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Snipper

Novel Coronavirus – China

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Ahh another scare story another one to add to the list of diseases that were going to wipe us out. Aids, Bird Flu, Sars, and now the "carnivore" virus.

The Govenment says they are checking people but people flying into Heathrow are reporting no checks being done. 

Give it six months it could well be forgotten. To put it into perspective 600 people a year die from flu in the UK rising to 10,000 in bad years.

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25 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Ahh another scare story another one to add to the list of diseases that were going to wipe us out. Aids, Bird Flu, Sars, and now the "carnivore" virus.

The Govenment says they are checking people but people flying into Heathrow are reporting no checks being done. 

Give it six months it could well be forgotten. To put it into perspective 600 people a year die from flu in the UK rising to 10,000 in bad years.

Let us hope you are right.

At the moment I am just interested in how it evolves or not. Possibly people can relate to a virus and the fear that it produces as you can see the results in short real time compared to say Global Warming. Global warming  is happening but as nobody believes the media there still remains increasing scepticism by many about anything nowadays. 

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36 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Ahh another scare story another one to add to the list of diseases that were going to wipe us out. Aids, Bird Flu, Sars, and now the "carnivore" virus.

The Govenment says they are checking people but people flying into Heathrow are reporting no checks being done. 

Give it six months it could well be forgotten. To put it into perspective 600 people a year die from flu in the UK rising to 10,000 in bad years.

You could be very wrong the mortality rate with this virus is undoubtedly higher maybe much higher than common flu with 0.1% rate, the Spanish flu had a mortality rate of ~3% and it took 50 million lives more than war itself. If this is a super spreader, which it could well be...and mortality rate is low but not negligible many lives will be lost. They do not shut cities down lightly particularly China it is ominous sign they did not do this with SARS.

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Scotland, Russia and Canada also with suspected cases so we could be approaching 10 countries in less than a week there is simply no way this virus isn’t very virulent. Spreading like wild fire.

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9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You could be very wrong the mortality rate with this virus is undoubtedly higher maybe much higher than common flu with 0.1% rate, the Spanish flu had a mortality rate of ~3% and it took 50 million lives more than war itself. If this is a super spreader, which it could well be...and mortality rate is low but not negligible many lives will be lost. They do not shut cities down lightly particularly China it is ominous sign they did not do this with SARS.

Not saying you are right or wrong but health matters, systems and communications have moved on a lot since the first world war.

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25 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Not saying you are right or wrong but health matters, systems and communications have moved on a lot since the first world war.

Except in China and in other Far Eastern countires. 

There is NO country in The West that would allow all kinds of live animals, 'housed' in shi##y cages, to 'live' side by side, for days on end, in public street markets, in all kinds of temperatures........phew!......

And then to be sold on to humans for consumption in, either the home or restaurants. Simples. These diseases mutate in the Far East, and with global travel they spread.

If one is to test for signs of this disease in the UK start with the Unis and colleges where the Chinese are resident in droves.

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39 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You could be very wrong the mortality rate with this virus is undoubtedly higher maybe much higher than common flu with 0.1% rate, the Spanish flu had a mortality rate of ~3% and it took 50 million lives more than war itself. If this is a super spreader, which it could well be...and mortality rate is low but not negligible many lives will be lost. They do not shut cities down lightly particularly China it is ominous sign they did not do this with SARS.

We don't know yet and then you've got consider the general health of the people infected. 18 dead so far and nobodies sure how many have the virus and have shook it off or how many are not yet showing symptoms.

We are not screening at airports according to people who were getting off flights this morning so either our Government isn't taking it seriously or have better information than the media has.

We seem to get these scares every year or so which should tell you something.

Ebola was probably the nastiest since Aids and that was made worse by wars local customs and all their doctors disappearing to the west where all the money was leaving them short of qualified medical people to deal with it.

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2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Ahh another scare story another one to add to the list of diseases that were going to wipe us out. Aids, Bird Flu, Sars, and now the "carnivore" virus.

The Govenment says they are checking people but people flying into Heathrow are reporting no checks being done. 

Give it six months it could well be forgotten. To put it into perspective 600 people a year die from flu in the UK rising to 10,000 in bad years.

Maybe you are correct, but maybe you are very very wrong.

Some #'s for you to consider.

Seasonal Influenza has a mortality rate around 0.2%.  Basically, 1 out of every 500 people having it will die. So, if i stuck you in a large hall with 499 others, then saturated you all with an aerosol containing influenza, you would, assuming you have no other serious health concerns, probably not be overly worried beyond the knowledge that you are in for a couple of rough weeks.

SARS had a mortality rate of 9-10%. We are now in a situation where i stick you in a small room with 9 others, contaminate you with the virus, you will all be looking at each other in the knowledge that 1 of you is unlikely to make it! Being in reasonable physical condition may not help that much and if you have health problems, or are over 60 years of age, then the prognosis is seriously bad. An added bonus, you have no immunity, none what so ever.

This new virus appears to be closely related to SARS, but where as SARS was difficult to contract, the rapid proliferation of this one may indicate it is way more contagious and this is deeply concerning.  The better news is - so far, it may not have a particularly high mortality rate, maybe more on a par with seasonal flu, but it is still early days.

I do hope you are correct and this is forgotten about come this time next year.  But sooner or later, a novel virus is going to pop up and do some real damage.

Edited by swebby

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1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

Except in China and in other Far Eastern countires. 

There is NO country in The West that would allow all kinds of live animals, 'housed' in shi##y cages, to 'live' side by side, for days on end, in public street markets, in all kinds of temperatures........phew!......

And then to be sold on to humans for consumption in, either the home or restaurants. Simples. These diseases mutate in the Far East, and with global travel they spread.

If one is to test for signs of this disease in the UK start with the Unis and colleges where the Chinese are resident in droves.

Yes in China (and other places) if it moves eat it. Various reasons for this. I am sure the snakes and other things on sale did not have any vet review or test.  The markets I saw I wouldn’t want to eat any of it. Total lack of hygiene. 
At the moment I am not interested in discussing the pros and cons of eating animals. that is another matter. 

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6 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Yes in China (and other places) if it moves eat it. Various reasons for this. I am sure the snakes and other things on sale did not have any vet review or test.  The markets I saw I wouldn’t want to eat any of it. Total lack of hygiene. 
At the moment I am not interested in discussing the pros and cons of eating animals. that is another matter. 

"At the moment I am not interested in discussing the pros and cons of eating animals. that is another matter."

Nor am I.

My point is - the way the animals (a whole variety, like dogs, chickens, other birds, snakes, wolves) are kept, caged and very close together in shocking conditions, day in day out, in every town, village, parts of cities, in China and other Far Eastern countries is not conjusive to good hygiene, health, etc, etc. Therefore, it is no surprise to me these viruses start, mutate, and eventually infect humans, in these countries......no surprise at all.

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Latest numbers out of China are 830 cases and 25 deaths

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5 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Latest numbers out of China are 830 cases and 25 deaths

Plus about 20-25% of cases are presenting serious symptoms which need hospitalisation. I don't think this looks good at all.

We can only hope it mutates to become less severe, even if it means becoming more virulent.

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I expect that some sad people will take delight in spreading misinformation to stir up panic and concern. Already happening I believe. 

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I believe there are 9 cities no under restrictions    off course i dont know all the information    but it does sound rather excessive.  Unless of course its worse than the chinese media outlets are reporting?. 

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20 hours ago, The PIT said:

Ahh another scare story another one to add to the list of diseases that were going to wipe us out. Aids, Bird Flu, Sars, and now the "carnivore" virus.

The Govenment says they are checking people but people flying into Heathrow are reporting no checks being done. 

Give it six months it could well be forgotten. To put it into perspective 600 people a year die from flu in the UK rising to 10,000 in bad years.

I'm inclined to agree that this is being blown out of proportion by the media (as usual).  Every day in China 700 people die in road accidents for example.

That's not to say it's still a potentially serious situation.

Edited by CharmlessMan
Wanted to add something else

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3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

And God only knows how that's relevant!😲

Just putting the numbers in perspective.

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2 minutes ago, CharmlessMan said:

Just putting the numbers in perspective.

Maybe so.... but this is something that the Chinese are taking very seriously by the looks of it, so they must feel it has the potential to be very bad.  If it was just a standard flu virus they wouldn't put whole cities in lockdown.

Sadly we've had many situations before where authorities have said 'this is going to be really bad' and it hasn't....so many people now shrug their shoulders.

But that doesn't mean this one isn't going be big!

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I think the folk trying to understand why some folk are getting spooked do not understand viruses or the rate that they mutate/evolve

They talk as if 2019-nCoV is a 'static' thing and not a rapidly evolving entity which is adapting to a new host?

The biggest leap is not the transfer from critter to human but the first Human 2 Human mutations?

Restrict the spread and you limit the chances for this mutation to spread.

As it is it looks very much like they did not 'restrict the spread' esp. as Wuhan is an international transport hub?

Over the weeks post identification the communist govt. had two annual conferences in Wuhan (ending Jan 17th) with the potential that folk attending the 2 week conferences took the virus home to every part of China prior to the CNY festivities seeing millions travel around China to visit home towns/family.

Folk chiding others about 'numbers' and how they wrack up to other C.O.D.'s miss the point completely (IMHO)?

Wait until week 2 in Feb before you enter into the fray as that will be when any 'CNY surge' become apparent?

As for 'reports' coming from within Huwan?

Well they do not appear to tally with the numbers we are seeing released?

This may not be folk being naughty and hiding news but just the scale of the issue overwhelms any efforts to capture accurate stats?

Initial 'R0' numbers put it between 1.6 and 3.3 meaning it is more catchy than the seasonal Flu....but these numbers do not take into account the full scale of infection in Huwan where we are learning of many medical staff now succumbing even through protective gear.

In the early days of the outbreak a Beijing respiratory specialist visited the Wuhan wards and though protected and in the early days of the h2h mutation, managed to catch the virus via ocular transfer (got the virus on the mucus membrane of the eye?)

We are over 2 weeks down the line & h2h transfer will have mutated further with adaptations making transfer easier bound to be in the mix (ability to survive outside the host for longer/easier transfer between hosts)

Anyhoos, until we get the shakedown from the CNY mass transit we will not know if this will become pandemic. If we find such before week 2 Feb then we may already be in dire straights as we will have had a 'Super Spreader' infecting travel hubs and disbursing the virus globally

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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20 minutes ago, CharmlessMan said:

Just putting the numbers in perspective.

I don't intend my reply to be callous but those who are dead go to the morgue and don't put pressure on critical care facilities. This virus, as recorded, has a 25% critical care requirement: can you imagine what that statistic will do to the NHS bed situation?

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4 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I don't intend my reply to be callous but those who are dead go to the morgue and don't put pressure on critical care facilities. This virus, as recorded, has a 25% critical care requirement: can you imagine what that statistic will do to the NHS bed situation?

We just dare not go there!

The 2018/19 'Spanish Flu' death toll was centred around the young/able bodied as their 'super fit' immune systems went rogue leading to the body destroying itself (once H1N1 had 'lit the blue touch paper'?)

My concerns, whilst Luke was still around, centred on the the struggle the then NHS would have in dealing with numbers presenting. The NHS is much worse off today than through the noughties I can assure you!

As it is we have a new pathogen (Novel) that humanity has no natural defense from, has no cure for and is passing H2H even through protection

I'm keeping a weather eye on it for sure!

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As far as 'quarantine' goes our NHS is asking folk NOT to attend surgeries/A&E if you suspect you have 2019-nCoV but to phone your surgery/nhs on 111

Is this a precursor to what we saw in Canada over SARs with buildings/homes being locked down where suspected cases live?

How would the UK cope with such measures esp. those in flats with multiple occupancy?

Or will we adopt the Chinese method of closing down cities?(now 13 closed in China)

Do you live in a city with an international Airport? Hmmmm......

Edited by Gray-Wolf

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Snip from WHO conference.

Quote

Chinese authorities presented new epidemiological information that revealed an increase in the number of cases, of suspected cases, of affected provinces, and the proportion of deaths in currently reported cases of 4% (17 of 557). They reported fourth-generation cases in Wuhan and second-generation cases outside Wuhan, as well as some clusters outside Hubei province. They explained that strong containment measures (closure of public-transportation systems are in place in Wuhan City, as well as other nearby cities). After this presentation, the EC was informed about the evolution in Japan, Republic of Korea, and Thailand, and that one new possible case had been identified in Singapore.

The fourth generation cases are those who were infected by someone who was infected by someone with market exposure. The virologists were looking for this indicator as a prognosis for rapid spread.

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32 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Snip from WHO conference.

The fourth generation cases are those who were infected by someone who was infected by someone with market exposure. The virologists were looking for this indicator as a prognosis for rapid spread.

With Beijing's 'confirmed' cases rapidly rising I'd say we are about 5 days from any 4th Gen. spread becoming apparent there?

With the Airport there still open how many will be travelling home early next week with something more than duty free?

I worry that the folk from those 2 conferences in Wuhan , ending 17th Jan, have now had enough time to have infected others and those 'others' now be seeing symptoms?

If this has occurred then we have had a week of such transmission going on throughout ALL the major Chinese population centres?

If we begin to see things spike over this weekend then we'll know not only that the virus is not contained and very catchy but that it is outside of China & spreading?

Next weekend would see the first of the CNY derived cases crop up and the size of that spike will indicate how many were carriers in the areas they visited?(i.e at the moment)

5 days incubation and up to 4 days more for symptoms to become serious so if we say a week from exposure to onset of serious symptoms we'd not be far wrong?

As an aside only 25% display 'Serious' symptoms so 3/4 of folk with it will not be very ill and just carry on with the spreading of the virus giving it more chances for it to mutate further......

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