Novel Coronavirus – China

[Gray-Wolf]

South Korea's numbers seem to be on the ascent?

31 on tues jump to 51 yesterday then 82 today then the 'John Hopkins' institute updated that update to 104

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

GISANDDATA.MAPS.ARCGIS.COM

---

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

The Chinese are now saying that 'fecal transmission' is a pathway of infection.

Of so then the 'seasonality' of colds/flu will not apply to the virus?

My time in Germany (in the mid 80's) brought to my awareness the 'pleasant' name we Brits earned on the continent " Sweaty 'A' holes ".....it was before most folk used wet wipes and none of us used bidets so they may have had a point!

Anyone who has encountered norovirus will know how tricky it is to eliminate 'fecal contamination'..... 

[Katrine Basso]

Here is the latest information on the BBC regarding the novel coronavirus:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51048366

 

[Snowyowl9]

10 Very Important Questions That The Mainstream Media Should Be Asking About This Coronavirus Outbreak.

1 The Washington State Department of Health has announced that 746 people are currently being "monitored" for coronavirus symptoms.  Are all 746 being quarantined, or are they being allowed to mix with the general public?  According to the agency's official website, it is unclear what "monitoring their health" actually entails...

2 In Hawaii, a local resident named John Fukiwara recently had very close contact with a Japanese man that later was confirmed to be infected by the coronavirus.  After contacting health officials, why was Fukiwara told to "go about his normal day-to-day routine"?...

3 If this coronavirus outbreak "isn't that serious", then why has everyone in Hubei province now been ordered to stay at home until further notice?

4 If this coronavirus outbreak "isn't that serious", then why did Russia just ban all Chinese citizens from entering the country?...

5 Chinese officials have just released data which show that this virus "could be 20 times more lethal than the flu".  Why does hardly anyone in the western world know about this?...

6 Why is this virus killing 15 percent of all victims that are over the age of 80?...

7 On the flip side, why are so few children being infected by this virus?...

8 What is this coronavirus outbreak going to mean for the entire global economy?

9 Why did the coronavirus continue to spread like wildfire aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship even after a quarantine was initiated?...

10 The number of confirmed cases outside of China has doubled in less than a week.  If the number of cases continues to double every week, how bad will this crisis eventually become?

I'll answer that one.

If the number of confirmed cases outside of China doubles every week, there will be a million cases just 10 weeks from now.

And once there are a million people with coronavirus walking around all over the planet, nobody is going to be able to "contain" it.

So let us hope that the measures that authorities are currently taking to control the spread of this disease will work.

President Trump believes that this outbreak will start to fizzle when warmer weather arrives, and I truly hope that he is correct.

Because right now this outbreak is getting worse with each passing day, and we definitely aren't getting good information about this crisis from the mainstream media.

Ands thats your homework for tonight kiddies.

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/10-very-important-questions-that-the-mainstream-media-should-be-asking-about-this-coronavirus-outbreak

[nick sussex]

Something went seriously wrong on that cruise ship . It seems as if many of the passengers were just sitting targets for the virus .

Unless all those who tested positive caught the virus before the alleged quarantine then that has been an abject failure .

And having read the account on the previous page that seems to be the case .

[DAVID SNOW]

This thread was started on the 12th of January.

Some say the virus was 'around' weeks before this date.

In this all connected world we all now live in, why are the numbers still so very low?

There have been people saying for WEEKS that infection rates would double every couple of days, perhaps someone would put a number to where we 'should' have been by now, against where we are...

[Bristawl Si]

41 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Something went seriously wrong on that cruise ship . It seems as if many of the passengers were just sitting targets for the virus .

Unless all those who tested positive caught the virus before the alleged quarantine then that has been an abject failure .

And having read the account on the previous page that seems to be the case .

The cynic in me says the cruise ship 'quarantine' was an experiment that went ....erm....wrong, but i'm sure that's unfair of me. It seems from the accounts of the Doctor and the passenger that many basic factors of a quarantine environment were not followed  e.g. the crew continuing to 'deliver' to the cabins, without protective suits, etc, so just as likely that the crew were spreading the virus more than the actual passengers. Yes, a monumental mess-up by the Japanese 'authorities'.

As per David's post just now, yes it is strange there have been no more confirmed cases here in UK, but then again, if for many normally healthy people the virus is not really noticeably different from a heavy cold i guess many could be affected without realising, and may never know they carry, or once carried, the coronavirus.

And to answer Snowyowl's point 9, well, basically, because strict quarantine 'rules' were not in operation on the cruise ship.

Edited February 20, 2020 by Bristle boy

[swebby]

49 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

10 Very Important Questions That The Mainstream Media Should Be Asking About This Coronavirus Outbreak.

1 The Washington State Department of Health has announced that 746 people are currently being "monitored" for coronavirus symptoms.  Are all 746 being quarantined, or are they being allowed to mix with the general public?  According to the agency's official website, it is unclear what "monitoring their health" actually entails...

2 In Hawaii, a local resident named John Fukiwara recently had very close contact with a Japanese man that later was confirmed to be infected by the coronavirus.  After contacting health officials, why was Fukiwara told to "go about his normal day-to-day routine"?...

3 If this coronavirus outbreak "isn't that serious", then why has everyone in Hubei province now been ordered to stay at home until further notice?

4 If this coronavirus outbreak "isn't that serious", then why did Russia just ban all Chinese citizens from entering the country?...

5 Chinese officials have just released data which show that this virus "could be 20 times more lethal than the flu".  Why does hardly anyone in the western world know about this?...

6 Why is this virus killing 15 percent of all victims that are over the age of 80?...

7 On the flip side, why are so few children being infected by this virus?...

8 What is this coronavirus outbreak going to mean for the entire global economy?

9 Why did the coronavirus continue to spread like wildfire aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship even after a quarantine was initiated?...

10 The number of confirmed cases outside of China has doubled in less than a week.  If the number of cases continues to double every week, how bad will this crisis eventually become?

I'll answer that one.

If the number of confirmed cases outside of China doubles every week, there will be a million cases just 10 weeks from now.

And once there are a million people with coronavirus walking around all over the planet, nobody is going to be able to "contain" it.

So let us hope that the measures that authorities are currently taking to control the spread of this disease will work.

President Trump believes that this outbreak will start to fizzle when warmer weather arrives, and I truly hope that he is correct.

Because right now this outbreak is getting worse with each passing day, and we definitely aren't getting good information about this crisis from the mainstream media.

Ands thats your homework for tonight kiddies.

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/10-very-important-questions-that-the-mainstream-media-should-be-asking-about-this-coronavirus-outbreak

Good Q's, one and all.

Question 3 answers itself - it is serious.

Questions 6 & 7 are interesting ones.  Nearly all of the deaths have been in China, so the life expectancy (ca 76yrs) and air pollution may have an important roles for the over 80's mortality rates. Smoking appears to be a given in terms of poor outcome.  The near absence of issues with the very young however may suggest that something specific about the way the virus infects using ACE-2 is leaving them in the clear?

Again - all speculation on my part.

[nick sussex]

The big problem now is with an increase in cases in countries surrounding China and with travel restrictions not in place in those  how will that impact us in Europe .

Since last Thursday  there’s been only one new confirmed case of the Corona virus amongst EU/EEA and UK. That was here in France on the 16th February .

Thats welcome news for us in Europe but the concern now is really what’s going to happen in places like South Korea , Japan .

And whether with flights still going there that we might see some import from those countries .

I think so far we’ve been incredibly lucky in Europe , I really hope it stays that way .

 

[swebby]

20 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

This thread was started on the 12th of January.

Some say the virus was 'around' weeks before this date.

In this all connected world we all now live in, why are the numbers still so very low?

There have been people saying for WEEKS that infection rates would double every couple of days, perhaps someone would put a number to where we 'should' have been by now, against where we are...

A very good question, especially as the Diamond Princess is clear indication that it is rather infectious.

I think it may be a case of the measures China imposed being just in time to stop a runaway spread?

Yes there is a lot of global travel and a large number of cases in China. But expressed as a percentage of the population of just Wuhan, the case number is still actually very low (less than 1%).  If you then times that 1% by the percentage of Chinese that travelled internationally prior to the travel restrictions, you are going to get an extremely low value and that has probably created a useful bottle neck to prevent global spread. 

However, this would only be a bottle neck, not a barrier that will stop the virus in it's tracks.  If this thing manages to jump into places like Dhaka, Sao Paulo, Karachi or Delhi; cities containing large shanty towns, not well equipped with western levels of health care or the authoritarian control China can bring to bear, then at that point we will be entirely reliant on environmental factors to stop an explosive spread.

[Snipper]

I went in a cruise and came back early January. I have a cough and some tightness of chest. Should I be concerned?

I think not for a number of reasons.

First of all I had a cough before I left sunny Essex. Travelled to Barcelona and ended up at exotic Tilbury.  I don’t intend going to the doctors as I have had cough checked out before. 

If this all gets more obviously serious I will be loath to go out as a fearful and accusing eyes might be directed towards me. Nobody likes anyone coughing. Particularly me. 

[swebby]

36 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

The cynic in me says the cruise ship 'quarantine' was an experiment that went ....erm....wrong, but i'm sure that's unfair of me. It seems from the accounts of the Doctor and the passenger that many basic factors of a quarantine environment were not followed  e.g. the crew continuing to 'deliver' to the cabins, without protective suits, etc, so just as likely that the crew were spreading the virus more than the actual passengers. Yes, a monumental mess-up by the Japanese 'authorities'.

As per David's post just now, yes it is strange there have been no more confirmed cases here in UK, but then again, if for many normally healthy people the virus is not really noticeably different from a heavy cold i guess many could be affected without realising, and may never know they carry, or once carried, the coronavirus.

And to answer Snowyowl's point 9, well, basically, because strict quarantine 'rules' were not in operation on the cruise ship.

If you wanted to design an experiment where you could monitor the spread, were able to control the environment but were also able ensure containment, that experiment would look an awful lot like the Diamond Princess........ so i would say your cynicism is just natural intuition.

But before we disappear down a rabbit hole of conspiracy theories, I will argue that the Diamond Princess is the result of a more mundane process, that of human incompetence and misguided officialdom?

 

[swebby]

12 minutes ago, Snipper said:

I went in a cruise and came back early January. I have a cough and some tightness of chest. Should I be concerned?

I think not for a number of reasons.

First of all I had a cough before I left sunny Essex. Travelled to Barcelona and ended up at exotic Tilbury.  I don’t intend going to the doctors as I have had cough checked out before. 

If this all gets more obviously serious I will be loath to go out as a fearful and accusing eyes might be directed towards me. Nobody likes anyone coughing. Particularly me. 

NB - If you still have a cough/tightness in the chest, especially with no other cold like symptoms, then i would advise on going back to the Doctors. Nowt to do with Covid-19! Everything to do with a prolonged cough/tightness in the chest (lasting longer than 3-4 weeks) being something that should always be checked out.  Likely to nothing more than a bug or an allergy, but better safe than sorry.

[Gray-Wolf]

Coronavirus may be spreading so quickly due to fecal transmission, researchers suggest | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

---

New research suggests that fecal transmission may be behind the fast spread of coronavirus, with one expert saying this may be the case particularly...

 

[Snipper]

49 minutes ago, swebby said:

NB - If you still have a cough/tightness in the chest, especially with no other cold like symptoms, then i would advise on going back to the Doctors. Nowt to do with Covid-19! Everything to do with a prolonged cough/tightness in the chest (lasting longer than 3-4 weeks) being something that should always be checked out.  Likely to nothing more than a bug or an allergy, but better safe than sorry.

Thanks. 
 

All checked out over the years. Xrays, allergy tests, ears nose and throat specialist. Had the problem for as long as I can remember. Basically a rhinitis problem. 

[Spikecollie]

52 minutes ago, swebby said:

NB - If you still have a cough/tightness in the chest, especially with no other cold like symptoms, then i would advise on going back to the Doctors. Nowt to do with Covid-19! Everything to do with a prolonged cough/tightness in the chest (lasting longer than 3-4 weeks) being something that should always be checked out.  Likely to nothing more than a bug or an allergy, but better safe than sorry.

Don't stress! Go to the doctor and get checked out. Probably, as they say, "non specific". Means can't be arsed to go further and you're a healthy bunny so go forth!!! I'm going forth, slowly!!!

[Snipper]

1 minute ago, Spikecollie said:

Don't stress! Go to the doctor and get checked out. Probably, as they say, "non specific". Means can't be arsed to go further and you're a healthy bunny so go forth!!! I'm going forth, slowly!!!

As mentioned to Swebby had it checked out over the years. Not stressed just fed up with it.  I am not the sort who is scared of going to the doctors. Had a lot worse than a cough to contend with over the years. Having said that I only go when needed. Have a good working relationship with my doctor.  As getting appointments can be a pain she said just ring and she will ring back instead of making an appointment if it is something that can just be reasonably discussed on the phone. 
 

Quite interesting doing my volunteering at the medical school. Last week I was a there as a patient that the student doctors had to review and assess me. Had a script about my symptoms. The script happened to indicate I had a cough. I was poked, pummelled, and tested.  Some were good and others useless even allowing for their age and inexperience. 
 

An enjoyable volunteering job. Sure beats working in the gardens at a National Trust property this time of the year. 

[DAVID SNOW]

1 hour ago, swebby said:

A very good question, especially as the Diamond Princess is clear indication that it is rather infectious.

I think it may be a case of the measures China imposed being just in time to stop a runaway spread?

Yes there is a lot of global travel and a large number of cases in China. But expressed as a percentage of the population of just Wuhan, the case number is still actually very low (less than 1%).  If you then times that 1% by the percentage of Chinese that travelled internationally prior to the travel restrictions, you are going to get an extremely low value and that has probably created a useful bottle neck to prevent global spread. 

However, this would only be a bottle neck, not a barrier that will stop the virus in it's tracks.  If this thing manages to jump into places like Dhaka, Sao Paulo, Karachi or Delhi; cities containing large shanty towns, not well equipped with western levels of health care or the authoritarian control China can bring to bear, then at that point we will be entirely reliant on environmental factors to stop an explosive spread.

Put simply( for my own mind lol)  there are millions of journeys undertaken every day in London, the underground(perfect spreader)? Overground, buses,cabs, offices, pubs and so on, but where is it? Is it already here as BB alludes to, is it similar to having a heavy cold, not very nice, but also not particularly deadly?

Western levels of health care  obviously help, but no deaths in London, population 8 million and over several weeks..hmm.

[Snipper]

Could it be the Chinese human make up makes them more prone than other races?  We have all heard of the supposed positives of a Mediterranean diet for lower heart disease. 
 

Time will tell if are all basically in the same pot or not. 

[Gael_Force]

Another doctor falls victim to the disease.

Quote

Local media in #Wuhan reported that Peng Yun-Hua, a respiratory physician at #Wuhan’s First People’s Hospital, postponed his wedding to treat patients at the frontline. However, he contracted #SARSCoV2 and died on February 20 local time in Wuhan.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Hmmmm, for fun, is there any nation that has an issue with both Iran and China currently?

Though Iran has been pretty tight on controlling their borders if we see them fall foul to this virus can anyone think of a nation with both 'grudge' and 'clout enough' to single out such for such and have a leader mad enough to let their 'Hawks' loose on the project?

EDIT: I suppose the nation must also be proven in their acceptance of 'collateral' during their foreign 'exercises'?

Edited February 20, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[ciel]

EXCLUSIVE: Possible Fife coronavirus cases probed as tests carried out in the community - The Courier

WWW.THECOURIER.CO.UK

---

A Levenmouth woman is among a number of Fifers who have been tested for possible coronavirus symptoms.

It is reassuring to know that, hopefully, robust procedures are in place in order to contain, as far is possible, potential spread.

[Gray-Wolf]

2 minutes ago, ciel said:

EXCLUSIVE: Possible Fife coronavirus cases probed as tests carried out in the community - The Courier

WWW.THECOURIER.CO.UK

---

A Levenmouth woman is among a number of Fifers who have been tested for possible coronavirus symptoms.

It is reassuring to know that, hopefully, robust procedures are in place in order to contain, as far is possible, potential spread.

Hi Ciel!

I worry that with a virus capable of spreading 'asymptomatically' for up to (max we see reported?) 24 days that it is hard to contain?

Iran was supposedly 'sewn up tight' but, because of their religious gatherings at Ohms, the opportunity for spread from 1 'super spreader' was there?

Ther same in Singapore with their Christian 'cult' and their regular 8,000+ gatherings allowing opportunity for a big infection ( as appears to be evolving?)

Now think on international airport Hubs and how many folk travel through them each and every day?

If we are told there is 'fecal' transfer then the 'Now wash your hands' (singing 'happy birthday twice over') would seem to make sense?

I think we hold our breath and wait a month to see just how this evolves outside of China?

[DAVID SNOW]

I too will ne watching developments in overcrowded London, that so far has had no deaths from corona virus

Similar situation in the EU.... 500,000,000  and how many corona deaths ?

None?

[Spikecollie]

Maybe folks will finally be motivated to wash their hands after using the bog...

The number of males (especially) but females (not exempt) who creep (crap) in and out without is phenomenal. Just by admission - we don't do workplace surveiillance here - it's illegal and long may it be so.