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Novel Coronavirus – China


Snipper

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Posted
  • Location: GU35, Bordon, East Hampshire
  • Location: GU35, Bordon, East Hampshire

The markets are creating a opportunity for low buy ins with their panic.  I predict there will be a whole new generation of millionaires within 18 months.  The proactive buyers will do a lot better than the reactive sellers.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I suppose thats why this is ringing alarm bells in my head, because we have some idea of how ensemble modelling works, and when you have an outlier or two, you wonder why. Its not impossible of course that they have spotted the correct conclusion to make, but it worries me.

Anyway, yesterday we had more deaths caused by Covid 19 than meningitis worldwide, but still a long way down the deadliest diseases. (EG WHO estimates 548 die a day from Norovirus, and TB/Hep B kills 3-4000 a day, or about 10x where we are at now. I hope we dont get there though.)

Epidemiology modeling is hopefully a little more straightforward than the fluid dynamics of an atmosphere. Hopefully......

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, Ryukai said:

I've had this weird idea circulating around in my head for a while now that the whole cytokine storm response thing is actually an evolutionary adaption to the survival of a species as a whole over the survival of the individual.

For instance, a species that develops a response where the immune system will self destruct and kill off an individual if it comes across an especially virulent virus that it can't get rid of, therefore sparing the species as a whole from said virus, would have a greater chance of survival as a species than one that never did.

I know I've read a few tweets and linked posts on this forums that have come from doctors that basically say that people are 'fine' for the most part, and then it's as if a switch has been flipped and the person suddenly worsens and dies within a few hours...

Just seams very strange to me, but then again I'm not a doctor so /shrug  

That’s a very interesting view .  To support that though you’d need all cases which had that cytokine storm to be tested to see if they had a more severe strain or if the bodies response was similar with key markers .

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
4 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

I've had this weird idea circulating around in my head for a while now that the whole cytokine storm response thing is actually an evolutionary adaption to the survival of a species as a whole over the survival of the individual.

For instance, a species that develops a response where the immune system will self destruct and kill off an individual if it comes across an especially virulent virus that it can't get rid of, therefore sparing the species as a whole from said virus, would have a greater chance of survival as a species than one that never did.

I know I've read a few tweets and linked posts on this forums that have come from doctors that basically say that people are 'fine' for the most part, and then it's as if a switch has been flipped and the person suddenly worsens and dies within a few hours...

Just seams very strange to me, but then again I'm not a doctor so /shrug  

Not weird, if something offers an advantage with genetic selection pressures, that thing is likely to be adopted.

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Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield
7 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Thought the potential was scary then but was not likely to evolve into the current situation.

My sentiments exactly.  I read through the first few pages of this thread earlier and in comparison to what to what is being posted now is mind blowing, and in such a short period of time.

Thank you for starting what has become such an important source of up to date factual information, this thread for me fills the gaps the news channels leave empty.

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

I really don’t think tweets like this are particularly helpful at this time. You just have to look at the replies to see that. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Just now, matt111 said:

I really don’t think tweets like this are particularly helpful at this time. You just have to look at the replies to see that. 

 

Thats quite tame compared to what he has tweeted in the past   

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Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL

The daily figures update is meant to be at 2pm isn't it?

The site is running slow but when I got on it still says updated 9am 11th March

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Just now, lottiekent said:

The daily figures update is meant to be at 2pm isn't it?

The site is running slow but when I got on it still says updated 9am 11th March

Its delayed  

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

The link on the tweet has been posted twice on here (the one from medium.com, not the other), but it's interesting and significant to see someone like Philip Lee (former Tory MP and also a GP) recommending the government read it. Basically, get your skates on.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
Just now, kold weather said:

Scotland upto 60 cases now, doubled overnight from what I hear... so thats 30 new cases just from Scotland.

Yesterday was 36 so an increase of 24 from yesterday

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Scotland upto 60 cases now, doubled overnight from what I hear... so thats 30 new cases just from Scotland.

Makes you wonder what the total for the UK will be~??

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Breaking: A number of Leicester City players have shown symptoms of coronavirus and have been kept away from the squad.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
4 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

The daily figures update is meant to be at 2pm isn't it?

The site is running slow but when I got on it still says updated 9am 11th March

If you'r looking at the gov website it tends to take a few hours to update there, they post the responses first on their twitter https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/with_replies

Nothing yet though.

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
On 09/03/2020 at 22:41, Allseasons-si said:

Never been to Austria and would like to but not having the cash limit's me to the peak district but still a nice place and it's on my doorstep

i am glad for them to get a transfer to Austria(a safer bet)and wish them well on there travels

as for the retirement couple,go for it,you only live once and i would do the same regardless of the circumstances,this is a one off lifetime event around the world,keep us informed Norrance of there travels

thanks.

 

One or two people asked how our neighbours are getting on in their round the world trip. The answer is unsurprisingly that they are home. Firstly Dubai airport stopped taking flights so they were to go direct to Kuala Lumpur. Then Vietnam closed their border so the Vietnam/Cambodia part was changed to Thailand. Fiji then notified them that  that part was a no no and NewZealand firstly then Australia brought in quarantines. They did have a debate as to whether they could self quarantine in the campervan they hired but eventually they had to concede defeat. Most of the travel companies and hotels etc they booked have been co-operative in allowing them to reschedule at a later date but one or two hotels didn't. 
Next worry for me (apart from the general worry about getting the illness as people who are getting on a bit) is our own trip to the USA and Canada scheduled for late May. Already thinking that it will not go ahead

Edit As for the skiers Austria was cancelled at the last minute so they are daily travelling up to Glenshee. Just as well there is decent snow up there now.

I noticed that there were earlier mentions of the dangers of taking Ibuprofens or Ace inhibitors . Has anyone one seen any official advice on this?

Edited by Norrance
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