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Novel Coronavirus – China


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Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Weather Preferences: windy
  • Location: Motherwell
11 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Early on in this thread somebody posted this which I saved.

We are wayyyy ahead of schedule. Alarming really.

By the 8th March it predicted 40,663 cumulative infections and 1,220 deaths from the disease. We are on over 100k and nearly 4k deaths 2 days sooner.

We are well on course to hit 7.7 billion cases by 20th September and if the WHO mortality rate of 3 percent holds true, 231 million deaths.

wuh.png

That must be assuming that there's no attempts to stop it surely? I'd be very confident in predicting that everybody on the planet will not have had it in 6 months time.Even if it doesn't die back during the summer the numbers will be in the millions not billions.

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Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Location: Portsmouth
4 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

That must be assuming that there's no attempts to stop it surely? I'd be very confident in predicting that everybody on the planet will not have had it in 6 months time.Even if it doesn't die back during the summer the numbers will be in the millions not billions.

I think this assumes my worst fear which is when attempts to curtail the spread become impossible and access to treatment is non existent.

I'm praying it never gets to that point but i think it's not out of the question.

And what happens when people are too afraid to go out or go to work?

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
20 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I'm sorry but it also infects our fecal matter and so the 'transfer' is not just reliant on someone coughing/sneezing on their hands and then 'transferring' it to a surface?

If you've ever been on a ward when Norovirus has broken out you'll know just how quickly such transfer travels around the community?

Hi GW, Norovirus, is exceptionally contagious and i'd be cautious about drawing comparisons with Covid-19 and the transmission pathways for gastric infections.

I'm not saying fecal-oral transmission should be ignored with Covid-19, and certainly not in hospitals or with young children, but it is a respiratory infection, so the contaminated surface contact pathway will be the most important consideration

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
57 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Early on in this thread somebody posted this which I saved.

We are wayyyy ahead of schedule. Alarming really.

By the 8th March it predicted 40,663 cumulative infections and 1,220 deaths from the disease. We are on over 100k and nearly 4k deaths 2 days sooner.

We are well on course to hit 7.7 billion cases by 20th September and if the WHO mortality rate of 3 percent holds true, 231 million deaths.

wuh.png

This isn’t a model it’s a basic spreadsheet.

I’d love to get the excel file and run through the assumptions and inputs pages with some experts.  Needs auditing before consuming.   

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
4 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Maybe some good news

 

 

Wouldn’t that be all over the news by now . 18 hours ago and unless governments want their economies to crash then surely this new found break through would be making headline news and they’d be going public with it .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Wouldn’t that be all over the news by now . 18 hours ago and unless governments want their economies to crash then surely this new found break through would be making headline news and they’d be going public with it .

 

I’m not sure.

reading through the technical jargon it seems the paper was only published today or yesterday. I don’t really know how these things get from the lab to the consumer.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

I suppose no tests = no new cases. 

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
9 minutes ago, swebby said:

The actual paper

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30229-4.pdf

Not read it yet, so no idea if this is a viable treatment. 

I’ve read peoples opinions and interpretations because I’m not smart enough to make my own conclusions.

some chatter about smoking actually being beneficial in the sense it inhibits ACE2 expression making it harder for the virus to get in.

would be absolutely bizarre and so very very ironic if smoking actually had a chance at saving your life.

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Wouldn’t that be all over the news by now . 18 hours ago and unless governments want their economies to crash then surely this new found break through would be making headline news and they’d be going public with it .

 

Only been done in cell lines. I think the comments say it's approved for use in Japan so maybe they could start using it, but it would be in a trial format and we would have to wait at least a few weeks for the results of that.

Edited by Snowy L
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Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Location: Portsmouth
2 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I’ve read peoples opinions and interpretations because I’m not smart enough to make my own conclusions.

some chatter about smoking actually being beneficial in the sense it inhibits ACE2 expression making it harder for the virus to get in.

would be absolutely bizarre and so very very ironic if smoking actually had a chance at saving your life.

Now watch all the cigarettes sell out!!

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Posted
  • Location: Matlock
  • Location: Matlock

New poster here; came for Storm Ciara but stayed for the Corona virus.

For people talking about modelling, its actually very easy to do. Open up an excel sheet. Start on say row 10, and manually set B9 =1, C9 = 1, D9 = 0, F9 = date of start of outbreak

Column A: R0 number = ? (4 works well for current European outbreaks, reducing rapidly once serious control measures kick in for places like Italy, S Korea and China)

Column B: Total infected = C10+B9

Column C : Total infected per incubation period = A9*C9*(1-D9)

Column D : Proportion of population infected = B10 / 65,000,000 (for UK)

Column E: Incubation period = ? (again, 4 works well for current European outbreaks)

Column F: Date = F9 + E10

Now drag Row 10 down for a terrifying demonstration of the power of exponential growth, plus an interesting demonstration of how herd immunity can stabilise infection at below 100%.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To remove a big blank space.
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
9 minutes ago, swebby said:

The actual paper

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30229-4.pdf

Not read it yet, so no idea if this is a viable treatment. 

The discussion part is interesting . There’s currently a drug licensed which uses camostat mesilate which researchers showed managed to block the entry of the virus into the lungs but clinical trials would be needed . That drug is already licensed in Japan but for pancreatis.

The issue here of course is that you’d have to start this drug before entry into the lungs and it’s not a case of giving patients or their families a chance to use this as a measure of last resort.

Once reaction to the virus has lead to pneumonia then this drug I wouldn’t have thought could be of much benefit .

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The discussion part is interesting . There’s currently a drug licensed which uses camostat mesilate which researchers showed managed to block the entry of the virus into the lungs but clinical trials would be needed . That drug is already licensed in Japan but for pancreatis.

The issue here of course is that you’d have to start this drug before entry into the lungs and it’s not a case of giving patients or their families a chance to use this as a measure of last resort.

Once reaction to the virus has lead to pneumonia then this drug I wouldn’t have thought could be of much benefit .

From quick glance it looks like it stops it spreading to other cells in your lungs too, so hopefully could result in a milder disease.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
13 minutes ago, thundercrazy said:

Now watch all the cigarettes sell out!!

It'll sure make Mike Pence happy!

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
42 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Maybe some good news

 

 

So what's a protease inhibitor, something like tamiflu? 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
28 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

I suppose no tests = no new cases. 

Serious he is such a buffoon, when USA jumps into the 1000s next week when proper tests finally happen he is going to look the fool.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

So what's a protease inhibitor, something like tamiflu? 

I think that a protease in an enzyme that cuts-up proteins, and a protease inhibitor slows down that process?

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: North Cornwall 187ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Thunder & Lightning, Snow.
  • Location: North Cornwall 187ft asl

Has links to data sources

60674295?s=400&v=4
GITHUB.COM

Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases, provided by JHU CSSE - CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

 

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

So what's a protease inhibitor, something like tamiflu? 

Not massively sure haha.

ive read quite a bit now on the efficacy of Chloroquine which is being used to treat people in China and The Netherlands. It seems to be pretty effective?

also available without prescription in the UK. It’s an anti malarial 

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Posted
  • Location: North Cornwall 187ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Thunder & Lightning, Snow.
  • Location: North Cornwall 187ft asl
323872_1100-732x549.jpg
WWW.MEDICALNEWSTODAY.COM

Protease inhibitors are a class of HIV medication. They block the function of HIV protease enzymes. Taken with other antiretroviral drugs, protease inhibitors help prevent HIV from multiplying. Brand...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

Disclose.tv

@disclosetv·1m

BREAKING - Italy reports 778 new #COVID19 cases and 49 new deaths, total now 4,636 coronavirus infections, 197 dead.

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