Novel Coronavirus – China

[Guest Delete Me]

1:00: 73 new cases in Germany. 
17:48: 1,797 new cases and 97 new deaths in Italy. 
15:40: 203 new cases and 11 new deaths in France. 
15:30: 2 new deaths in Germany. 
14:00: 39 new cases in the United Kingdom. 
12:11: 45 new cases in Sweden. 
12:08: 68 new cases in Spain. 
12:05: 3 new cases in New York City, New York, United States. 
12:02: 1 new case in Vietnam. 
11:57: 14 new cases in the United Arab Emirates. 
11:20: 42 new cases in Switzerland. 
11:18: 1 new case in Poland. 
11:11: 13 new cases in Indonesia. 
11:01: 2 new cases and 8 new deaths in Spain. 
10:56: 4 new cases in Poland. 
10:47: 595 new cases and 43 new deaths in Iran. 
10:32: 39 new cases in Belgium. 
10:15: 235 new cases in Spain. 
10:14: 39 new cases in Germany. 
10:10: 24 new cases in Bahrain. 
10:06: 2 new cases in Wales, United Kingdom. 
10:04: 3 new cases in Qatar. 

[emax]

On the note of the UK government's response, I stand by my opinion that up until now, I think they've done as well as any major government could, and struck a perfect balance between useful info and not causing mass panic. 

I still dont think we should be closing the country down or anything, certainly not yet, because the economic impacts will be very severe, however, I think a good intro would be to at least ban large events. I know of plenty of smaller private events that have been called off by the organisers themselves, because they want to do the right thing, so its nice to know that some people aren't completely money driven. 

Its still an ever changing situation, and I totally understand why the government want to put off things as long as possible, but cancelling large events, even something like Cheltenham, shouldn't impact the economy that much I wouldnt have thought. 

The only thing that actually worries me a tiny amount, is the unrest that may come in the future from the scum that rome everyone's streets, and their reaction to any lock downs or restriction to emergency services responses. Think of the possible very worst case where the police are only investigating serious crime, does that give thieves cart blanch to run free? Who knows. I doubt it will ever get to that at all, but you can bet anything that the criminal scum (and just your average scum) will be hoping and praying for such occurrences!!

This is probably one of many hundreds of factors that will be influencing the governments decisions, and why things may get left to the very last minute, as a final last resort.

Edited March 9, 2020 by emax

[Guest Delete Me]

Totals outside of China..

Italy: 9,172 cases total
Iran: 7,161 cases total
South Korea; 7,487 cases total
France: 1,209 cases total
Germany: 1,224 cases total
Spain: 979 cases total

[beatpete]

31 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

Newsnight once again excellent tonight on this.  They've been very good for weeks but are really raising their game.  Intelligent questions and highly impressive and knowledgeable guests.  I really recommend it at the moment.

Amazingly I found myself agreeing with a certain guest that I really thought I would never....

[emax]

Current surface wind as of 11pm 9th March. 

Just found it funny. Its as if the Atlantic is trying to cocoon us lol

[lottiekent]

59 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

So why doesn't the UK have more cases? Logically, we should have more than we do. Something's not adding up!

Because I don’t think that at the moment they are testing everyone who has symptoms unless they have travelled to an at risk area

[Summer Sun]

27 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Totals outside of China..

Italy: 9,172 cases total
Iran: 7,161 cases total
South Korea; 7,487 cases total
France: 1,209 cases total
Germany: 1,224 cases total
Spain: 979 cases total

Question now is will the bottom 3 get to the figures of the top 3 or were these just isolated 'hotspots'

[kold weather]

Well this is quite a sobering post from twitter:

All European countries as of yesterday were right on the same curve as Italy. Obviously today Spain has lurched up faster than the rest but thats a scary match and you can probably see where we are on a similar curve as well

Summer Sun, this may give a clue...

Edited March 9, 2020 by kold weather

[summer blizzard]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well this is quite a sobering post from twitter:

All European countries as of yesterday were right on the same curve as Italy. Obviously today Spain has lurched up faster than the rest but thats a scary match and you can probably see where we are on a similar curve as well

Summer Sun, this may give a clue...

Interesting how they all seem to jump from 400 to 600. Fortunately those behind the curve can watch Italy over the next week.

[Daniel*]

We all know about America by now but what about Japan shocking lack of tests ! With Olympics this summer you wonder their behaviour. 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

23 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well this is quite a sobering post from twitter:

All European countries as of yesterday were right on the same curve as Italy. Obviously today Spain has lurched up faster than the rest but thats a scary match and you can probably see where we are on a similar curve as well

Summer Sun, this may give a clue...

It doesn't take the second coming of Einstein to see the road we're heading down unless we take drastic action NOW. In fact it has been quite clearly signposted since January. 

What a useless waste of money our politicians are.

[Summer Sun]

 

[northwestsnow]

Spain is the next one to watch, cases are beginning to spike now..

[Cheshire Freeze]

People talk about the economy etc but what is money compared to people's relations? You'll be hard pressed to find many people who would put finances above having their friends and relatives alive and well.

[emax]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

People talk about the economy etc but what is money compared to people's relations? You'll be hard pressed to find many people who would put finances above having their friends and relatives alive and well.

Yes and no. As I've said before its a fine line, and a matter of personal perspective. 

This virus "could" severely affect thousands of people in the UK, the majority of whom will likely have underlying illnesses, and certainly some of them (maybe majority, but its pure guessing) "could" of gone on to die shortly anyway.

However, the economy affects millions of people across the board, and would not only affect them financially, but physically and mentally too. Does that mean those at risk are meaningless? Of course not, but some people do seem to be underestimating just how much damage the economy can do to the population, and the monumental knock on effects quarantine etc brings (massive spike in crime etc). That's why there's a time and a place for strong measures, to limit the effects for everyone, for as short a time as possible.

[emax]

Still too early for any sort of analysis or comparing of data etc, but maybe the social aspects have played a part in Italy?

Just for fun, I looked up what travel guides say about Italy vs UK:

Social customs in Italy

When you’re introduced to an Italian, you should say ‘good day’ ( buongiorno) and shake hands

Italian families and friends usually kiss when they meet, irrespective of their sex. If a lady expects you to kiss her, she offers her cheek. Between members of the opposite sex the ‘kiss’ is deposited high up on the cheek, never on the mouth (except between lovers!) and isn’t usually really a kiss, more a delicate brushing of the cheeks accompanied by kissing noises.

There are usually two kisses – first on the right cheek, then on the left. It’s also common in Italy for male relatives and close male friends to embrace each other.

 

Social customs in UK

British people are not very keen on displaying affection in public. Hugging, kissing and touching are usually reserved for family members and very close friends. You should also avoid talking loudly in public or going to extremes with hand gestures during the course of communication. The British like a certain amount of personal space. Do not stand too close to another person or put your arm around someone’s shoulder.

 

Now, obviously there are exceptions to any of this, and the British do like a handshake (although I think its dying out personally), but we are most definitely nowhere near as touchy feely as countries such as Italy and France etc. Again, this is all just random theories, and sadly only time will tell, but it is another mitigating factor that could "slow" the spread, possibly?

[weirpig]

French tv reporting  mbappe  taken poorly  of course it could be just a cold etc  but rumour mill is a whirling

Kylian Mbappé has a serious throat infection, according to RTL - he spent most of today in bed & is on medication to ease the pain. It is not clear if he’ll make it to training tomorrow

Edited March 10, 2020 by weirpig

[Hirudine]

Although the evidence is circumstantial so far, if true, it seems relative humidity might play an important factor in human to human transmission of this disease. If that does turn out to be the case, it is a bit worrying, as it would seem to imply that airborne transmission is a bigger vector of Covid-19 than previously thought.

[ArHu3]

4 hours ago, Donegal said:

 

South Korea has a lower mortality because they test more, therefore find more subclinical infections 

[Weather-history]

9 hours ago, kold weather said:

Not odd, they have almost certainly got many cases, just not reporting it/ignoring it, similar to what our friend Trump has tried to do until those cases started in the care home.

Turkey free of coronavirus so far, says health minister

WWW.AA.COM.TR

---

Fahrettin Koca says coronavirus cases possible in Turkey, but spread of disease to be prevented with proper measures - Anadolu Agency

 

[knocker]

I do not post in this thread for two reasons.

1, I don’t know enough about the subject so my comments would be worthless

2 The ban on the political dimension means that it cannot be discussed properly to the relevant depth and detail

What I mean by this can be sunned up by the following extract from an article by Rachel Sylvester in Today’s Times

 The Covid-19 outbreak is another reminder that the divide between the health and social care systems is not only artificial, it is counterproductive. With elderly people more vulnerable to the disease, the pressure on hospitals is sure to grow but what could turn difficulty into disaster is the lack of social care for those who are well enough to go home.

Already NHS wards are full of elderly patients who have no medical need to be in hospital. More than 148,000 bed days were lost in December alone as a result of delayed discharges. There has also been a 35 per cent rise in the number of dementia patients turning up at accident and emergency departments over the past five years following day care centre closures.

The system is driven by perverse incentives. It costs about £250 a day for someone to be on a hospital ward and £100 for a domiciliary care package, so from the point of view of the NHS (and the taxpayer) it makes sense for elderly people to go home quickly — but councils, which are responsible for funding social care, have a financial motive to transfer the cost to hospitals. Although health funding has been ring-fenced, local authorities face a shortfall of almost £4 billion by 2025 in social care budgets.

According to Age UK, 1.5 million elderly people are not getting the care and support they need. More than 1,600 residential and nursing homes have closed in the past five years and the government’s post-Brexit immigration policy, which includes a minimum salary threshold, will only make matters worse. There are already 122,000 vacancies in the sector and one in 11 care workers is from the EU.

I realise this post will be removed tout suite

Edited March 10, 2020 by knocker

[lottiekent]

7 hours ago, kold weather said:

Well this is quite a sobering post from twitter:

All European countries as of yesterday were right on the same curve as Italy. Obviously today Spain has lurched up faster than the rest but thats a scary match and you can probably see where we are on a similar curve as well

Summer Sun, this may give a clue...

I’d like to see what the uk’s case trend is compared to this...might see if I can work it out 

[Garybournemouth]

We hear a lot about what action China has taken to reduce the rate of infections. What action did South Korea take to reduce infection rates?

[snefnug]

Morning Knocker,

 

I don’t see any reason why it should be removed, it is perfectly valid in the conversation.  I think it is  far more complex than described.  Elderly people at home need vastly more auxiliary nursing care than people think.  I am not. Carer, but I do look after the household needs of very elderly people.  Where I have seen care packages put in place (one for my mother who had Alzheimer’s in 2011), they are not really adequate, more of a “have you eaten/had a cup of tea”.  My mother refused to have the carers in her house, and legally that was her right. I used trek across from Wales to Derbyshire on a regular basis to clean the house, feed her up, sort out her medical needs and hygiene needs.  If we had lived closer she may  have been able to stay longer at home, but in the end, she refused access to anyone, so we had to transfer her to a care home for her own well-being.  The clients I have in the valley are housebound through age or infirmity.  One is self sufficient In she is internet savvy and orders her groceries online for delivery, orders clothes from companies on line and is a member of a thriving international online art community.  She hires me to clean the house and, I think, gossip.  One couple I shop for, take to hospital dental appointments, walk the dog, clean the house, etc... their offspring in Spain and USA respectively.  They too refuse care package, but are happy for me to run around....  in loco filia so to speak.

Edited March 10, 2020 by snefnug

[BornFromTheVoid]

New Study Out:

Results:

There were 181 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure and symptom onset windows to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine.

Conclusion:

This work provides additional evidence for a median incubation period for COVID-19 of approximately 5 days, similar to SARS. Our results support current proposals for the length of quarantine or active monitoring of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2, although longer monitoring periods might be justified in extreme cases.

The Incubation Period of COVID-19 From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases | Annals of Internal Medicine | American College of Physicians

ANNALS.ORG