Novel Coronavirus – China

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It was alright when the British Empire did it though?

Don't remember when we brought the world to its knees.

[nick sussex]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

 

Not to worry Buy American!

I despair ! 

[Snipper]

Seattle lab only uncovered extent of Washington coronavirus outbreak after breaking government rules

APPLE.NEWS

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With the comparatively small number of coronavirus tests being conducted in the US hampering efforts to track the spread of the virus, The New York Times reports that “local officials across the country were...

 

[Man With Beard]

27 minutes ago, beatpete said:

Father of student at Swansea uni has it, student lives with Father and attended all last week, uni told a few select people but they were told to keep it quite, l know one of them who show me the messages, warned a relative who works in senior role at same Dept as they have serious health issues, they were leading a big trade event. Relative approched top brass who said , oh you found out.... Trade event cancelled last min...... Relative is furious....

This is my biggest fear. Cash addicted big bosses putting their heads in the sand pretending it's all ok but in reality trying to guard their beloved financial empires to the very last second. Like trying to finish lunch with a prospective customer whilst on the Titanic. Typical western world thinking - short term gains are everything, don't look twice at the long term implications. 

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not to worry Buy American!

I despair ! 

Its ok them usa war bonds worked out alright....

[Spikecollie]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Not to worry Buy American!

I despair ! 

They'll be despairing soon enough. I've alluded to individualism and the US before but it just keep manifesting - we are OK, we will be OK, we are invincible to this - the values are so deeply rooted in the establishment that even though their individual states are declaring states of emergency, the central message remains. I find it fascinating but also deeply disturbing.

[kold weather]

30 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Moving closer to Wuhan now, but still probably stopping one step away from being in a position where I think they can realistically stop this thing. However its a good step and one that I think many other European countries will be following in the next 2 weeks.

[Boro Snow]

10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It was alright when the British Empire did it though?

What are you talking about 

[Man With Beard]

21 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

I seem to be spending far too much time trying to figure out what will be the best chance of stopping this virus in it's tracks....

1:  Vaccine?  No - that's a year to 18 months away from being realistically available in large enough quantities.

2:  Prevention of transmission by quarantine?  No - that would only work if everyone in the world was made to stay at home for at least four weeks with no contact with anyone else - because you would have to be sure that everyone who has already caught it has fully recovered before you let everyone else out again.  We will see if Italy manages to make a success of their own 'lockdown' but I suspect it's too late for the rest of the world.  But surely a quarantine period of this magnitude would be ruinous to the world economy anyway?

3:  Prevention of transmission by creating a 'herd immunity' - Yes!  This would work after enough people have contracted the virus and recovered with full immunity.  As the remaining pool of uninfected people becomes more and more diluted the virus will struggle to reinfect new victims.  Those few still actively carrying the virus will then recover without passing it on and after that, no more virus? 

If this is true, then perversely our best policy is to try and infect as many low-risk people as possible, and as fast as possible, so that they recover on their own, become immune, and then the virus has nowhere to go.  In this case gatherings like Cheltenham races are just what is called for so the virus can be passed around as many people as possible!  The elderly, infirm and sufferers from chronic illnesses will have to be isolated as much as possible in the meantime to keep the number of fatalities to the minimum, but these are the very people who will find it easiest to keep their distance from other people until the danger of infection has passed.

Not sure if there is any scientific basis to this theory and it's likely there is a flaw in the argument somewhere that I'm not seeing.   I'm sure there are people on here who will correct me if I have completely misunderstood the way a virus behaves?

Nice idea. Any volunteers to catch it?

[Bedknobs and Boomsticks]

19 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

If this is true, then perversely our best policy is to try and infect as many low-risk people as possible, and as fast as possible, so that they recover on their own, become immune, and then the virus has nowhere to go.  In this case gatherings like Cheltenham races are just what is called for so the virus can be passed around as many people as possible!  The elderly, infirm and sufferers from chronic illnesses will have to be isolated as much as possible in the meantime to keep the number of fatalities to the minimum, but these are the very people who will find it easiest to keep their distance from other people until the danger of infection has passed.

Not sure if there is any scientific basis to this theory and it's likely there is a flaw in the argument somewhere that I'm not seeing.   I'm sure there are people on here who will correct me if I have completely misunderstood the way a virus behaves?

Absolutely brutally correct. The only way to control it is for about 40 to 80% of the population to have been infected (I have a model). That's 25 to 50 million people: 2.5 to 5 million needing hospital treatment over the course of a few months. 

Feeling pretty bleak TBH. 

[Snipper]

11 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Indoor exercise. Get some window sill potted herbs and veggies going. Start to learn a new language. Knit or sew. DIY. Lots of reading. The list could go on according to your fancy.

Not sure everyone could be so disciplined. 

[Spikecollie]

Just now, Snipper said:

Not sure everyone could be so disciplined. 

I know, Snipper. Some would be off their faces on whatever and out looting and causing havoc - there would never be enough forces of law and order to go around - and from there it would degenerate. I don't think it would work in the contemporary UK...

[Spikecollie]

Right, bed for me.

No nightmares...

[kold weather]

I think at this point the BEST case scenario is for quite a few countries to go the Wuhan route at some point. SK option is probably already gone for at least 30 countries worldwide now.

So assuming that many of those countries will get to 60-100,000 cases, so your looking at probably at least 2 million cases by the end...(best case IMO) and using even the most conservative of mortality rates of 1%, thats at least 20,000 deaths worldwide. In all likelyhood thats a large underestimate as well.

Of course, that is not including many countries who will likely carry on picking up cases and occasional deaths even if they don't get community spread like we are now seeing at least in local areas of countries.

So IMO based on what we know, I would say from this point the utter best case scenario is probably 3 million cases, and 30,000 deaths. I'm not even going to speculate a worst case.

Edited March 11, 2020 by kold weather

[Daniel*]

Very bad findings for poorly ventilated London Underground! 

 

[Snipper]

2 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Or have the money for it when you're only getting SSP but you've still got all your bills to cover.

Or if you are a business owner with staff and borrowings and your business goes under.

[Snipper]

3 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Right, bed for me.

No nightmares...

Yes early start for me as well.

so please can everyone stop posting until tomorrow as I don’t want to wade through pages to catch up. 

[Ryukai]

4 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

They'll be despairing soon enough. I've alluded to individualism and the US before but it just keep manifesting - we are OK, we will be OK, we are invincible to this - the values are so deeply rooted in the establishment that even though their individual states are declaring states of emergency, the central message remains. I find it fascinating but also deeply disturbing.

Probably something to do with their childhood brainwashing where they have to 'pledge their allegiance to their great and powerful ruler' every morning before school starts.   From their first day at school until their last day of uni. For some, that is nearly 15 years of daily 're-enforcement' of their country and leader (whoever it is in charge) at being the 'best' in the world.  As a result most are simply incapable of understanding that their leader could even remotely be wrong....

Yet, strangely enough, they are the first to call out any other countries that do the same.....

[Man With Beard]

OK my thoughts, probably similar to many others. I have a big dilemma. I work in a public place and cross paths with hundreds of very mobile people everyday at work, and hundreds getting too and from work. I'm trying to be responsible, but a lot are not. Today I encountered so many people with colds and coughs. How long before one of them is a carrier. I'm not a particularly high risk of getting seriously ill through this virus, but I have a family and reasonably old relatives, and if I got it, so might they. My employer says "We're following government advice, so we're basically doing nothing for now". 

What does someone like me do? 

[beatpete]

16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is my biggest fear. Cash addicted big bosses putting their heads in the sand pretending it's all ok but in reality trying to guard their beloved financial empires to the very last second. Like trying to finish lunch with a prospective customer whilst on the Titanic. Typical western world thinking - short term gains are everything, don't look twice at the long term implications. 

Some big corporations pulled out before it was cancelled, they knew!

[mountain shadow]

15 minutes ago, Boro Snow said:

What are you talking about 

A discussion for another time.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

OK my thoughts, probably similar to many others. I have a big dilemma. I work in a public place and cross paths with hundreds of very mobile people everyday at work, and hundreds getting too and from work. I'm trying to be responsible, but a lot are not. Today I encountered so many people with colds and coughs. How long before one of them is a carrier. I'm not a particularly high risk of getting seriously ill through this virus, but I have a family and reasonably old relatives, and if I got it, so might they. My employer says "We're following government advice, so we're basically doing nothing for now". 

What does someone like me do? 

I'm in EXACTLY the same boat. 

It's driving me insane trying to reconcile things in my head. 

[Guest Delete Me]

366 cases of corona virus now confirmed in Washington state.

5 more deaths have been reported by DOH since yesterday, bringing the known death toll up to 29.

[Guest Delete Me]

Pretty awesome of Discord it's going to help SME's immensely around the world