Novel Coronavirus – China

[fujita5]

Just now, Gray-Wolf said:

Are we up to day 13 of quarantine on the Diamond Princess now?

Either the period of incubation is very long or the quarantine is not working there?

It's getting around very easily.  Even if passengers are confined to their quarters then they must be getting brought food, drinks etc?  Are those people lucky enough to have open windows and balconies transmitting it through the air to each other?  It does seem strange that it's moving so fast if it can't use the air conditioning. 

[Gray-Wolf]

This is also concerning;

".....The other patient, surnamed Ning, was confirmed to be infected 94 days after coming into contact with his father-in-law, surnamed Zhang, who had been to a Wuhan hospital for medical treatment. 

Ning began to live with and take care of Zhang on November 13, then moved back to his own home on January 31 after Zhang passed away. 

Zhang only left his home three times to go to the supermarket and pharmacy until going to the hospital on January 14."

From;

Unusual COVID-19 cases discovered in Henan, infection sources unknown, showing strong contagiosity

WWW.GLOBALTIMES.CN

---

Two unusual COVID-19 cases were reported in Xinxian county in Central China's Henan Province on Sunday, which shows strong contagiosity and whose sources of infection could not be...

 

[Dreckly]

Real-time update on coronavirus outbreak

WWW.GLOBALTIMES.CN

---

Latest in battle against coronavirus

 

[Gael_Force]

40 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

".....The other patient, surnamed Ning, was confirmed to be infected 94 days after coming into contact with his father-in-law, surnamed Zhang, who had been to a Wuhan hospital for medical treatment. 

Ning began to live with and take care of Zhang on November 13, then moved back to his own home on January 31 after Zhang passed away. 

Zhang only left his home three times to go to the supermarket and pharmacy until going to the hospital on January 14."

If the timeline is correct, COVID was circulating in early November and then passed on to the son: could account for explosion of numbers by late January. Was the infection spreading in hospitals as early as October of last year? Now we know how infectious it is, more likely he later caught the virus at the pharmacy where he would come into contact with sick people.

This virus seems to have the ability to be carried in 'silent' mode. We know that from the number of people who are well but have the virus detected during contact screening. Many aspects to this that are puzzling.

PS. Another 99 new cases on the cruise ship ... how is it transmitting when quarantine has been in place for almost 2 weeks?

Edited February 17, 2020 by Gael_Force

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi G.F.!

As I've said before I reckon only if (or when?) we see it circulating in a Developed World Country will we get answers to many questions concerning the bug?

A mixture of 'cover up' and overwhelmed health professionals give rise to a lot doubts in me about the info we have been getting from China?

All this time in and we still have no real handle on 'incubation periods' of the virus so our standard '2 weeks' may end up placing folk back into the general population just prior to the infection being present in the kind of numbers the testing will pick up?

As you say the quarantine period of '2 weeks' is up tomorrow on the Diamond Princess but the ongoing growth in cases there (including a 'Quarantine Officer'?) makes me doubt that their measures to isolate folk have been successful but have somehow been compromised?

Again I also must wonder if we are seeing a rapid evolution of the virus as it settles in to its new 'hosts' and that some of these changes are outstripping our attempts to confine it?

Edit: With W.H.O. now 'on the ground' in China (trying to gain a better picture of the outbreak there?) we may begin to get some answers?

Edited February 17, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Beverley Lass]

A hotel near Heathrow airport has been closed to the public and designated as a potential coronavirus quarantine centre as health officials prepare for more cases in the UK.

The Holiday Inn Heathrow Ariel hotel, on Bath Road, closed on Saturday with staff told it would not re-open for bookings until March at the earliest.

Sources told The Independent the hotel has been block booked as a potential quarantine zone for international visitors to the UK who develop coronavirus or for Britons evacuated to the UK from overseas.

Guests booked at the hotel, which is operated under franchise from the InterContinental Hotels Group, have been transferred to sister hotels.
 

Heathrow hotel closed and guests removed after health officials desi…

WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

---

A hotel near Heathrow airport has been closed to the public and designated as a potential coronavirus quarantine centre as health officials prepare for more cases in...

 

[Beverley Lass]

2 hours ago, Beverley Lass said:

Today an additional 99 cases of infection on the Diamond Princess ship.
What's going on with the spread there ?
I heard a medical prof. yesterday saying he thought it very unlikely it could spread through the ship's air-con.

B.

Japan is bracing for the possibility of hundreds of additional cases of the coronavirus onboard the stricken Princess Diamond, after health officials said on Monday that a further 99 people on the ship had tested positive.

The passengers already evacuated from the ship face further uncertainty too, with the US and Australian citizens set for a further two weeks of quarantine after arriving home. Hundreds of American passengers have flown back to the US and Australia said it would follow suit on Wednesday.

The US state department announced later that 14 of the 340 American evacuees were confirmed to have the virus in tests given before they boarded the planes. They were taken to the US because they did not have symptoms and were being isolated from other passengers on the planes, it said. It was not immediately clear whether the 14 were among the 99 new cases.

Onboard the Diamond Princess, 454 people have been diagnosed with Covid-19 out of an original total of about 3,600 passengers and crew. Japan’s health ministry said it had tested 1,723 people on the vessel.

Forty American passengers who were diagnosed with the virus on Sunday have been transferred to hospitals in Japan. Most of the people on the ship, which has the largest number of cases outside China, have yet to be tested.

The health ministry will continue to test passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess, whose 14-day quarantine was due to end on Wednesday.

Japanese public health experts advising the government defended the decision to isolate passengers and crew on the ship, even as the number of cases increased again on Monday.

“Many people are testing positive on the ship, but that is because we are testing everyone onboard, regardless of their medical condition,” said Shigeru Omi, the chief director of the Japan Community Health Care Organisation. “And 70% of those testing positive are not showing any symptoms at all.”

Omi said any disruption to this summer’s Tokyo Olympics – including the Games’ cancellation – would depend on how and if the virus mutates in the coming months, as well as the effectiveness of the international community’s attempts to contain the outbreak.

“Whether the virus is under control by the time of the Olympics is anyone’s guess,” he said at a media briefing in Tokyo.

Omi conceded that tracing the chain of domestic transmissions not related to the Diamond Princes was proving difficult, but denied Japan, which has confirmed 65 cases on land, was becoming a second major infection cluster.

“Our focus now is on community-based preventative action to lower the speed of the transmission of the virus,” he said. “It is true that there have been silent transmissions, but Japan is certainly not in a state of pandemic.”

[feb1991blizzard]

2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

This is also concerning;

".....The other patient, surnamed Ning, was confirmed to be infected 94 days after coming into contact with his father-in-law, surnamed Zhang, who had been to a Wuhan hospital for medical treatment. 

Ning began to live with and take care of Zhang on November 13, then moved back to his own home on January 31 after Zhang passed away. 

Zhang only left his home three times to go to the supermarket and pharmacy until going to the hospital on January 14."

From;

 

 

Told you - this is armageddon - 94 days for heaven sake??  - smacks even more of a designer virus to me.

Edited February 17, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi B.L.!

We know that the healthcare staff in the Wuhan Hospitals have taken a major hit from the virus and I wonder if this is from working with patients in isolation of just the background cases in Wuhan?

With one of the Quarantine Officers dealing with the Diamond Princess catching Covid-19 it might become the case that the hospitals themselves, via staff and patients not attending for treatment of the virus, become a means of transmission into the general population there?

Hospitals have a lot of throughput on a daily basis and a lot of folk sat at close quarters awaiting being seen?

Edited February 17, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[fujita5]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Told you - this is armageddon - 94 days for heaven sake??  - smacks even more of a designer virus to me.

Not so sure of that, at least I'd like to believe it's not the case.... Maybe the ability for the virus to survive outside of the body has been underestimated and it can last much longer than other viruses because of its specific protein shell? Maybe it can lurk in the environment for a really long time making it seem like it's behaving unnaturally?

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi feb1999blizzard!

We have no idea if his Father-in-law was originally sick with Covid-19, only that he was sick?

He may well have contracted the virus at a later date whilst already suffering with his initial ailment?

His Son -in-Law likewise?

I think it does highlight that, in Wuhan at least, it's everywhere and very catchy?

EDIT: Hi Fujita5 !

Yup, it is this ability to lurk outside the host that seems to be causing issues? Ther mass 'disinfections' of whole cities suggest that the authorities there know its a tricksy little beggar and are leaving nothing to chance?

Keeping everyone indoors (apart from one householder every 3 days being allowed out to get provisions?) keeps the bug off the fabric of the city as they try to disinfect the heck out of it!!!

Edited February 17, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, fujita5 said:

Not so sure of that, at least I'd like to believe it's not the case.... Maybe the ability for the virus to survive outside of the body has been underestimated and it can last much longer than other viruses because of its specific protein shell? Maybe it can lurk in the environment for a really long time making it seem like it's behaving unnaturally?

But that would be equally as bigger problem - its armageddon either way, if it survives on surfaces for 94 days, i at least work on the basis that once i have all my shopping done then after 7 days of no new products in my house, i can only catch colds or flu by outside contact, if i don't go out then i am fine but 94!!!

[Gael_Force]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But that would be equally as bigger problem - its armageddon either way, if it survives on surfaces for 94 days, i at least work on the basis that once i have all my shopping done then after 7 days of no new products in my house, i can only catch colds or flu by outside contact, if i don't go out then i am fine but 94!!!

I'm a journalist, not a virologist but I would be more inclined to think that the virus is maybe spread by shedding from asymptomatic carriers. Seems unlikely the virus can live for so long on surfaces.

A snip from the article from @Beverley Lass

Quote

“Many people are testing positive on the ship, but that is because we are testing everyone onboard, regardless of their medical condition,” said Shigeru Omi, the chief director of the Japan Community Health Care Organisation. “And 70% of those testing positive are not showing any symptoms at all.”

 

[fujita5]

3 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

“And 70% of those testing positive are not showing any symptoms at all.”

70% asymptomatic.  That's a very good way for a virus to get itself spread around everywhere isn't it!

We just need to get a handle on what happens to the 30% that DO develop symptoms.  What percentage end up hospitalised and what percentage end up dead?  The true figures are still unknown.

[Gray-Wolf]

This is why I convinced myself it is already here in the UK and spreading...... just that nobody's noticed yet due to a long incubation period and the symptoms being mild for many?

From what we have been seeing from other places the notion of 'confining' it appear a bit of a stretch until we have 100% (as near as damn!) testing no matter how small the viral loading of a person then folk will slip through the net and, with 'renewed confidence' that they are not a spreader, go about their day to day lives without a care......only that they are spreading and the false negative has put their nearest and dearest's health at risk!

The other thing is I think there was a nasty mutation in the virus around a week before the Chinese began to get frantic?

It might be that we have the mild strain from prior to that mutation circulating but that does not mean the nastier one will not find a path out of Wuhan/Hubei province over time and come visiting one we've all told ourselves it ain't that bad?

Anyhow this is just me twittering and not bringing new info to the table so I'll park it there!

[jonboy]

6 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

This is why I convinced myself it is already here in the UK and spreading...... just that nobody's noticed yet due to a long incubation period and the symptoms being mild for many?

From what we have been seeing from other places the notion of 'confining' it appear a bit of a stretch until we have 100% (as near as damn!) testing no matter how small the viral loading of a person then folk will slip through the net and, with 'renewed confidence' that they are not a spreader, go about their day to day lives without a care......only that they are spreading and the false negative has put their nearest and dearest's health at risk!

The other thing is I think there was a nasty mutation in the virus around a week before the Chinese began to get frantic?

It might be that we have the mild strain from prior to that mutation circulating but that does not mean the nastier one will not find a path out of Wuhan/Hubei province over time and come visiting one we've all told ourselves it ain't that bad?

Anyhow this is just me twittering and not bringing new info to the table so I'll park it there!

The problem GW is that the very mild symptoms are the same as every other viruses that go round at this time of year. The runny nose and cough associated with said runny nose you might or might not have a sore throat and you might or might not have a bit up and down temperature. (I've had all of those in the last week. I didn't feel ill just a bit deflated with the constant blowing of the nose. When it got going I stayed at home for three days but never seriously though I had the big C as I've not travelled overseas or knowingly been anywhere with the virus, unless you class the whole of York as an at risk area.) Unless we have a mass testing regime we will not know the true extent the virus is in our population already.

Good to see your home town escaped this weekend.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks for the good wishes jonboy!

You think you can read the weather via sat maps & rainfall radar but when the Army are out in force toting sand bags you can't help but occasionally think "Am I missing something?"..... but all was well thank you very much!

As for York? Who knows? If our two cases from there had been out and about and ,'If' it does live on hard surfaces for a long while, then others may have been exposed and they will now be spreading it further? But then , as you say, if it's just 'a cold' to you and you're not a returnee from the Far East why would you thing it was Covid-19?

I see there are another 2 confirmed in Singapore?

Two new COVID-19 cases in Singapore, total stands at 77

WWW.BERNAMA.COM

---

COVID-19, Singapore, Wuhan, DBS, positive

and I know a lot of 'World Travellers' find connecting flights there?

Again if it is a bit of a lurker then who knows how many folk have unknowingly picked it up as the changed flights?

I know the route to and from Oz (and NZ) has layovers there and, I suppose, all the 'Winter Sun' trippers on their way to their Island paradises also find connections to their final destination there?

It is beginning to look like both Japan and Singapore have it among them now?

Edited February 17, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[emax]

4 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Ning began to live with and take care of Zhang on November 13, then moved back to his own home on January 31 after Zhang passed away. 

Zhang only left his home three times to go to the supermarket and pharmacy until going to the hospital on January 14."

I'm confused by all the hysteria with this? There is no mention of where the son in law Ning went? Unlikely to think that the son in law stayed at his father in laws house and never left for that whole period. And they say he went back to his own home on 31 Jan.....so whos to say he didnt catch it then? Sounds very very inconclusive to me?

 

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Told you - this is armageddon - 94 days for heaven sake??  - smacks even more of a designer virus to me.

Im not even going to comment on this lol. And theres apparently no hysteria in this thread haha?

 

 

As for the cruise ship. I'm confused why people are getting so concerned? Firstly its a cruise ship, so ANY virus of any kind spreads like wildfire! Secondly, only half the people on the ship have been tested, and thats whether they have symptoms or not. Last I read, the reason they hadnt tested more people was because they simply havent got the resources to test so many people so quickly. So this may have NOTHING to do with a long incubation period.....there could still be hundreds infected with the virus, but nobody knows because they arent showing symptoms and havent been tested yet. Finding new infections now, doesnt mean that they've only just caught the virus for gawd sake. And thirdly, it needs saying again, ITS A CRUISE SHIP. People get infected the first week, they pass it on to others, and they get infected the second week. I'm struggling to see how this in any way relates to an incubation period anywhere near longer than 14 days lol.

 

Sensationalism is rife in here yet again, and that is what will do the harm in the real world!!! News headlines saying Japan will go into recession because of COVID-19......they were nearly there anyway, it will happen anyway, regardless of this virus, it just might happen sooner now!

[emax]

24 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Two new COVID-19 cases in Singapore, total stands at 77

WWW.BERNAMA.COM

---

COVID-19, Singapore, Wuhan, DBS, positive

and I know a lot of 'World Travellers' find connecting flights there?

Again if it is a bit of a lurker then who knows how many folk have unknowingly picked it up as the changed flights?

I know the route to and from Oz (and NZ) has layovers there and, I suppose, all the 'Winter Sun' trippers on their way to their Island paradises also find connections to their final destination there?

It is beginning to look like both Japan and Singapore have it among them now?

I'd like to think its spread rapidly around the world already, just most show mild symptoms. Again, its still a waiting game. Far too early for anything concrete still!

[Gray-Wolf]

17 minutes ago, emax said:

I'd like to think its spread rapidly around the world already, just most show mild symptoms. Again, its still a waiting game. Far too early for anything concrete still!

Hi Emax!

Agreed we're in a 'wait and see' period

In my past the spectre of rapid spread of a novel virus via international air travel was always what concerned me the most?

But then those concerns were about the kind of 'SARS' escape where a 'sick' person travels and spreads the sickness?

 

I never once imagined asymptomatic transfer for a virus? I just didn't know such was even a 'thing'?

As such ,as you say, all we can do is wait to see if it is out?

If it follows the Wuhan pattern then by the time you see the numbers Singapore now have you are on the verge of it 'going viral' ?(as we saw in Wuhan?)

EDIT: Look at the date that Wuhan had mid 70's confirmed cases then look at the numbers 2 weeks later?

EDIT:EDIT: I though Guests and Crew on the Diamond Princess had been on strict lockdown this past 13 days?

I understand that if folk are in such close quarters for weeks then folk will share widely but I thought the Quarantine was supposed to keep all passengers separated with a strict face mask policy when they were allowed out of their cabins?

Edited February 17, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[fujita5]

5 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I never once imagined asymptomatic transfer for a virus? I just didn't know such was even a 'thing'?

Apparently this is a common thing for microorganisms.  Seems like it's a fantastic way to get around.  Let's face it, if you're going to kill your host within a couple of days they're not going to get the chance to pass you on.

Asymptomatic carrier - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

[Gray-Wolf]

4 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

Apparently this is a common thing for microorganisms.  Seems like it's a fantastic way to get around.  Let's face it, if you're going to kill your host within a couple of days they're not going to get the chance to pass you on.

Asymptomatic carrier - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

Well I'm glad that was not on my 'worry list' back in the day!!!!

Thanks for the heads up though!

[Gray-Wolf]

Cruise ship US passengers home to new quarantine

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Hundreds of US citizens who were on the coronavirus-hit Diamond Princess face further quarantine.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Who: "Daily media briefing on #COVID19 with @DrTedros"

WWW.PSCP.TV

---

Daily media briefing on #COVID19 with @DrTedros

 

[swebby]

4 hours ago, fujita5 said:

Not so sure of that, at least I'd like to believe it's not the case.... Maybe the ability for the virus to survive outside of the body has been underestimated and it can last much longer than other viruses because of its specific protein shell? Maybe it can lurk in the environment for a really long time making it seem like it's behaving unnaturally?

Or?..........

It is readily carried by a vector.  If it is in an urban environment, you would suspect the vector to be a type of pet, or a type of vermin.

Edit - i should add a third option, insects. Yellow fever, Zika, etc are carried by mosquito's, although i would assume the issue of mossies in central China in winter must be rather low?

Edited February 17, 2020 by swebby