Novel Coronavirus – China

[Azazel]

I think it's very likely the virus is already in the UK.

The stats look a bit concerning but we have to remember these are only confirmed cases from people who sought medical attention. Many people will have contracted the virus and rode it out at home with no need to visit a hospital/doctor.

[DAVID SNOW]

Anyone work in the NHS?

Have hospitals been put on 'alert' or whatever the phrase is, if there is a chance of a serious outbreak?

Or not....

[Gray-Wolf]

Here is a model of the spread if 'R' =2.5

.....as you can see the Global population is 100% infected by September of this year

So would you let your population know such info or would it drive 'undesirable' outcomes if you did?

 

[Azazel]

6 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Anyone work in the NHS?

Have hospitals been put on 'alert' or whatever the phrase is, if there is a chance of a serious outbreak?

Or not....

My other half is a frailty practitioner in a hospital and she hasn't been told anything - I imagine it's different for those in A&E etc though.

[Snow Queen one]

Grey wolf that chart is very scary.  Let's hope it does not get that bad

[Methuselah]

But any novel infection, when introduced into a 'virgin' population, will spread exponentially...But that doesn't mean that it'll infect everyone...?

[4wd]

38 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

But any novel infection, when introduced into a 'virgin' population, will spread exponentially...But that doesn't mean that it'll infect everyone...?

Naive population would be better term.
In reality assuming no vaccine is produced dramatically change the odds the infection spread very rapidly at first, however various mutations spring up with different severity.
The more severe versions make the host so unwell they stay home and might die, only immediate family are at special risk.
The less severe mutations people don't die and are unwell for a shorter period. They are more likely to spread the less deadly version. They recover and are largely immune form similar strains including the most serious versions.

This gives a natural selection pressure towards milder strain as the number of potential hosts suddenly falls below thresholds just as should happen with vaccination if it's done effectively

[Gray-Wolf]

39 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

But any novel infection, when introduced into a 'virgin' population, will spread exponentially...But that doesn't mean that it'll infect everyone...?

I do not know about that Pete?

We, as you rightly say, are a Virgin population never having been exposed to the virus before so the odds are that when you encounter it you will play host to it?

Remember our best info is that only 25% of those contracting it have issues from it so you might have it and think it just a sniffle?

But then surely the folk who have had it and recovered now have some level of protection from 'fighting it'? That said I never seem to have developed a defense from the more common corona virus that gives us our 'common cold'?

Then there is 'mutation' of the virus. It does not do the virus any good to have a high mortality rate.If the name of the game is to reproduce then you need 'hosts' in which to multiply so eventually most all infections from 2019-nCoV will be merely a nuisance and not deadly?

In my past my fear was always centred around the response of society when we hit peak infection rates and Hospitals/morgues are over run with folk? I just hope we do not lose our collective lemon and so see unnecessary events taking place?

[cyclonic happiness]

As far as coincidences go.....this has to be up there with the most dodgy

This is from November 2019...

 

 

Pandemic simulation exercise spotlights massive preparedness gap | Hub

HUB.JHU.EDU

---

Event 201 simulation hosted by university's Center for Health Security envisions a fast-spreading coronavirus with a devastating impact

 

[Snipper]

Latest from Twitter

[4wd]

57 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Latest from Twitter

Is that Mytholmroyd next week or now?

[DAVID SNOW]

3 hours ago, Azazel said:

My other half is a frailty practitioner in a hospital and she hasn't been told anything - I imagine it's different for those in A&E etc though.

Thanks for the reply.

[Snipper]

27 minutes ago, 4wd said:

“Is that Mytholmroyd next week or now?”

Went through there years ago and it looks like it hasn’t changed.

 

[Spikecollie]

8 hours ago, General Cluster said:

I wonder how many folks sterilise their gardening implements, prior to use? Or sterilise the whole garden even? Or spray chemicals on food-products, prior to purchase?

Hand-washing is of course important; but the concept of complete biological isolation? Come-on peeps, we'd have no immunity whatsoever, were to conduct our daily lives from inside an isolation tent?

Honestly, some of this is getting reminiscent of those 'can I catch AIDS from a door handle?' fears, the media helped stoke, back in the 1980s...

PS: I'm off to the farm again, tomorrow!

Us gardeners are a manky bunch! The never quite free of soil finger nails, the never peeled and washed in cold water organic produce, the contents of my compost heap which I won't go into detail about - but that's living and healthy living at that -ah and having a dog. I'm pretty sure my immune system is put to its best uses and I benefit from that - I still have the dreaded allergy issues but they are inherited rather than nurtured.

I'm really not terribly worried about this outbreak. I am worried about the effect of mis-information especially via social media and the reactions that will cause in people. There are a lot of ways to die and I'm pretty sure my metal, motorised box that I have to climb every day among poorly trained, distracted and debilitated fellow road users is far more of a threat.

[cheeky_monkey]

2 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

 

I'm really not terribly worried about this outbreak. I am worried about the effect of mis-information especially via social media and the reactions that will cause in people. There are a lot of ways to die and I'm pretty sure my metal, motorised box that I have to climb every day among poorly trained, distracted and debilitated fellow road users is far more of a threat.

Agreed mortality rates are low in comparison to say just regular flu virus..seems only those with existing respiratory problems are vulnerable..but judging by social media the end of the world is at hand..if this were to have happen 30 years ago it wouldn't even been in the news? 

[Spikecollie]

11 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Agreed mortality rates are low in comparison to say just regular flu virus..seems only those with existing respiratory problems are vulnerable..but judging by social media the end of the world is at hand..if this were to have happen 30 years ago it wouldn't even been in the news? 

Very probably not! A little item, if that, on the 9 o'clock news. People need to remember that the (needless) stress and anxiety caused by over inflated news stories has the capacity to make them sick, physically as well as mentally. I don't do Twitter, FB or any of the other offending items - mainly because I couldn't stand the hail of contacts and information that would be mostly unwanted but also because of the dubious quality of most of it. And of course because too many of my least favourite political figures seem to revel in it 

[feb1991blizzard]

 

[Frost HoIIow]

23 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Very probably not! A little item, if that, on the 9 o'clock news. People need to remember that the (needless) stress and anxiety caused by over inflated news stories has the capacity to make them sick, physically as well as mentally. I don't do Twitter, FB or any of the other offending items - mainly because I couldn't stand the hail of contacts and information that would be mostly unwanted but also because of the dubious quality of most of it. And of course because too many of my least favourite political figures seem to revel in it 

Indeed. I'm not on FB, Twitter or anything like them. Most people on them are addicted to getting likes & comments & pretending their life is better than it really is. I don't read the news very often either. I'm convinced the rise in anxiety & other less severe mental health conditions are to do with reading too much information that's now available to us these days. We did not evolve for our brains to be bombarded like we are now. Life was far simpler just 20-25 years ago.

Edited January 27, 2020 by Frost HoIIow

[Daniel*]

46 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Agreed mortality rates are low in comparison to say just regular flu virus..seems only those with existing respiratory problems are vulnerable..but judging by social media the end of the world is at hand..if this were to have happen 30 years ago it wouldn't even been in the news? 

Some of you folk don’t understand what mortality rate is, it is expressed as a percentage the deceased of total infected has nothing to do with number of deaths that does not tell you much unless you see how many are infected. The mortality rate is generally believed to be 1-3% the common flu is 0.1%, this is significantly more deadly. One should also remember China’s numbers from SARS was 6% mortality rate but scientists actually came to the conclusion it was around 15%, we do not really know much about this virus and its severity. People are jumping to conclusions on both sides. 

[Spikecollie]

28 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Some of you folk don’t understand what mortality rate is, it is expressed as a percentage the deceased of total infected has nothing to do with number of deaths that does not tell you much unless you see how many are infected. The mortality rate is generally believed to be 1-3% the common flu is 0.1%, this is significantly more deadly. One should also remember China’s numbers from SARS was 6% mortality rate but scientists actually came to the conclusion it was around 15%, we do not really know much about this virus and its severity. People are jumping to conclusions on both sides. 

I'm certainly not jumping to ny conclusions, just not worrying about something that is actually impossible to worry about because I don't have any concrete facts. I am suggesting that others do the same which is difficult for some because they are bombarded with information (much of it of dubious quality) about something they and their bombadiiers know little about.

Another little snippet! How about this quote by itself: "Prostate overtakes breast a smost common cancer" - oh no, a lot of men are going to start dying or getting sick! What's the cause - diet, environment, underpants? No - just the fact that more men are getting tested and going on to lead happy, normal lives after diagnosis and treatment, if needed...

Edited January 27, 2020 by Spikecollie

[fujita5]

A health analyst on BBC news earlier was explaining the reproduction rate numbers and said it's bad, and containment is not going to work. Initially it was thought to be a 3.5 but it's more likely a 2.8, but that is still bad enough to become pandemic. He suggested the WHO should issue a global warning.

We'll see what happens over the coming few days, if it's as contagious as they think and can be passed on before symptoms show, then it will begin cropping up all over the place.

[Snipper]

[Gray-Wolf]

Again I would agree with upthread that the bigger threat comes from people being daft about this

As an unprotected population we will ALL have played host to the virus by late September if R=2.5

It is far higher than 2.5

Get over yourself if you think you can avoid this ,you really can't if the numbers are as we are finding

Better just take your chances and hope you are in the whopping 3/4's that do not really suffer with it?

I honestly believe our biggest threat (bigger than the 1 in 4 of it being real bad for you?) comes from the comrades all around you and how they will react (esp. if we see 'max infection rates' in May or earlier?)

If you need to 'hunker down' it will be over this period & more for folk in major population centres?

We've all had a cold. This is just that but a bit naughtier. Let's not wreck the joint just because things stop working for a bit? 3 weeks food/access to clean water, battery radio (& batteries) Torch & first aid kit.....'taint that much of an 'insurance ' lay out' is it?

Edited January 27, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Methuselah]

Could this be the first pandemic that infects each and every one of us, worldwide?

I doubt it very much...Some lucky buggers will have inborn immunity. Just as they do with Plague, Ebola, Spanish flu, Lassa fever, Marburgh...you name it?

[Gray-Wolf]

4 hours ago, 4wd said:

Is that Mytholmroyd next week or now?

I'm kinda hoping that, like you , we are far enough removed from where the real madness will go in to avoid it?

Were I in Central M/cr,Leeds,Bradford or similar I'd be pretty freaked (In the 80's squat in Hulme we fitted iron bars over the frontage windows and had a metal 'double door'....... but then it was a 'Deck Access' flat so we only had to fortify the frontage?)

I am content that we all get it, I've been fretting over such since my time caring for Luke.Remember H1N1 took both my Dad and Luke and left me with a 'post viral syndrome' so my fears across those years, to me, were founded

Your experience is your experience but please allow me mine without criticism (or hints of veiled criticism of my concerns?)