Novel Coronavirus – China

[Bristawl Si]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The situation in Italy is unprecedented. The problem for the UK government now is allowing events like the Cheltenham festival to go ahead even if the correct decision is a lose situation.

People from all over the country in close confines , lots of alcohol so people might not be so worried after a few drinks and then all those people going back home .

 

Big horse racing fan, as some know on here, but yes it is concerning. 200,000plus descended or descending on Cheltenham; many of the Irish stay for the whole 4 days. Having been a regular visitor to the Festival, esp Gold Cup day, i know full well how the town is rammed for the week. In the town in the eve, after racing, it really is a massive social gathering, and plenty of racegoers mingle very closely, shall we say.

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's a gathering to the thousands,this shouldn't happen...prompto.

not all of us know if we have the symptoms due to the incubation period

how are you over there Nick?

Okay , a bit stressed but comfort eating is helping ! I’ve not done any panic buying but just hope the tabac doesn’t run out of cigs . My vape device is sadly just not cutting it at the moment ! 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Well I understand that . The thing is we just don’t know . The governments health experts are doing their best but no one really knows how many cases are out there .

Trust me, it doesn't need many cases right now with these big gatherings, if there are 10 people that have it in the 4 days of Cheltenham, i don't think that it would be an exaggeration that if you follow the line of person to person contact and transmission, that you would be looking at thousands of cases just related to them months down the line, and that is probably a conservative estimate, i can bet my bottom dollar there will be a 3 figure number of infected people going to Cheltenham over the course of the week. Remember the John Campbell video, a good chunk of infected people have no clue they have got it, so even people who get symptoms are not so selfish as to still go, there will be loads that havent a clue - thats the problem.

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Big horse racing fan, as some know on here, but yes it is concerning. 200,000plus descended or descending on Cheltenham; many of the Irish stay for the whole 4 days. Having been a regular visitor to the Festival, esp Gold Cup day, i know full well how the town is rammed for the week. In the town in the eve, after racing, it really is a massive social gathering, and plenty of racegoers mingle very closely, shall we say.

Got to think this may lead to a large number of cases, though it being somewhat out in the open may help to somewhat mitigate the worst cases. 

Definately too late to cancel it now though, we will just have to hope people use common sense...

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Donegal said:

Countries in Europe need to take extraordinary measures now or end up like Italy. Be proactive not reactive. Fanny about and you'll up in total lock down regardless. 

Two week public holiday for the whole of the EU and the UK. Start in 48 hours so people can get ready. Might just avoid the worst of the catastrophe. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Okay , a bit stressed but comfort eating is helping ! I’ve not done any panic buying but just hope the tabac doesn’t run out of cigs . My vape device is sadly just not cutting it at the moment ! 

Tried that ha! ha!,not as healthy as some folk think but i might be slated

i just hope that the UK Gov't step up to this as the Italian scenario is scary 

Italy in total lock-down but is that too late?,cause it is,flight's/transport out of there has been on the move before this.

 

 

 

[HighPressure]

7 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Big horse racing fan, as some know on here, but yes it is concerning. 200,000plus descended or descending on Cheltenham; many of the Irish stay for the whole 4 days. Having been a regular visitor to the Festival, esp Gold Cup day, i know full well how the town is rammed for the week. In the town in the eve, after racing, it really is a massive social gathering, and plenty of racegoers mingle very closely, shall we say.

Just posted this in the Cheltenham thread :

 

The only winner I can see at Cheltenham is odds on :

'Iris the Virus' to win by a short head beating 'Head in the sand' !!!

Its like 2 sets of people living in 2 different worlds at the moment - I am minded of HG Wells words from WOTW when the martians had just arrived.

[Snowyowl9]

First movie I ever watched called Quarantine always sticks in my mind this.

I never liked virus movies let alone viruses.

 

[Norrance]

Our friends who were going skiing to Italy have managed to change to Austria so have got lucky at least financially. The neighbours on the round the world trip have decided to go ahead having paid out lots of dosh. They are both very fit despite being just in the high risk age group so on balance have decided to go. Problems could be entry to or exit from some of the countries that they are visiting.
Starting to worry about our own trip in a couple of months to visit my daughter in the USA. Perhaps for us a lockdown now might be better as it may be lifted by then though god knows what is going to happen over there.

[alexisj9]

50 minutes ago, matt111 said:

For anyone who saw my post about a relative being in hospital last night, the tests come back negative. Diagnosed with flu and a chest infection. 

Im glad to hear that, must have been a big relief. 

[Stabilo19]

The rise in cases in Germany, France and Spain seem to be mirroring each other, and worrying, on a path similar to that of Italy a week or so prior.

Edited March 9, 2020 by Stabilo19

[Robbie Garrett]

1 hour ago, Donegal said:

Countries in Europe need to take extraordinary measures now or end up like Italy. Be proactive not reactive. Fanny about and you'll up in total lock down regardless. 

It's as simple as this. If the UK does lock-down, the 2011 riots would seem small in comparison.   The mass hysteria of buying bog role and 49p paracetamol and pasta can't have filled COBRA with any confidence, let alone the Met Police probably saying; don't even think about it.   You would have to put the army on the streets, and in huge numbers.  

9 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Just read that Cyprus had its first two cases and interestingly one of them got it in the UK. We have definitely missed a lot of cases for this to be happening. 

Yes, it brings me back to my point a week ago.  Mid-January, roughly 10 days when most of the Chinese Students came back to where I live, I got very poorly. Worst in 6 years by a huge margin and I definitely wasn't as proactively washing my hands and not touching my face back then.  Didn't really recover till early February from that.   

114,276 recorded cases.  If you take the WHO R0, that's 228,552-571,380 that potentially have been infected.    Looking at the Covid-19 Worldometer for the UK 4.7 cases for every 1million people. 

Have a look at this though.

[Stabilo19]

So why doesn't the UK have more cases? Logically, we should have more than we do. Something's not adding up!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Robbie Garrett said:

It's as simple as this. If the UK does lock-down, the 2011 riots would seem small in comparison.   The mass hysteria of buying bog role and 49p paracetamol and pasta can't have filled COBRA with any confidence, let alone the Met Police probably saying; don't even think about it.   You would have to put the army on the streets, and in huge numbers.  

Yes, it brings me back to my point a week ago.  Mid-January, roughly 10 days when most of the Chinese Students came back to where I live, I got very poorly. Worst in 6 years by a huge margin and I definitely wasn't as proactively washing my hands and not touching my face back then.  Didn't really recover till early February from that.   

114,276 recorded cases.  If you take the WHO R0, that's 228,552-571,380 that potentially have been infected.    Looking at the Covid-19 Worldometer for the UK 4.7 cases for every 1million people. 

Have a look at this though.

Horrendous..

This is now getting really really serious..

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Our friends who were going skiing to Italy have managed to change to Austria so have got lucky at least financially. The neighbours on the round the world trip have decided to go ahead having paid out lots of dosh. They are both very fit despite being just in the high risk age group so on balance have decided to go. Problems could be entry to or exit from some of the countries that they are visiting.
Starting to worry about our own trip in a couple of months to visit my daughter in the USA. Perhaps for us a lockdown now might be better as it may be lifted by then though god knows what is going to happen over there.

Never been to Austria and would like to but not having the cash limit's me to the peak district but still a nice place and it's on my doorstep

i am glad for them to get a transfer to Austria(a safer bet)and wish them well on there travels

as for the retirement couple,go for it,you only live once and i would do the same regardless of the circumstances,this is a one off lifetime event around the world,keep us informed Norrance of there travels

thanks.

 

[Robbie Garrett]

2 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

So why doesn't the UK have more cases? Logically, we should have more than we do. Something's not adding up!

Wet weather and majority of people staying in? I work in Zone 1, it's been dead since Jan 1st.  Every weekend it's been windy and a nightmare to travel into London.  Just a thought...

[alexisj9]

7 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

It's as simple as this. If the UK does lock-down, the 2011 riots would seem small in comparison.   The mass hysteria of buying bog role and 49p paracetamol and pasta can't have filled COBRA with any confidence, let alone the Met Police probably saying; don't even think about it.   You would have to put the army on the streets, and in huge numbers.  

Yes, it brings me back to my point a week ago.  Mid-January, roughly 10 days when most of the Chinese Students came back to where I live, I got very poorly. Worst in 6 years by a huge margin and I definitely wasn't as proactively washing my hands and not touching my face back then.  Didn't really recover till early February from that.   

114,276 recorded cases.  If you take the WHO R0, that's 228,552-571,380 that potentially have been infected.    Looking at the Covid-19 Worldometer for the UK 4.7 cases for every 1million people. 

Have a look at this though.

Ouch

[Daniel*]

44 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

Verily sires, being of fever'd brow I today took to visiting Ye Olde Shoppe and the foul crone at the counter said unto me that not half a day  previous a mobbe of villeins had descended on her abode and swept the shelves of all nettle gel and extra thicke parchment for rendering a clean fundament.  I shall provide a picture on completion of my humble scribble.

Truely we are bereft.

  I always had you down as a more sophisticated tight isobar, cut from same cloth....decipher this.... poppycock ! 

[Summer Sun]

 

[abruzzi spur]

Just now, Daniel* said:

  I always had you down as a more sophisticated tight isobar, cut from same cloth....decipher this.... poppycock ! 

It's an imagination of what someone might have posted on a primitive social media at the time of the Black Death that you mentioned.  

[Stabilo19]

4 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Wet weather and majority of people staying in? I work in Zone 1, it's been dead since Jan 1st.  Every weekend it's been windy and a nightmare to travel into London.  Just a thought...

It'd be incredible if the appalling 2019/20 winter has really saved us from a Italy-style virus outbreak!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Stabilo19 said:

It'd be incredible if the appalling 2019/20 winter has really saved us from a Italy-style virus outbreak!

Pity we didn't have a Jan 87 followed by a Feb 91, and for more reasons than i usually pray for them, that might have done the trick.

[emax]

8 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

It'd be incredible if the appalling 2019/20 winter has really saved us from a Italy-style virus outbreak!

Well funnily I was thinking that this evening. 

Obviously this is just me thinking out loud again, so I could be talking complete ****, so someone correct me if this is rubbish...................but I'm sure I saw a paper linked on here that mentioned humidity, and that high humidity actually hindered the virus? I thought it was the other way, but I'm sure thats what was being suggested? So if that is the case, could this relentless rain maybe actually helping to a minor degree, in the absence of any sun?

Edited March 9, 2020 by emax

[ThundersnowDays]

Some of my family in isolation after contact with a positive case. In Devon btw.

[abruzzi spur]

Newsnight once again excellent tonight on this.  They've been very good for weeks but are really raising their game.  Intelligent questions and highly impressive and knowledgeable guests.  I really recommend it at the moment.