Novel Coronavirus – China

[Spikecollie]

27 minutes ago, booferking said:

Singapore for example 47 cases.

9 recovered & discharged  31 stable  7 in ICU care so that makes it 15% with the small amount of cases in Singapore who will be reporting the truth unlike china.

 

Sadly not enough for a statistically significant conclusion...

[booferking]

8 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Numbers too small at mo though. Once you get into the 000s you can safely project future likely severe cases.

Hopefully we dont come to that and it stops at China and the spread globally ends uncharted territory we stand.

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Hopefully we dont come to that and it stops at China and the spread globally ends uncharted territory we stand.

My point is more around robust statistics and whether there's enough numbers to protect accurately, as outlined above, by Spikecollie. My ex-work colleague and friend, a statistician and Quant Researcher, would know a lot more than me on this issue.

 

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

My point is more around robust statistics and whether there's enough numbers to protect accurately, as outlined above, by Spikecollie. My ex-work colleague and friend, a statistician and Quant Researcher, would know a lot more than me on this issue.

 

I understand what you were saying

[Gray-Wolf]

" Robust Statistics "

China changes counting scheme to lower Wuhan ... | Taiwan News

WWW.TAIWANNEWS.COM.TW

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China stops counting confirmed asymptomatic patients in Wuhan virus statistics

 

[swebby]

27 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

If 84,000 came down with covid-19 in a month and the severe illness rate is as high as 5% with a death rate of 1%, that means 4,200 in hospital and 840 dead in that month. We'd probably cope with that over the course of a few months, if that was the peak. A few thousand dead and the NHS pushed to its limits.

It'd be the forced quarantine that would cause the most disruption, if the government chose to go down that route. Anybody with a case in the household would be forced to stay indoors for 14 days or more, meaning hundreds of thousands wouldn't be able to work, including teachers, doctors, train drivers, carers, shop staff...  The impact on day to day life would be huge.

Any more cases than that and we'd really start to struggle.

 

I have serious doubts that we would cope. 

Check the link i posted on critical care bed capacity (it lists monthly usage across England). It's just below 6000 odd beds in total including pediatric and neo natal, but excluding pediatric/neonatal we are now down to 4,100 beds.

Now check the usage figures - 70-80%! So spare capacity of 1,800 at best but at worst we only have 800 spare adult ICU beds at any one time. So, throw a 5% critical care rate of 80,000 cases/month at the NHS and it's adios amigo!

We could cancel all operations, which will free up some beds and leave those awaiting life saving surgery a little vexed but it will not do much good. 

The sooner we have a vaccine the better!

[fujita5]

4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

My point is more around robust statistics and whether there's enough numbers to protect accurately, as outlined above, by Spikecollie. My ex-work colleague and friend, a statistician and Quant Researcher, would know a lot more than me on this issue.

 

I work in a statistical role. I don't trust ANY of the numbers coming out of China. The pictures we're seeing simply don't match the numbers they're telling us. Even right at the start they were saying there were a few dead and just hundreds infected, yet videos were circulating of body bags lined up in hospital corridors and patients collapsed on the floor.

We won't have a real handle on the danger until there's a sizeable outbreak in another country.

[nick sussex]

Does anyone believe anything coming from the Chinese authorities.

Any government that drags a doctor to the police who is then forced to retract statements made warning of his concerns about the virus deserves nothing but derision and suspicion .

 

[swebby]

4 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

I work in a statistical role. I don't trust ANY of the numbers coming out of China. The pictures we're seeing simply don't match the numbers they're telling us. Even right at the start they were saying there were a few dead and just hundreds infected, yet videos were circulating of body bags lined up in hospital corridors and patients collapsed on the floor.

We won't have a real handle on the danger until there's a sizeable outbreak in another country.

Sadly, i think you may well be correct on that.

[swebby]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Thanks for the info swebby!

The chief med officer in Wuhan said (at the back end of last week?) that those recovered from COVID-19 only had immunity for a 'short while' before they could become infected again? I do not know if this is due to its 'novel' status and so is rapidly evolving to better 'fit' its new hosts?

I suspect that this is a case of something having been lost in translation, or in the confusion. 

Maybe the medical officer was talking about hospital acquired secondary infections from other pathogens. Something that would be probable in hospitals that have been swamped with viral pneumonia.  I've seen the pictures of patients lying in corridors, must be an ideal environment for secondary infections, especially opportunistic bacterial ones.

Alternatively, they may have been referring to the 18 day period, at which point patients with mild'ish symptoms either get better or fall off a cliff so to speak.

Being infected twice within a month by the same strain does not make any real sense. If however there are two very different strains......? But at such an early stage in an epidemic this must surely be improbable to the point of being impossible.

[Gray-Wolf]

Folk bandy around stats for our capacity to cope in ICU's/high Dependency units do not seem to accept that the staff are in danger of contracting the virus no matter the protections they wear?(as the latest numbers from Wuhan suggest alongside the numbers of army medics hastily draughted in to the city?)

Even 'if' a mild infection that is the 'carer' out of the game for 2 weeks minimum ....

But officials are now putting 24 days on max incubation and would we wish to send carers back into wards of vulnerable folk unless absolutely sure they are no longer spreading?

We really had better hope that we DO have it contained and that we are not playing hosts to multiple 'asymptomatic spreaders' as if we do those they have infected are also spreading now increasing that initial spread pattern every day they remain at large?

We really had better also hope that we DO know we can trust how deadly the Chinese are telling us COVID-19 is (but then I've not seen any vids of bodies being taken from 'welded shut' buildings.... nor food deliveries to such places either come to think of it? but then plenty of 'covert' vids from inside China of bodies of all ages on streets/in shops/in hospitals hinting that death comes quickly to folk who either do not feel ill enough to be indoors and not out shopping or have been refused aid?.....and of course the new vids of huge numbers of Crows out in the night time obviously on the hunt for something they have smelled inside locked down, welded shut cities.....

But 'Yes' , I'm sure all is as we are being told........ as sure as I am of Johnson's honesty.....

[Ryukai]

The video of the kids isn't related to coronavirus/Corvid-19, did some twitterdigging followed it back to it's source.

 

Apparently he was trying to highlight the fact that they are running out of bodybags and are having to put multiple bodies into them.

Edited February 11, 2020 by Ryukai

[Gray-Wolf]

Coronavirus: A&E worker one of eight Brits diagnosed with deadly bug - Mirror Online

WWW.MIRROR.CO.UK

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The A&E staff member with coronavirus works at Worthing Hospital in West Sussex, only around 12 miles from Brighton, the Department of Health confirmed

EDIT: Oh look what's on BBC4 right now......

 

EDIT:EDIT: Then on BBC2 , joy of joys, a docudrama on the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that killed more than WWI & WWII combined......

Edited February 11, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

Then maybe folk shouldn't watch the BBC4 prog....... it's worse than anything we spoken about in this thread by far!

[Gray-Wolf]

Coronavirus app detects if you’ve been exposed

WWW.NEWS-MEDICAL.NET

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The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) can spread rapidly, with at least a thousand new infections and a hundred of deaths each day. The epicenter of the outbreak...

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Coronavirus can live on common surfaces for nine days - how to kill it

WWW.NEWS-MEDICAL.NET

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When a new pathogen wreaks havoc on the planet, scientists from across the globe race to understand how it behaves and spreads. Now, scientists have found that...

Now wash your hands!!!

[Daniel*]

Seriously outrageous

 

[DAVID SNOW]

3 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Hi David!

I did not know that Thailand had a heavy enough 'load' of infected cases that their penal system is now carrying such ( should they prove to be positive when we get the test results tomorrow?)

What is Thailand's main economic income source b.t.w?

No idea about their economic income, but they may have found a novel export!  OT perhaps, but why would the prisoner end up here, further more without any health checks, another odd one.

[Gael_Force]

2 hours ago, swebby said:

I have serious doubts that we would cope. 

Check the link i posted on critical care bed capacity (it lists monthly usage across England). It's just below 6000 odd beds in total including pediatric and neo natal, but excluding pediatric/neonatal we are now down to 4,100 beds.

Now check the usage figures - 70-80%! So spare capacity of 1,800 at best but at worst we only have 800 spare adult ICU beds at any one time. So, throw a 5% critical care rate of 80,000 cases/month at the NHS and it's adios amigo!

We could cancel all operations, which will free up some beds and leave those awaiting life saving surgery a little vexed but it will not do much good. 

The sooner we have a vaccine the better!

Agreed. Factor in the quarantine aspect of the facilities in use, the length of stay reported in ICU (3-4 weeks) and the probability staffing numbers will be hit by infections also.

[Gael_Force]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Seriously outrageous

 

It doesn't make sense as it will unrealistically raise the case fatality numbers.

[Gray-Wolf]

Even quarantine officers eh?

There is a growing part of me that is thinking we are being 'duped' by the powers that be 'for our own good'

Watching the Beeb 2 offering on 'Spanish Flu' and the decisions in 'Whitehall' to not inform/help the proles due to the impacts on the war effort makes me wonder how different things are today?

If we are just awaiting infections to rise (as all the powers that be appear to be telling us?) then the silence of them toward the covert vids coming out of China (at the risks we know such folk take to release the VPN vids?) is puzzling?

Are we to believe it is just healthcare/lesser pollution that better places the developed world from the impacts we appear to be seeing across Mainland China?

Time will reveal all I guess?

EDIT: and what new hell is this?

Scientists discover mysterious virus with no recognisable genes

WWW.INDEPENDENT.CO.UK

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Viruses are some of the world’s smallest life-forms – and the jury is still out as to whether they actually are life-forms at all, as they cannot live or reproduce outside...

 

Edited February 12, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Daniel*]

 

 

High profile case... shows how you can be all suited and booted take all precautionary measures, and still get infected. 

[Gray-Wolf]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

High profile case... shows how you can be all suited and booted take all precautionary measures, and still get infected. 

This is why I have to have a little sigh when folk set out numbers of ICU/High Dep ward numbers and staffing for them without appearing to think it all the way through?

It's like they get to the answer they like and stop thinking?

I do think they exist in a land of rainbows and unicorns......

[Gray-Wolf]

25 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

It doesn't make sense as it will unrealistically raise the case fatality numbers.

What if the rest of the World's leaders are imploring them to make it less scary as they themselves prepare their nations for its arrival?

Would it make sense not to alarm your public ahead of times? (in their heads?)

Edited February 12, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

Anyone watching the BBC4's repeat of their 2018 'experiment' on how fast an uncontained 'novel' virus spreads in society will now be better informed as to where we are if we have 'spreaders' at loose among us (asymptomatic carriers?)....

If they followed that with the docudrama on the 'spanish flu' they will know where that leads us (even if only 33%, and not the 60% being toted, catch the virus?)

Take a look , they're both on IPlayer......

Don't die of ignorance

Now wash your hands.....