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Novel Coronavirus – China

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

if you didnt know you had it you wont report it..to me its obvious the number of unreported cases will be much higher than those reported!

Once again though that is exactly against what WHO reported, and to be honest we don't know exactly how accurate that is but its the best data we have right at this moment, anything else is just pure guesswork.

Anyway it is interesting to see how its hitting some populations real hard, and others far lighter. For example South Korea and Italy aren't that dissimilar (SK is probably 3-5 days ahead in terms of cases) yet SK has had 42 deaths, Italy now upto 197 (and with a rather worryingly high amount of intensive care numbers considering the case numbers).

I think so far the UK government has straddled the line between complacency and panicking very well, and whilst there is a little bit of mixed messaging, overall I think its been quite well led by the experts (as opposed to the USA) and decisions seem to have been very well thought through. For example closing schools at this point seems to make little sense. Once we are getting 1000s cases a day, then maybe it would make more sense (and frnankly by that point, probably schools would be starting to struggle to staff the schools anyway.)

 

Edited by kold weather
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Apparently a 2nd death in the UK. An elderly man in Milton keys was admitted to a public ward with pneumonia. If hospitals are making such simple mistakes even now well one is speechless.

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Posted (edited)

The UK can't control this the way China did.  A few things spring to mind.

  • 1) NHS couldn't build a hospital in 10 years, let alone 10 days.
  • 2) Police forces are overstretched
  • 3) The Government wouldn't want to be seen placing Army on the streets.
  • 4) The DfT is highly unlikely to order the CAA to close down the UK FIR and thus prevent any flights entering the country, especially when the power of the likes of Willie Walsh with Spanish Airways, sorry I meant BA knocking on the door about shareholders etc etc

The only credible solution is to close the UK FIR, close all transport networks and businesses for 10-14 days.   Once things are under control, allow all UK airports to operate 24 hours for a set period, allow a relaxation on Sunday trading till end of the year.   Christmas Day basically, except airports are closed.

  

Just now, The PIT said:

Apparently a 2nd death in the UK. An elderly man in Milton keys was admitted to a public ward with pneumonia. If hospitals are making such simple mistakes even now well one is speechless.

A few hospitals have multiple patients, KCH London is one.  That's why I suspect they've removed naming locations....

 

Edited by Robbie Garrett
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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Could be a good thing, if people take it seriously then hand washing and staying away from crowded areas might then reduce its spread.

Less than an hour ago you said hand washing is too late.....make ya mind up ?

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10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Nothing wrong sharing figures they are important in our understanding of spread, this thread is dedicated for that, you think it is under control in France, Italy etc? Time you screwed your head back on tbh! 
 

Data doesn’t require a commentary it speaks for itself...

Understanding is great.

Agreed, don't see the need for a running commentary.

Some perspective wouldn't go amiss.......

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Once again though that is exactly against what WHO reported, and to be honest we don't know exactly how accurate that is but its the best data we have right at this moment.

Anyway it is interesting to see how its hitting some populations real hard, and others far lighter. For example South Korea and Italy aren't that dissimilar (SK is probably 3-5 days ahead in terms of cases) yet SK has had 42 deaths, Italy now upto 197 (and with a rather worryingly high amount of intensive care numbers considering the case numbers).

I think so far the UK government has straddled the line between complacency and panicking very well, and whilst there is a little bit of mixed messaging, overall I think its been quite well led by the experts (as opposed to the USA) and decisions seem to have been very well thought through. For example closing schools at this point seems to make little sense. Once we are getting 1000s cases a day, then maybe it would make more sense (and frnankly by that point, probably schools would be starting to struggle to staff the schools anyway.)

 

Remember Kold that our Boris said they would increase class sizes if this happened. Just so the virus could spread more easily. This isn't a good idea really.

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Posted (edited)

Interesting response from government I have just read here. Pharmacies have been authorised to produce their own alcohol hand gels - all must sell for a pre-determined price of 3€ per 100 ml no matter where they are sold.

I wonder how you make it - apparently vodka doesn't work according to a BBC article I read earlier today as it needs at least 60% alcohol. Anyone got a recipe? I've made soap...

Edited by Spikecollie
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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Once again though that is exactly against what WHO reported, and to be honest we don't know exactly how accurate that is but its the best data we have right at this moment.

Anyway it is interesting to see how its hitting some populations real hard, and others far lighter. For example South Korea and Italy aren't that dissimilar (SK is probably 3-5 days ahead in terms of cases) yet SK has had 42 deaths, Italy now upto 197 (and with a rather worryingly high amount of intensive care numbers considering the case numbers).

I think so far the UK government has straddled the line between complacency and panicking very well, and whilst there is a little bit of mixed messaging, overall I think its been quite well led by the experts (as opposed to the USA) and decisions seem to have been very well thought through. For example closing schools at this point seems to make little sense. Once we are getting 1000s cases a day, then maybe it would make more sense (and frnankly by that point, probably schools would be starting to struggle to staff the schools anyway.)

 

I will trust the CMO and his data. I don't think it's a coincidence that the country that has tested the most people has almost exactly the mortality rate that is predicted by our CMO and his model. 

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2 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

The UK can't control this the way China did.  A few things spring to mind.

  • 1) NHS couldn't build a hospital in 10 years, let alone 10 days.
  • 2) Police forces are overstretched
  • 3) The Government wouldn't want to be seen placing Army on the streets.
  • 4) The DfT is highly unlikely to order the CAA to close down the UK FIR and thus prevent any flights entering the country, especially when the power of the likes of Willie Walsh with Spanish Airways, sorry I meant BA knocking on the door about shareholders etc etc

The only credible solution is to close the UK FIR, close all transport networks and businesses for 10-14 days.   Once things are under control, allow all UK airports to operate 24 hours for a set period, allow a relaxation on Sunday trading till end of the year.   Christmas Day basically, except airports are closed.

 

You mean nearly all western countries cant control this like China did, not just the UK. But on the flip side, this virus wasnt caused by those western countries, so its swings and roundabouts! 

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3 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

A few hospitals have multiple patients, KCH London is one.  That's why I suspect they've removed naming locations....

 

This was Milton Keynes hospital and he was on a cruise ship. A public ward isn't a good idea so now they've got to track all the people down that have visited plus check they own staff.

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1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Remember Kold that our Boris said they would increase class sizes if this happened. Just so the virus could spread more easily. This isn't a good idea really.

Then that would also increase the likelyhood of teachers getting infected and a nice little feedback loop starts.

I'd personally still take a wait and see stance for the moment, certainly a chance that the real ramp up of cases coincide closely with the easter holidays anyway and the govt just try to limp it through to that point and review it after then.

 

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1 minute ago, Spikecollie said:

Interesting response from government I have just read here. Pharmacies have been authorised to produce their own alcohol hand gels - all must sell for a pre-determined price of 3€ per 100 ml no matter where they are sold.

I wonder how you make it - apparently vodka doesn't work according to a BBC article I read earlier today as it needs at least 60% alcohol. Anyone got a recipe?

It doesn’t seem difficult to produce, takes as little as 5 minutes apparently!

Equipment / Tools

Bowl and spoon

Funnel

Bottle with pump dispenser

Materials

2/3 cup 99 percent rubbing alcohol (isopropyl alcohol) or ethanol

1/3 cup aloe vera gel

8 to 10 drops essential oil, optional

WWW.THESPRUCE.COM

Here is an easy recipe to make homemade hand sanitizer. You control the ingredients, so you can make sure the sanitizer is safe and effective.

 

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1 minute ago, emax said:

You mean nearly all western countries cant control this like China did, not just the UK. But on the flip side, this virus wasnt caused by those western countries, so its swings and roundabouts! 

They can although in China people do what they told by authorities. Here it would need a bit of persuasion before the message got through. 

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5 minutes ago, emax said:

Less than an hour ago you said hand washing is too late.....make ya mind up ?

Yes in the sense that that a few old people who don't go to the pub who are retired might just stop it but it ain't gonna stop it being a

 

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4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Remember Kold that our Boris said they would increase class sizes if this happened. Just so the virus could spread more easily. This isn't a good idea really.

But bringing the country to a standstill, and the massive economic implications that causes,  because of a 1-4% death rate isn't a good idea either. Its a fine balance in reality.

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Then that would also increase the likelyhood of teachers getting infected and a nice little feedback loop starts.

I'd personally still take a wait and see stance for the moment, certainly a chance that the real ramp up of cases coincide closely with the easter holidays anyway and the govt just try to limp it through to that point and review it after then.

 

The main question for me is can the NHS cope. It's unlikely. So the best way forward is closing things down just to delay it and hope that warmer weather makes it weaker. That still leaves next winter to think about.

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2 minutes ago, emax said:

But bringing the country to a standstill, and the massive economic implications that causes,  because of a 1-4% death rate isn't a good idea either. Its a fine balance in reality.

See my reply to Kold.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It doesn’t seem difficult to produce, takes as little as 5 minutes apparently!

Equipment / Tools

Bowl and spoon

Funnel

Bottle with pump dispenser

Materials

2/3 cup 99 percent rubbing alcohol (isopropyl alcohol) or ethanol

1/3 cup aloe vera gel

8 to 10 drops essential oil, optional

WWW.THESPRUCE.COM

Here is an easy recipe to make homemade hand sanitizer. You control the ingredients, so you can make sure the sanitizer is safe and effective.

 

Got the ingredients, may need some more rubbing alcohol but a project for tomorrow. I make all sorts - will check the alcohol content and report back when made!

Edited by Spikecollie
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Just now, emax said:

But bringing the country to a standstill, and the massive economic implications that causes,  because of a 1-4% death rate isn't a good idea either. Its a fine balance in reality.

if the majority of the world is infected is a lot of dead people - that equals hundreds of thousands of september 11th's or millions of hillsborough disasters.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

I will trust the CMO and his data. I don't think it's a coincidence that the country that has tested the most people has almost exactly the mortality rate that is predicted by our CMO and his model. 

What is interesting is that the SK outcome is quite close to the 0.5% fatality rate that the 1968 Influenza outbreak had and led to an estimated 1 million deaths worldwide. I suspect once everything is done we may not be far short from that sort of figure, though if we get lucky summer will save us before it gets that bad as heat does seem to have some impact on it.

Emax, its such a hard call to make, I think we may have to go really draconian at some point in the near future, but the goal has to be to limit that period of time because there are real world consequences. China did it and it seems to have really limited things. 

Edited by kold weather
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46 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Don’t give that excuse spike! South Korea have tested over 100,000 people, France “only” has 613 confirmed cases, you have the means too, they are concealing the truth just as it ramps up coincidence, I don’t think so. Likelihood it is many thousands if such measures are now being done. Out of control. 

the issue is this will be going largely undercover and unnoticed... france in some way has conceded defeat.

But if there is also the annual flu epidemic, then perhaps that is the only way they can test?

 

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It’s all very well saying they won’t close schools but I can see teachers refusing to work as the risk of infection will be so high!

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

if the majority of the world is infected is a lot of dead people - that equals hundreds of thousands of september 11th's or millions of hillsborough disasters.

Statistics baulk at the comparison of "apples and pears" so please don't do that. It's like comparing the frequency of road dearhs to those in air crashes...

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10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think so far the UK government has straddled the line between complacency and panicking very well, and whilst there is a little bit of mixed messaging, overall I think its been quite well led by the experts (as opposed to the USA) and decisions seem to have been very well thought through.

I agree!

Whatever people's political bias, you can't deny that, compared with the rest of the world, the UK is up there with the nations that are handling it well (or at least fairly well). People will always complain their government isnt doing enough, and there is always room for improvement I admit, but compared to everyone else, we're being led fairly well, for now at least. 

If this virus is something that really concerns and worries you, then there aren't many countries you'd be better off in, if any in reality. Thats not to say everything will be hunky dory for everyone, but a bit of perspective wouldn't go a miss, as it could be a lot lot worse!

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Just now, bobbarley said:

It’s all very well saying they won’t close schools but I can see teachers refusing to work as the risk of infection will be so high!

I am a teacher, what I've noticed is thus far there isn't too much worry about that, but if things were to escalate then I suspect some may start to think that way.

I'm personally not that concerned yet, but I'm in the low risk bracket.

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