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Novel Coronavirus – China


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36 minutes ago, thundercrazy said:

I am certainly no expert so please don't shoot me down, a genuine question. 

If there are currently two different strains of this virus circulating and you contract and recover from one of them would you be immune to the other?

If not then would that suggest there lies the possibility of a second round for some?

Difficult one to answer without published research but the principle difference between the two strains is just a single amino acid.  There will be other mutations as well, but the likelihood would be that at the moment, if your immune system raises antibodies to one strain, then some of those antibodies will probably recognise the other strain.  

For those interested, these two strains the media are referring too are described in an excellent link by Donegal

22 hours ago, Donegal said:

There are two strains in circulation. The more aggressive type is thought to have hit wuhan hardest but seems to be becoming less prevelant than the milder one. 

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ACADEMIC.OUP.COM

ABSTRACT. The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic started in late December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and has since impacted a large portion of China...

 

 

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Can I just say huge credit to all those in here who have talked so openly and bravely  about issues that often don’t get discussed in these types of forums . And also to thank all the members who

Okay, there appears to be a couple of ideas circulating on the forum which people may be getting carried away with? I understand why people are running with them, because it creates the idea that

Can we drop the conspiracy and misinformation type stuff in here please - we all have a responsibility not to spread that kind of thing, as well as the virus. In the real world, wash your hands!

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5 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Whilst vitamin D shortage is a hazard of living in a northerly latitude, so deficits are bound to be a problem, you can obtain more than enough vitamin C from eating fruit & vegetables, drinking fruit juice...

As for getting your doctor to prescribe vit-D supplements, most supermarkets (not health-food shops!) have them on-sale for less than the cost of a prescription...but without any of the hassle...?

Didn't know that haha, I will grab some at the weekend!

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32 minutes ago, thundercrazy said:

Well I wish I hadn't asked now, could that explain the higher fatality rate currently seen in some areas and why the WHO have increased the estimated fatality rate to 3.4%?

As I understand it the 3.4% is not a prediction by the WHO, it is them simply reporting that of the confirmed cases so far, 3.4% have died. Media have then taken that statement as confirmation of a 3.4% mortality rate. 

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Taken from The Lancet and Vox a few weeks back.

"Even more intriguing, the first known patient — represented in the blue bar on the left in this graph — also had no market exposure. And that person became ill on December 1, nearly two weeks earlier than Wuhan health authorities had suggested about the first case. The study also reports, “No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases.” So not only did a sizable portion of the early cases have no market link, the first known patient didn’t either — and no one knows how that person became infected.

This indicates spread of the virus in Wuhan was likely happening months sooner, as early as October, Daniel Lucey, an infectious diseases physician and adjunct professor of infectious diseases at Georgetown University Medical Center, told Vox."

 

Absolutely within the realms of possibility that infected people from Wuhan and beyond could have travelled globally to and from cities including London before the turn of the year.

Edited by Azazel
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30 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

The figures given by the CMO were for the UK , 1% probably less.

I will go with what he says.

Yes, I think that is correct, I hope that is correct.

What i was saying is that in the next few weeks the raw data may look much worse than the reality, if the US have a large number of unrecorded mild cases.

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27 minutes ago, Azazel said:

As speculated earlier in the thread by myself and others, Covid has actually been silently circulating the country since probably late last year (November being an estimate).

It's impossible to tell whether we have already had it or not, short of having blood-work done. 

The virus you describe sounds kind of similar to another poster's experience re. "pain above the nose" (likely sinus pressure) - however sneezing, runny nose and sore throat sounds more like a bad cold. 

In conclusion, it's very unlikely to have been the coronavirus, however it's not impossible.

I doubt that to be honest, if numerous people had already had it in the UK it would've been picked up fairly quickly as being different from season flu, colds etc.It might have been the latter part of last year when it started circulating in China but if people in the UK had it before New year it would've likely been very low numbers.The NHS would've noticed a spike in deaths amongst older people if it had already been widespread here.

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4 minutes ago, swebby said:

Yes, I think that is correct, I hope that is correct.

What i was saying is that in the next few weeks the raw data may look much worse than the reality, if the US have a large number of unrecorded mild cases.

I'm wondering what impact obesity will have on the CFR. Not seen any mention yet .. does China even have an obesity problem ?

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4 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

I doubt that to be honest, if numerous people had already had it in the UK it would've been picked up fairly quickly as being different from season flu, colds etc.It might have been the latter part of last year when it started circulating in China but if people in the UK had it before New year it would've likely been very low numbers.The NHS would've noticed a spike in deaths amongst older people if it had already been widespread here.

Not doubting this, but it presents itself in a manner very similar to the seasonal flu and colds - does anyone have any data on elderly deaths for late last year owing to respiratory illness? I'll try and research it if I can.

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5 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I'm wondering what impact obesity will have on the CFR. Not seen any mention yet .. does China even have an obesity problem ?

Not seen anything either, but it is well documented that obesity does impair lung function. Could well be an underlying condition which would affect outcomes.

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44 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I believe there is an L strain and an S strain? Not sure which is the more severe but if I remember rightly, they reported that the more severe strain was less common and the milder strain was more infectious and outpacing the other.

It would suggest you can be infected twice, once by the two different strains. I believe a person was tested in China or Japan and found to have both strains.

It is a possibility, but if the patient had come from Wuhan, then they may have more likely been infected with both at the same time, rather than one then a gap to the other.  When your body raises antibodies to a virus, it is likely that it makes more than a single type, with each type probably recognising a different part of the virus.  This confers some durability in historic immunity although a virus will eventually evolve to evade this.

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

This is out of a lab IMO..

LOTS of rumours this is going to come out soon.

Not good, if true.

wcpat6_edited_social_media.jpg
FULLFACT.ORG

A new article written by Chinese scientists does not prove that the 2019 coronavirus outbreak came from bats in a government laboratory.

 

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444 cases in Germany now.

Also seen some sources I don't know whether its confirmed or not that one of the Canary Wharf employee has tested positive with covid-19!!

*Walter [email protected]·37m

$HSBC CONFIRMS ONE EMPLOYEE IN LONDON CANARY WHARF OFFICE HAS BEEN DIAGNOSED WITH COVID-19

They are evacuating the floor as well.

The Guardian

@guardian·13m

HSBC evacuates floor of Canary Wharf after coronavirus test

 

Edited by pip22
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11 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I'm wondering what impact obesity will have on the CFR. Not seen any mention yet .. does China even have an obesity problem ?

Obesity means you are more likely to be suffering from one of the at risk ailments like type II diabetes, hypertension or heart disease.  Not sure if China has an issue or not but we know the US does and this is probably going to play a role. 

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1 minute ago, snefnug said:
wcpat6_edited_social_media.jpg
FULLFACT.ORG

A new article written by Chinese scientists does not prove that the 2019 coronavirus outbreak came from bats in a government laboratory.

 

I wouldnt trust anything coming from chinese scientists, they are under the watchful eye of state apparatus.

 

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Since Diana we seem to live in an age where conspiracy theories do the rounds .

I really don’t believe this is some Lab developed virus .

And if you’re going to be developing some killer virus you’re not going to be wasting time doing that with one that shows the current fatality rates .

 

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20 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

I doubt that to be honest, if numerous people had already had it in the UK it would've been picked up fairly quickly as being different from season flu, colds etc.It might have been the latter part of last year when it started circulating in China but if people in the UK had it before New year it would've likely been very low numbers.The NHS would've noticed a spike in deaths amongst older people if it had already been widespread here.

There was in October thought to be early seasonal flu. But did they have flu. 

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Since Diana we seem to live in an age where conspiracy theories do the rounds .

I really don’t believe this is some Lab developed virus .

And if you’re going to be developing some killer virus you’re not going to be wasting time doing that with one that shows the current fatality rates .

 

Perhaps it escaped by accident.

Bit of a coincidence their main bio weapons lab is in the city at the heart of the outbreak.

I don't believe in coincidences, or at the very least, they make me suspicious.

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I wouldnt trust anything coming from chinese scientists, they are under the watchful eye of state apparatus.

 

I get the concern, but from the perspective"of a virus (not that they have a perspective) the whole world is a laboratory. Every cell it infects, of every host it is in, presents multiple opportunities to mutate. Sooner or later, one of those mutations means it can spread through a new host.  NB-  If you are thinking this was made intentionally as some sort of bio-weapon, forget it. Firstly, it's not a very good bio-weapon, secondly, the changes in it's protein coat are apparently not something anyone would make if they were looking to make a bio-weapon.  In short, this is one of natures own.

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12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Since Diana we seem to live in an age where conspiracy theories do the rounds .

I really don’t believe this is some Lab developed virus .

And if you’re going to be developing some killer virus you’re not going to be wasting time doing that with one that shows the current fatality rates .

 

Couldn't agree more. The only link between the lab and this is bat shyt crazy 

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Only God knows what's the true number of infected in Iran. 107 deaths and 3,500 cases there so far. But I suspect there is alot more than that by now. It is a mystery who's first carried it there.

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This on the BBC:

Understanding how the coronavirus is mutating is vital.

A team of Chinese scientists have effectively played a complex game of “genetic spot the difference” with 103 coronavirus samples.

Their findings suggest there are two distinct “strains” of the virus, but what this means is speculation.

The researchers have found differences in the genetic code of the two strains, but they do not show this alters the behaviour of the virus.

They do not prove one is “more aggressive” than the other, as has been reported.

That will require further experiments and the researchers themselves say the amount of data they have to work with is “still very limited”.

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More and more cases in France are now being linked to that Mulhouse religious festival in Alsace .

And these are now popping up in areas not even close to that area .

The latest two in the Lot and Garonne dept.

Over 2000 people apparently attended that festival . There are now 21 cases just in the Alsace region connected to that .

 

 

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