Novel Coronavirus – China

[Summer Sun]

Team principals meeting now to discuss the opening F1 race on Sunday 8 people were tested 7 x negative 1 x positive

[Summer Sun]

 

[kold weather]

Just now, Bristle boy said:

If they are TRULY following the science, via their advisory panel of.....erm.....scientists, then that is why the UK is doing what it's doing.

Ok but again, every country has experts, and clearly a vast majority is NOT following what our experts think, so why is that?

Because clearly there is a divide, to bring in a weather analogy, we are very much one of those outlier you see in FI, whilst many of the others are looking vastly differemt. Which one would you believe in? Thats the question.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

34 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Spain have reported 2,968 new cases. 84 new deaths were announed earlier.

They haven't reported those amount of cases today, those are the total cases.. Its gone up 5 or 600 today. 

[cheeky_monkey]

interestingly the rate of spread here in Canada is extremely slow compared to the rest of the world..only 117 cases countrywide having started at the same base numbers as say Italy 2/3 weeks ago

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Ok but again, every country has experts, and clearly a vast majority is NOT following what our experts think, so why is that?

Because clearly there is a divide, to bring in a weather analogy, we are very much one of those outlier you see in FI, whilst many of the others are looking vastly differemt. Which one would you believe in? Thats the question.

As i've said in earlier posts last week, i have faith in the scientific advisers here. And as i also said, only time will tell.

One has to remember that the government, in conj with scientific advisers, will already have done scenario planning; that will include a number of outcomes, and, projected number of deaths, based on different scenarios. Work like that is also movable and flexible. Reality i'm afraid.

[kold weather]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

They haven't reported those amount of cases today, those are the total cases.. Its gone up 5 or 600 today. 

Remember though, they report several times a day, so likely will be above 1,000 new cases by the end of the day based on the trend so far this morning.

[matty40s]

Scotland..."inappropriate to carry on as we are"....

 

That's the sales of Buckfast down the Swanee then...

[kold weather]

Just now, Bristle boy said:

As i've said in earlier posts last week, i have faith in the scientific advisers here. And as i also said, only time will tell.

One has to remember that the government, in conj with scientific advisers, will already have done scenario planning; that will include a number of outcomes, and, projected number of deaths, based on different scenarios. Work like that is also movable and flexible. Reality i'm afraid.

Yes, there is also a case study somewhere out there for a mythical pandemic that is actually quite similar to this one form 2011 which outlines some of the steps that could be done. So its obviously been thought about and modeled.

The fear is we stick so tightly to our one model, that if it proves not to be correct there will be a heck of a backtrack that will need to be seen and probably a vastly worse situation in our NHS. I hope to see us at least cancel large gatherings. Schools IMO should stay open a little longer yet. However I think people want to know exactly how this is going to pan out, as there has been quite a dramatic shift in Europe in the situation over the last 48hrs.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Remember though, they report several times a day, so likely will be above 1,000 new cases by the end of the day based on the trend so far this morning.

Agreed, just stating those are the current figures, and not the jump so far.. But like you say, it could be over a 1000 by days end. Hopefully our increase will be in line with previous days, but I'm very concerned what the next 5-7 days will bring with literally 10 fold test increases. 

Edited March 12, 2020 by Mattwolves

[Snipper]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yes, there is also a case study somewhere out there for a mythical pandemic that is actually quite similar to this one form 2011 which outlines some of the steps that could be done. So its obviously been thought about and modeled.

The fear is we stick so tightly to our one model, that if it proves not to be correct there will be a heck of a backtrack that will need to be seen and probably a vastly worse situation in our NHS. I hope to see us at least cancel large gatherings. Schools IMO should stay open a little longer yet. However I think people want to know exactly how this is going to pan out, as there has been quite a dramatic shift in Europe in the situation over the last 48hrs.

We of course have a lot of experience concerning the accuracy of models 

[Rush2019]

On 14/01/2020 at 18:10, Snipper said:

Not quite sure where to plonk this one. 

WHO | Novel Coronavirus – China

WWW.WHO.INT

 

Potentially worrying?

Snippers very first post on this thread.  This was ONLY 58 days ago. Unbelievable but true. 

[Summer Sun]

 

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Snipper said:

We of course have a lot of experience concerning the accuracy of models 

I suppose thats why this is ringing alarm bells in my head, because we have some idea of how ensemble modelling works, and when you have an outlier or two, you wonder why. Its not impossible of course that they have spotted the correct conclusion to make, but it worries me.

Anyway, yesterday we had more deaths caused by Covid 19 than meningitis worldwide, but still a long way down the deadliest diseases. (EG WHO estimates 548 die a day from Norovirus, and TB/Hep B kills 3-4000 a day, or about 10x where we are at now. I hope we dont get there though.)

Edited March 12, 2020 by kold weather

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Sounds like something has been agreed at COBRA, just what I wonder?

Unless Scotland will do its own thing, but that really would be unlikely!

[The4Seasons]

US stock markets crash again triggering trading freeze for 15 mins. Dow over 1696 points lower. FTSE 100 off nearly 9%. This will endanger jobs if these falls continue. 

[Snipper]

3 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

Snippers very first post on this thread.  This was ONLY 58 days ago. Unbelievable but true. 

Thought the potential was scary then but was not likely to evolve into the current situation.

[Snowy L]

Just now, The4Seasons said:

US stock markets crash again triggering trading freeze for 15 mins. Dow over 1696 points lower. FTSE 100 off nearly 9%. This will endanger jobs if these falls continue. 

Traders are some of the biggest overreacters in the world. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy with these people. Yes it's bad, yes it's worse than flu, yes it will hurt our economies, but wiping out a third of the Dow over this panic is a disgrace.

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

Traders are some of the biggest overreacters in the world. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy with these people. Yes it's bad, yes it's worse than flu, yes it will hurt our economies, but wiping out a third of the Dow over this panic is a disgrace.

Its not just the virus though Snowy    The oil war isnt helping 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

Traders are some of the biggest overreacters in the world. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy with these people. Yes it's bad, yes it's worse than flu, yes it will hurt our economies, but wiping out a third of the Dow over this panic is a disgrace.

All  gains made since mid 2017 have been wiped out in the space of about 2 weeks!

However I do remember someone saying recently that the stocks are well overdue for a bear market, and its been one of the longest bull markets we've ever seen rising from the ashes of the crash of 07-08. So it maybe partly because it is coming from an unsustainable position to start with.

[The4Seasons]

Crazy thing is as soon as there is a vaccine the markets will fly back up. Panic is driving everyone mad atm. Anxiety is the driver behind everything right now from the panic buying in supermarkets to selling on the stock markets. 

[nick sussex]

If all European countries enforce restrictions then both spread within those falls and then that will by extension mean less cross border spread occurs .

Its pointless for countries to go into denial and think they’re some special case.

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Traders are some of the biggest overreacters in the world. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy with these people. Yes it's bad, yes it's worse than flu, yes it will hurt our economies, but wiping out a third of the Dow over this panic is a disgrace.

The markets are simply responding to the fact that the global economy is going to be shutting down over the next month or so as the virus plays out. The restrictions on travel/trade are bound to have an impact.

[Ryukai]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

So basically the flu, but from a coronavirus rather than a flu strain. 

My theory, please don't take too seriously. I think this thing confuses immune systems, ie it looks like a cold, but it acts like something else. So immune systems in the young, that are still learning, just treat it the same as any other new bug, and learn how to fight it, no big problems. The older you get the more your immune system is trained to spot specific types of illness and automatically reacts as it always has done. This virus has thrown a curve ball, and the immune system gets surprised and doesn't know what to do. 

I've had this weird idea circulating around in my head for a while now that the whole cytokine storm response thing is actually an evolutionary adaption to the survival of a species as a whole over the survival of the individual.

For instance, a species that develops a response where the immune system will self destruct and kill off an individual if it comes across an especially virulent virus that it can't get rid of, therefore sparing the species as a whole from said virus, would have a greater chance of survival as a species than one that never did.

I know I've read a few tweets and linked posts on this forums that have come from doctors that basically say that people are 'fine' for the most part, and then it's as if a switch has been flipped and the person suddenly worsens and dies within a few hours...

Just seams very strange to me, but then again I'm not a doctor so /shrug  

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

The markets are simply responding to the fact that the global economy is going to be shutting down over the next month or so as the virus plays out. The restrictions on travel/trade are bound to have an impact.

Yes, the oil war itself might have led to quite large deflationary pressures on its own.

I think its an understanding that at least Europe (given weak growth in Q4 anyway, that seems 100% odds on now) and possibly the US will be going into at least a technical recession soon.