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Novel Coronavirus – China


Snipper

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
34 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I’ve read peoples opinions and interpretations because I’m not smart enough to make my own conclusions.

some chatter about smoking actually being beneficial in the sense it inhibits ACE2 expression making it harder for the virus to get in.

would be absolutely bizarre and so very very ironic if smoking actually had a chance at saving your life.

I read somewhere else it was the complete opposite, be interesting if thinking on this has moved on though.  

This article suggests ACE2 is the reason smokers are at greater risk

GettyImages-1201476588.jpg?resize=1200,6
WWW.GOOGLE.CO.UK

China's sky high smoking rate among men may help explain why they're more susceptible to coronavirus infection and death.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Something really doesn't make sense with the Italy numbers. It takes a week or 2 to kill you so when the death numbers are compared to the cases reported last week, which was about 200 per day then that is really high. They must be missing thousands of cases.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
5 minutes ago, pip22 said:

Disclose.tv

@disclosetv·1m

BREAKING - Italy reports 778 new #COVID19 cases and 49 new deaths, total now 4,636 coronavirus infections, 197 dead.

Yep a decent amount, thankfully not a huge rise in terms of comparing with yesterdays numbers per day.

Still that death total is really starting to rachet up in Italy.

Just as a reminder, Swine Flu was estimated to kill about 284,000 by WHO over an 18ish month period. So that is our first possible target, blow past that and then we reach the 60/70s outbreaks (Hong Kong outbreak from the 60s I believe?) which I think was in the 1mil range...go past that and then we are getting into the real big leagues...

However my gut is we don't get to those levels, maybe something approaching the Hong Kong outbreak but obviously hope it doesn't go near that level!

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

Man in chemist shop: ‘What can I use to disinfect kitchen surfaces against this coronavirus?’

Woman behind counter: ‘Ammonia cleaner’.

Man: ‘Oh sorry, I thought you were serving

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
skynews-coronavirus-indonesia_4940052.jp
NEWS.SKY.COM

Johns Hopkins University, which is tracking the outbreak, says the coronavirus has caused the deaths of 3,398 people.

Over 700 new infections in Italy? The country is literally getting pounded.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Major wakeup call for Governments world wide. Imagine if it had a fatality rate of 10% to 20% or even a death rate like Ebola. They need to go back once this is over and draw up proper plans on how deal with such situations.

Heard an expert discussing re-infections so you may get it twice. Although possibly this maybe a case of not getting rid off it or a weakened immune system.

So far 56107 people have recovered as of now.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Just now, The PIT said:

Major wakeup call for Governments world wide. Imagine if it had a fatality rate of 10% to 20% or even a death rate like Ebola. They need to go back once this is over and draw up proper plans on how deal with such situations.

Heard an expert discussing re-infections so you may get it twice. Although possibly this maybe a case of not getting rid off it or a weakened immune system.

So far 56107 people have recovered as of now.

 

 

 

Worth remembering the estimated mortality rate for the Spanish Flu was around 2.5%, which seems to be at least in the ballpark of where this is at the moment, though obviously way too early to make any real estimates of where that figure will end up. gives an idea of what the upper limit may end up being though,

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
47 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Something really doesn't make sense with the Italy numbers. It takes a week or 2 to kill you so when the death numbers are compared to the cases reported last week, which was about 200 per day then that is really high. They must be missing thousands of cases.

If you read the letter from clinicians, someone posted yesterday, you'll see cases are arriving at hospital with a very poor survival outcome. There doesn't seem to be the long stays in ICU before death announced.

Just to add... the very first case (38 year old marathon runner) is still in intensive care along with approx 400 others. Situation is apparently desperate in locked down communities.

Quote

Nowhere is the situation more acute than in the areas under quarantine. In Castiglione d’Adda, a town of 4,600 in Lombardy, 18 people have died within the past two weeks and, as of Thursday, 121 inhabitants were infected. The youngest victim was a 55-year-old man; it is unclear whether he had an underlying illness. With three of the town’s five doctors in quarantine and two hospitalised with the virus, there is nobody to tend to the sick at home.

“We have many people with a fever who are at home and who are unable to be visited by a doctor,” Costantino Pesatori, the mayor of Castiglione d’Adda, told the Guardian. “A substitute doctor came but he wasn’t provided with protective clothing and so, justifiably, refused to see people at home.”

 

Edited by Gael_Force
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Worth remembering the estimated mortality rate for the Spanish Flu was around 2.5%, which seems to be at least in the ballpark of where this is at the moment, though obviously way too early to make any real estimates of where that figure will end up. gives an idea of what the upper limit may end up being though,

Made worse by the 1st world war as well remember.

Worth watching too see what happens in Africa. If starts rampaging there then we'll know summer temperatures won't stop it.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
1 hour ago, Azazel said:

I’ve read peoples opinions and interpretations because I’m not smart enough to make my own conclusions.

some chatter about smoking actually being beneficial in the sense it inhibits ACE2 expression making it harder for the virus to get in.

would be absolutely bizarre and so very very ironic if smoking actually had a chance at saving your life.

Still not read this paper, but caution with the smoking being beneficial bit.

I posted a review way back near the start of the thread which indicated that nicotine may down regulate (reduce production of) ACE2 in the lungs.  This could be the "chatter" you have seen?  The authors noted this result as unexpected, but they were focusing on nicotine as they were looking at possible ill effects of vapping in the review. The effect of a single stimuli, nicotine, is not the same as saying smoking reduces the amount of ACE2 as there are plenty of other chemicals in cigarette smoke that may directly regulate ACE2 production, plus smoking could lead to other factors that indirectly effect ACE2 production.  Cell signaling pathways are a nightmare of complexity, you think you find an enzyme does one thing, or is effected in a specific way by a chemical only to find it does the exact opposite in a different part of the body or under different conditions.

Maybe, just maybe, smoking could reduce the likelihood of coming down with Covid-19. BUT what i can state with certainty is that smoking and viral pnuemonia which may result from Covid-19 is a really bad combination if you are after a positive outcome.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
8 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Made worse by the 1st world war as well remember.

Worth watching too see what happens in Africa. If starts rampaging there then we'll know summer temperatures won't stop it.

Oh yes of course, I don't think we are going to end up at that sort of level unless things really go wrong (even for some reason we do go higher in absolute numbers, as a percentage of the worlds population I don't think its going to be anywhere near that.)

Still I think this is clearly going to go down as a noteworthy pandemic (regardless if whether its 'offically' a pandemic or not...it clearly is)

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl

Mike Pompeo has taken to using the term "Wuhan virus".

This is deeply concerning.

Senior politicians do not often miss-speak or are casual with their language, if he is saying this, he is doing so on purpose and you have to ask yourself why.  The obvious answer is he is playing a blame game - "it's all China's fault".  If he is taking the narrative in that direction, i think the figures in the US may be about to take a real bad turn for the worse?

Quote from the beeb

Quote

 

Diplomatic row brewing over 'Wuhan virus' comments

AFP/Getty ImagesCopyright: AFP/Getty Images

A mini-diplomatic row may be brewing after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo described the coronavirus as the "Wuhan virus" - for the second day in a row.

Asked in a CNBC interview on Friday about the success of China's response to the outbreak, Mr Pompeo said: "I'm happy you complimented the Chinese Communist Party today, but remember this is the Wuhan coronavirus that's caused this."

And a day earlier, Mr Pompeo spoke about the "Wuhan virus' spread" when referring to US aid for countries hit by the virus.

His comments are likely to anger China, which is yet to publicly comment on the issue.

The novel coronavirus is believed to have originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan last year.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Rather than squabbling about what names it's been given perhaps they should behave like adults and start planning. Actually China has to take a large amount of the blame because they tried to cover it up. Other Governments will have take some blame as they seemingly haven't got a plan on how to deal with the the issue.

Like Japan and I think South Korea who throwing the toys out of the pram over quarantine. 

Arguing isn't going to solve anything because by the time you've got tired of shouting you still in the same situation.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
55 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Major wakeup call for Governments world wide. Imagine if it had a fatality rate of 10% to 20% or even a death rate like Ebola. They need to go back once this is over and draw up proper plans on how deal with such situations.

Heard an expert discussing re-infections so you may get it twice. Although possibly this maybe a case of not getting rid off it or a weakened immune system.

So far 56107 people have recovered as of now.

 

 

 

I've read how the relevant scientific fields were less than impressed with the global response after the SARS epidemic petered out. Basically politicians were nonchalant and rather than taking SARS as the warning it should have been, decided that investment in areas to mitigate and/or respond to a global epidemic were not of great value.

We may be very lucky with Covid-19 if it comes out with a CFR of 1%, that is enough to give all politicians the proverbial kick up the back side and for the public to be angry with health and science investment levels but low enough not to be catastrophic. If SARS at 10% had progressed like this, you would be looking at significant effects in world order. MERS at a 30% CFR would have turned civilisation it's head.

Edited by swebby
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
16 minutes ago, swebby said:

Mike Pompeo has taken to using the term "Wuhan virus".

This is deeply concerning.

Senior politicians do not often miss-speak or are casual with their language, if he is saying this, he is doing so on purpose and you have to ask yourself why.  The obvious answer is he is playing a blame game - "it's all China's fault".  If he is taking the narrative in that direction, i think the figures in the US may be about to take a real bad turn for the worse?

Quote from the beeb

 

Comments like this from politicians really do not help, when it comes to people attacking others because the virus is in there country, as posted earlier on this thread. 

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
17 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Rather than squabbling about what names it's been given perhaps they should behave like adults and start planning. Actually China has to take a large amount of the blame because they tried to cover it up. Other Governments will have take some blame as they seemingly haven't got a plan on how to deal with the the issue.

Like Japan and I think South Korea who throwing the toys out of the pram over quarantine. 

Arguing isn't going to solve anything because by the time you've got tired of shouting you still in the same situation.

 

No, but it might just mean you don't get tagged with the blame for it, and at the end of the day, that's unfortunately what most politicians are about.

Edited by swebby
edit - missed a crucial word or two! D'oh!
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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl

From the Gurniaad

Quote

 

Demand for hand sanitiser has reached fever pitch in the UK, with one hospital reporting that and sanitising gel is being stolen by visitors on a daily basis. According to a report by the PA News Agency:

Bosses at Northampton General Hospital said sanitising gel had been disappearing from the ends of ward beds “every single day” this week.

Three wall-mounted dispensers have been ripped off, while visitors have used the hospital’s supply of sanitiser to “top up” their own bottles.

A Northampton General Hospital spokeswoman told the BBC: “Nothing like this has ever happened in all the years we’ve had the gel.”

It comes as retailers reported a surge in demand for hand sanitiser, which has has left some shelves empty of the product.

In total, 163 people had tested positive for Covid-19 as of 9am on Friday, up from 115 cases reported at the same time on Thursday.

Sally-Anne Watts, the hospital’s associate communications director, told the BBC: “Over the past week we’ve seen stocks on wards disappear from the end of beds every single day.

“Three wall-mounted dispensers have been ripped off and we’ve even seen people coming in and topping up their own dispensers with our product.”

 

Wow! Just wow!

It is put there to protect patients, the most vulnerable in society to secondary infections.

Yet again i find myself wondering if i should actually be rooting for Covid-19. It's just a minority i tell myself, but still.......

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

Germany has reached 700 + cases now.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, pip22 said:

Germany has reached 700 + cases now.

As I said yesterday, will be at 1000 within a few days, France probably 1-2 days behind, and the the UK probably 7-8 days away IMO. Hoping this isn't a slow spring and we get a good early warm up to help reduce the efficiency of the viral spread across Europe.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
20 minutes ago, Donegal said:

I had an idea regarding this. Nato countries are supposed to spend 2% of their GDP per annum on military spending. 

Counties around the world put a tiny fraction of their GDP away each year for the next pandemic. Governments of the world also set up a Pandemic fund where they make tiny yearly contributions to it. Independent of everything else. Each nation has one representative. 

So the next time a Pandemic crops up they don't have to worry about the global economy and put people first. The money in this fund can be used to stimulate the business sectors for example airlines to keep them alive while they're grounded. To put loads of resources and completely shut down the area where the virus originates to contain it immediately. 

Something has to happen anyway that's for sure. It has to be a united effort. Every country doing their own thing gets us nowhere in situations like this. 10x times the amount of flights today compared to Sars in 2003. We're just too connected to be this unprepared in the future. 

Yes! Contributions toward the fight against cancer too. There are more "fights against" in this world than fights against each other. Your comment "every country doing there own thing gets us nowhere" is so telling. That's why we need solid European collaboration and indeed a much stronger United Nations. This isolationsim of countries has to stop - a situation like this shows us that no country is, can be or can work alone...

Edited by Spikecollie
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