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Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
    7 hours ago, kold weather said:

    Well this is quite a sobering post from twitter:

    image.thumb.png.944e3a6b9cb9a98a1c4e7d8596488bcd.png

    All European countries as of yesterday were right on the same curve as Italy. Obviously today Spain has lurched up faster than the rest but thats a scary match and you can probably see where we are on a similar curve as well

    Summer Sun, this may give a clue...

    I’d like to see what the uk’s case trend is compared to this...might see if I can work it out 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms and anything extreme.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    We hear a lot about what action China has taken to reduce the rate of infections. What action did South Korea take to reduce infection rates?

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    Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL

    Morning Knocker,

     

    I don’t see any reason why it should be removed, it is perfectly valid in the conversation.  I think it is  far more complex than described.  Elderly people at home need vastly more auxiliary nursing care than people think.  I am not. Carer, but I do look after the household needs of very elderly people.  Where I have seen care packages put in place (one for my mother who had Alzheimer’s in 2011), they are not really adequate, more of a “have you eaten/had a cup of tea”.  My mother refused to have the carers in her house, and legally that was her right. I used trek across from Wales to Derbyshire on a regular basis to clean the house, feed her up, sort out her medical needs and hygiene needs.  If we had lived closer she may  have been able to stay longer at home, but in the end, she refused access to anyone, so we had to transfer her to a care home for her own well-being.  The clients I have in the valley are housebound through age or infirmity.  One is self sufficient In she is internet savvy and orders her groceries online for delivery, orders clothes from companies on line and is a member of a thriving international online art community.  She hires me to clean the house and, I think, gossip.  One couple I shop for, take to hospital dental appointments, walk the dog, clean the house, etc... their offspring in Spain and USA respectively.  They too refuse care package, but are happy for me to run around....  in loco filia so to speak.

    Edited by snefnug
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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

    New Study Out:

    Results:

    There were 181 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure and symptom onset windows to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine.

    Conclusion:

    This work provides additional evidence for a median incubation period for COVID-19 of approximately 5 days, similar to SARS. Our results support current proposals for the length of quarantine or active monitoring of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2, although longer monitoring periods might be justified in extreme cases.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    8 hours ago, Stabilo19 said:

    It'd be incredible if the appalling 2019/20 winter has really saved us from a Italy-style virus outbreak!

    Then again, it might be down to the rather more prosaic observation that, unlike the vast majority of affected countries, we live on an island?:oldgood:

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Pretty awful situation in Cyprus where the head of the heart surgical ward in Nicosia tested positive for the virus , he’d been back at work for 4 days and had recently returned from the UK on the 3rd March where he contracted the virus .

    The largest hospital on the island is now effectively shut .

    The only other case on the Island so far had travelled from northern Italy. They’ve been in self isolation after airport checks.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    7 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Then again, it might be down to the rather more prosaic observation that, unlike the vast majority of affected countries, we live on an island?:oldgood:

    And you made good use of that fact by limiting travel from infected areas, put people in quarantine before any cases had entered the country ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    20 minutes ago, Garybournemouth said:

    We hear a lot about what action China has taken to reduce the rate of infections. What action did South Korea take to reduce infection rates?

    I'm supposing that South Korea has an infrastructure designed to cope with the ever-imminent threat of either a nuclear or biological attack, from its northern neighbour??

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
    13 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    But a weather forum with more doctors, virologists, epidemiologists (and even a smattering of witch doctors!) nurses, and other, assorted medical experts than you'll find in any NHS hospital...:oldlaugh:

    On tonight's roster: Dr.s Kildare, Owen, Kilmore and Crippin!:crazy:

    I'm just a witch. 

    Gah. This thread isn't doing the anxiety much good. *leaves*

    Stay healthy and sensible everyone.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
    22 minutes ago, snefnug said:

    Morning Knocker,

     

    I don’t see any reason why it should be removed, it is perfectly valid in the conversation.  I think it is  far more complex than described.  Elderly people at home need vastly more auxiliary nursing care than people think.  I am not. Carer, but I do look after the household needs of very elderly people.  Where I have seen care packages put in place (one for my mother who had Alzheimer’s in 2011), they are not really adequate, more of a “have you eaten/had a cup of tea”.  My mother refused to have the carers in her house, and legally that was her right. I used trek across from Wales to Derbyshire on a regular basis to clean the house, feed her up, sort out her medical needs and hygiene needs.  If we had lived closer she may  have been able to stay longer at home, but in the end, she refused access to anyone, so we had to transfer her to a care home for her own well-being.  The clients I have in the valley are housebound through age or infirmity.  One is self sufficient In she is internet savvy and orders her groceries online for delivery, orders clothes from companies on line and is a member of a thriving international online art community.  She hires me to clean the house and, I think, gossip.  One couple I shop for, take to hospital dental appointments, walk the dog, clean the house, etc... their offspring in Spain and USA respectively.  They too refuse care package, but are happy for me to run around....  in loco filia so to speak.

    The elderly (whatever that might mean) on the whole want to get home, whether they can cope or not. My mother was fiercely independent and was anti having any help. How the carers, who eventually gained access, maintained good humour I don’t know.  All I wanted to do was give her a darn good slap.  

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    29 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    Why is the Cheltenham festival going ahead when it was abandoned in 2001 because of foot and mouth which started late February?

    Yes does seem a bit bizarre . Especially when you consider last year I think over 250,000 attended from all over the UK. There might have been more public concern if the current UK cases were higher .

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    36 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    Why is the Cheltenham festival going ahead when it was abandoned in 2001 because of foot and mouth which started late February?

    Horses matter, humans don't?

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    Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex

    DCMOfficer Saying on the news that measures will be brought in to try and manage the outbreak.  Problem is if they bring it in too soon there will be problems with ongoing compliance. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Northern Italy has nearly double the amount of available critical care beds compared to the UK and still was overwhelmed .

    Has the UK government announced anything in relation to increasing that substantially?

    Clearly that matters . In Wuhan where the services became overwhelmed they had a fatality rate around 7 times higher than the rest of China which had a more uniform and lower spread .

    Northern Italy is in the same boat as Wuhan with the CFR.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Yes does seem a bit bizarre . Especially when you consider last year I think over 250,000 attended from all over the UK. There might have been more public concern if the current UK cases were higher .

    Tory majority, less than 1,000?Cheltenham festival gives a massive boost to the town, a bit like the weeks leading up to Xmas, but all in one week. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
    3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Northern Italy has nearly double the amount of available critical care beds compared to the UK and still was overwhelmed .

    Has the UK government announced anything in relation to increasing that substantially?

    Clearly that matters . In Wuhan where the services became overwhelmed they had a fatality rate around 7 times higher than the rest of China which had a more uniform and lower spread .

    Northern Italy is in the same boat as Wuhan with the CFR.

    I read something somewhere we might have beds stashed around the country from the war? Not sure how true that is.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Coronavirus crash: Stocks recover ground as Trump pledges 'relief'

    Quote

     

    Stock markets, including the FTSE 100, are staging a tentative recovery on Tuesday following their worst day since the 2008 financial crisis. Monday saw a crash in values globally, blamed on a surge in COVID-19 cases and Saudi threats of an oil price war which combined to send investors running for the hills.

    Japan's Nikkei put on 0.8% as its prime minister promised to work with the central bank in calming markets. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong was 1.5% higher. 

    The FTSE in London rose 1.8% - aided by a 5% recovery in Brent crude oil which was trading at $36 a barrel following Monday's collapse. Energy, travel and mining stocks were among those to claw back some value in early deals with Royal Dutch Shell leading the way with gains of more than 4%.

     

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-crash-stocks-recover-ground-as-trump-pledges-relief-11954220

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Coronavirus crash: Stocks recover ground as Trump pledges 'relief'

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-crash-stocks-recover-ground-as-trump-pledges-relief-11954220

    That should probably read Trump pledges relief to his election chances after ballsing up the USA response to the coronavirus ! 

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Penn, Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy and frosty
  • Location: Penn, Wolverhampton
    59 minutes ago, knocker said:

    I do not post in this thread for two reasons.

    1, I don’t know enough about the subject so my comments would be worthless

    2 The ban on the political dimension means that it cannot be discussed properly to the relevant depth and detail

    What I mean by this can be sunned up by the following extract from an article by Rachel Sylvester in Today’s Times

     The Covid-19 outbreak is another reminder that the divide between the health and social care systems is not only artificial, it is counterproductive. With elderly people more vulnerable to the disease, the pressure on hospitals is sure to grow but what could turn difficulty into disaster is the lack of social care for those who are well enough to go home.

    Already NHS wards are full of elderly patients who have no medical need to be in hospital. More than 148,000 bed days were lost in December alone as a result of delayed discharges. There has also been a 35 per cent rise in the number of dementia patients turning up at accident and emergency departments over the past five years following day care centre closures.

    The system is driven by perverse incentives. It costs about £250 a day for someone to be on a hospital ward and £100 for a domiciliary care package, so from the point of view of the NHS (and the taxpayer) it makes sense for elderly people to go home quickly — but councils, which are responsible for funding social care, have a financial motive to transfer the cost to hospitals. Although health funding has been ring-fenced, local authorities face a shortfall of almost £4 billion by 2025 in social care budgets.

    According to Age UK, 1.5 million elderly people are not getting the care and support they need. More than 1,600 residential and nursing homes have closed in the past five years and the government’s post-Brexit immigration policy, which includes a minimum salary threshold, will only make matters worse. There are already 122,000 vacancies in the sector and one in 11 care workers is from the EU.

    I realise this post will be removed tout suite

    Absolutely spot on.  For my sins when I worked in commissioning I sat in on the DTOC (delayed transfers of care) weekly meetings.  The stress between the acute hospital discharge team and social services was so palpable and at times was in  danger of blowing up into massive rows over this issue  - considerable control often needed to be adopted.  Admissions queuing at the front door but the back door out of the hospital very inactive simply because there is nowhere to put those medically/clinically fit enough to be discharged but not safe enough mobility wise or safe enough mentally to go home.  That was 7 years ago and still the problem doesn’t seem to have been sorted.   If this virus does take off the bed and discharge situation will get much worse.  What we desperately need in this country (in my view) is a programme of creating intermediate care facilities - step up or step down beds in the community and specialist community elderly mentally ill places.  Please don’t blame the elderly though, they have put their considerable bit “into the pot” down the years so deserve to be well looked after in their declining years.                     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire

    So my two friends are home from Italy now and they are aware of the "advice" to self isolate. I've made them at least promise to call their places of work to see what their employer's stance on the matter is. They both actually have sensitive jobs so I would be stunned if they're advised to come in.

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    Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
    5 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

    Absolutely spot on.  For my sins when I worked in commissioning I sat in on the DTOC (delayed transfers of care) weekly meetings.  The stress between the acute hospital discharge team and social services was so palpable and at times was in  danger of blowing up into massive rows over this issue  - considerable control often needed to be adopted.  Admissions queuing at the front door but the back door out of the hospital very inactive simply because there is nowhere to put those medically/clinically fit enough to be discharged but not safe enough mobility wise or safe enough mentally to go home.  That was 7 years ago and still the problem doesn’t seem to have been sorted.   If this virus does take off the bed and discharge situation will get much worse.  What we desperately need in this country (in my view) is a programme of creating intermediate care facilities - step up or step down beds in the community and specialist community elderly mentally ill places.  Please don’t blame the elderly though, they have put their considerable bit “into the pot” down the years so deserve to be well looked after in their declining years.                     

    A convalescent hospital? A half way house? Used to have those once upon a time. Usually in lovely grounds with lawns and trees. 

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