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Novel Coronavirus – China


Snipper

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

A rise but nothing *too* drastic still, pretty much in line with the curve we have been on in the last 3-5 days or so with a slow gentle rise. Still that is the highest daily rise yet. When I saw the Netherlands have a 120+ rise I did think we may see something similar, so a rise of about 75 is not a disaster.

Given how much it has spread throughout Europe, As Paul said those 100s rises are not far away now though.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Storms, Snow Thunder, Supercells, all weather extremes
  • Location: Darlington 63 m or 206ft above sea level

So a rise of 83 not good it will be over 100 tomorrow 

Edited by Boro Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

The NHS in England is set to "ramp up" facilities nationwide so 10,000 tests can be done each day.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UEFA have rejected Wolves request to postpone tomorrow's match it will instead be played behind closed doors

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

The NHS in England is set to "ramp up" facilities nationwide so 10,000 tests can be done each day.

Yep  so really x4  for a accurate figure??

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Posted
  • Location: North Wessex Downs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: North Wessex Downs
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UEFA have rejected Wolves request to postpone tomorrow's match it will instead be played behind closed doors

Folks can watch the game on telly at least.  I was thinking it would be cool if there was a way they could mic up the TV viewers then broadcast the noise into the stadium!

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

So as a rough figure  the amount of people tested  to those who come positive is around 7%   If we start testing 10000 people per day    = scary numbers 

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
8 minutes ago, emax said:

They dont stop entirely, but they are greatly reduced. Warmer temps, increased UV, plus the points you make, add up to a marked reduction in spreading

It's an interesting topic. I happened across this paper (link below) which discusses the impact of UV on the number of deaths from various influenzas. From the conclusion, "It seems likely that seasonal variations in the incidence and death rates of both pandemic and non-pandemic influenza are related to seasonal variations in vitamin D status.". Hopefully Covid-19 follows this trend, although there are definitely question marks over this because Iran is currently providing a strong counter-example. Either that or the true number of cases vastly exceeds the number of reported cases.

1-s2.0-S1201971210X00170-cov150h.gif
WWW.SCIENCEDIRECT.COM

Seasonal variations in ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation cause seasonal variations in vitamin D status. This may influence immune responses and play a rol…

 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

So as a rough figure  the amount of people tested  to those who come positive is around 7%   If we start testing 10000 people per day    = scary numbers 

That is my thought, are we in a situation where reported cases are artificially low due to the low number of tests being carried out. Will this now quickly correct towards the numbers seen across the channel?

The problem if this happens is quite simple, we would hit French/German levels but still be at a lower level of clamping down on the spread. The prognosis would not look good.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
10 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

So a rise of 83 not good it will be over 100 tomorrow 

The numbers will be much higher across the UK with testing limited to just over 1000 at present we're not seeing truer figures I suspect.

They're expecting the peak to happen during the easter holidays which is 4-week away I think.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Testing being ramped up...

The numbers will start ramping up tomorrow onwards...

 

Yes up from the 1500 limit we currently have, 10,000 should be a pretty good base to have a good idea of whether or not things are starting to ramp up, I fear its kind of inevitable that we will see a large increase either tomorrow, or Friday.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Testing being ramped up...

The numbers will start ramping up tomorrow onwards...

 

The increase in tests is still likely to take a few days to come through but should appear after the Cheltenham Festival has finished !

Mind my cynicism but the NHS could have increased testing much earlier !

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

This is a 'novel' virus to Humanity, H1N1 in 1918 was a 'Novel' Virus to the Human population.

When we look at data we are always 'gazing back into the past history of Covid-19' never a 'snapshot' of right now?

It would be like declaring, in October 1918, That the 'Spanish Flu' was only taking the old and infirm?

The statement was true in Aug 1918 but there's a lot changes with 'novel' virii settling in to a new host eh?

Looking at Italy ,and the CFR there?, I have to wonder if maybe Wuhan 2019 has met up with Iran 2020 and they did the old 'Recombination Shuffle'

History 'loves to repeat itself ' and, we all know just what happened to H1N1 (with its 'Drift' whilst on its 'Jollies' to Europe over spring/summer 1918?) when it then was forcibly returned back to the U.S. camps that gave birth to it it and so ran into the original Clade of H1N1, Recombined with it ,and the rest , as they say , is 'History'.....

With at least 4 'drifted' versions of Covid-2019 in circulation (Wuhan,S.Korean,Iranian, N.Italian) when do two 'distinct Flavours' meet up in a host and 'recombine'? 

The changes from 'recombination' can be much greater than the slow ,evolutionary, drift of the virus as it moves from host to host?

 

EDIT: The U.S. Presidents 'take' on Covid-19;

image.thumb.png.35453f8f2c58e4b514ff4344f401caa8.png

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

We will be playing Ireland in few weeks time in play off for Europeans under closed doors here in Slovakia, our national ice hockey league has cancelled the play off too and season is officially over. Interesting facts are that our best players Skriniar and Lobotka are playing in Italy and may not be able to travel to Irish game, now M.Dubravka has knee problems and wont be available to play either. Just some sporting facts  We have 10 positive cases so far for the virus as of today. But I suspect much more as over 30 000 women work as home carers for elderly in Austria,Germany and North of Italy and the spend 3 weeks home and 3 weeks over there. i suspect primary and secondary schools will all be closed soon for at least 2 weeks.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The French government seem to be less than transparent over how many are being tested .

All they say is it’s a minimum of 1500 tests per day . 

Given the current increase in confirmed cases it had better be a lot more than that otherwise it’s looking pretty awful .

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Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
16 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UEFA have rejected Wolves request to postpone tomorrow's match it will instead be played behind closed doors

I believe Spurs’ next few games will be played behind closed doors for the protection of their own supporters.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

I suggest anyone dismissing the gravity of this situation takes a read of Jason vanschoors account of life at a hospital in Italy.

It is terrifying , they are running at 200% capacity in the hospital he is working, its like an Apocalypse out there, they do not have the ventilators to keep people alive!!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Cases by region in England

  • East of England | 32 (+3)
  • London | 104 (+13)
  • Midlands | 42 (+6)
  • North East and Yorkshire | 32 (+8)
  • North West | 43 (+6)
  • South East | 60 (+9)
  • South West | 44 (+3)

To be determined | 30 (+15)

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I suggest anyone dismissing the gravity of this situation takes a read of Jason vanschoors account of life at a hospital in Italy.

It is terrifying , they are running at 200% capacity in the hospital he is working, its like an Apocalypse out there, they do not have the ventilators to keep people alive!!

Was reading that China are sending help to Italy now they're on top of things. Amongst the stuff they're sending is 1000 ventilators.

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Cases by region in England

  • East of England | 32 (+3)
  • London | 104 (+13)
  • Midlands | 42 (+6)
  • North East and Yorkshire | 32 (+8)
  • North West | 43 (+6)
  • South East | 60 (+9)
  • South West | 44 (+3)

To be determined | 30 (+15)

Wasn't there a rise of 30 in London yesterday? I know testing is limited but still no sign of a big rise in a specific region so no cluster emerged yet.

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