Novel Coronavirus – China

[nick sussex]

The seasonal effect is because of a range of factors .

The flu generally dissipates in the summer because of it running out of hosts , people less cooped up, more ultraviolet impact on the virus , immune systems are generally stronger then aswell.

Warmer countries that currently have the virus may have been in an even worse position without that factor .

It’s very unlikely the current virus won’t reduce during the late spring and summer.

 

[nick sussex]

39 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

According to wiki it's high Roman-Catholic.  Any idea if there a mass communion type thing where they share a single cup that just gets refilled???

It would only take one person early on with the virus to drink from the cup, then everyone further down the line will be directly exposed.

It’s a bit confusing because that church is evangelical which I thought was Protestant.

The vast majority of French people who practice their faith are Catholics though .

That religious festival has now been linked to cases from Corsica to French Guyana in South America! 

The festival took place between the 17 and 24 February , cases started appearing earlier this week .

Either there was a super spreader or something like taking communion if that occurred has gone horribly wrong . 

I’ve read communion isn’t such a big part of being a Protestant but what do evangelicals do .

 

[pip22]

BNO Newsroom

@BNODesk·2m

NEW: French lawmaker Jean-Luc Reitzer has tested positive for coronavirus and is seriously ill - BFMTV

[parrotingfantasist]

Cork hospital cancels all outpatient appointments and is under "lockdown" as a man in his 40s tests positive for coronavirus in intensive care without any contact with known infected patients or travel history to anywhere with an outbreak, so proving my fear that its now spreading freely in Ireland. I reckon in 2 weeks Ireland will see an explosion in cases like in Italy.

First community transmission case of virus in Ireland

WWW.RTE.IE

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Health authorities are trying to trace patients and healthcare staff at Cork University Hospital who may have been in contact with the first case of Covid-19 here that is a result of community transmission.

 

 

 

[nick sussex]

How do families cope if one has the virus and has mild symptoms but told to stay at home .

How do you isolate people from others . If the other members of the family are free of the virus how can they keep it that way . They’re not medical professionals and aren’t used to dealing with this,

These questions are going to become more important over the coming weeks.

[Summer Sun]

138 new cases and 3 new deaths in France today

[Snowyowl9]

Only one form of contagion travels faster than a virus. And that's fear.

[nick sussex]

The US government couldn’t confirm if people who don’t have health insurance could get tested .

Pence and the rest of the Trump arxelickers at the news conference just walked off ignoring the question .

Truly disturbing and this is supposed to be the richest country in the world ! 

Edited March 5, 2020 by nick sussex

[emax]

10 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

Cork hospital cancels all outpatient appointments and is under "lockdown" as a man in his 40s tests positive for coronavirus in intensive care without any contact with known infected patients or travel history to anywhere with an outbreak, so proving my fear that its now spreading freely in Ireland. I reckon in 2 weeks Ireland will see an explosion in cases like in Italy.

First community transmission case of virus in Ireland

WWW.RTE.IE

---

Health authorities are trying to trace patients and healthcare staff at Cork University Hospital who may have been in contact with the first case of Covid-19 here that is a result of community transmission.

 

 

 

Have you got the source for the person being in intensive care? I'm not questioning per se, but if they are in ICU, then BNO for example might be missing lots of ICU admissions?

[nick sussex]

Just now, Donegal said:

Bit premature. 

Did they also poll the uninsured or just some trailer park in Nebraska !

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Donegal said:

Three candidates left to be next president. Three of then in their 70s. One is obese. One's had a heart attack. Three of them attending rallies non stop. Corona could impact their election. 

The virus won’t be able to permeate Trump , apparently his hair lacquer acts as a shield ! But seriously all those crowds are a concern .

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

The biggest worry for me is how many people this is hospitalising. How many people will actively want to go to hospital where they could end up on a trolley in a corridor?? 

I spoke to a couple of people tonight in work and they said they'd rather die at home than in Leighton hospital.

[nick sussex]

The Church Of England isn’t banning communion but just asking people with cold or flu symptoms not to take part .

What happens if someone who has the virus but not symptoms takes part . This advice from the COE looks ridiculous especially as the majority of church goers are more likely to be older .

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

The seasonal effect is because of a range of factors .

The flu generally dissipates in the summer because of it running out of hosts , people less cooped up, more ultraviolet impact on the virus , immune systems are generally stronger then aswell.

Warmer countries that currently have the virus may have been in an even worse position without that factor .

It’s very unlikely the current virus won’t reduce during the late spring and summer.

 

UV does kill viruses so sunnier months in Northern Hemisphere nature perhaps will be more on our side however it will be winter in the Southern Hemisphere.

We will have to say what happens WHO said this disease is not influenza...it is unique and not well understood, if this goes exponential I don’t think warmer weather is going to stamp it out. Might be a bold call but I think we will be dealing with this for reminder of year, it may flare up more later in year. 

I also read humidity is a big factor with effectiveness of aerosol transmission believed to be a vector from this virus, the study below suggests higher transmission rates with lower humidity, humidity is lower in warm months. So we reach that tipping point and it could be very hard to shake off, for all we know it could peak in summer.

“Lowen et al. [8] used a guinea pig model to directly test whether humidity affected aerosol transmission of influenza from infected animals to uninfected animals, housed in adjacent but separate cages in an environmental chamber with five RHs ranging from 20–80% at 20°C. In their study, transmission rates were 75–100% at 20%, 35%, and 65% RH, but only 25% at 50% RH and 0% at 80% RH. However, air samples were not collected to confirm that guinea pigs housed at different RHs shed similar amounts of aerosolized virus.”

High Humidity Leads to Loss of Infectious Influenza Virus from Simulated Coughs

WWW.NCBI.NLM.NIH.GOV

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The role of relative humidity in the aerosol transmission of influenza was examined in a simulated examination room containing coughing and breathing manikins.Nebulized influenza was...

 

 

[Daniel*]

Furthermore to above regarding humidity countries in Southeast Asia are very humid, Singapore I believe has not had a case in a while. While it has warmer climate, it may be the high humidity which is limiting factor. 

Edited March 5, 2020 by Daniel*

[Arctic Hare]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

How do families cope if one has the virus and has mild symptoms but told to stay at home .

How do you isolate people from others . If the other members of the family are free of the virus how can they keep it that way . They’re not medical professionals and aren’t used to dealing with this,

These questions are going to become more important over the coming weeks.

I would definitely like to see these problems addressed in more detail by the authorities, as they're going to be a huge issue for anyone who doesn't live alone, especially if they're not in a largish house. The official advice currently says that the self-isolating person should stay in a room with the door closed and a window to the outside (presumably open) and that where possible they should use a different bathroom from other people in the house. That's all very well for people in houses. It doesn't work for families struggling by in small flats.

It does occur to me that this might (I have no proof at all!) be relevant in the severity of Italy's outbreak. Italian homes are very frequently multi-generational, with children, parents and grandparents all living in the same house all their lives. That means that if the kids are exposed to the virus at school or in the community, their grandparents will be at very high risk of catching it too. In this country, it's less likely, though multi-generational households are no longer a tiny minority here either.

Edited March 5, 2020 by Arctic Hare

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'd personally like to know the prognosis of this illness if just left to run its course without medical intervention. I.e what is the likely % of death in this situation for each age range.

I'm asking because if the NHS is overrun, this is the true figure that we'll be experiencing.

Edited March 5, 2020 by CreweCold

[Summer Sun]

 

[Derecho]

What I find most ironic is that those spreading the most fear tend to be those who deny anthropogenic climate change (i.e. Daily Mail) and dismiss it as scaremongering despite the fact it has an overwhelming scientific consensus. I fear for future generations, I really do.

Edited March 5, 2020 by Quicksilver1989

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'd personally like to know the prognosis of this illness if just left to run its course without medical intervention. I.e what is the likely % of death in this situation for each age range.

I'm asking because if the NHS is overrun, this is the true figure that we'll be experiencing.

If you believe the 80% will only experience mild symptoms then it’s how much of the other 20% .

I don’t think we’ll ever know thankfully what happens in terms of prognosis because it’s very unlikely people won’t receive some treatment .

 

[emax]

50 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

What I find most ironic is that those spreading the most fear tend to be those who deny anthropogenic climate change (i.e. Daily Mail) and dismiss it as scaremongering despite the fact it has an overwhelming scientific consensus. I fear for future generations, I really do.

As much as I completely agree, there is also the other side, where people who hound and harass anyone who denies scientific evidence on AGW (rightly or wrongly) but when it comes to scientists or doctors or "officals" giving info on this virus, those same people are saying that we are being lied to or its being covered up etc etc.

[parrotingfantasist]

2 hours ago, emax said:

Have you got the source for the person being in intensive care? I'm not questioning per se, but if they are in ICU, then BNO for example might be missing lots of ICU admissions?

 

[Derecho]

20 minutes ago, emax said:

As much as I completely agree, there is also the other side, where people who hound and harass anyone who denies scientific evidence on AGW (rightly or wrongly) but when it comes to scientists or doctors or "officals" giving info on this virus, those same people are saying that we are being lied to or its being covered up etc etc.

Agreed, guess there are some people who are concerned about the long term issues of AGW and want to put that across to others to try and do whatever we can to mitigate it. but will base it on scientific reasoning (which I believe I fall into) and then there are others who just want to spread however much fear on any subject they can (regardless of what science says) because they get a kick out of it.

That's not to say that I'm not worried about Coronavirus but papers like the DM are whipping up fears to get attention and to sell copies.

Edited March 6, 2020 by Quicksilver1989

[Frost HoIIow]

Anyone know what happens if it mutates? as they keep talking about it probably doing so but not giving an explanation as to the implications if it does.

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]