Novel Coronavirus – China

[Gray-Wolf]

I can see a nation as big as the U.S., placed in 'splendid Isolation', might see its own clade of the virus emerge as dominant?

Whether that's good or bad remains to be seen but the more 'separate hotspot versions' of the virus the tricksier things get esp. with regard to 'catching it again' if 'drift' is so wide?

[Weather-history]

14 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

It is obviously a swipe at the EU schengan system, they can't include Ireland though, as that will send the Irish American community off. 

Doesn't the Irish PM visit the White House every year on St Patrick's Day? Not sure the Irish PM should be leaving the country at a time like this anyway..

Should any future global conferences like the G20 be scrapped for the time being ? 

Edited March 12, 2020 by Weather-history

[swebby]

11 hours ago, Sky Full said:

I seem to be spending far too much time trying to figure out what will be the best chance of stopping this virus in it's tracks....

1:  Vaccine?  No - that's a year to 18 months away from being realistically available in large enough quantities.

2:  Prevention of transmission by quarantine?  No - that would only work if everyone in the world was made to stay at home for at least four weeks with no contact with anyone else - because you would have to be sure that everyone who has already caught it has fully recovered before you let everyone else out again.  We will see if Italy manages to make a success of their own 'lockdown' but I suspect it's too late for the rest of the world.  But surely a quarantine period of this magnitude would be ruinous to the world economy anyway?

3:  Prevention of transmission by creating a 'herd immunity' - Yes!  This would work after enough people have contracted the virus and recovered with full immunity.  As the remaining pool of uninfected people becomes more and more diluted the virus will struggle to reinfect new victims.  Those few still actively carrying the virus will then recover without passing it on and after that, no more virus? 

If this is true, then perversely our best policy is to try and infect as many low-risk people as possible, and as fast as possible, so that they recover on their own, become immune, and then the virus has nowhere to go.  In this case gatherings like Cheltenham races are just what is called for so the virus can be passed around as many people as possible!  The elderly, infirm and sufferers from chronic illnesses will have to be isolated as much as possible in the meantime to keep the number of fatalities to the minimum, but these are the very people who will find it easiest to keep their distance from other people until the danger of infection has passed.

Not sure if there is any scientific basis to this theory and it's likely there is a flaw in the argument somewhere that I'm not seeing.   I'm sure there are people on here who will correct me if I have completely misunderstood the way a virus behaves?

Catching up so not sure if anyone has responded to this?

If you examine how the European countries, including the UK, are responding to this, then this is pretty much the route that we have ended up following*.  I believe it was Prof Witty that actually stated that in the absence of a vaccine, the best means of bringing an epidemic under control would be to have as many recovered people as possible back and active in the community.  Containment of something this infectious with an immunologically naive population is never likely to work. Controlling the epidemic, or delay as the government describe it, is really the only option.

This is foil hat speculation on my part. Please do not take it too seriously, but what we are potentially witnessing is a "controlled burn" and to have a controlled burn you need to set fires to start with.  This may seem callous but the alternative may be a whole lot worse. Many on here are asking why no restrictions already? Perhaps we need to consider what happens if you bring restrictions in too early? 1) If you introduce measure too early, at a stage when a large proportion of people  think it is just a bad cold, then you get push back and lose control. The population need to be suitably alarmed for control measures. 2) If you introduce measure and they are too successful at this time of year, because only a few hundred are initially infected, you have simply backed the problem up to a worse time of year - October.  If we mange to keep cases to just a few thousand and it then dies down over summer, you are left with naive population come October and 5-6 months of the influenza season ahead of you, that is not a good combination.

If you look at the situation, allowing sufficient infection and then controlling spread as we go through spring into summer may be the best short term option. Control would be to allow infection, especially in the young that do not seem to present symptoms, that means the virus will then struggle to become an epidemic when measures are relaxed. It's spread next winter would then be more in keeping with how a cold/flu is normally spread and the NHS will then hopefully be able to cope, especially if treatments become available.

*Italy are an exception, think they have been totally blindsided and are the cautionary tale of what happens when this burns out of control.

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Well, I'm self isolated.

Woke up this morning with sore throat, blocked nose and slight headache.

Taking no chances going to work.

My bets wishes to you matey , you are doing the right thing.

[Daniel*]

 

defeats purpose entirely this is why unlike China society is not ready.

[Sky Full]

I have had an email discussion with a highly qualified bacteriologist friend of mine (not a virologist but close enough for me!) and she says that all governments have had to face an impossible decision when forming their policy to combat this virus.  Reducing public contact by closing ports, airports etc and closing public events, schools and shops etc  is the basis of a 'contain' and 'delay' strategy but if carried out too soon or for too long it would cause enormous economic damage.  On the other hand, not doing so increases the rapid spread of the virus which then places unbearable strain on the NHS and their already over-stretched staff.  Ultimately a point will be reached when a huge number of people are suffering at the same time and unable to work so there will be difficult times ahead for industry and commerce whatever the government does.  She also explained a tendency for many viruses to gradually become less lethal as they spread (which is a self-preservation technique) so that the current 2-3% mortality rate may fall as more and more people are infected.  Let's hope that's true and that this virus doesn't mutate into something even more virulent....        

[Snipper]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The issue with the Trump ban from a UK standpoint is the detail bans anyone whose been in the Schengen zone within the last 14 days .

Unless the U.K. starts stamping all passports who enter from that zone then the UK is going to become a transit point for those who can’t fly from Schengen but will then go through London .

So it might be good for UK airlines who fly transatlantic but how many confirmed cases will now be forced to go through London and other airports who connect to the USA.

Don’t need to have a stamped passport as everything is done electronically

[Tilly]

36 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I will be attending the Rangers vs Bayer Leverkusen game tonight. (Forty nine/fifty thousand fans in attendance)

One/Two thousand German fans have flew over to attend plus roughly forty seven thousand Rangers fans! Looking forward to it and mingling with the Germans in Merchant Square, Glasgow city centre beforehand. 

I think being young, fit and healthy makes me not take all this too seriously - only ever had flu once and numerous colds. (Never broke anything or ever suffered any physical/mental illness)

The other thing is the very low number of cases in Scotland currently - not seeing much panic from family/friends/workplace ect ect.

Totally understand though that some people on this thread suffer from physical/mental illness and other such things - can see why the reaction is different from person to person and of course the country/region we live in. 

I would have absolutely no issue with self isolating if it came to that of course - currently though I am not too concerned with regards to the current number of cases up here. 

A question for you all - Italy has the oldest population in Europe...23% of residents are 65 or older. Many of the deaths in Italy have been people with underlying health issues aged 80 or older. Does this mean we should be less surprised that Italy has the highest number of cases in Europe? Do you think we will actually reach the same levels of cases/fatalities that Italy have/will have? 

I totally agree with our Governments stance currently - if it was to get worse then of course lockdowns should be brought in...but as of now? I don’t think so.

Hope you all stay safe and well - good read in this thread with a good mix of characters.

This is my other half’s thinking. I posted about the LC concert tomorrow, he’s still toying with the idea to go, I don’t want to go and I’m not. I’m not fussed about missing out, I’m not even a fan and was only going for a break from the mad house. 

Something for you to think about though, you’re not concerned about the number of cases, but surely you must be aware that there are possibly thousands of people walking around now that have Coronavirus but don’t know it. Being in a crowd of that size I think you’re almost guaranteed to be sharing that space with one of those people. If you get it, at what point do you self isolate? Latest studies show you’re most infectious before you show symptoms. You may be one of those who don’t even show symptoms. You could walk around passing it to people, the elderly and already sick. What if they die? You probably wouldn’t be aware of it. The question is, Would you be able to live with the fact your ‘Not bothered because I’m young and all that’ attitude caused somebody else to die? Horrible as it sounds, that’s the reality. 

[nick sussex]

The authorities in Madrid are considering locking down the city. Perhaps they are waiting for the 3000 + Athletico Madrid fans to return from Liverpool before doing so ! 

 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Snipper said:

Don’t need to have a stamped passport as everything is done electronically

What’s the information sharing though . Are the UK and USA linked in that respect for air travel .

[Snipper]

Heard from the secure establishment where my mother is held.  Head warden says no visiting until further notice.  Too be honest a get out of jail card for me.  My duty visits are so upsetting. 

[weirpig]

Just now, nick sussex said:

The authorities in Madrid are considering locking down the city. Perhaps they are waiting for the 3000 + Athletico Madrid fans to return from Liverpool before doing so ! 

 

Lol  when you say it out loud  it still does not make any sense   

[Snipper]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

What’s the information sharing though . Are the UK and USA linked in that respect for air travel .

If needs be probably yes.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Bristawl Si]

6 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Heard from the secure establishment where my mother is held.  Head warden says no visiting until further notice.  Too be honest a get out of jail card for me.  My duty visits are so upsetting. 

I felt like that some weeks when my parents were both in the nursing home. On a number of occasions there were sickness bugs, norovirus, etc going around the home. Those weeks became a valid reason not to visit, and, honestly, a relief. Stay well, folks.

Edited March 12, 2020 by Bristle boy

[Snipper]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

I felt like that some weeks when my parents were both in the nursing home. On a number of occasions there were sickness bugs, norovirus, etc going around the home. Those weeks became a valid reason not to visit.

Been visiting for about 4 years.  Falls totally on my shoulders as my brother decided to die. Would help if she knew who the hell I was.  I can console myself that it only costs £1,000 a week.

[Summer Sun]

 

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Snipper said:

Been visiting for about 4 years.  Falls totally on my shoulders as my brother decided to die. Would help if she knew who the hell I was.  I can console myself that it only costs £1,000 a week.

Shouldnt laugh   but that was funnily poignant.

[Snipper]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

 

At least the weather looks nice for camping

[northwestsnow]

Field hospitals..

Starting to sound like something from a war movie now.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Field hospitals..

Starting to sound like something from a war movie now.

But aren’t most hospitals in fields?  

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Snipper said:

At least the weather looks nice for camping

That was close to the edge ! But did make me laugh . We certainly need some humour to get through all the horrible news.

[Summer Sun]

Breaking: A paramedic for the east of England ambulance service has tested positive for Coronavirus

[saint]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Breaking: A paramedic for the east of England ambulance service has tested positive for Coronavirus

Confirmed as one of the Hertfordshire cases. 

Edited March 12, 2020 by saint

[pip22]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Breaking: A paramedic for the east of England ambulance service has tested positive for Coronavirus

Not a good sign.