Novel Coronavirus – China

[emax]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I agree, I personally think this is probably more like the Hong Kong 68-69 outbreak (0.5 CFR - 1 million deaths) however it really is just a pure guess isn't it, the fact no one really knows is probably fueling some of the crazy panic buying we are seeing.

Could end up fading away as soon as we reach May, or it may continue to blow up across the world, who knows!

Also, the expansion of the internet/social media in the last 10 years alone, is enough to fuel hysteria. You're getting every piece of info/data/opinion whether true or false live, all the time, constantly! This is good because there'll be very few in the UK alone who havent heard of this virus, so everyone can take their own measures. However, that is also a bad effect, as people panic buy and worry so much they actually do end up ill. Even 10 years ago, the hysteria would be minimal compared to now, which is why this virus is being compared to the Spanish Flu etc.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Snipper]

14 minutes ago, Azazel said:

The cynic in me believes they want it to decimate the population - things like this alongside Boris’ smug ‘take it on the chin’ comments on TV.

Why? Not sure.

A conspiracy at every corner?

Edited March 8, 2020 by Snipper

[Zak M]

The Milan webcam is showing it too. 

Live Cam Milan Cathedral

WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM

---

View over the Milan Cathedral, the Galleria and the equestrian statue of Vittorio Emanuele II

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by Zak M

[Guest Delete Me]

Edited March 8, 2020 by Delete Me

[Snipper]

11 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Me too on both counts I'm afraid.

From the outset of this thread been academically and morbidly interested. Not currently afraid just very concerned. 

[Snipper]

2 minutes ago, Donegal said:

I'm going to get patches tomorrow and quit cigarettes. I'll be that much of a crabbit psycho corona won't come near me. 

Damage done?  Good reason to stop in any event for a long term future. Look on the optimistic side. 

[alexisj9]

22 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Feb you should take care with those pain medications, especially being a drinker! And I ask this question to all on here.... Are any of you feeling worse the more this virus spreads? The more you read up on it, the more you listen to the horror stories! I suffer with general anxiety disorder, meaning I can feel I have every complaint going, and if I haven't got it now, I soon will. If I had a quid for everytime I've mentally suffered a heart attack, a hemorrhage, a stroke, you name it, I would be now richer than president donald.. I ask this because when you become extremely stressed out, and if this is on top of working hard, and gym work, running, whatever your poison... You can very often feel like you have the onset of flu... When the nervous system tires, you can basically feel like bolied crap.. Worth taking into consideration when your stressing all day. Most of us will remain well when all is said and done. 

No I feel perfectly fine for now, apart from post opp pain. 

[Summer Sun]

Breaking: 3rd death in England confirmed at the North Manchester General Hospital the patient had significant underlying health conditions and had travelled from an affected area.

Edited March 8, 2020 by Summer Sun

[Spikecollie]

7 minutes ago, Donegal said:

I'm going to get patches tomorrow and quit cigarettes. I'll be that much of a crabbit psycho corona won't come near me. 

Please try and quit smoking, Donegal. It's far more of a threat to your body than any virus ever will be but it'll make you more susceptible to the effects of any you get. Take up vaping - I did and it worked for me...

[emax]

12 minutes ago, Azazel said:

The cynic in me believes they want it to decimate the population - things like this alongside Boris’ smug ‘take it on the chin’ comments on TV.

Why? Not sure.

I think that's a little over the top lol

Because its already here, they probably have decided not to waste the resources on testing or checks or whatever, and if that is true, I can understand why. However, the latest PHE advice is mandatory isolation for people returning from certain zones with no symptoms, and and those with symptoms from any of the affected countries. This is about the best they can realistically do, however it wouldn't cost much for someone to be handing out leaflets at least, or even just get someone to pop on the plane before every one disembarks, and announce that they should all self isolate, so that is a fail in my opinion.

Bare in mind though, that guy flew from Milan, and there was nothing in Milan either. I appreciate the Italians probably arent focused on the virus leaving their country, but even still, they have a responsibility to do at least something with outbound flights.

[ArHu3]

34 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s not Spanish flu  .

The life care situation is terrible but as soon as I see Spanish flu in a tweet that really ruins what might otherwise be an important report for credibility .

They can both induce a cytokine storm but the spanish flu did so in the strong and healthy, corona only in the weak and elderly 

[alexisj9]

28 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

60% of the entire Muslin population of Italy lives in the north.  Wouldn't take much of a leap of the imagination to consider that it originated from Iran and was imported there via returning/traveling pilgrims/family members.

Or the other way around. 

[Snipper]

25 minutes ago, Azazel said:

The cynic in me believes they want it to decimate the population - things like this alongside Boris’ smug ‘take it on the chin’ comments on TV.

Why? Not sure.

Why would Boris want kill A lot of elderly people when they might have been the ones who voted him in?

[snefnug]

6 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Please try and quit smoking, Donegal. It's far more of a threat to your body than any virus ever will be but it'll make you more susceptible to the effects of any you get. Take up vaping - I did and it worked for me...

Back in 2010 when I gave up, after years of smoking after 20  years, I tried them nicotine patches (wore the then took them off when I wanted a cigarette).  I met a woman five years older than me with  the face of a dried shammy leather,  vanity made me give up and I took up knitting, to keep my hands busy.  I now have fab knitted socks, gloves, hats, cardies, and smoke free lungs.  Just find the push button of no return. 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Snipper said:

Why would Boris want kill A lot of elderly people when they might have been the ones who voted him in?

Perhaps he's in league with the Lizard People?

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Donegal said:

I vaped for one year the last time I quit but slowly got back in to smoking. Going to try it without vaping this time and see how it goes. It's horrible going off them but needs to be done. 

Nicorette spray is brill, and almost certainly safer than vaping.

[alexisj9]

11 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

They can both induce a cytokine storm but the spanish flu did so in the strong and healthy, corona only in the weak and elderly 

The problem I have with that is quite simply, its not the virus that decides if someone's immune system will go into over drive or not. 

[Zak M]

 

[Snipper]

10 minutes ago, Zak M said:

 

Not inclined to take much notice of that when not even headed by the right name of the virus

Edited March 8, 2020 by Snipper

[swebby]

Okay, there appears to be a couple of ideas circulating on the forum which people may be getting carried away with?

I understand why people are running with them, because it creates the idea that the virus has been knocking about for a while, and so people then wonder if they've had it and are now immune.

Theory #1 - The virus may have been about in the uk since last Autumn?

The big issue with this idea is that the UK is doing random testing of people presenting with flu like symptoms, and has been doing this for a couple of weeks. These random tests have only picked up a few cases, two at kings college hospital London, and i believe the death at Milton Keynes that i know of.  If the virus has been circulating for 4-5 months, there would be a large number of positives in the random tests, so far that does not appear to be the case.

Theory #2 - The virus has two (or more) strains, one being a lot worse than the other?

Yes the virus appears to have at least two strains. But the paper that designated a L and S type strains in China was only looking at the evolution timeline of strains and trying to track that back to indicate a possible host species.  At no stage did it state that one strain was more dangerous than the other. The disparity in the figures for Wuhan compared to the rest of china is almost certainly down to the local health services being swamped, not because they had one strain rather than another. I have heard that the strain circulating in Italy may not be the same as that in S.Korea, likewise for the USA. I've no idea if this is true, but again, the deaths in Italy are probably down to the stress on their health service, combined with a very old population, not because their local  virus is inherently more dangerous.

I've no issue with people discussing ideas like this, but posters do need to remember that those discussions may be taken further afield on SM and leads to unhelpful theories going viral ('scuse the pun) so maybe clearly caveat that what you are posting are your own ideas and are not substantiated in anyway? 

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by swebby

[emax]

Just a little word on underlying conditions etc.

According to the British Lung Foundation (and it seems the figures are from 2012, and rising, so probably more now), on average 13,500 people are admitted to hospital every single week, for 2 or more days with some form of lung disease. They also claim that someone dies from lung disease in the UK every 5 mins (thats obviously on average). 10,000 people are diagnosed with lung disease every week. Roughly 6,000,000 people are on medication for some form of lung disease (mainly inhalers).

Now obviously the worriers could argue that it means at least 6 million people are at risk from this virus, but I personally find it more telling that people dont go around panic buying worrying about lung disease, or closing down airports or shutting down anything that has even the slightest amount of pollution/emissions. I still think just a little bit of perspective is needed when you compare these figures.

......For now at least. I mean who's to say this virus doesnt kill half the planet over 10 years somehow (you couldnt rule it out, but you'd be clinically mad if you actually thought this would happen), but if you worried about every single thing that could make you ill/kill you, you'd never leave your house, and never see anyone.

[swebby]

36 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Damage done?  Good reason to stop in any event for a long term future. Look on the optimistic side. 

Even just a few weeks off will be a benefit, lung function will improve, and any improvement will help in the event viral pneumonia develops. Absolutely correct about long term stuff.  

I'm only a social smoker but knocked it on the head when i saw it was using ACE2 as a means to infect, and the outcome could be pneumonia.

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, swebby said:

I have heard that the strain circulating in Italy may not be the same as that in S.Korea, likewise for the USA. I've no idea if this is true, but again, the deaths in Italy are probably down to the stress on their health service, combined with a very old population, not because their local  virus is inherently more dangerous.

I've no issue with people discussing ideas like this, but posters do need to remember that those discussions may be taken further afield on SM and leads to unhelpful theories going viral ('scuse the pun) so maybe clearly caveat that what you are posting are your own ideas and are not substantiated in anyway? 

 

Agreed, but I think anyone would have to admit that is a HUGE disparity between Germany and Italy and the numbers of people who for example are being hospitalised. Surely we aren't saying that Italy's health services is many many times worse than Germany, or that the population of Italy is many times older than Germany? FWIW the median age of Germany is actually a touch older than Italy (45.9 vs 45.4) so that is not the reason either.

Its just hard to see any logical reason there can be such a huge difference, other than a variation of the strain of virus? Occam's razor would lead me to there first given such a monumental difference. The other thing it could realistic be is Germany is doing mad amount of testing and shutting every known case down instantly. South Korea has shown great success at doing something like that, but without knowing how many tests Germany has done, not sure if that could be the case or not.

But your right, no one really knows!

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by kold weather

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, swebby said:

Even just a few weeks off will be a benefit, lung function will improve, and any improvement will help in the event viral pneumonia develops. Absolutely correct about long term stuff.  

I'm only a social smoker but knocked it on the head when i saw it was using ACE2 as a means to infect, and the outcome could be pneumonia.

Yep, quit myself 10 days ago. Hoping a couple of weeks off it will see at least some improvement in lung health.