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Novel Coronavirus – China


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2 minutes ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

 

So, basically minimal, in context of Chinese pop. Many of the "critical" will already be infirm, aged, etc. No worries.

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Can I just say huge credit to all those in here who have talked so openly and bravely  about issues that often don’t get discussed in these types of forums . And also to thank all the members who

Okay, there appears to be a couple of ideas circulating on the forum which people may be getting carried away with? I understand why people are running with them, because it creates the idea that

Can we drop the conspiracy and misinformation type stuff in here please - we all have a responsibility not to spread that kind of thing, as well as the virus. In the real world, wash your hands!

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5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

So, basically minimal, in context of Chinese pop. Many of the "critical" will already be infirm, aged, etc. No worries.

Yep nothing to worry about just a little cold bug! While ~20% are in critical condition, could you imagine what that would do to our NHS, if it took hold here? The cases are likely substantially higher, regardless they have grown more than tenfold even twentyfold 64 last Thursday, I think it was, but nothing to see here BB knows all! 

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Yes a 25% critical condition level would see the NHS brought to its knees. No doubt you'd have people passing away on trolleys in corridors, doesn't bear thinking about. 

Whatever anyone says, flu doesn't leave 25% of those infected needing critical treatment.

With the current assessment of the virus, if this becomes a major outbreak in the UK, we'll all know someone who is either killed or hospitalised by this virus. Grim thought.

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Looking at this more closely, it appears that the mortality rate is following that of viral pneumonia quite closely. So It's possible that this is essentially a more virulent strain of viral pneumonia. Which means that people with breathing conditions and the elderly will be at high risk.

I think it takes about 2 weeks to recover from viral pneumonia...the hit on the economy if this becomes widespread could be catastrophic.

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43 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looking at this more closely, it appears that the mortality rate is following that of viral pneumonia quite closely. So It's possible that this is essentially a more virulent strain of viral pneumonia. Which means that people with breathing conditions and the elderly will be at high risk.

I think it takes about 2 weeks to recover from viral pneumonia...the hit on the economy if this becomes widespread could be catastrophic.

This is a bad one, a real bad one.ive seen footage of that meat market at the centre of this, and words fail me.

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23830590-0-image-a-22_1579885200571.jpg
WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

Scientists at the prestigious Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Maryland modeled a hypothetical pandemic on a computer as part of research last October.

 

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7 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

So, basically minimal, in context of Chinese pop. Many of the "critical" will already be infirm, aged, etc. No worries.

My 20 year old daughter at uni with newly diagnosed asthma and my 64 year old dad with early stage copd would definitely be thinking “no worries” if it does become a widespread issue for the UK.

I’m not saying it will be an issue as there’s not enough data yet, however I do feel you’re just trying to troll others having a sensible discussion about the communicability and effects of a new, as yet not yet fully understood, virus.

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Well I've seen 'R0' numbers from 3.3 up to 14(from a purported Dr in one of the Wuhan hospitals)

R3.3 would need us to stop 75% of those catching it passing it on before we mastered the virus.

Does it look like China has managed this?

Does it look like the international flights have stopped anywhere other than Huwan itself?

If those R numbers are correct then we are done and can only hope we are not in the 25% (or fall ill/have an accident whilst hospitals are swamped?)

The Dr in the Huwan hospital vid is pleading for folk not to travel/go out due to the high R number but also warning it is not 'favouring' particular groups that then go critical....equal risk for young/old/sick/well.....

 

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1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

In reply to Lottie -

"Troll"? Nope. Just putting my point of view.

I didn’t say you were a troll, just trolling others by slating their points of view, borderline mocking them.

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It should be obvious, by now, that the globe is facing a real threat from a potentially high-morbidity/-mortality pandemic. And I'm glad to see that Boris is taking the matter seriously...

Above all, let's all hope and pray that the relevant Health Authorities can snuff it out!? 

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1 hour ago, lottiekent said:

I didn’t say you were a troll, just trolling others by slating their points of view, borderline mocking them.

It's called debate, questioning points of views, and then adding one's own povs.

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Tests in the UK on 31 people have come back negative, the government has said.
However,  Officials are trying to trace around 2,000 people who have recently flown to the UK from Hubei province.

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16 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Why would it be "global"? It is in Wuhan. It depends if Wuhan residents travel abroad in huge numbers. From what i've learnt today many Wuhan residents live there to work; public holidays, like now (Chinese NY) they go back to their villages/towns in rural China. 

Granted, some middle class will travel globally, and as in UK there are now 000s of Chinese in Uni towns. 

There will be no global pandemic. 

I think you are whistling in the wind here?

Seeing various R0's for this.  

R3-4 is on a par or slightly above that of Influenza if it's transmission is via airborne droplets.  So the bad news for your theory that this is a localised event that is of low concern is that Influenza is a globally endemic virus and each year, new strains spread round the globe.  That annual spread is despite the use of Flu vaccinations and a level of innate immunity in the population of the world due to previous infections.

This one?  No vaccination available and don't get your hopes of one anytime soon. No innate immunity, zero zilch! Basically this virus has found a host that it can infect with reasonable ease, has no immunity to fight it (the 25% of cases ending up in ICU's is testament to this) and has a habit of traveling around the world and lives in large sociable groups.  The hope of containing a virus like this if it is airborne and is contagious at a very early point after infection is laughably small.

Basically, the horse has probably bolted already and we are playing catch up.

If the reported R0 14 is anywhere near the mark, then all bets are off! This one is off the leash and we will have to weather it. The only good news is that mortality still appears to be a lot lower than SARS.

Edited by swebby
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Mankind's greatest ability is for sticking its head in the sand when things get bad.

I've literally just got over a chest infection, and on monday, had surgery on my foot, which meant I spent a day in hospital. The amount of people coughing and spluttering, including doctors and nurses, it is worrying.

If the incubation period is 2 weeks, we may not have the slightest clue how bad or not so bad, this will be.

And considering the vast majority of our goods come from China too, what if the virus can survive outside the body for a few days, long enough to be carried on 'sneezed upon' goods?

There are so many questions, China needs to be honest with the world at this critical time.

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On 14/01/2020 at 18:45, General Cluster said:

For Cod!'s hake. It's nae laughing matter

Certainly isn’t. Or is it China just having a laugh?

Would seem not. 

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Was at the local school of medicine yesterday where I am a patient partner helping with interviews of new students and assisting with training of new doctors. No one seemed too concerned but that might soon change very quickly.

Thought watch this space. 

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29 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

 

There are so many questions, China needs to be honest with the world at this critical time.

Perhaps they are compared to the SARS outbreak. Massive hospital building a clue if correct.  

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15 minutes ago, Snipper said:

WHO seem slow at updating

What they need to do urgently is put people on ground and access for themselves. Do not trust China.

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13 minutes ago, Snipper said:

WHO seem slow at updating

Possibly, but the last thing the WHO needs to be seen as is knee jerk in it's responses. Crying wolf will blunt the effectiveness of the WHO further down the line.

At New Year there were only about 60 cases, no one was really sure of what they were dealing with other than a coronavirus infection.

Within 12 days WHO are issuing notifications so they are on the ball.

It is still a case of working out if this is now on the loose (think that'll be given) how infectious is it and what dangers are associated with it.  These will really need to be nailed down before the WHO take the reigns on the basis of a pandemic.

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Yes but nothing wrong, when the media seem to shooting off misinformation and ramping to say. “Steady as we go”

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17 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Yes but nothing wrong, when the media seem to shooting off misinformation and ramping to say. “Steady as we go”

Their last update was yesterday so they are not maintaining radio silence.

Daniel* is correct in that boots on the ground is really needed so they know what is what.

"when the media seem to shooting off misinformation and ramping"  Aye, we have the media that we deserve it seems. Unfortunately no amount of briefing by WHO will counteract the stupidity of tabloid press and social media.

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27 minutes ago, swebby said:

Their last update was yesterday so they are not maintaining radio silence.

Daniel* is correct in that boots on the ground is really needed so they know what is what.

"when the media seem to shooting off misinformation and ramping"  Aye, we have the media that we deserve it seems. Unfortunately no amount of briefing by WHO will counteract the stupidity of tabloid press and social media.

Oh.

Not sure where 24th update is. Their disease outbreak news section shows 21st. 

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WWW.WHO.INT

The latest disease outbreaks around the world notified to the World Health Organization.

 

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