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Novel Coronavirus – China


Snipper

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 minute ago, Spikecollie said:

Let's not go there with "pseudo-science", Mattwolves. Most so called predictions are interpreted coincidences. Let's leave it there - I'm happy for people to believe what they wish but this is not the time or the place...

I've brought it up for the fact its quite bizarre and is being discussed much on social media! With a lot of people finding the article quite reassuring! And that can be quite comforting for many. I appreciate alot of folks are stressed, myself included, but it's just calming to think that this could ebate as quickly as it emerged.. And I'm sure we all hope and prey that's the case. 

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
10 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Full facts not available though from that letter you posted. Do we know the age demographics? Do we know details about underlying medical conditions? And the key Q is

Do we know the full facts to make a qualified judgement?

The first part of your post is irrelevant.

The 2nd part is that a fact......10% of cases are in ICU.....is very worrying.

The letter is trying to make sure people such as Boris and Donald are taking this seriously.

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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
4 minutes ago, Azazel said:

God yeah my Dad is the same. 76 and still runs his own business. Straight out the door to the office unless he’s completely incapacitated or in hospital.

Ive tried to tell him to take this thing Super seriously without scaring him but he doesn’t scare (on the surface anyway) and he’s just so laid back about everything and thinks I overreact.

He has no immune system, he’s overweight and he’s just had pneumonia. I am absolutely fearing the worst and reading that letter out of Milan has just hit me like a sledgehammer.

I think there is a balance with parents. When my Dad was in the terminal stages of bowel cancer he continued driving with his morphine syringe driver in place until he could drive no more. If you try to stop your Dad from going about his commercial and other business he may either rebel and tell you where to go (!)/ignore you,  or do as he is told and get very depressed. He sounds an independent man, I'd let him make his own decisions - but you know him better than I do.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
2 minutes ago, matty40s said:

The first part of your post is irrelevant.

The 2nd part is that a fact......10% of cases are in ICU.....is very worrying.

The letter is trying to make sure people such as Boris and Donald are taking this seriously.

Irrelevant? No it's not, because if majority of these cases are, say, over 70, and/or have existing serious medical conditions then the % in ICU would be expected.

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
25 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

I was only thinking this myself while walking with doglet earlier. Someone suggested that we might wake up and find it snowing, having been so absorbed with COVID-19 not to have checked the models/forecasts! Seriously, there are many many threats out there and the real bugbear of our world is cancer. It is indiscriminate and does kill babies, children and those in their prime of life. It is too easy to get bound up with the real and present danger and to forget that the other bogeymen will still be there when we get out of this. Keep giving to, working with and thinking of cancer charities. I have lost three family members to the wretched thing and have one in current remission.

Some are using the argument that compared to cancer Corvi19 is not a serious killer. Therefore it is a complete bore and nothing of note. There are millions of people who die from various causes every year. But we do not want the many millions with underlying health problems to go sooner due to this virus?

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7 minutes ago, matty40s said:

The first part of your post is irrelevant.

The 2nd part is that a fact......10% of cases are in ICU.....is very worrying.

The letter is trying to make sure people such as Boris and Donald are taking this seriously.

Its still to early to compare countries, so I appreciate this is just a rough guide, but.......at the present time at least, the ICU cases in Italy appear to be the same percentage as the ICU cases in Wuhan currently (9% Italy, 8.5% Wuhan). Obviously Wuhan is well ahead of Italy case and time wise, so to a degree its meaningless, but I'm sure I recall the serious and critical cases in the early stages were around 20% for Wuhan etc.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
42 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Isn't that a warm area climate wise, I don't like this, dheli and bethlehem I don't this this thing dies in hot temps. 

Edited by alexisj9
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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
2 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Some are using the argument that compared to cancer Corvi19 is not a serious killer. Therefore it is a complete bore and nothing of note. There are millions of people who die from various causes every year. But we do not want the many millions with underlying health problems to go sooner due to this virus?

Exactly what I have been saying to others who have cancer patient relatives. It's about managing their expectations and also their emotions as they want to be free of one disease but we don't want them to walk into another. It's a very difficult "tightrope" in my experience with my family. Is was also implying that we shouldn't ignore other illnesses just because this one is at the forefront for now.

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Isn't that a warm area climate wise, I don't like this, dheli and Jerusalem, I don't this this thing dies in hot temps. 

There have been various temperatures quoted concerning killing the virus. One as low as 27c. If that was the case why doesn’t it die as soon as it hits the human body (37c)? 

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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)

A second case confirmed on RATP, the Paris transport network - the first was a ticket agent, this new one is a bus driver.

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26 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I believe the term that was used was severe or critical, my guess is what Italy is saying 10% would equate to those at the critical level that need intensive care, as opposed to the severe term which I believe roughly equates to hospitalization. 

It is of course quite possible that there are currently 2 strains of this going around, as the results from SK are nowhere near as severe as what is being seen currently in Europe in terms of numbers. I know some scientists have been already speculating this to be the case.

Well, all you can really go by for overall data is the BNO tracker etc, and they list the cases as serious for Italy. So I take from that, that serious is not as bad as critical, but the serious cases appear to be in ICU (according to that Italian doctor anyway). Obviously not 100% guaranteed fact either way, buts its all we have to go on.

To a "degree" at least, the data is always going to be skewed at this stage. You know how many are infected, and you dont know the full demographics of it. Even 10% is obviously not good, but if that is skewed by the location or age etc, then that doesnt equate to 10% of all cases. It could of course be worse though, but only time will tell.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
10 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Isn't that a warm area climate wise, I don't like this, dheli and Jerusalem, I don't this this thing dies in hot temps. 

I thought the same thing.

5 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

A second case confirmed on RATP, the Paris transport network - the first was a ticket agent, this new one is a bus driver.

Oh i don't like the sound of THAT!

Handing over money to people all day, not good.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I thought the same thing.

Oh i don't like the sound of THAT!

Handing over money to people all day, not good.

In Val-de-Marne a bit away from the centre of Paris itself and close to Créteil where there have been other cases nearby. Still worrying for folks up there though.

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Posted
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sun in winter; warm and bright otherwise; not a big storm fan
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
3 hours ago, matty40s said:

Were they singing the same or different songs?

One was singing something under his breath, but I didn't recognise the tune. The other wasn't, though he seemed to continue for just as long.

 

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Just regarding the first death in UK, the statement from the local NHS was fairly ambiguous, and doesnt necessarily suggest that the patient died of COVID. Obviously they could quite well of done (or it certainly would of made them worse), or they are deliberately being ambiguous for obvious reasons, or maybe the patient died anyway, but just happened to of tested positive. Just mentioning it thats all, I'm not suggesting either scenario as its pure speculation on my part, its just going by the reports, they weren't very well in the first place.

"Sadly, we can confirm that an older patient with underlying health conditions has died. The patient has previously been in and out of hospital for non-coronavirus reasons, but on this occasion was admitted and last night tested positive for coronavirus."

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
23 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Some are using the argument that compared to cancer Corvi19 is not a serious killer. Therefore it is a complete bore and nothing of note. There are millions of people who die from various causes every year. But we do not want the many millions with underlying health problems to go sooner due to this virus?

The world would not be as concerned about it if it were nothing to worry about. For goodness sake, Chine locked down millions of people, and they are not well known for looking after their own people.

There is fire with this smoke, people need to be vigilant and not dismissive, also not over the top. but declaring there is nothing wrong is the opposite end of the hysteria scale to full blown panic, it's not the true register

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
2 hours ago, Dami said:

yes! I had one flu jab and  had a nasty illness that lasted almost 2 weeks and made me feel like shattered for a week more. Never had another jab.

That's just your immune system firing up and going to work on the inactive (aka dead) virus.  Sometimes it'll result in fatigue/muscle pain and very, very rarely a fever.  But it's not the jab contents itself that's affecting you, it's your immune system get a bit 'over enthusiastic'  

Edited by Ryukai
What is Spelling!
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
18 minutes ago, Snipper said:

There have been various temperatures quoted concerning killing the virus. One as low as 27c. If that was the case why doesn’t it die as soon as it hits the human body (37c)? 

I believe the figure I've heard is 56c. Of course once you get higher temperatures towards the 30s the theory is it should become less effective at being able to transfer and survive without having a host so to speak. It won't stop it totally but it will hopefully limit it. I think most flu like virus are similar in that respect, at least the corona group, but we clearly don't know 100% yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I thought the same thing.

Oh i don't like the sound of THAT!

Handing over money to people all day, not good.

Not at this time of year, for example temperatures are roughly 12-15c at the moment, not that much different from the UK in a SW airflow for example.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
9 minutes ago, emax said:

Just regarding the first death in UK, the statement from the local NHS was fairly ambiguous, and doesnt necessarily suggest that the patient died of COVID. Obviously they could quite well of done (or it certainly would of made them worse), or they are deliberately being ambiguous for obvious reasons, or maybe the patient died anyway, but just happened to of tested positive. Just mentioning it thats all, I'm not suggesting either scenario as its pure speculation on my part, its just going by the reports, they weren't very well in the first place.

"Sadly, we can confirm that an older patient with underlying health conditions has died. The patient has previously been in and out of hospital for non-coronavirus reasons, but on this occasion was admitted and last night tested positive for coronavirus."

I can't imagine having the virus exactly helped much. Sounds like to me they may have been struggling anyway but the COVID finished the job. Much like when people with AIDS often die from a respiratory issue such as a version of the flu, etc, even though clearly everything was wasting away anyway even before the finishing problem.

However as you say we can really only speculate, I suspect alot of people who do die from this will be in a similar boat, with already weakened systems.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Alsace looks like turning into a horror show .

86 cases now . And also more across France with a link to that religious festival .

Macron needs to lock down that area  and make sure everyone who attended self isolates .

Something has gone seriously wrong at that religious festival . 

According to wiki it's high Roman-Catholic.  Any idea if there a mass communion type thing where they share a single cup that just gets refilled???

It would only take one person early on with the virus to drink from the cup, then everyone further down the line will be directly exposed.

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4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I believe the figure I've heard is 56c. Of course once you get higher temperatures towards the 30s the theory is it should become less effective at being able to transfer and survive without having a host so to speak. It won't stop it totally but it will hopefully limit it. I think most flu like virus are similar in that respect, at least the corona group, but we clearly don't know 100% yet.

I believe UV rays also kill viruses, but from what I've read, it is UVC rays that are the best at this (more dangerous, but dont reach the earth). However, UVA+B rays apparently do help to kill viruses too, so it might be sunlight that helps more or just as much as the temperature?

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8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I can't imagine having the virus exactly helped much. Sounds like to me they may have been struggling anyway but the COVID finished the job. Much like when people with AIDS often die from a respiratory issue such as a version of the flu, etc, even though clearly everything was wasting away anyway even before the finishing problem.

However as you say we can really only speculate, I suspect alot of people who do die from this will be in a similar boat, with already weakened systems.

I totally agree. I guess my point (whether true or not) was that a bog standard common cold could easily finish someone off who had severe underlying health problems. Its only one death (in terms of data prediction, not the loss of life), so you cant really extrapolate anything from that, but you can bet it will cause even more panic now the first death has occurred, whatever the cause of death might of been. (add on- I'm sure they'll eventually release the cause of death, but probably not for a while, I'm just jumping ahead so to speak)

Edited by emax
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10 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

According to wiki it's high Roman-Catholic.  Any idea if there a mass communion type thing where they share a single cup that just gets refilled???

It would only take one person early on with the virus to drink from the cup, then everyone further down the line will be directly exposed.

This reminds me of the old Knight from Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade "choose wisely, the true grail will bring you life, the false grail, will take it from you!"

 

Im in no way making fun of this, so dont all jump on me, but I think a bit of light humour isnt a bad thing.

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