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Novel Coronavirus – China


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5 minutes ago, thundercrazy said:

Yes and if unable to get care then the 3.4% CFR goes out the window! This really is time to be concerned and we all need to try and do our bit to try and limit the spread, but it may not be that simple.

If folk do not take this serious enough then 'slowing peak infection' goes out of the window!

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Can I just say huge credit to all those in here who have talked so openly and bravely  about issues that often don’t get discussed in these types of forums . And also to thank all the members who

Okay, there appears to be a couple of ideas circulating on the forum which people may be getting carried away with? I understand why people are running with them, because it creates the idea that

Can we drop the conspiracy and misinformation type stuff in here please - we all have a responsibility not to spread that kind of thing, as well as the virus. In the real world, wash your hands!

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56 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well, its here in Oldham now so from this moment on i will be really careful about how i travel around town,esp public transport.I will also use  disposable gloves at places like cashpoints..

People might think im going OTT but as a diabetes sufferer i cant afford to take chances.

Didn't that boat sail 2 weeks ago or was the case;

1/ Just arrived in oldham 20 mins before being hospitalised

2/ had self quarantined from the moment they were infected

otherwise they have been spreading/shedding virus since infection and up until the point of isolation surely?

And what of the folk they infected whilst at large?

And what of the folk those infected folk infected before patient zero was hospitalised?

 

Think of 'Le Strange's Vault' in Gringotts Bank and that 'doubling' silverware?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

The Italian figures look grim. Serious Q posed here, from me, probably more to 'our' expats on here. Granted N Italy aint France.

If the affected regions of N Italy are mainly rural, made up of older generation, do you think there's a likelihood 'most' wouldnt even go to a local doctor for any disease symptoms, let alone relatively new CV? Would a lot of that region's population not even have access to decent healthcare 'education'? 

So, any symptoms of onset of CV they probably would've just brushed it off as cold plus fever, but by the time they got seriously ill it was too late.

The reason i mention this is where we go on The Algarve a few years ago a couple of local Portuguese guys, early 60s in age, who we'd befriended over the years in a popular bar, on many visits, passed away within a few months of each other. One had bowel cancer, the other lung cancer. Their friends had told us that neither of them had visited their doc until it was far far too late, as many in rural Portugal just dont go to the docs.

So, in rural N Italy once a fair proportion ignore symptoms then suddenly it spreads v quickly. Just a thought.

That’s a good point BB . That certainly could be a factor in how the virus spread so quickly . If people didn’t alert the authorities early then they’d probably already be showing severe symptoms and very contagious by the time they got to hospital.

Edited by nick sussex
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52 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

It's a bit different here in France. People go to the doctor for everything and you never leave without a prescription for something! My doctor has an open surgery from 0800 to 1200 on a Monday (yes, just drop in and be seen) and he often over runs by an hour or so after midday. He then does house calls between 1200 and 2000. More to the point, he always has time for you. I'm afraid I have no idea about Italy - maybe there is more of a resistance to medical intervention among the elderly - anyone know?

Yes, I have had experience of good French medical care.

And no, I know nothing about the Italian circumstances and would't presume to do so.

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3 minutes ago, ciel said:

 

And no, I know nothing about the Italian circumstances and would't presume to do so.

Nor do I, but i was just asking.

The more worrying aspect about both France and Italy is that their healthcare systems are known as being amongst the best in Europe, i believe; yet both are showing concerning numbers.

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Still seeing people insisting this is scaremongering by the media. I can't get my head around that. All you have to do is to look to Italy to see what's happening in a European country with a health service. (The US is a whole other kettle of fish.)

Looking ahead to when this crisis is finally over, for those of us who get that far... it's going to change everyone. Profoundly, deeply and lastingly. I don't know exactly how, nobody does, but it can hardly leave people unaffected. I guess the nearest experience in Europe in the last half-century would be those who lived through the Siege of Sarajevo. For Western Europe, probably only those in their 80s or above who remember WW2 will have anything to compare.

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34 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

20% chance of becoming seriously ill.

Thats really high.

Put it this way for Italy, they have a population of 27,million with 3 thousand infected cases. Things may change, but those are the current numbers.

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Just now, Bristle boy said:

Nor do I, but i was just asking.

The more worrying aspect about both France and Italy is that their healthcare systems are known as being amongst the best in Europe, i believe.

The French are renowned hypochondriacs! And the doctors love dishing out the pills!

Whats different in France in particular is supermarkets aren’t allowed to sell painkillers or any sorts of medicines .

You have to go the pharmacy , some big shopping complexes do have say a pharmacy but it’s never attached to a supermarket .

I think this was done to help preserve pharmacies in smaller towns and villages .

Also you can’t buy any cigs in supermarkets , again that was to keep tabacs open.

 

 

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43 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

20% chance of becoming seriously ill.

Thats really high.

Yes, I'm delighted to know that 80% will only have mild symptoms (that's my children/grandchildren, hopefully) but mild or not they are still potential infection carriers to the more vulnerable age groups (me and the wife). 

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Also you can’t buy any cigs in supermarkets , again that was to keep tabacs open.

Dont I know it lol. Spent about an hour driving round the villiages near La Ferte-Alais trying to find a tabac. There's a big supermarket just down the road from the airport, but all that did was get me lunch haha.

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5 hours ago, Arctic Hare said:

Re face-touching, I saw something useful on Twitter. (I know, these really are the End Times!) It was from an immunosuppressed person who's always had to be careful about that, and she pointed out that putting a little moisturiser on straight after washing should cut down on the irritating little facial itches that prompt you to scratch your face. It works.

Though I will say I'm pretty concerned about when hay fever season starts later in the spring. Loads of people sneezing all over the place.

That was my point about Hay fever, I can't help but scratch my eyes, at the min, I don't think this would work with, and the med that did work, has been changed to a different steroid that is not working, will go doctors when I'm back out and about, and try and sort it. 

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Cases in France are now up to 285 .

10 new ones reported in Marseille . The government has now requisitioned all face masks .

To make sure there are sufficient supplies for medical workers and those infected .

 

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39 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Put it this way for Italy, they have a population of 27,million with 3 thousand infected cases. Things may change, but those are the current numbers.

I like the optimism however total recovered so far 276, new cases today alone 587.

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25 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Cases in France are now up to 285 .

10 new ones reported in Marseille . The government has now requisitioned all face masks .

To make sure there are sufficient supplies for medical workers and those infected .

 

Is there much community transmission with the French cases?

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6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looks like the Coronavirus was the final straw for FlyBe.

Thats a huge blow to regional airports .

Yup, been hearing reports all day. Aircraft blocked in, and passengers stuck, another one to sadly bite the dust!

Personally, I think COVID was just a good reason to go under. They would likely have gone under anyway, but COVID was just the icing on the cake.

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1 minute ago, Donegal said:

Is there much community transmission with the French cases?

The last available data I saw showed that 75% of cases could be linked to either people who had travelled to a hotspot or who had contact with them .

The other 25% are a mix of still being investigated and where no known connection could be made .

There are concerns now though over an outbreak of cases linked to those who attended a religious festival in the Alsace .

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11 minutes ago, thundercrazy said:

I like the optimism however total recovered so far 276, new cases today alone 587.

Recovered cases is a bit of an awkward data set, as illnesses are still ongoing. I guess ideally you would want to go back a week or so, and pick the cases that where confirmed then, and how many of those cases have recovered so far.   

It can certainly give a "rough" idea of how long it takes to recover though, on average.

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Confirmed cases in France have multiplied by 10 in just over a week .

Before then it had been quite stable for several weeks . The situation in Italy has really I think now finished any chance of containment across Europe .

That was going to be very difficult anyway but effectively now the country to watch is no longer China.

Italy looks in a desperate situation now sadly .

 

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5 minutes ago, emax said:

Recovered cases is a bit of an awkward data set, as illnesses are still ongoing. I guess ideally you would want to go back a week or so, and pick the cases that where confirmed then, and how many of those cases have recovered so far.   

It can certainly give a "rough" idea of how long it takes to recover though, on average.

Fully understand that, my response was regarding the comment of only 3000 cases compared to the population. An increase of nearly 600 in a day is significant, particularly when only 276 have recovered so far from the start of the outbreak in Italy. 

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As our own C.M.O. makes plain we will not 'escape' infection merely 'slow' infection?

It is a 'Novel' virus.

Only when we have an inoculation against it will we possibly be safe from infection around it (as safe as we are around 'flu' when we're flu jabbed?) but that appear a long way off?

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