Novel Coronavirus – China

[swebby]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Agreed, but I think anyone would have to admit that is a HUGE disparity between Germany and Italy and the numbers of people who for example are being hospitalised. Surely we aren't saying that Italy's health services is many many times worse than Germany, or that the population of Italy is many times older than Germany? FWIW the median age of Germany is actually a touch older than Italy (45.9 vs 45.4) so that is not the reason either.

Its just hard to see any logical reason there can be such a huge difference, other than a variation of the strain of virus?

But your right, no one really knows!

 

Yes, possibly Kold, but I honestly think it is simply a case that Northern Italy is overwhelmed. The 5% they have in Northern italy is strikingly similar to Wuhan?  I've got to head home now, but if someone wants to check the figures for various Italian regions, this could tell a story?

[ArHu3]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Agreed, but I think anyone would have to admit that is a HUGE disparity between Germany and Italy and the numbers of people who for example are being hospitalised. Surely we aren't saying that Italy's health services is many many times worse than Germany, or that the population of Italy is many times older than Germany? FWIW the median age of Germany is actually a touch older than Italy (45.9 vs 45.4) so that is not the reason either.

Its just hard to see any logical reason there can be such a huge difference, other than a variation of the strain of virus?

But your right, no one really knows!

 

It could also be due to different medical practices or insurance policies. If you want to kill weak vulnerable older people just put them in a hospital, the perfect breeding ground for the nastiest secondary infections, do you want pseudomonas or mrsa,  just get admitted into a hospital,  especially with compromised lung epithelium. That might just have been what Italy has been doing 

Edited March 8, 2020 by ArHu3

[Bedknobs and Boomsticks]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Agreed, but I think anyone would have to admit that is a HUGE disparity between Germany and Italy and the numbers of people who for example are being hospitalised. Surely we aren't saying that Italy's health services is many many times worse than Germany, or that the population of Italy is many times older than Germany? FWIW the median age of Germany is actually a touch older than Italy (45.9 vs 45.4) so that is not the reason either.

Its just hard to see any logical reason there can be such a huge difference, other than a variation of the strain of virus?

But your right, no one really knows!

 

Or that Italy has missed an awful lot of cases. A lot of the European cases seem to have stemmed from Italy, suggesting both that they should be the same strain, and that there are a hell of a lot of Italians infected for travellers to catch it off. 

I hope so anyway. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Bedknobs and Boomsticks said:

Or that Italy has missed an awful lot of cases. A lot of the European cases seem to have stemmed from Italy, suggesting both that they should be the same strain, and that there are a hell of a lot of Italians infected for travellers to catch it off. 

I hope so anyway. 

From how many cases seem to be stemming from there, I wouldn't be surprised if the actual number of people infected was 100x greater than the official figure.

[nick sussex]

Apparently the NHS is taking 5 days to confirm test results . 

If that’s true then the figures they’re releasing need to be viewed with that in mind . 

The reporting of the 3rd UK death this evening . A man in his 60s .

He had underlying health issues and had recently travelled from an infected region . The CMO was keen to stress his underlying health issues but he was clearly sufficiently well to go on holiday so how sick could he have been before the virus .

The thing I find rather unpalatable is this sort of underlying narrative that people were sick anyway so it’s well no great loss and might have happened down the line!

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The thing I find rather unpalatable is this sort of underlying narrative that people were sick anyway so it’s well no great loss and might have happened down the line!

The cynic in me thinks this is all to prevent full on panic amongst the general public. The elderly are less likely to go out looting and causing social issues.

I dread to think what would happen if they went out claiming it was killing young, healthy people too.

Edited March 8, 2020 by CreweCold

[ArHu3]

6 minutes ago, Bedknobs and Boomsticks said:

Or that Italy has missed an awful lot of cases. A lot of the European cases seem to have stemmed from Italy, suggesting both that they should be the same strain, and that there are a hell of a lot of Italians infected for travellers to catch it off. 

I hope so anyway. 

Want to be locked up for at least 2 weeks, go to the doctor with minor flu like symptoms.... I wouldn't and I suspect many with only minor symptoms won't in the light of this hysteria

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Want to be locked up for at least 2 weeks, go to the doctor with minor flu like symptoms.... I wouldn't and I suspect many with only minor symptoms won't in the light of this hysteria

Nor would i but wouldn't be out spreading it either, given my general health not being great i would be sitting at home hoping symptoms would go but having my finger near the phone in case i might feel like i might be about conk out.

[Snipper]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

.

The thing I find rather unpalatable is this sort of underlying narrative that people were sick anyway so it’s well no great loss and might have happened down the line!

It might be a case of reading too much into every word uttered. 

[ArHu3]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nor would i but wouldn't be out spreading it either, given my general health not being great i would be sitting at home hoping symptoms would go but having my finger near the phone in case i might feel like i might be about conk out.

It would however cause a big underestimation of prevalence and thus a big overestimation of the mortality rate 

[Snipper]

6 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Want to be locked up for at least 2 weeks, go to the doctor with minor flu like symptoms.... I wouldn't and I suspect many with only minor symptoms won't in the light of this hysteria

If you are not suffering unduly why waste the NHS’s time? Not as if they haven’t got anything better to do. Of course this might skew the statistics.

I’d just self medicate and ensure I didn’t cause a spread.

[nick sussex]

Just now, Snipper said:

It might be a case of reading too much into every word uttered. 

No this narrative is being used to mass desensitize the general public .

 

[Snipper]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No this narrative is being used to mass desensitize the general public .

 

Your authority for your comment? Or a gut feeling as you “know” such things?

Not sure what they should say that would be right. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Have we had any official breakdown of the % of people per age range who need hospitalisation and if not, why not?

[Snipper]

These people treated Sars, Ebola and swine flu: what is their advice on beating coronavirus?

APPLE.NEWS

---

News As Europe struggles to contain Covid-19, some of the country's leading health and science experts reflect on the previous outbreaks they have witnessed on the frontline and the lessons that can...

 

[bobbarley]

5 new cases in Northern Ireland

[feb1991blizzard]

29 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

It would however cause a big underestimation of prevalence and thus a big overestimation of the mortality rate 

It would quite right, but then prove it very contagious, it doesn't matter whether you have 1 million people die from  1 million cases or 1 million die from 7 billion cases, 1 million dead is 1 million dead.

[nick sussex]

27 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Your authority for your comment? Or a gut feeling as you “know” such things?

Not sure what they should say that would be right. 

I don’t normally discuss my work side but fair enough .

It is in the area of psychology and counselling . But regardless the portrayal of the virus asks questions as to who we value in society and the worth of that individual.

Its also a cultural thing . The elderly are much more revered in more Southern European countries . I speak from experience being from Cypriot heritage.

All life is precious and all life deserves equal respect. I don’t like the attitude of “ its terrible but really only effects older people “ .

Which is the sense I’m getting from the narrative out there .

Edited March 8, 2020 by nick sussex

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

As the pub run rolls, some comments:

This coronavirus:

How does the weather affect it?  Is this known?  All well and good to be trying to push it into summer, but there are cases in Australia, it isn't cold there, as per GFS 18z T12:

 

 

[lottiekent]

If France is restricting gatherings of over 1,000 are they going to close Disneyland? 
 

Edit: just wondered, as if so that’s a lot of jobs affected in one location.

Edited March 8, 2020 by lottiekent

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, lottiekent said:

If France is restricting gatherings of over 1,000 are they going to close Disneyland? 

Thats a really good point, because whilst not an 'event' per say, no denying its a gathering that gets literally many thousands of visitors a day.

[nick sussex]

Just now, lottiekent said:

If France is restricting gatherings of over 1,000 are they going to close Disneyland? 

Not sure , it’s not really clear . Is it a mass gathering where you’re confined in one place for a reasonable length of time. If you can walk around in the open air in places like Disneyland would that count ? 

[Zak M]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Daniel*]

To lighten the mood.