Novel Coronavirus – China

[swebby]

10 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

The 1%  death rate was his upper limit, he also said he expects the true figure will be lower.

I suspect this may well be the case, but it is important to caveat it with this figure is based on an assumption that there is a very large number of unreported mild cases.  This is a fair assumption but an assumption none the less.  Reported case numbers are predominantly telling a very different story.

[Azazel]

I sincerely hope there are hundreds of thousands of cases we dont know about - that would suggest the virus is very mild in the vast majority of cases.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

56 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

I would talk to your doctor first before taking any steroids for coronavirus, as experts advise against it.

 

Steroids could do more harm than good in treating coronavirus -- ScienceDaily

WWW.SCIENCEDAILY.COM

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Steroids should be avoided in the treatment of the current novel coronavirus, experts have advised. A commentary article published in...

 

 

Interesting theory. I would certainly not come on here to promote steroid use, especially the more potent anabolic kind. But I'm well aware from being into weight training that these steroids dramatically increase red blood cell production, and some users will point out that they never become ill during a cycle, now matter how hard they hit there central nervous system or immunity! 

[fujita5]

27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And thats the ones we know about - there are probably hundreds of thousands that we don't, only an idiot would think otherwise with such a contagious disease.

I think it's likely there are a few hundred unreported cases, mostly 'silent' community infections, but not hundreds of thousands.

[swebby]

6 minutes ago, swebby said:

I suspect this may well be the case, but it is important to caveat it with this figure is based on an assumption that there is a very large number of unreported mild cases.  This is a fair assumption but an assumption none the less.  Reported case numbers are predominantly telling a very different story.

I will add that based on what i am seeing in the US, this story is likely to look even worse over the next few weeks.  It is starting to look that they may have transmission in a number of communities with little testing to confirm actual case numbers. This is Iran all over again where the number of deaths may well suggest a very high mortality ratio, except the US is five times the size....

[weirpig]

Love or loath him  Klopps response  to the virus  when asked 

 

[Summer Sun]

All primary schools in Delhi, India, are closing until the start of March.

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Love or loath him  Klopps response  to the virus  when asked 

 

I make him 100% right on this. 

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

All primary schools in Delhi, India, are closing until the start of March.

I didn't realise the virus was present there, isn't it a little warm for it. If it spreads there it might be a not stop here after spring. 

[thundercrazy]

I am certainly no expert so please don't shoot me down, a genuine question. 

If there are currently two different strains of this virus circulating and you contract and recover from one of them would you be immune to the other?

If not then would that suggest there lies the possibility of a second round for some?

[swebby]

5 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I didn't realise the virus was present there, isn't it a little warm for it. If it spreads there it might be a not stop here after spring. 

India/Pakistan/Bangladesh is the nightmare scenario far as i'm concerned.

Someone posted the other day a blog by either a Chinese or US virologist that the virus struggles in the open air with temperatures in the mid twenties. No idea if true, but if the case would be a very good thing for the sub continent.

[weirpig]

All this going on  and a escalation of the migrants entering Greece  one wonders how this year will end.

BREAKING | Turkey to deploy special forces to Greek border to prevent Athens pushing migrants back - minister https://sptnkne.ws/B9E7

[Azazel]

6 minutes ago, thundercrazy said:

I am certainly no expert so please don't shoot me down, a genuine question. 

If there are currently two different strains of this virus circulating and you contract and recover from one of them would you be immune to the other?

If not then would that suggest there lies the possibility of a second round for some?

I believe there is an L strain and an S strain? Not sure which is the more severe but if I remember rightly, they reported that the more severe strain was less common and the milder strain was more infectious and outpacing the other.

It would suggest you can be infected twice, once by the two different strains. I believe a person was tested in China or Japan and found to have both strains.

[DAVID SNOW]

19 minutes ago, swebby said:

I will add that based on what i am seeing in the US, this story is likely to look even worse over the next few weeks.  It is starting to look that they may have transmission in a number of communities with little testing to confirm actual case numbers. This is Iran all over again where the number of deaths may well suggest a very high mortality ratio, except the US is five times the size....

The figures given by the CMO were for the UK , 1% probably less.

I will go with what he says.

[thundercrazy]

Just now, Azazel said:

I believe there is an L strain and an S strain? Not sure which is the more severe but if I remember rightly, they reported that the more severe strain was less common and the milder strain was more infectious and outpacing the other.

It would suggest you can be infected twice, once by the two different strains. I believe a person was tested in China or Japan and found to have both strains.

Well I wish I hadn't asked now, could that explain the higher fatality rate currently seen in some areas and why the WHO have increased the estimated fatality rate to 3.4%?

[Summer Sun]

UK remains in the containment phase for now. Any change to delay phase will be announced publically. 

 

[Azazel]

7 minutes ago, thundercrazy said:

Well I wish I hadn't asked now, could that explain the higher fatality rate currently seen in some areas and why the WHO have increased the estimated fatality rate to 3.4%?

Possibly, I wouldn't like to say.

The mortality rate is a strange one for me, because it can be worked out using a million different factors and you get a different result each time. It also doesn't account for the number of people infected who haven't been included in the officially confirmed cases.

A good miniature "case study" would be the Diamond Princess cruise ship where  they managed to test everyone on board (3,711 people) - 706 were confirmed as suffering from the Coronavirus. 6 of these died which gives a fatality rate of 0.85 percent. This could also actually be skewed a little by the demographic on the ship (a lot of old people like cruises).

 

edit: The caveat being not everyone has recovered yet and there could be further deaths over the coming weeks.

Edited March 5, 2020 by Azazel

[Dami]

34 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I sincerely hope there are hundreds of thousands of cases we dont know about - that would suggest the virus is very mild in the vast majority of cases.

The thing is if it's mild how do you know you have it? I have had a very strange virus - started out of no where i might add - Just feeling ill and light headed, with stomach pain. It took maybe a week for for me to 'feel better' A day after i had felt better, Christmas eve, I got a sudden headache, pain above my nose and had to take painkillers to even face Christmas day. When that got better, guess what -out of no where- I came home from the school run, blamed a runny nose on a cold wind and within an hour*bang* temperature, achy, sneezing enough for me to spend 2 days in bed. When that got better I ended up with a sore throat and a bit of a cough, although generally didn't feel overly ill. 

My child also had this, and funny enough when hubs went on a Business trip his driver said he had been off work for a week with the exact symptoms. MY child however was given advice over 111 to go to hospital within 6 hours (very scary) to be checked out. Thankfully 2 more days off school and she was better.  

I doubt it was the Corona virus, I mean how could it of been? I hadn't been away from home and no where considered at risk. maybe there's more than one nasty virus out there and i was lucky?

you just don't know.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

49 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I sincerely hope there are hundreds of thousands of cases we dont know about - that would suggest the virus is very mild in the vast majority of cases.

You have hit the nail on the head there mate... Just how many folk over the last few weeks have felt lousy, heavy cold, mild flu! And have now recovered!! Plenty of people would indeed have had this virus without feeling to bad, so they would have never seeked medical attention due to it! I can recall major flu outbreaks in certain areas over the years, where I've heard some say they were bed ridden for 2 weeks!! Others saying they felt much better after 3 or 4 days. Has individuals we all have rather complex immune systems, some of our systems will over react to a virus, and basically go haywire. In some folks our immune system will actually fight against us... Auto immune syndromes. Some individuals will have very healthy immune systems with a rather high red blood cell count, meaning they fight infection much more productively than others. I actually know people who haven't been ill for years, and I mean many years! No colds, virus or anything, I also no people that catch every ailment known to man every year!! A good thing to point out here, would be to keep with a clean diet with adequate rest and recovery! Worth considering Vitamin C supplements with added zinc to!! These for me are wonderful things in many ways. Not only do they help supercharge your immune system, they even help prevent sunburn to! Bare in mind if you smoke, your body literally destroys 30mg of vit C per cigarette!! So 20 a day would amount to 600mg a day being destroyed, that's alot more than people even have to start with in there diet... A good starting point for a smoker would be 1000mg daily.. And being as your body does not store this vitamin, no need to stress over taking to much! Stay healthy Netweather I would be lost without you. 

Edited March 5, 2020 by Mattwolves

[pip22]

BNO Newsroom

@BNODesk·32s

BREAKING: South Africa reports first case of coronavirus

[Azazel]

1 minute ago, Dami said:

The thing is if it's mild how do you know you have it? I have had a very strange virus - started out of no where i might add - Just feeling ill and light headed, with stomach pain. It took maybe a week for for me to 'feel better' A day after i had felt better, Christmas eve, I got a sudden headache, pain above my nose and had to take painkillers to even face Christmas day. When that got better, guess what -out of no where- I came home from the school run, blamed a runny nose on a cold wind and within an hour*bang* temperature, achy, sneezing enough for me to spend 2 days in bed. When that got better I ended up with a sore throat and a bit of a cough, although generally didn't feel overly ill. 

My child also had this, and funny enough when hubs went on a Business trip his driver said he had been off work for a week with the exact symptoms. MY child however was given advice over 111 to go to hospital within 6 hours (very scary) to be checked out. Thankfully 2 more days off school and she was better.  

I doubt it was the Corona virus, I mean how could it of been? I hadn't been away from home and no where considered at risk. maybe there's more than one nasty virus out there and i was lucky?

you just don't know.

 

As speculated earlier in the thread by myself and others, Covid has actually been silently circulating the country since probably late last year (November being an estimate).

It's impossible to tell whether we have already had it or not, short of having blood-work done. 

The virus you describe sounds kind of similar to another poster's experience re. "pain above the nose" (likely sinus pressure) - however sneezing, runny nose and sore throat sounds more like a bad cold. 

In conclusion, it's very unlikely to have been the coronavirus, however it's not impossible.

[Azazel]

4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

You have hit the nail on the head there mate... Just how many folk over the last few weeks have felt lousy, heavy cold, mild flu! And have now recovered!! Plenty of people would indeed have had this virus without feeling to bad, so they would have never seeked medical attention due to it! I can recall major flu outbreaks in certain areas over the years, where I've heard some say they were bed ridden for 2 weeks!! Others saying they felt much better after 3 or 4 days. Has individuals we all have rather complex immune systems, some of our systems will over react to a virus, and basically go haywire. In some folks our immune system will actually fight against us... Auto immune syndromes. Some individuals will have very healthy immune systems with a rather high red blood cell count, meaning they fight infection much more productively than others. I actually know people who haven't been ill for years, and I mean many years! No colds, virus or anything, I also no people that catch every ailment known to man every year!! A good thing to point out here, would be to keep with a clean diet with adequate rest and recovery! Worth considering Vitamin C supplements with added zinc to!! These for me are wonderful things in many ways. Not only do they help supercharge your immune system, they even help prevent sunburn to! Bare in mind if you smoke, your body literally destroys 30mg of vit C per cigarette!! So 20 a day would amount to 600mg a day being destroyed, that's alot more than people even have to start with in there diet... A good starting point for a smoker would be 1000mg daily.. And being as your body does not store this vitamin, no need to stress over taking to much! Stay healthy Netweather I would be lost without you. 

I smoke, unfortunately (filthy habit I know)

I do drink an effervescent multi-vitamin drink every morning though so fingers crossed I don't have a vitamin C deficit. I'm trying currently to get my doctor to prescribe me some more Vitamin D - 1/ it hasn't been sunny here for 7 months and 2/ to give my immune system another boost.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

I smoke, unfortunately (filthy habit I know)

I do drink an effervescent multi-vitamin drink every morning though so fingers crossed I don't have a vitamin C deficit. I'm trying currently to get my doctor to prescribe me some more Vitamin D - 1/ it hasn't been sunny here for 7 months and 2/ to give my immune system another boost.

Good idea mate, cod liver oil capsules also effective, and for those worrying over lack of sunlight for vit D production... No1 a sunbed won't help, and no2, full fat milk a very good choice for vit D... Forget skimmed has most of it gets destroyed when they treat it. 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I smoke, unfortunately (filthy habit I know)

I do drink an effervescent multi-vitamin drink every morning though so fingers crossed I don't have a vitamin C deficit. I'm trying currently to get my doctor to prescribe me some more Vitamin D - 1/ it hasn't been sunny here for 7 months and 2/ to give my immune system another boost.

Whilst vitamin D shortage is a hazard of living in a northerly latitude, so deficits are bound to be a problem, you can obtain more than enough vitamin C from eating fruit & vegetables, drinking fruit juice...

As for getting your doctor to prescribe vit-D supplements, most supermarkets (not health-food shops!) have them on-sale for less than the cost of a prescription...but without any of the hassle...?

[Dami]

17 minutes ago, Azazel said:

As speculated earlier in the thread by myself and others, Covid has actually been silently circulating the country since probably late last year (November being an estimate).

It's impossible to tell whether we have already had it or not, short of having blood-work done. 

The virus you describe sounds kind of similar to another poster's experience re. "pain above the nose" (likely sinus pressure) - however sneezing, runny nose and sore throat sounds more like a bad cold. 

In conclusion, it's very unlikely to have been the coronavirus, however it's not impossible.

The first round wasn't a cold i can assure you that and at the grand old age of 48 I have had plenty of colds, enough to say that even when I would of considered myself 'coldy' it was quite different to the colds I had in my youth, (ie started with a major thirst, sore throat and just knowing you had a cold coming, over a few days )these illness were in your face within hours. 

I think Corona virus is just the start. I know that someone in Bubs class went to Iceland before Christmas, was back a day, then was off sick for 3 days. A few days later bubs was complaining of feeling dizzy and stomach ache then i got it. Not saying we caught anything form them, but if you think an airport driver had had the same illness...an illness i have never had quite like before.

Just to think all these people saying being vegan and do this and the other 'to save the planet'

When all it could take is one person not bothering to wash their hands or be respectful when they cough or sneeze or use a bathroom.

Think how many people in the world are like that? How many wouldn't care?

more than enough.

 

 

 

Edited March 5, 2020 by Dami