Novel Coronavirus – China

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

17 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

In some parts of northern Italy within the last week it's been 25C one day and then 1C and snowing two days later, so outside both ends of their 5-11C. I'm not sure their study has used actual weather reports, just matched it up with long term averages?

Think they are just trying to figure out what conditions it thrives in most? some sections from the report

"Notably, during the same time, COVID-19 failed to spread significantly to countries immediately south of China. The number of patients and reported deaths in Southeast Asia is much less when compared to more temperate regions noted above. Further analysis using 2-meter (2m) temperatures from 2020 rather than hPa temperatures yields similar results (Figure 2). In the months of January 2020 in Wuhan and February 2020 in the other affected, there is a striking similarity in the measures of average temperature (5-11oC) and relative humidity (RH, 47-79%) (Table 1). In addition to have similar average temperature, humidity, and latitude profiles, these locations also exhibit a commonality in that the timing of the outbreak coincides with a nadir in the yearly temperature cycle, and thus with relatively stable temperatures over a more than a one month period of time (Supplementary Figure 1). In addition, none of the affected cities have minimum temperatures going below 0 oC (Supplementary Figure 1).The association between temperature in the cities affected with COVID-19 deserves special attention. There is a similarity in the measures of average temperature (5-11oC) and RH (47-79%) in the affected cities and known laboratory conditions that are conducive to coronavirus survival (4oC and 20-80% RH).9 Temperature and humidity are also known factors in SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and influenza survival. 10 Furthermore, new outbreaks occurred during periods of prolonged time at these temperatures, perhaps pointing to increased risk of outbreaks with prolonged conditions in this range. Finally, the temperatures in these cities did not dip below 0oC, pointing to a potential minimum range, which could be due to avoidance of freeze-thaw cycles that could affect virus viability or other factors (at least one human coronaviruses tested is freeze-thaw resistant). 11 All of these point to a potential direct relation between temperature and SARS-CoV-2 environmental survival and spreading. This hypothesis can be tested in experimental conditions similar to work that has been done before,9 and with environmental sampling and testing from areas of ongoing infection. Given the temporal spread among areas with similar temperature and latitude, some predictions can tentatively be made about the potential community spread of COVID-19 in the coming weeks. Using 2019 temperature data for March and April, risk of community spread could be predicted to affect areas just north of the current areas at risk (Figure 3). These could include (from East to West) Manchuria, Central Asia, the Caucuses, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, the British Isles, the Northeastern and Midwestern United States, and British Columbia. However, this simplified analysis does not take into account the effect of warming temperatures. The marked drop in cases in Wuhan could well be linked to corresponding recent rising temperatures there (Table 1). In the coming 2 months, temperatures will rise dramatically across many areas in the Northern Hemisphere. However, areas to the north which develop temperature profiles that may now overlap the current areas at risk only transiently as they rapidly warm (with possible exception of areas such as City Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Cities with community spreading of COVID-19 Wuhan 18oC/44% 12 oC/56% 7 oC/74% 13 oC/66% Tokyo 17 oC/53% 11 oC/52% 9 oC/54% 10 oC/47% Qom 12 oC/52% 10 oC/58% 7 oC/59% 10 oC/47% Milan 11 oC/77% 8 oC/74% 7 oC/69% 11 oC/58% Daegu 11 oC/64% 5 oC/62% 4 oC/68% 5 oC/62% Seattle 9 oC/76% 6 oC/84% 6 oC/84% 7 oC/79% Mulhouse 7 oC/84% 6 oC/82% 6 oC/80% 8 oC/74% Glasgow 5 oC/87% 5 oC/89% 6 oC/86% 4 oC/84% Large cities tentatively predicted to be at risk in the coming weeks London 8 oC/78% 8 oC/80% 8 oC/80% 8 oC/70% Manchester 7 oC/82% 6 oC/83% 7 oC/83% 6 oC/73% Berlin 8 oC/81% 5 oC/80% 5 oC/81% 6 oC/75% Prague 7 oC/81% 4 oC/78% 3 oC/79% 6 oC/71% Hamburg 6 oC/89% 5 oC/86% 6 oC/88% 6 oC/83% Vancouver 8 oC/75% 6 oC/84% 5 oC/84% 5 oC/78% New York 8 oC/55% 4 oC/72% 4 oC/61% 5 oC/62% Warsaw 8 oC/76% 4 oC/78% 3 oC/78% 5 oC/72% Glasgow 5 oC/87% 5 oC/89% 6 oC/86% 4 oC/84% Kiev 6 oC/74% 4 oC/83% 1 oC/85% 3 oC/76% St. Louis 6 oC/71% 5 oC/78% 3 oC/77% 3 oC/73% Beijing 9 oC/33% 2 oC/43% 2 oC/41% 5 oC/45% Previously predicted city where COVID-19 failed to take hold Bangkok 31 oC/52% 30 oC/45% 32 oC/50% 32 oC/51% Table 1. November 2019 to February 2020 average temperature ( oC) and humidity (%) data from cities with community spreading of COVID-19 and those at potentially at risk. Temperature and humidity data obtained from www.worldweatheronline.com the Northwest United States and British Columbia, which can show prolonged cyclical nadirs) (Supplementary Figure 1). Furthermore, as the virus moves further north it will encounter sequentially less human population densities. The above factors, climate variables not considered or analyzed (cloud cover, maximum temperature, etc.), human factors not considered or analyzed (impact of epidemiologic interventions, concentrated outbreaks like cruise ships, travel, etc.), viral factors not considered or analyzed (mutation rate, pathogenesis, etc.), mean that although the current correlations with latitude and temperature seem strong, a direct causation has not been proven and predictions in the near term are speculative and have to be considered with extreme caution. Human coronaviruses (HCoV-229E, HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-NL63, and HCoV-OC43), which usually lead to common cold symptoms, have been shown to display strong winter seasonality between December and April, and are undetectable in summer months in temperate regions.12 Although it would be even more difficult to make a long-term prediction at this stage, it is tempting to expect COVID-19 to diminish considerably in affected areas (above the 30o N”) in the coming months. It could perhaps prevail at low levels in tropical regions similar to influenza and begin to rise again in late fall and winter in temperate regions in the upcoming year. One other possibility is that it will not be able to sustain itself in the summer in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere and disappear. Surveillance efforts Figure 3. World 1000hPa temperature map March 2019-April 2019. Color gradient indicates 1000hPa temperatures in degrees Celsius. Tentative areas at risk in the near-term include those following the light green bands. Image from Climate Reanalyzer (https://ClimateReanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA. in the tropics, as well as New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, Argentina, and Chile between the months of June through September may be of value in determining establishment in the human population. Along these lines, an avenue for further research involves the use of integrated or coupled epidemiological-earth-human systems models, which can incorporate climate and weather processes and variables (e.g., dynamics of temperature, humidity) and their spatiotemporal changes, as well as simulate scenarios of human interactions (e.g., travel, transmission due to population density). Such models can assimilate data currently being collected to accelerate the improvements of model predictions on short time scales (i.e., daily to seasonal). This type of predictive approach would allow to explore questions such as what are population centers most at risk and for how long; where to intensify large scale surveillance and tighten control measures to prevent spreading; better understanding of limiting factors for virus spreading in the southern hemisphere; and making predictions for a 2021-2022 virus season. A better understanding of the cause of seasonality for coronaviruses and other respiratory viruses would undoubtedly aid in better treatments and/or prevention, and be useful in determining which areas need heightened surveillance"

[Frost HoIIow]

A concerning thing locally is the gentleman who died at North Manchester general hospital. It's not a million miles from here in Oldham. He recently returned from Italy & brought back the more serious strain. Makes one wonder who else he passed it on to.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Some concerning news coming out of Italy on Twitter.

To paraphrase what I've read- the average age for ICU admission is getting lower as the elderly were picked off first and succumbed fast, younger patients succumbing later and facing a health system that is exhausted. In the particular sample of admissions, only 2/10 had relevant co-morbidities. This is from someone working at Lecco hospital apparently.

 

[nick sussex]

A rather troubling stat .

Current critical  care beds per 100,000 of population .

Germany 29

Italy 12.5

France 11.6

UK 6.6 

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by nick sussex

[abruzzi spur]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A rather troubling stat .

Current critical  care beds per 100,000 of population .

Germany 29

Italy 12.5

France 11.6

UK 6.6 

 

Reservation of beds could be linked to towel ownership rates per person:

Germany 12

Italy 6

France 5

UK 2

[Thundery wintry showers]

55 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I don’t normally discuss my work side but fair enough .

It is in the area of psychology and counselling . But regardless the portrayal of the virus asks questions as to who we value in society and the worth of that individual.

Its also a cultural thing . The elderly are much more revered in more Southern European countries . I speak from experience being from Cypriot heritage.

All life is precious and all life deserves equal respect. I don’t like the attitude of “ its terrible but really only effects older people “ .

Which is the sense I’m getting from the narrative out there .

Yeah, it's easy to generalise and say that the elderly are, on average, weaker and less productive members of society, but on the other side of the coin, it's not hard to think of people in their 70s, 80s and even 90s who have had large impacts on society at those ages: David Attenborough is arguably the most famous example, and there's the likes of John Williams, Ennio Morricone, Alex Ferguson, Bobby Robson and Murray Walker.  Then there's the many, many people who have very close relationships with elderly people.  Maybe it wouldn't be such a big deal if it was only killing off people who didn't have long left anyway, but the stats suggest that there's some older people who potentially have at least a decade or two left and a fair amount to give who are being zapped by the new coronavirus.

Edited March 8, 2020 by Thundery wintry showers

[nick sussex]

Just now, abruzzi spur said:

Reservation of beds could be linked to towel ownership rates per person:

Germany 12

Italy 6

France 5

UK 2

Glad to see you maintain your good form from last night ! Certainly we need a little humour to keep our spirits up.

[abruzzi spur]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Glad to see you maintain your good form from last night ! Certainly we need a little humour to keep our spirits up.

Agreed Nick.  I'm not trivialising but sometimes, I hope, a bit of humour can see us through all sorts of darkness.

[Gael_Force]

13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Some concerning news coming out of Italy on Twitter.

To paraphrase what I've read- the average age for ICU admission is getting lower as the elderly were picked off first and succumbed fast, younger patients succumbing later and facing a health system that is exhausted. In the particular sample of admissions, only 2/10 had relevant co-morbidities. This is from someone working at Lecco hospital apparently.

 

The marathon runner (38) first case, is still in intensive care. Apparently the Omaha, Nebraska case is also a young fit person into sport. The chances for recovery in the young are higher but it could be a long stay in hospital.

Here's how a Nebraska coronavirus patient was transported

NYPOST.COM

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A chilling photograph shows the extreme measures taken to safely transport Nebraska’s first corona­virus case — an Omaha woman who may have...

 

[Robbie Garrett]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I am wondering whether some countries have already seen an explosion of the mild strain earlier on in the winter. Quite a few people giving accounts of a dry cough and breathing difficulties associated with it. 

It could be that catching the initial strain may prove invaluable as to how your body handles the more severe strain. All conjecture but it is food for thought.

3 hours ago, Azazel said:

Several people in here, myself included have reported the same.

mine was pretty brutal. Dry hacking cough, body aches, fatigue, fever and I spent a day or so struggling to breathe.

3 hours ago, booferking said:

I had a really bad flu like i never had before but this was before Christmas felt hard to breath and really dry cough  for over a week.

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Completely agree, was nothing like any 'cold' I've had before. The reason it sticks in my mind is because I thought it unusual at the time and I remember being paranoid I had pneumonia!

Come to think of it, I did have something before Christmas; I spent the week in bed, and was very lazy - but it felt just like a very strong cold. 

The thing Mid-January took it out of me, but I was also on Nights.  Slept well though.    Did you guys have pain on yours sides as well? Breathing was tense for about 2 weeks I'd say.  Recovered early February, but the worse was over within 3 days of my fever peaking.   Diagnosed by the doctor as a virus.  I've seen it dismissed, but where I live in SE17 there's 6-7 blocks of Chinese students that attend the local Universities, along with a fair few living in my block.  It's just the timing too, 10 days after I see them return in huge numbers I was sick with the above symptoms.

 

3 hours ago, kold weather said:

Wouldn't be shocked if we follow suit in the next few days here, I think it maybe more towards the end of the week, but since there is a COBRA meeting tomorrow, they may well try and keep ahead of it.

2 hours ago, emax said:

What with COBRA tomorrow, I should think tomorrow night/Tuesday, all will be revealed with regards to the UK's next step.

I still personally dont think this is going to be as bad as some are saying, and in reality most people will probably not be affected other than a cough or fever etc, however, Italy is definitely concerning now (not because of the numbers per se, as there may be lots of mitigating circumstances we dont know about) but more because of the possible strain involved. But as with anything like this, unfortunately, all you can really do is ride the rollercoaster and react as and when (ie generally reaction is after rather than before). No one knew how big Italy's numbers would become. Now we do, its already far to late to make any huge difference. But as I've said before, a week or two ago, numbers outside China weren't all that high, so you wouldn't know where the next big outbreak would come from. The only way to protect against this, is to shut down all international travel, rather than specific countries. Doing this though, for a major economy, would be suicide, especially if you're the only country doing this. Switch it around........we shut the country down internationally 2 weeks ago, the virus doesnt spread, most countries end up with very small numbers and it becomes a non affair.....there'd be far more complaints about the government I can tell you, and it would of affected way more than the virus ever could of.

I think it was the CMO who said its about waiting for cases to be high, but not too high, before we react. For the sake of the economy (which affects everyone, not just those prone to this virus), I agree with him. As I keep saying, its a fine line to walk. I understand those that think they will get this virus because of underlying issues are worried, and wanted the country shut down weeks ago, I do understand why you hold that opinion, honestly I do. BUT, for the 80-90% of the population who arent at risk of being affected severely, their jobs and livelihoods need to be considered too!

 

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

When you see stuff like that, how can you not feel that the government has already decided to let this spread?

 

I don't think it's a case of letting it spread, but a case of a few hundred deaths vs billions being wiped of the economy.    Sadly waiting for the situation in Italy to happen to the UK is one scenario they've already mentioned, the problem is they feel the NHS is up to it. Or are they just setting it up to fail, just so they can sell it off in the aftermath?  

I did Business Studies at A Level, and Business Management at degree level.   Only 2008 and 1987 have seen greater falls than this, and that worries the Government from taking the next steps.    But then the 2010 Ashcloud cost airlines then £10m a day (£14m in today's money).   I am sure this already close, hence Flybe tipped over the edge.   I'd say Flybe lost £100m+ leading up to recent days, and I wouldn't put it past the likes of BA, easyJet loosing similar. 

I'd say crippling the NHS (Wuhan-N-Italy Style) is probably more economically damaging than closing airports, borders and "Delaying" the spread by closing all public transport networks.    I know Kings College Hospital was full in January, I had a family member wait two days for a bed. If that's true across the UK, then surely the Government must think logistics and prepare for Italy shutdowns or better still, Christmas Day style closures for x number of weeks.  Maybe except supermarkets and pharmacies. 

The Police couldn't deal with a 2011 style riots today, as that's exactly what will happen with the generation we have today.  You would have to have the Army on the streets.  This in a nutshell is exactly why the shelves in supermarkets are empty and why no matter what efforts the authorities put in place, sadly the virus is well and truly out the bag and unstoppable in the UK.

23,500 cases (maybe slightly less) have called 111 or there GP with symptoms of Covid-19 and 1.16% have returned as positive.   With a R0 of 2-5, there's going to be likely 546-1365 cases over the next few days.

[Cheshire Freeze]

All good keeping supermarkets open until you realise they will be a central point of infection. Even just the staff, many of whom will be forced to come in even when ill. 

I know the culture, I work in one.

[Guest Delete Me]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

All good keeping supermarkets open until you realise they will be a central point of infection. Even just the staff, many of whom will be forced to come in even when ill. 

I know the culture, I work in one.

Which one you at? Sainsburys Nantwich yesterday was a fookin joke.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Paul Faulkner said:

Which one you at? Sainsburys Nantwich yesterday was a fookin joke.

Will send a sticky note mate.

[HighPressure]

Can I ask what peoples thoughts are on this :

I received a answerphone message at 5.45pm on Thursday evening my doctors practice with the following information:

'All my medication has been stopped / no further medication will be prescribed until I attend a medication review at the surgery.'

I am a patient that could be considered within the 'at risk' group with the out break of Corona Virus, my medication is for asthma,

Just heard it going through my voice messages - I am in shock !

[summer blizzard]

Interesting thing with Italy is whether we can start to see active cases drop in a week or so like China. Also how well Germany, France and the UK can hold down cases to the 2-300 mark.

South Korea has slowed a lot in recent days suggesting it may be close to peak. They apparently quarantined places.

[Guest Delete Me]

Just now, HighPressure said:

Can I ask what peoples thoughts are on this :

I received a answerphone message at 5.45pm on Thursday evening my doctors practice with the following information:

'All my medication has been stopped / no further medication will be prescribed until I attend a medication review at the surgery.'

I am a patient that could be considered within the 'at risk' group with the out break of Corona Virus, my medication is for asthma,

Just heard it going through my voice messages - I am in shock !

Do you have an FFP3 mask you can wear to your review?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, HighPressure said:

Can I ask what peoples thoughts are on this :

I received a answerphone message at 5.45pm on Thursday evening my doctors practice with the following information:

'All my medication has been stopped / no further medication will be prescribed until I attend a medication review at the surgery.'

I am a patient that could be considered within the 'at risk' group with the out break of Corona Virus, my medication is for asthma,

Just heard it going through my voice messages - I am in shock !

I got the same thing wrt my anxiety meds. No way I'm stepping in a GP surgery at the moment. Will do without my meds.

[Frost HoIIow]

5 minutes ago, HighPressure said:

Can I ask what peoples thoughts are on this :

I received a answerphone message at 5.45pm on Thursday evening my doctors practice with the following information:

'All my medication has been stopped / no further medication will be prescribed until I attend a medication review at the surgery.'

I am a patient that could be considered within the 'at risk' group with the out break of Corona Virus, my medication is for asthma,

Just heard it going through my voice messages - I am in shock !

Had a similar thing. But it was printed on my repeat prescription that the pharmacist gave me for my next lot of medication. Very odd. Seems like someone is ordering GP surgeries to do this?

[Cheshire Freeze]

If/when I get this virus I plan to just weld myself into bed and try to rest my body as much as possible. If it's anything like other viruses, going about your normal day to day activities whilst suffering will just prolong and make it worse.

[Guest Delete Me]

There isn't a 3rd strain, only S & L.

[Guest Delete Me]

25 cases in Brazil now which is really bad news, once it reaches the favala's theres no controlling it

[Daniel*]

I don’t find this very funny after today....

 

[alexisj9]

14 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

25 cases in Brazil now which is really bad news, once it reaches the favala's theres no controlling it

Is it spreading person to person down there, or is it all from people who have travelled? 

[matt111]

Just been told a relative of mine is in an isolation unit in Winchester being tested right now  

[Cheshire Freeze]

27 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Just been told a relative of mine is in an isolation unit in Winchester being tested right now  

Hope all is well when all said and done. This is going to affect a lot of us in one way or another.