Novel Coronavirus – China

[swebby]

36 minutes ago, Beanz said:

 

Interesting more recent analysis from the NEJM

"On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.  In another article in the Journal, Guan et al report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."

 

 

 

That's the important question. The WHO did not seem very bull'ish on the idea that there are a lot of unreported cases in China. Everyone seems to fumbling around in the dark on this one and the random testing being done by the NHS may prove informative. Hopefully it is the case and a mortality of 0.1% would be a result.

[emax]

1 hour ago, Gael_Force said:

He would have been nowhere near confirmed cases but it is an appalling example of defective leadership.

Whatever the standard of reporting, he may well have inadvertently shaken hands with someone asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic. This could happen to anyone, anywhere ... telling the public not to shake hands is a pointless exercise if the PM is not going to promote and adhere to advice.

Sorry Jeremy! Perhaps everyone should cut their hands off to be sure? lol

Where has the government said that people should not shake hands? Or shall we just carry on making up false statements in order to make petty political points? This right here, is the social media problem!!!

[weirpig]

Very Impressed with my sons school   they constantly contact us  regarding any developments regarding the virus  and hold regular meetings to discuss what procedures will be implemented.  A link  which we were sent today.

https://www.tettenhallcollege.co.uk/media/news/article/296/Coronavirus-Updates

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[ThundersnowDays]

Why haven't they told us the locations of today's cases?

[emax]

4 minutes ago, ThundersnowDays said:

Why haven't they told us the locations of today's cases?

Give em time, blimey!

I'd be surprised if they are hiding locations, but even if they did, does it matter anyway?

[Summer Sun]

Of the 12 new cases announced today

8 travelled from Italy
1 travelled from Germany
1 travelled from Iran
1 travelled from Singapore
1 travelled from Japan

The patients are from; London, Hampshire, Northamptonshire, Bury, Wirral, Greater Manchester, Humberside & Kent

Edited March 3, 2020 by Summer Sun

[northwestsnow]

Wash hands is vital.

Still think people should start wearing masks, not to protect oneself, but to prevent oneself spreading it incase one has it.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Of the 12 new cases announced today

8 travelled from Italy
1 travelled from Germany
1 travelled from Iran
1 travelled from Singapore
1 travelled from Japan

The patients are from; London, Hampshire, Northamptonshire, Bury, Wirral, Greater Manchester, Humberside & Kent

People need to stop travelling to Italy unless urgent IMO..

[ThundersnowDays]

11 minutes ago, emax said:

Give em time, blimey!

I'd be surprised if they are hiding locations, but even if they did, does it matter anyway?

I was just wondering as they're normally in the 2pm update but obviously they were later today.

[emax]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

People need to stop travelling to Italy unless urgent IMO..

To be fair, it wont make a huge difference. The only way to stop the spread, would be to ban ALL international travel completely for several months. This wouldnt and shouldnt happen, but restricting flights to certain countries would and has only had a minor effect overall.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

20 minutes ago, emax said:

To be fair, it wont make a huge difference. The only way to stop the spread, would be to ban ALL international travel completely for several months. This wouldnt and shouldnt happen, but restricting flights to certain countries would and has only had a minor effect overall.

 

Why shouldn't it happen? so you are saying the free movement of people and the ibiza brigade's civil liberties come before peoples lives.

[Ross90]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Why shouldn't it happen? so you are saying the free movement of people and the ibiza brigade's civil liberties come before peoples lives.

You could look at it another way and say how much damage are the governments prepared to do to their own economies to try and stop something with a fairly low mortality rate... an overreaction by the gov could be as damaging to them politically as an under reaction.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Ross90 said:

You could look at it another way and say how much damage are the governments prepared to do to their own economies to try and stop something with a fairly low mortality rate... an overreaction by the gov could be as damaging to them politically as an under reaction.

If they would have just done something straight away though when we first knew about it, chances are we could have nipped it in the bud and may have only needed about 3 months worth of action - prevention is better than cure - now either way it is going to cost the world trillions of pounds because it will end up a long drawn out saga with ridiculous amounts spent on nurses, the money argument fr doing something now - that ship has sailed - but we could still save hundreds of millions of lives around the world.

[emax]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If they would have just done something straight away though when we first knew about it, chances are we could have nipped it in the bud and may have only needed about 3 months worth of action - prevention is better than cure - now either way it is going to cost the world trillions of pounds because it will end up a long drawn out saga with ridiculous amounts spent on nurses, the money argument fr doing something now - that ship has sailed - but we could still save hundreds of millions of lives around the world.

But do what exactly?

[Snipper]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If they would have just done something straight away though when we first knew about it, chances are we could have nipped it in the bud and may have only needed about 3 months worth of action - prevention is better than cure - now either way it is going to cost the world trillions of pounds because it will end up a long drawn out saga with ridiculous amounts spent on nurses, the money argument fr doing something now - that ship has sailed - but we could still save hundreds of millions of lives around the world.

So immediately do something when even now we don’t really know the facts?  Brilliant!  Which crystal ball do you use?

[feb1991blizzard]

Its no good coming the crystal ball argument, you were told on this forum weeks ago there was going to be millions and millions dead around the world, the overwhelming evidence from people who know what they are talking about is that this is going to be true.

[abruzzi spur]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Its no good coming the crystal ball argument, you were told on this forum weeks ago there was going to be millions and millions dead around the world, the overwhelming evidence from people who know what they are talking about is that this is going to be true.

Yes it's a big surprise this forum isn't cited much more often by those amateurs at the World Health Authority and Public Health England.

 

[emax]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its no good coming the crystal ball argument, you were told on this forum weeks ago there was going to be millions and millions dead around the world, the overwhelming evidence from people who know what they are talking about is that this is going to be true.

BUT DO WHAT?????????????????, jesus lol.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, emax said:

BUT DO WHAT?????????????????, jesus lol.

Stop all none essential travel right now.

[emax]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - because they do not care about peoples lives, they do not want train operators and bus companies profits down - simple.

You know they've already realised the info dont you????

[emax]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Stop all none essential travel right now.

AH, so its just non essential travel then? So all business etc can carry on as normal? 

[Ryukai]

9 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Perhaps they don't want us to know if there are any hot spots, or wide spread. 

They were posted on here after the post you quoted.  aka an hour ago  

Edited March 3, 2020 by Ryukai

[alexisj9]

53 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Of the 12 new cases announced today

8 travelled from Italy
1 travelled from Germany
1 travelled from Iran
1 travelled from Singapore
1 travelled from Japan

The patients are from; London, Hampshire, Northamptonshire, Bury, Wirral, Greater Manchester, Humberside & Kent

Oops I guess they have released the places, need to read ahead before commenting. 

[Summer Sun]

Maybe China has seen its peak now? Still early days though as folk return to work.