oxygen tanks, is following the story very closely and had misread a newspaper article. He thought that the virus had arrived in this area but when we went through the article together I was able to reassure him that the article was about emergency preparations. Some of this is just not fair on people...

Edited February 25, 2020 by Spikecollie

[Gray-Wolf]

There is something very 'Awks' about all the happy 'avatars' on here bringing news of death and desolation.....

"Ooooh look! a nice happy avatar......more deaths then...."

Can't you put a black cloth on the head of your avatar if you're gonna do such purlease!!!!

[emax]

34 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

There is something very 'Awks' about all the happy 'avatars' on here bringing news of death and desolation.....

"Ooooh look! a nice happy avatar......more deaths then...."

Can't you put a black cloth on the head of your avatar if you're gonna do such purlease!!!!

Thats a joke isnt it? You're not actually being serious now?

[Derecho]

Read an interesting fact today that suggested those who inherited the Coronavirus before January 10th had a mortality rate of 15% while those after this date had a mortality rate of 1%. So clearly spotting the Coronavirus earlier obviously makes a big difference. I also read that the mortality rate is much higher amongst men then in women... but the majority of cases have been in China where 50% of men smoke and only 3% of women smoke. I think that the coronavirus will be similar to swine flu and will hopefully lose its potency quickly like swine flu did.

The other impact to also consider is economic, China is obviously now a huge economic player in comparison to the SARS outbreak in the early 2000s, what will be the impacts on the global economy if this runs into serious trouble? Case in point, the Dow Jones Index has dropped by a whopping 1900 points in the last 2 days. Carry on like that and we will have an economic crash, not too concerned yet though....

[nick sussex]

I expect the panic buying to break out soon .

As the media go into overdrive and make the situation worse. Unless we’re all going to remain housebound till summer and just order everything online then there’s not much we can do but just take sensible precautions .

 

[Astral Goat Juice]

6 hours ago, fujita5 said:

I'm Ok as I'm in a senior position within my company (department manager) and I can work from home.  Sadly, many of the staff in the call centre are on minimum wage with quite poor contracts and won't be entitled to full pay.  Therefore unless they fall very ill they won't stay off work...

But they are entitled to full pay. Its statutory,the Government has advised you to self isolate for 14 days.

Those on zero hour contracts, you'll all be getting new ones come April anyways, so you will be entitled to a lot more. 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

But they are entitled to full pay. Its statutory,the Government has advised you to self isolate for 14 days.

Those on zero hour contracts, you'll all be getting new ones come April anyways, so you will be entitled to a lot more. 

It’s a bit unclear though . What legal certainty do people have they’ll be paid . Wouldn’t the government need to rush through some legislation . Because advise isn’t really sufficient I wouldn’t have thought .