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Snipper

Novel Coronavirus – China

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11 minutes ago, Snipper said:

It remains puzzling why China has been hit so hard. Because a big pool of cases built up before they did anything much?  Or what?

Don’t want to be lulled into a false sense of security  

 

Yes, most likely hundreds of people were already infected before the first cases needed hospitalisation due to the fact the illness takes a while becoming severe in susceptible patients (seems like initial stages are mild before worsening). Thousands probably had it before Dr Li tried to raise the alarm.

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44 minutes ago, Snipper said:

It remains puzzling why China has been hit so hard. Because a big pool of cases built up before they did anything much?  Or what?

Don’t want to be lulled into a false sense of security  

 

192-8-1355.pdf

this article is interesting regarding this.

polymorph.png

Edited by Dreckly
Added screen print
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20 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

One for B.B.;

wuhan%20CDC.png?itok=8ZjKqkCJ
WWW.ZEROHEDGE.COM

"In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the...

 

Hi GW, may i offer some friendly advice please?

If this is the kind of site/article that are forming your opinions of covid-2019, then i urge you to please, please, take a step back and to stop visiting sites like this for "information".  I think you will probably feel a lot less agitated and as a result better able to digest the news on Covid-2019.  If you want to follow the progression of covid-2019 then maybe just stick with WHO/CDC updates? I get that you may be very worried, and might suspect that WHO are painting an incomplete picture, but i assure you that their updates are a lot nearer to reality than the above article by Mr Durden.

The article is bad, and i mean really really bad!  I would call the author "Tyler Durden" a bloody idiot, or a crap journalist, but based on the way the article is constructed that is sadly not the case. No! Instead i have to view the author as being a very dangerous individual (i'm being polite here), that has carefully and cleverly constructed the article to pray on the worst fears of an uninformed general public. This is presumably to drive web traffic and advertising revenue? If anyone reading this article was thinking "but but they have a point" "i believe them" then please don't feel foolish, this stuff is skillfully written to lure the reader. The writing is sensationalist and speculative, specifically crafted to "suggest" things without actually making the claim in black and white* thus adding to the mystery/conspiracy and that you the reader are "privileged and in the know".  Durden manages to imply the following: the virus is man made, it is a bio weapon, the mainstream media "fabricate reality", china are involved in a cover up, there are "secret" Wuhan laboratories and even invokes the holy grail of the "C.I.A".  In order to substantiate these "suggestions" he uses the fig leaf of a scientific communication by Botao Xiao, that it calls a "smoking gun" report. I will come to the quality (or lack of) the Botao Xiao's scientific communication in a mo, but what i can tell you is that this communication does not at any stage claim there are "secret" Wuhan laboratories, it does not claim the virus is bio-engineered, it dose not claim it is a bio weapon, and it does not intimate that there is a cover up. 

*(this is a common trick. the likes of the history channel's Giorgio Tsoukalos do it all the time, saying no it is not aliens to the camera, whilst winking at the camera and nodding their head to imply "Yes, of course it is aliens!". This is normally harmless entertainment when it is silly stuff like aliens, lochness monsters and atlantis, But when it is used for for stuff that actually can do harm to people it becomes something repellent.)

As for the scientific communication itself? For those that are interested, IMO it is jaffa cakes poor! I know this because i am able to pick holes in it on first reading.  If i can do this, it would never make it past a proper peer review process for an actual paper. Even for a scientific communication, it is full of conjecture (a laboratory source for Covid-2019) with next to no substantive evidence. The only facts it does give are the google map locations of two laboratories (are these the oh so "secret" Wuhan laboratories to which Mr Durden refers?), that the wuhan market did not sell bats and some info of sample collection in regards bats speciemen's at one of the laboratories that carry the closely related Bat CoV ZC45 coronavirus. The paper seems to imply that because the samples were collected from over 900km away from the outbreak epicentre, the laboratories bat specimens have to be a more likely route for Covid-2019 to jump to the populous than the Wuhan food market.  This is an outlandishly big jump to a conclusion! First, CoV ZC45 is not the same as Covid-2019, a 4-11% difference in genetic make up is a massive difference. Second, the argument of a bat colony not flying 900km is fine, but is spurious,  it ignores that cities actually have indigenous bat populations! Third, the bat specimens referred to were collected back in 2017 and 2013!  I read this communication and to me it seems to me the author may be using Covid-19 to have a gripe, possibly justified, about the quality of H&S in china's state funded bio-labs.

Now, i have had a rant on this because i am seriously angry about Mr Durden's article. It is taking advantage of the suffering and the death of others and the fear of many.  That is about as despicable a level of human behaviour as there is.  For anyone posting on this forum, please have a think before hitting submit. Yes, Covid-19 is worrying but publicising stuff like this without proper consideration is only providing the oxygen for leaches like Mr Durden to make a living off the misfortune others. If anyone has any q's on this then please do ask.

Edited by swebby
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53 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

?  ACE2 Expression in Kidney and Testis May Cause Kidney and Testis Damage After 2019-nCoV Infection

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022418v1.full.pdf

 

I think (but not certain) that i have seen somewhere that diabetes is one of the underlying health conditions that will lead to a poor outcome? Given diabetes may indicate the presence of kidney damage then this would tie in with a poor outcome if the kidneys are being further damaged.

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Calm your Jets sweb's , it was merely a gentle 'wind' for B.B. and I'm sorry it has caused you such angst

I am no stranger to the crazy side of 'tinternet and this comes from our redneck friends over on 'solar Cycle24.com which you might pay a visit to and see just how whacked out some forums are over Covid-19!

As I hope you will see when you re-examine my posts most are from medical sources or govt sources or our own MSM?

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2 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Calm your Jets sweb's , it was merely a gentle 'wind' for B.B. and I'm sorry it has caused you such angst

I am no stranger to the crazy side of 'tinternet and this comes from our redneck friends over on 'solar Cycle24.com which you might pay a visit to and see just how whacked out some forums are over Covid-19!

As I hope you will see when you re-examine my posts most are from medical sources or govt sources or our own MSM?

That is very good to hear GW.  Think i will give solar cycle24 a miss however, sounds like it will do little for my composure?

The wacky side of the interweb appears to be, by in large, harmless for most. But when something wanders along and  people have to sit up and listen to official lines of communication for their own well being, then the penny drops that maybe it is not so harmless.

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I think our job here, swebby, is to try and get info on the 'R0' and mortality numbers so folk can gain some reassurance 'midst all the crazy talk'?

We should try and give folk the warnings that will aid them in staying well but that job is made difficult if folk 'shoot the messenger'  with every new bit of info/data we link to?

It IS a novel virus, meaning we have NO defense against it in our bodies, and we DO have a lot of folk in our community here at NetW with defects/weaknesses in their make up so this constant 'downplaying' of what some truly do fear could be 'life or death' infection is 'unhelpful'

As I noted many times in this thread I had,for over a decade, the responsibility of keeping one such soul safe from the things our 'complainers' would think a mere inconvenience in their lives?

They are compassionless and clueless to the realities of the fragility of such folk and it deeply distresses me to see their callous outpourings knowing full well of the hurt it causes others?

You also know that my health was badly impacted by the virus that took Luke so I am also 'careful' to be well?

This is not a Drill!!!

This IS the real deal and we'd better get ourselves prepped for its impacts over the coming months

 

 

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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1 hour ago, Snipper said:

It remains puzzling why China has been hit so hard. Because a big pool of cases built up before they did anything much?  Or what?

Don’t want to be lulled into a false sense of security  

I wonder what would have happened had COVID-19 (or whatever) first emerged, at a chicken farmers' conference, in a crowded Central London Hotel...My guess is, that it would (initially, at least) have been put down to a run-of-the-mill 'bug that's going round'? And how many peeps would get infected before anyone noticed anything out of the ordinary?

IMO no-one knows, in advance, precisely when and were novel viruses will emerge??

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41 minutes ago, swebby said:

Hi GW, may i offer some friendly advice please?

If this is the kind of site/article that are forming your opinions of covid-2019, then i urge you to please, please, take a step back and to stop visiting sites like this for "information".  I think you will probably feel a lot less agitated and as a result better able to digest the news on Covid-2019.  If you want to follow the progression of covid-2019 then maybe just stick with WHO/CDC updates? I get that you may be very worried, and might suspect that WHO are painting an incomplete picture, but i assure you that their updates are a lot nearer to reality than the above article by Mr Durden.

The article is bad, and i mean really really bad!  I would call the author "Tyler Durden" a bloody idiot, or a crap journalist, but based on the way the article is constructed that is sadly not the case. No! Instead i have to view the author as being a very dangerous individual (i'm being polite here), that has carefully and cleverly constructed the article to pray on the worst fears of an uninformed general public. This is presumably to drive web traffic and advertising revenue? If anyone reading this article was thinking "but but they have a point" "i believe them" then please don't feel foolish, this stuff is skillfully written to lure the reader. The writing is sensationalist and speculative, specifically crafted to "suggest" things without actually making the claim in black and white* thus adding to the mystery/conspiracy and that you the reader are "privileged and in the know".  Durden manages to imply the following: the virus is man made, it is a bio weapon, the mainstream media "fabricate reality", china are involved in a cover up, there are "secret" Wuhan laboratories and even invokes the holy grail of the "C.I.A".  In order to substantiate these "suggestions" he uses the fig leaf of a scientific communication by Botao Xiao, that it calls a "smoking gun" report. I will come to the quality (or lack of) the Botao Xiao's scientific communication in a mo, but what i can tell you is that this communication does not at any stage claim there are "secret" Wuhan laboratories, it does not claim the virus is bio-engineered, it dose not claim it is a bio weapon, and it does not intimate that there is a cover up. 

*(this is a common trick. the likes of the history channel's Giorgio Tsoukalos do it all the time, saying no it is not aliens to the camera, whilst winking at the camera and nodding their head to imply "Yes, of course it is aliens!". This is normally harmless entertainment when it is silly stuff like aliens, lochness monsters and atlantis, But when it is used for for stuff that actually can do harm to people it becomes something repellent.)

As for the scientific communication itself? For those that are interested, IMO it is jaffa cakes poor! I know this because i am able to pick holes in it on first reading.  If i can do this, it would never make it past a proper peer review process for an actual paper. Even for a scientific communication, it is full of conjecture (a laboratory source for Covid-2019) with next to no substantive evidence. The only facts it does give are the google map locations of two laboratories (are these the oh so "secret" Wuhan laboratories to which Mr Durden refers?), that the wuhan market did not sell bats and some info of sample collection in regards bats speciemen's at one of the laboratories that carry the closely related Bat CoV ZC45 coronavirus. The paper seems to imply that because the samples were collected from over 900km away from the outbreak epicentre, the laboratories bat specimens have to be a more likely route for Covid-2019 to jump to the populous than the Wuhan food market.  This is an outlandishly big jump to a conclusion! First, CoV ZC45 is not the same as Covid-2019, a 4-11% difference in genetic make up is a massive difference. Second, the argument of a bat colony not flying 900km is fine, but is spurious,  it ignores that cities actually have indigenous bat populations! Third, the bat specimens referred to were collected back in 2017 and 2013!  I read this communication and to me it seems to me the author may be using Covid-19 to have a gripe, possibly justified, about the quality of H&S in china's state funded bio-labs.

Now, i have had a rant on this because i am seriously angry about Mr Durden's article. It is taking advantage of the suffering and the death of others and the fear of many.  That is about as despicable a level of human behaviour as there is.  For anyone posting on this forum, please have a think before hitting submit. Yes, Covid-19 is worrying but publicising stuff like this without proper consideration is only providing the oxygen for leaches like Mr Durden to make a living off the misfortune others. If anyone has any q's on this then please do ask.

I think conspiracy theories along these lines were posted and dealt with in the first few pages on this thread.

And, yes, a quick glance at a ‘paper’ without considering the quality of information can lead to false conclusions, just as reliance on the experts and their opinions wheeled out on MSM to assuage joe public can so do.

For the avoidance of doubt, I have never suggested that Covid-19 is a mortal disease to which all may succumb worldwide, but the spread and potential impact of a novel virus is of major interest for now, and for the future.

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19 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I wonder what would have happened had COVID-19 (or whatever) first emerged, at a chicken farmers' conference, in a crowded Central London Hotel...My guess is, that it would (initially, at least) have been put down to a run-of-the-mill 'bug that's going round'? And how many peeps would get infected before anyone noticed anything out of the ordinary?

IMO no-one knows, in advance, precisely when and were novel viruses will emerge??

Or maybe a Hammers fan doing something dodgy to the lasagne?

Sorry, yep, i'm one of the enemy and i spot your avatar so  have to score a point where i can, especially given the woeful season that we are having.?

 

Edited by swebby
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27 minutes ago, ciel said:

I think conspiracy theories along these lines were posted and dealt with in the first few pages on this thread.

This is page 49, and they're still cropping up though, so a reminder doesnt do any harm

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4 minutes ago, emax said:

This is page 49, and they're still cropping up though, so a reminder doesnt do any harm

Not sure your timetable is quite right. 

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7 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Not sure your timetable is quite right. 

Come again lol?

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Anyway there has been a great big crash outside so I better go and investigate. As far as the weather is concerned not a relaxing evening.  Chainsaw and tools are as ever ready for action. Not sure the operator is after having had a bottle of his homemade beer. 
 

 

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Quote

 

China has reported a drop in new coronavirus cases for the third day in a row, as it became clear the country's leadership was aware of the outbreak's potential before the dangers were made public.

There were 2,009 new cases in mainland China on Saturday, bringing its total to 68,500, according to the country's National Health Commission.

 

skynews-wuhan-china-coronavirus_4916867.
NEWS.SKY.COM

The figures emerged after an elderly tourist in France became the first person to die from the virus in Europe.

 

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And for a little light relief in the thread;

 

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After all the hard work we  have seen China do to contain this virus will it be 'holidaymakers' that bring world wide spread?

merlin_168949833_93d5a6c5-6cba-4780-a9d6
WWW.NYTIMES.COM

Amid assurances that the Westerdam was disease free, hundreds of people disembarked in Cambodia and headed for airports. One was later found to be infected.

 

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Today an additional 99 cases of infection on the Diamond Princess ship.
What's going on with the spread there ?
I heard a medical prof. yesterday saying he thought it very unlikely it could spread through the ship's air-con.

B.

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22 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

After all the hard work we  have seen China do to contain this virus will it be 'holidaymakers' that bring world wide spread?

merlin_168949833_93d5a6c5-6cba-4780-a9d6
WWW.NYTIMES.COM

Amid assurances that the Westerdam was disease free, hundreds of people disembarked in Cambodia and headed for airports. One was later found to be infected.

 

Can't seem to access it, it's behind a subscription paywall.

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8 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

Can't seem to access it, it's behind a subscription paywall.

I can access it ok, try this link

merlin_168949833_93d5a6c5-6cba-4780-a9d6
WWW.NYTIMES.COM

Amid assurances that the Westerdam was disease free, hundreds of people disembarked in Cambodia and headed for airports. One was later found to be infected.

 

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7 minutes ago, Dreckly said:

I can access it ok, try this link

merlin_168949833_93d5a6c5-6cba-4780-a9d6
WWW.NYTIMES.COM

Amid assurances that the Westerdam was disease free, hundreds of people disembarked in Cambodia and headed for airports. One was later found to be infected.

 

I see the problem now, I've read a couple of articles previously and now I have to pay to view any others.  Another account is required methinks.... ?

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Just now, fujita5 said:

I see the problem now, I've read a couple of articles previously and now I have to pay to view any others.  Another account is required methinks.... ?

Or use Chrome Incognito

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Are we up to day 13 of quarantine on the Diamond Princess now?

Either the period of incubation is very long or the quarantine is not working there?

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