Novel Coronavirus – China

[swebby]

12 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Coronavirus app detects if you’ve been exposed

WWW.NEWS-MEDICAL.NET

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The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) can spread rapidly, with at least a thousand new infections and a hundred of deaths each day. The epicenter of the outbreak...

 

From the article

"Now, Chinese officials say they’ve developed a new coronavirus app that tracks people and alerts them if they have been in close contact with the deadly virus."

Rest assured, big brother is watching you..........

[Spikecollie]

3 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Now you're worrying me BB...Wasn't it Quant Researchers that dreamed-up that peculiar (non-Bayesian) branch of statistics that had the entire world bamboozled by long-winded, highfalutin (quasi-physics) economics equations, a little over a decade ago...?

A fine example of the 'move along now, nothing to see here' mentality, if ever there were one?

I know the point that BB is trying to make but quants aren't everything. In my research I always looked to back up quants. with quals. I had a brilliant case once with one of my part-time professional students where she was using a quant.-based staff survey for her dissertation research. I'll abridge it a bit/a lot - staff in the north are less satisfied than in the south and the productivity of the former is 25% higher than the latter - she was obliged to feed back the results to senior management, who immediately seized on the difference between the geographical divisions and implemented enhanced staff supervision and disciplinary threats. I sent her back to do some quals. with both divisions and she uncovered a veritable can of bullying worms in focus groups. Senior management would not let her use or refer to the quals. in her dissertation - nice. With quants., not only do you get unexplained causality but very often you get no explanation at all. Senior managers love quants. though...

Just had "the text" from my GP surgery in the UK!

[swebby]

We can quote mortality figures, base reproduction rates and quarantine measures, but......

You know that something is truly serious if it is capable of diverting the egomaniacal juggernaut that is Formula 1 from it's course.

F1's Chinese GP called off due to coronavirus with Vietnam race at risk | Sport | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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The Chinese GP has been postponed after the outbreak of the coronavirus and the Vietnam GP is also at risk

 

[nick sussex]

Personally I don’t think it’s responsible for the media to use the term “super spreader”.

Its obvious that Mr Walsh had no choice but to come forward fearing the press would leak his name and the pitchfork crowd would descend on his family home .

If people don’t have symptoms then they can’t be held responsible for infecting others at that time.

[fujita5]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Personally I don’t think it’s responsible for the media to use the term “super spreader”.

Its obvious that Mr Walsh had no choice but to come forward fearing the press would leak his name and the pitchfork crowd would descend on his family home .

If people don’t have symptoms then they can’t be held responsible for infecting others at that time.

Exactly.  What next, an exhaustive list of everybody that's been tested or is in isolation?  It's massively irresponsible reporting, but what do we expect from the UK media?

[swebby]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Personally I don’t think it’s responsible for the media to use the term “super spreader”.

Its obvious that Mr Walsh had no choice but to come forward fearing the press would leak his name and the pitchfork crowd would descend on his family home .

If people don’t have symptoms then they can’t be held responsible for infecting others at that time.

Unfortunately, it's good copy. It's an alliteration that scans well and conjures up the graphic scenes of a Hollywood disaster movie.

I pity Mr Walsh, and really do question the wisdom of his identity being made public?

He will be a target for trolls, and, possibly worse. Poor bugger is now "tainted" and may as well wander the streets dressed in rags and ringing a lepers bell.

[Gray-Wolf]

A glimpse at how the impacts across China are now impacting globally;

Businesses struggle to fix supply chains disrupted by virus

APNEWS.COM

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Chinese authorities are struggling to strike a delicate balance between containing a viral outbreak and restarting the world’s...

 

[Snipper]

2 hours ago, swebby said:

Unfortunately, it's good copy. It's an alliteration that scans well and conjures up the graphic scenes of a Hollywood disaster movie.

I pity Mr Walsh, and really do question the wisdom of his identity being made public?

He will be a target for trolls, and, possibly worse. Poor bugger is now "tainted" and may as well wander the streets dressed in rags and ringing a lepers bell.

I’d be more concerned if a terrorist plot was involved. 

[Methuselah]

3 hours ago, fujita5 said:

Exactly.  What next, an exhaustive list of everybody that's been tested or is in isolation?  It's massively irresponsible reporting, but what do we expect from the UK media?

I really have no problem with that --- anyone, irrespective of their relative 'importance', can catch it. I'd rather be safe than sorry...

[Bristawl Si]

7 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Maybe seeking prompt medical attention is some kind of key to a better outcome here?

Maybe us fellas 'battling on' with a ''tis but a scratch!" bravado is our undoing? (as the mortality rates show?)

But as explained before, and as some docs and scientists have said, for many this strain of CV will seem just like a heavy cold with fever or a bout of flu, so why would people rush to their GPs?  Govt and NHS guidelines have told us for years not to go to your GP, but lessen the fever, etc with over the counter medicine like paracetemol

[Gray-Wolf]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

But as explained before, and as some docs and scientists have said, for many this strain of CV will seem just like a heavy cold with fever or a bout of flu, so why would people rush to their GPs?  Govt and NHS guidelines have told us for years not to go to your GP, but lessen the fever, etc with over the counter medicine like paracetemol

Were it known to be circulating in the UK you'd go to your G.P. to make sure you were not irresponsibly spreading a 'new' infection that can cause major issues for certain sectors of our society surely?

It used to infuriate me to see the states some parents would send their son's/daughters into a 'Special School' even though some of our most fragile citizens would be in the same building!

Education is not 'daycare' were you palm off your responsibilities rather than embrace them as a Parent!.

I guess some folk can just not 'think' beyond their own experience?

Before Luke was taken 4 other very poorly kids succumbed to colds/infections spread by other children in his school yet still the 'couldn't give a damn just take him/her off my hands for the 8 hrs!' crew sent poorly children into school without a care!!

Just because your child is severe ADHD (but as strong as an Ox) does not mean you owe no duty of care to other parents whose children are more fragile!

 

In wider society there are all the other 'at risk' people that will have a rougher time of this virus should it appear in our communities and we ALL owe a duty of care to those unfortunates more at risk than ourselves..... or are we all really that selfish?

Imagine it being your child/partner/parent/sibling that some dunning/kruger 'know better' has infected because they just don't care to think?

[Bristawl Si]

6 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Were it known to be circulating in the UK you'd go to your G.P. to make sure you were not irresponsibly spreading a 'new' infection that can cause major issues for certain sectors of our society surely?

It used to infuriate me to see the states some parents would send their son's/daughters into a 'Special School' even though some of our most fragile citizens would be in the same building!

Education is not 'daycare' were you palm off your responsibilities rather than embrace them as a Parent!.

I guess some folk can just not 'think' beyond their own experience?

Before Luke was taken 4 other very poorly kids succumbed to colds/infections spread by other children in his school yet still the 'couldn't give a damn just take him/her off my hands for the 8 hrs!' crew sent poorly children into school without a care!!

Just because your child is severe ADHD (but as strong as an Ox) does not mean you owe no duty of care to other parents whose children are more fragile!

 

In wider society there are all the other 'at risk' people that will have a rougher time of this virus should it appear in our communities and we ALL owe a duty of care to those unfortunates more at risk than ourselves..... or are we all really that selfish?

Imagine it being your child/partner/parent/sibling that some dunning/kruger 'know better' has infected because they just don't care to think?

I'd imagine if it became an epidemic here the advice woukd be to call your GP's surgery, so as 'everyone' doesnt turn up at the surgery coughing and spluttering.

How would you know who infected someone or people local to you?

Edited February 12, 2020 by Bristle boy

[Thundery wintry showers]

5 hours ago, swebby said:

We can quote mortality figures, base reproduction rates and quarantine measures, but......

You know that something is truly serious if it is capable of diverting the egomaniacal juggernaut that is Formula 1 from it's course.

 

And snooker's China Open has been postponed because of it (bearing in mind that snooker is bigger in China nowadays than it is in the UK):

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/snooker/51325726

Edited February 12, 2020 by Thundery wintry showers

[swebby]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

I'd imagine if it became an epidemic here the advice woukd be to call your GP's surgery, so as 'everyone' doesnt turn up at the surgery coughing and spluttering.

How would you know who infected someone or people local to you?

I thought that the general advice from the NHS at the mo was just that? If you think you are showing symptoms, stay at home, do not go to the surgery, phone 111.  Or is that just for travelers that have recently arrived in the UK?

Edited February 12, 2020 by swebby
111! Not 911, must be watching too many US cop shows?

[Summer Sun]

First case confirmed in London

 

[Gray-Wolf]

13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

First case confirmed in London

 

So again I'd advise you folks to watch the BBC4 'IPlayer' of last nights repeat of the experiment the Beeb ran (with the aid of a bespoke phone app) to see how 'Patient Zero' is able to infect many others including those who , in their turn ,become 'Super Spreaders'.....

As I linked to up above our 'experts' best guess is only one in three folk carrying the infection are currently intercepted so we (Surely?) must accept that it IS here among us and spreading rapidly?

If you think 'not' ,then please take the time to explain 'why not'?

EDIT: So no checks in Heathrow (if she was already feeling ill at that point) 

All the way through the terminal and onto whatever transport took her to the place she dialed 111 (unless she was already 'savy' to UK advice and knew what to do so phoned 111 from Heathrow and was whisked away ...under full quarantine conditions.... to the hospital?)

If not how many people have been exposed and now will pootle about for their lives for ( up to ) 20 odd days infecting others.....

Edited February 12, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Spikecollie]

This is getting a little bit silly:

Phone showcase cancelled over coronavirus fears

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The world's largest mobile industry showcase will not go ahead, organisers confirm.

 

I'm not a big tech. fan or even a big business fan but until we can remodel this world of ours, its current cogs need to keep turning.

[Bristawl Si]

All those at the Wirral CV 'centre' are to be released back into the wild tomorrow

[Bristawl Si]

Only one in a sample of 1,099 patients infected with the new coronaviruswas found to have an incubation period of as long as 24 days, a top Chinese scientist has clarified.

The time between initial exposure and development of the first symptoms of the illness is based on the patient's account of the illness.

Dr Zhong Nanshan, a prominent scientist who is leading a government-appointed panel of experts to help control the coronavirus outbreak, said on Tuesday (Feb 11) that caution is needed because there is not enough evidence to regard 24 days as the longest incubation period for the coronavirus, Xinhua reported.

The median incubation period is three days, less than the estimated 5.2 days, according to the research conducted by Dr Zhong and his team, while in rare cases, the incubation period can reach 24 days.

The research is based on a sample of 1,099 coronavirus patients selected from 552 hospitals throughout China. The median age of the patients is 47.

Dr Zhong stressed that only one patient reported a 24-day incubation period.

[Gray-Wolf]

Do we know if there is a difference in 'R0' for those asymptomatic to those with symptoms?

Our Scoutmaster did a pretty good job of spreading whilst 'asymptomatic' ......so what of our Chinese Lady arriving with full blown symptoms?

Edit: B.B , your samples/study, were they the one from mid to late Jan?

Edited February 12, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Methuselah]

2 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

But as explained before, and as some docs and scientists have said, for many this strain of CV will seem just like a heavy cold with fever or a bout of flu, so why would people rush to their GPs?  Govt and NHS guidelines have told us for years not to go to your GP, but lessen the fever, etc with over the counter medicine like paracetemol

Under normal circumstances, that good and sound advice...I am doing it now! But, were the 'New One' going round, what should I do --- leave a note on the front door: IF YOU DON'T HEAR FROM ME WITHIN 5-DAYS, ASK THE HEARSE TO CALL-IN AT MY GP'S SURGERY, WHILST EN-ROUTE TO THE MORGUE???

[Gray-Wolf]

Pete, I'm sure 'they' will begin to accept what we (with health concerns?) appear to already have accepted in time?

Like over in the Enviro thread we will never hear any 'you were right and I was wrong' type declarations from them though so let's not be too heavy on them..... time and experience is a grand old teacher eh?

[Bristawl Si]

9 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Do we know if there is a difference in 'R0' for those asymptomatic to those with symptoms?

Our Scoutmaster did a pretty good job of spreading whilst 'asymptomatic' ......so what of our Chinese Lady arriving with full blown symptoms?

Edit: B.B , your samples/study, were they the one from mid to late Jan?

The article was published today, GUANGDONG (CHINA DAILY/ASIA NEWS NETWORK).

He also said in a reuters report today that The coronavirus outbreak is hitting a peak in China this month and may be over by April, the government's senior medical adviser said on Tuesday, in the latest assessment of an epidemic that has rattled the world.

Zhong Nanshan, an 83-year-old epidemiologist won fame for combating the SARS epidemic in 2003.

Edited February 12, 2020 by Bristle boy

[Methuselah]

Just now, Gray-Wolf said:

Pete, I'm sure 'they' will begin to accept what we (with health concerns?) appear to already have accepted in time?

Like over in the Enviro thread we will never hear any 'you were right and I was wrong' type declarations from them though so let's not be too heavy on them..... time and experience is a grand old teacher eh?

That's true, Ian...But there's one thing that bothers me about my getting an 'asymptomatic' infection...How the flock will I know if I've got it?

[Snipper]

The advice concerning coughing or sneezing into a tissue how practical is it? If you are out and about do you just chuck it on the ground? In a cinema or elsewhere where there are no bins put it in you pocket?  If yes no difference from using an ordinary handkerchief.