Jump to content

Novel Coronavirus – China


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 6.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Can I just say huge credit to all those in here who have talked so openly and bravely  about issues that often don’t get discussed in these types of forums . And also to thank all the members who

Okay, there appears to be a couple of ideas circulating on the forum which people may be getting carried away with? I understand why people are running with them, because it creates the idea that

Can we drop the conspiracy and misinformation type stuff in here please - we all have a responsibility not to spread that kind of thing, as well as the virus. In the real world, wash your hands!

Posted Images

54 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Sir Patrick Vallance, a scientific govt adviser, (he is the guy who was on GMB this morn) just commented on ITV news that there probably needs to be some herd immunity to help fight the virus. A balancing act between still letting people mix and isolation. Interesting.

Any one else on here with medical expertise like to comment? Does his comments suggest they're a bit relaxed about loads of people getting it?

In the absence of a vaccine, it is the something that will slow it's spread other than potential seasonality.  The percentage of population required for herd immunity to be effective is determined by the pathogens basic reproduction number, i.e the average number of people a carrier then infects. Something not readily transmissible, that only infects one person at a time, will face difficulties the second immune people start appearing in the population.  Something stupidly contagious like measles only starts to have issues once 80% of the population are immune.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

Sir Patrick Vallance, a scientific govt adviser, (he is the guy who was on GMB this morn) just commented on ITV news that there probably needs to be some herd immunity to help fight the virus. A balancing act between still letting people mix and isolation. Interesting.

Any one else on here with medical expertise like to comment? Does his comments suggest they're a bit relaxed about loads of people getting it?

Just been chewing over this.

They clearly have models for a UK epidemic, which is why they are predicting a lag time from the first instances of sustained community transmission, a nine week peak containing a three week period where the NHS will be under severe pressure. They are also clearly keen that at risk groups isolate themselves during the peak phase.  If you are being cynical, you could view this as they possibly want an epidemic in the young and fit to create a herd immunity in absence of a vaccine? I would question if any government would be so cynical, but if they have modeled other scenarios, probably including economic impacts, and they prove really bad, then just maybe?

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, swebby said:

Hi GW, Asymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is likely to be an extreme occurrence compared to someone coughing and spluttering everywhere and then touching a handrail or the door button on a tube train.  That said, a strain with a mutation that helps facilitate asymptomatic transmission would, just like a mild strain, experience a competitive advantage over other strains.  It then comes down to a law of numbers and a mild symptomatic form should still prevail over other forms.  The ideal pathology for a respiratory virus is to be mild allowing a carrier to act as normal but causing lots mucus to aid transmission. Contagion by surface contact is more effective for a very good reason, it is a much better environment, compared to a fine aerosol, for a virus to survive things like sunlight, heat and aridity.

I'm sorry but it also infects our fecal matter and so the 'transfer' is not just reliant on someone coughing/sneezing on their hands and then 'transferring' it to a surface?

If you've ever been on a ward when Norovirus has broken out you'll know just how quickly such transfer travels around the community?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Early on in this thread somebody posted this which I saved.

We are wayyyy ahead of schedule. Alarming really.

By the 8th March it predicted 40,663 cumulative infections and 1,220 deaths from the disease. We are on over 100k and nearly 4k deaths 2 days sooner.

We are well on course to hit 7.7 billion cases by 20th September and if the WHO mortality rate of 3 percent holds true, 231 million deaths.

wuh.png

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

My local Tesco has run out of soap...What's wrong with these muppets!:wallbash:

Ahem! I dropped into to my local Lidl just an hour ago on my way back from work to pick up a few bits and bobs for the weekend and next week, including - toilet paper - guess what, no flippin' toilet paper. I went across to SuperU guess what, no fliipin' toilet paper. Hardly any soap and certainly no hand gels. I have one more call to make in a few minutes to a woman in the village so I'll drop into the local shop and see if they have any toilet paper. I have twelve rolls left and I'll go back to Lidl on Monday and buy kitchen roll, which they had lots of, in the event of there being no toilet paper again.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Early on in this thread somebody posted this which I saved.

We are wayyyy ahead of schedule. Alarming really.

By the 8th March it predicted 40,663 cumulative infections and 1,220 deaths from the disease. We are on over 100k and nearly 4k deaths 2 days sooner.

We are well on course to hit 7.7 billion cases by 20th September and if the WHO mortality rate of 3 percent holds true, 231 million deaths.

wuh.png

Something fishy about one of those columns headings. 

All this time I thought it was a respiratory disease.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Astral Goat Juice said:

Something fishy about one of those columns headings. 

All this time I thought it was a respiratory disease.

hahaha my friend pointed that out - I'm genuinely surprised I didn't "catch" it sooner if you'll pardon the pun.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Early on in this thread somebody posted this which I saved.

We are wayyyy ahead of schedule. Alarming really.

By the 8th March it predicted 40,663 cumulative infections and 1,220 deaths from the disease. We are on over 100k and nearly 4k deaths 2 days sooner.

We are well on course to hit 7.7 billion cases by 20th September and if the WHO mortality rate of 3 percent holds true, 231 million deaths.

wuh.png

That must be assuming that there's no attempts to stop it surely? I'd be very confident in predicting that everybody on the planet will not have had it in 6 months time.Even if it doesn't die back during the summer the numbers will be in the millions not billions.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

That must be assuming that there's no attempts to stop it surely? I'd be very confident in predicting that everybody on the planet will not have had it in 6 months time.Even if it doesn't die back during the summer the numbers will be in the millions not billions.

I think this assumes my worst fear which is when attempts to curtail the spread become impossible and access to treatment is non existent.

I'm praying it never gets to that point but i think it's not out of the question.

And what happens when people are too afraid to go out or go to work?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I'm sorry but it also infects our fecal matter and so the 'transfer' is not just reliant on someone coughing/sneezing on their hands and then 'transferring' it to a surface?

If you've ever been on a ward when Norovirus has broken out you'll know just how quickly such transfer travels around the community?

Hi GW, Norovirus, is exceptionally contagious and i'd be cautious about drawing comparisons with Covid-19 and the transmission pathways for gastric infections.

I'm not saying fecal-oral transmission should be ignored with Covid-19, and certainly not in hospitals or with young children, but it is a respiratory infection, so the contaminated surface contact pathway will be the most important consideration

Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Early on in this thread somebody posted this which I saved.

We are wayyyy ahead of schedule. Alarming really.

By the 8th March it predicted 40,663 cumulative infections and 1,220 deaths from the disease. We are on over 100k and nearly 4k deaths 2 days sooner.

We are well on course to hit 7.7 billion cases by 20th September and if the WHO mortality rate of 3 percent holds true, 231 million deaths.

wuh.png

This isn’t a model it’s a basic spreadsheet.

I’d love to get the excel file and run through the assumptions and inputs pages with some experts.  Needs auditing before consuming.   

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Maybe some good news

 

 

Wouldn’t that be all over the news by now . 18 hours ago and unless governments want their economies to crash then surely this new found break through would be making headline news and they’d be going public with it .

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Wouldn’t that be all over the news by now . 18 hours ago and unless governments want their economies to crash then surely this new found break through would be making headline news and they’d be going public with it .

 

I’m not sure.

reading through the technical jargon it seems the paper was only published today or yesterday. I don’t really know how these things get from the lab to the consumer.

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, swebby said:

The actual paper

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30229-4.pdf

Not read it yet, so no idea if this is a viable treatment. 

I’ve read peoples opinions and interpretations because I’m not smart enough to make my own conclusions.

some chatter about smoking actually being beneficial in the sense it inhibits ACE2 expression making it harder for the virus to get in.

would be absolutely bizarre and so very very ironic if smoking actually had a chance at saving your life.

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Wouldn’t that be all over the news by now . 18 hours ago and unless governments want their economies to crash then surely this new found break through would be making headline news and they’d be going public with it .

 

Only been done in cell lines. I think the comments say it's approved for use in Japan so maybe they could start using it, but it would be in a trial format and we would have to wait at least a few weeks for the results of that.

Edited by Snowy L
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I’ve read peoples opinions and interpretations because I’m not smart enough to make my own conclusions.

some chatter about smoking actually being beneficial in the sense it inhibits ACE2 expression making it harder for the virus to get in.

would be absolutely bizarre and so very very ironic if smoking actually had a chance at saving your life.

Now watch all the cigarettes sell out!!

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

New poster here; came for Storm Ciara but stayed for the Corona virus.

For people talking about modelling, its actually very easy to do. Open up an excel sheet. Start on say row 10, and manually set B9 =1, C9 = 1, D9 = 0, F9 = date of start of outbreak

Column A: R0 number = ? (4 works well for current European outbreaks, reducing rapidly once serious control measures kick in for places like Italy, S Korea and China)

Column B: Total infected = C10+B9

Column C : Total infected per incubation period = A9*C9*(1-D9)

Column D : Proportion of population infected = B10 / 65,000,000 (for UK)

Column E: Incubation period = ? (again, 4 works well for current European outbreaks)

Column F: Date = F9 + E10

Now drag Row 10 down for a terrifying demonstration of the power of exponential growth, plus an interesting demonstration of how herd immunity can stabilise infection at below 100%.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To remove a big blank space.
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, swebby said:

The actual paper

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30229-4.pdf

Not read it yet, so no idea if this is a viable treatment. 

The discussion part is interesting . There’s currently a drug licensed which uses camostat mesilate which researchers showed managed to block the entry of the virus into the lungs but clinical trials would be needed . That drug is already licensed in Japan but for pancreatis.

The issue here of course is that you’d have to start this drug before entry into the lungs and it’s not a case of giving patients or their families a chance to use this as a measure of last resort.

Once reaction to the virus has lead to pneumonia then this drug I wouldn’t have thought could be of much benefit .

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...