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Snipper

Novel Coronavirus – China

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Zak M said:

 

Not inclined to take much notice of that when not even headed by the right name of the virus

Edited by Snipper
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Just a little word on underlying conditions etc.

According to the British Lung Foundation (and it seems the figures are from 2012, and rising, so probably more now), on average 13,500 people are admitted to hospital every single week, for 2 or more days with some form of lung disease. They also claim that someone dies from lung disease in the UK every 5 mins (thats obviously on average). 10,000 people are diagnosed with lung disease every week. Roughly 6,000,000 people are on medication for some form of lung disease (mainly inhalers).

Now obviously the worriers could argue that it means at least 6 million people are at risk from this virus, but I personally find it more telling that people dont go around panic buying worrying about lung disease, or closing down airports or shutting down anything that has even the slightest amount of pollution/emissions. I still think just a little bit of perspective is needed when you compare these figures.

......For now at least. I mean who's to say this virus doesnt kill half the planet over 10 years somehow (you couldnt rule it out, but you'd be clinically mad if you actually thought this would happen), but if you worried about every single thing that could make you ill/kill you, you'd never leave your house, and never see anyone.

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36 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Damage done?  Good reason to stop in any event for a long term future. Look on the optimistic side. 

Even just a few weeks off will be a benefit, lung function will improve, and any improvement will help in the event viral pneumonia develops. Absolutely correct about long term stuff.  

I'm only a social smoker but knocked it on the head when i saw it was using ACE2 as a means to infect, and the outcome could be pneumonia.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, swebby said:

I have heard that the strain circulating in Italy may not be the same as that in S.Korea, likewise for the USA. I've no idea if this is true, but again, the deaths in Italy are probably down to the stress on their health service, combined with a very old population, not because their local  virus is inherently more dangerous.

I've no issue with people discussing ideas like this, but posters do need to remember that those discussions may be taken further afield on SM and leads to unhelpful theories going viral ('scuse the pun) so maybe clearly caveat that what you are posting are your own ideas and are not substantiated in anyway? 

 

Agreed, but I think anyone would have to admit that is a HUGE disparity between Germany and Italy and the numbers of people who for example are being hospitalised. Surely we aren't saying that Italy's health services is many many times worse than Germany, or that the population of Italy is many times older than Germany? FWIW the median age of Germany is actually a touch older than Italy (45.9 vs 45.4) so that is not the reason either.

Its just hard to see any logical reason there can be such a huge difference, other than a variation of the strain of virus? Occam's razor would lead me to there first given such a monumental difference. The other thing it could realistic be is Germany is doing mad amount of testing and shutting every known case down instantly. South Korea has shown great success at doing something like that, but without knowing how many tests Germany has done, not sure if that could be the case or not.

But your right, no one really knows!

 

Edited by kold weather
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1 minute ago, swebby said:

Even just a few weeks off will be a benefit, lung function will improve, and any improvement will help in the event viral pneumonia develops. Absolutely correct about long term stuff.  

I'm only a social smoker but knocked it on the head when i saw it was using ACE2 as a means to infect, and the outcome could be pneumonia.

Yep, quit myself 10 days ago. Hoping a couple of weeks off it will see at least some improvement in lung health.

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Agreed, but I think anyone would have to admit that is a HUGE disparity between Germany and Italy and the numbers of people who for example are being hospitalised. Surely we aren't saying that Italy's health services is many many times worse than Germany, or that the population of Italy is many times older than Germany? FWIW the median age of Germany is actually a touch older than Italy (45.9 vs 45.4) so that is not the reason either.

Its just hard to see any logical reason there can be such a huge difference, other than a variation of the strain of virus?

But your right, no one really knows!

 

Yes, possibly Kold, but I honestly think it is simply a case that Northern Italy is overwhelmed. The 5% they have in Northern italy is strikingly similar to Wuhan?  I've got to head home now, but if someone wants to check the figures for various Italian regions, this could tell a story?

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Agreed, but I think anyone would have to admit that is a HUGE disparity between Germany and Italy and the numbers of people who for example are being hospitalised. Surely we aren't saying that Italy's health services is many many times worse than Germany, or that the population of Italy is many times older than Germany? FWIW the median age of Germany is actually a touch older than Italy (45.9 vs 45.4) so that is not the reason either.

Its just hard to see any logical reason there can be such a huge difference, other than a variation of the strain of virus?

But your right, no one really knows!

 

It could also be due to different medical practices or insurance policies. If you want to kill weak vulnerable older people just put them in a hospital, the perfect breeding ground for the nastiest secondary infections, do you want pseudomonas or mrsa,  just get admitted into a hospital,  especially with compromised lung epithelium. That might just have been what Italy has been doing 

Edited by ArHu3
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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Agreed, but I think anyone would have to admit that is a HUGE disparity between Germany and Italy and the numbers of people who for example are being hospitalised. Surely we aren't saying that Italy's health services is many many times worse than Germany, or that the population of Italy is many times older than Germany? FWIW the median age of Germany is actually a touch older than Italy (45.9 vs 45.4) so that is not the reason either.

Its just hard to see any logical reason there can be such a huge difference, other than a variation of the strain of virus?

But your right, no one really knows!

 

Or that Italy has missed an awful lot of cases. A lot of the European cases seem to have stemmed from Italy, suggesting both that they should be the same strain, and that there are a hell of a lot of Italians infected for travellers to catch it off. 

I hope so anyway. 

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2 minutes ago, Bedknobs and Boomsticks said:

Or that Italy has missed an awful lot of cases. A lot of the European cases seem to have stemmed from Italy, suggesting both that they should be the same strain, and that there are a hell of a lot of Italians infected for travellers to catch it off. 

I hope so anyway. 

From how many cases seem to be stemming from there, I wouldn't be surprised if the actual number of people infected was 100x greater than the official figure.

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Apparently the NHS is taking 5 days to confirm test results . 

If that’s true then the figures they’re releasing need to be viewed with that in mind . 

The reporting of the 3rd UK death this evening . A man in his 60s .

He had underlying health issues and had recently travelled from an infected region . The CMO was keen to stress his underlying health issues but he was clearly sufficiently well to go on holiday so how sick could he have been before the virus .

The thing I find rather unpalatable is this sort of underlying narrative that people were sick anyway so it’s well no great loss and might have happened down the line!

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The thing I find rather unpalatable is this sort of underlying narrative that people were sick anyway so it’s well no great loss and might have happened down the line!

The cynic in me thinks this is all to prevent full on panic amongst the general public. The elderly are less likely to go out looting and causing social issues.

I dread to think what would happen if they went out claiming it was killing young, healthy people too.

Edited by CreweCold
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6 minutes ago, Bedknobs and Boomsticks said:

Or that Italy has missed an awful lot of cases. A lot of the European cases seem to have stemmed from Italy, suggesting both that they should be the same strain, and that there are a hell of a lot of Italians infected for travellers to catch it off. 

I hope so anyway. 

Want to be locked up for at least 2 weeks, go to the doctor with minor flu like symptoms.... I wouldn't and I suspect many with only minor symptoms won't in the light of this hysteria

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2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Want to be locked up for at least 2 weeks, go to the doctor with minor flu like symptoms.... I wouldn't and I suspect many with only minor symptoms won't in the light of this hysteria

Nor would i but wouldn't be out spreading it either, given my general health not being great i would be sitting at home hoping symptoms would go but having my finger near the phone in case i might feel like i might be about conk out.

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6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

.

The thing I find rather unpalatable is this sort of underlying narrative that people were sick anyway so it’s well no great loss and might have happened down the line!

It might be a case of reading too much into every word uttered. 

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nor would i but wouldn't be out spreading it either, given my general health not being great i would be sitting at home hoping symptoms would go but having my finger near the phone in case i might feel like i might be about conk out.

It would however cause a big underestimation of prevalence and thus a big overestimation of the mortality rate 

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6 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Want to be locked up for at least 2 weeks, go to the doctor with minor flu like symptoms.... I wouldn't and I suspect many with only minor symptoms won't in the light of this hysteria

If you are not suffering unduly why waste the NHS’s time? Not as if they haven’t got anything better to do. Of course this might skew the statistics.

I’d just self medicate and ensure I didn’t cause a spread.

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Just now, Snipper said:

It might be a case of reading too much into every word uttered. 

No this narrative is being used to mass desensitize the general public .

 

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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No this narrative is being used to mass desensitize the general public .

 

Your authority for your comment? Or a gut feeling as you “know” such things?

Not sure what they should say that would be right. 

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Have we had any official breakdown of the % of people per age range who need hospitalisation and if not, why not?

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5 new cases in Northern Ireland

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29 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

It would however cause a big underestimation of prevalence and thus a big overestimation of the mortality rate 

It would quite right, but then prove it very contagious, it doesn't matter whether you have 1 million people die from  1 million cases or 1 million die from 7 billion cases, 1 million dead is 1 million dead.

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